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I figure, on a day like today, everyone and his uncle will be running into the safety of bonds. (Watching Bloomberg, my idea was confirmed. Today, bonds were an extremely crowded trade. Yields will be falling, even if gradually, while bond share prices rise due to the popularity.) I decided to take advantage of the "sale" going on, and so rather than get into my intended core-plus fund TODAY, I would be better off picking up shares in BHB. It's fallen -7.75% in the past 5 days---after quite a nice run-up. Sticking with it.
Yields will be falling, even if gradually, while bond share prices rise
My favorite place to be with bonds, being falling yields = rising prices, this is when the money is made in this sector.
No argument here. I just made the choice to grab some more equity shares at a pretty darn good price. I already hold 40% bonds--- though my junk fell today, because junk's performance is so often in tandem with stocks. (WCPNX, my next target, was up over 1% today. Amazing.)
In our joint account today we bought some PRSNX and placed an order for RCTIX for Monday from funds in our TRP MM fund. Also considering adding RSIIX.
Strangest thing, I tried to place the order for RCTIX during the day and got a message that said something like the order didn't meet a contractual agreement that I took as between the fund and TRP? When I tried to place the order after hours, it took. Hmmmm?
I guess it depends on your definition of ”dip”. Both the NASDAQ and S&P are still up more than 20% over the last 12 months. Both are ahead by 12% YTD. Not all “dips” are created equal.
FALN was flat on the day. My other two junk funds were up a touch. Everything else was down--- except TS Tenaris--- which bucked its own trend. Still down -13% with that bugger.
FWIW, I picked up a 20 year corporate bond from Deutsch Bank at 6%. It won't be called for at least 2 years (aug. '26), so I'll take the higher return with the expectation it will inevitably be called in 2026.
Deutsche Bank Aktien 6% 08/16/2044 Callable CUSIP: 25161FXT0
Yesterday I put on a 5-strike combo spread on ALT expiring in Jan 26 as a totally speculatitive play for potential gains should their GLP-1 competitor keep showing good promise and/or if a big pharma player decides to take them out. Downside risk $5000, unlimited upside if it happens, so it's a viable risk/reward for this kind of trade. (for speculative trades, I hope for the best, but would be happy with getting out at 'breakeven' if necessary.)
@hank- now it's important to realize that the bank bond we're referring to has no FDIC or other government backing- it's a regular commercial bond, with Deutsche Bank having an "A" rating, which isn't the top rating. So it can't be directly compared to CDs or Treasuries as far as safety. But it should be just fine, I would have considered something like that also, but we're a fair amount older than Mike, and 20 years is a long time if by some miracle they don't call it in a couple of years.
Absolutely correct @Old_Joe. Good points made. I am taking some risk with this play, but I don't put a high percentage in investments like this. I play the higher yield game with Gov Agency bonds too. Again, with money I'm able to risk to get higher yields versus a CD or treasury. But hey, that's what bonds are for.
Looking to replace MMKT funds and still try for 5% per year after rates are reduced, with low volatility. RSIVX (RSIIX)and RPHYX (RPHIX) are getting initiated, and will sit next to HMEZX and CBLDX. Boring is desirable in this bucket.
Bought a tiny speculative short-term S&P short position based soley on a gut feeling looking at the chart. As usual, the potential loss on such position is roughly equal to a steak dinner in Georgetown
Also getting closer to starting a few new positions, mostly in utes.
”Bought a tiny speculative short-term S&P short position based soley on a gut feeling looking at the chart. As usual, the potential loss on such position is roughly equal to a steak dinner in Georgetown”.
Wow - @rforno. That’s a “gutsy” move. Hope it works for you. I don’t know what steak dinners in Georgetown cost. Wondering how many bottles of Glenfiddich the potential loss might equal?
WOW - @rforno. That’s a “gutsy” move. I don’t know what steak dinners in Georgetown cost.Wondering how many bottles of Glenfiddich the potential loss might be … ?
Where we go, around $500 (including the expected overpriced booze).
Maybe 6 bottles of Glenfiddich, depending on the year.
Comments
Strangest thing, I tried to place the order for RCTIX during the day and got a message that said something like the order didn't meet a contractual agreement that I took as between the fund and TRP? When I tried to place the order after hours, it took. Hmmmm?
My other two junk funds were up a touch. Everything else was down--- except TS Tenaris--- which bucked its own trend. Still down -13% with that bugger.
Deutsche Bank Aktien 6% 08/16/2044 Callable
CUSIP: 25161FXT0
Reduced BIVIX and TRAIX to a minimal level to keep a "foot in the door"
Increased ZROZ and started a new position in INTC.
Looking at increasing positions in QLEIX, QMNIX and CPIEX.
The Fed should just leave the darn rates alone.
Also getting closer to starting a few new positions, mostly in utes.
dMaybe 6 bottles of Glenfiddich, depending on the year.
Locally, Glenfiddich 12 is going for $55.
Duck-fat fries and 3 different house dipping sauces, YES!!