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Glad to see Mr. Market rising. My holdings don't follow the crowd on most days, anyhow. Letting my winners run. They've been throttled back for way too long. PRFDX stands out. It's in the IRA. Hope @Derf is feeling better.
(I’m moving these comments first made in the euphoric markets thread to the “Buy / Sell” thread instead where they better belong.)
Sold all 3 stocks owned Friday. NSRGY: Averaged IN @$102 / OUT @$105.50. Decent 7-week gain. Also sold GHC and CNS which I reported buying on June 26. Both had risen 8-10% since I bought them (not bad for 17 days). Tired of the toys for now. Funds are so much easier to work with and vastly less risky. I think the first 2 stocks mentioned above have further to run. The third (CNS) appears to be overvalued - unless it’s under consideration as an acquisition - as is sometimes rumored.
Proceeds went to open a stake in GAA , a Cambria fund managed by Meb Faber, who also runs an etf with the symbol ”TOKE”. (What could possibly go wrong here?)
Added - I have also gradually reduced my equity exposure (as determined by Fido’s screener) from 45% a few weeks ago to about 37% as of today.
More importantly, it speaks to the desirability of holding / trading equities inside a tax-sheltered account. Otherwise there would be serious tax consequences.
Opened a new position in FPNIX. Appreciate their focus on Securitized bond investments to offset my individual treasuries and corporate bond funds. Also added to DW’s RSIIX in T-IRA.
Sold my large holding of CMS preferreds at breakeven. They were bouncing all over the place in large ways in recent weeks (moreso than any other preferred I've owned) and more to the point, Schwab never could get the income projections or cost basis right on them, which was annoying me no end.
Also in the process of selling HESM for 10% or so gains. Lots of insider selling due to the CVX-HES merger and uncertainty over how the CVX-HESM relationship might look once the HES deal goes through.
Both turned out to be short-term trades.
Money going into SGOV until I find other uses for it in the QDI space.
Collecting dividends. Not buying. Seems to me the best thing is to grow cash and buy on a pullback. No pullback? Fine with me. BCE Bell Canada held back 15% of divvie for Canada tax. I can live with it. (15 July.) Divvie was smaller than expected. M* is surely using CAD numbers. Now I know.
May buy VONG on pullback, certainly on a serious one. Or VONE. Am v v happy with +10% growth in positions taken in QLTY and JQUA at Fido (ML prohibits buying the former and does not allow reinvest w the latter!) months ago on pullback. Would that I had put in 5x.
Sold 1/3 of my of FNMA position and added to BMQSX. The dry powder is piling up. SPHQ or JQUA (as mentioned by Mr. Moran) are funds on the watchlist, but the majority are appearing overbought. Even boring stalwarts such as SCHD, DIVO, or EVT have an RSI registering as such.
I think I'll just sit and wait for a bit. The muni's should gather a nice price increase while kicking off a fairly respectable taxable equivalent yield.
I think I'll just sit and wait for a bit. The muni's should gather a nice price increase while kicking off a fairly respectable taxable equivalent yield.
Account cash moved into SGOV. Heading out of town soon and not planning to buy anything unless the markets tank hard ... and I prefer Schwab not profit much (if any) from my idle cash.
Bought back the shares of NSRGY I sold 10-12 days ago. Essentially same price. The price action has been a lot better over ensuing time. To make room I cut my corporate bond CEF (WEA) in half so that each holding equals just 5% of portfolio.
If you have access to Barron’s, these recent articles are better qualified to address your question than I am. I’ve provided only brief excerpts from the longer narratives,
- Barron’s May 17, 2024 Andrew Barry writing: “Despair Is Turning to Hope. - The world’s largest food company has been a sleeping giant. It’s waking up—making its shares attractive once again.”
- Barron’s July 12, 2024 - Rajiv Jain: ” … Nestlé is an interesting turnaround story. The CEO, Mark Schneider, is transforming the culture, and turning Nestlé into a hungrier, nimbler organization…. The company doesn’t appear to have a structural problem. … The stock is attractively valued … .”
What I like is (1) The company is flush with cash. (2) Consumer staples tend to hold up better during recessions and in that respect may complement a bond allocation, (3) It’s a potential inflation hedge, being domiciled in Swiss Francs.
P/E 22 / EPS $4.71 / Yield 2.08% / Market Cap $273 B
In the IRA: Closed out NUSC and FSNDX. Gave a ten percent bump to XMHQ and FDSVX. I don't expect to be making additional purchases on the equity side at current prices.
I continue to mull bond funds. Any new fund will have to have had a better than zero return in 2022 and 2020. It will also have to be doing better that the money market sweep account over the last week, month, three-month period. I don't feel the need to do anything in a hurry on that front. I don't feel the need to add to MNHAX, THOPX, or WCPNX at the present time. They don't meet the criteria described at the beginning of this graf; they're just little toes dangling in the water.
In the taxable: Nothing shaking but the leaves on the trees.
Is P/E 22 the new P/E 12! Seems like everything worth owning these days is P/E 20+.
If it is a turnaround story, P/E is likely to be high and I can overlook P/E.
Mark Schneider has been there for 7 years. I am surprised he has not turned the ship around. He did a great job at Fresenius (my client many moons ago).
I did not think any company could be a bigger mess than GE (of course, until I saw BA). Larry took over GE only in 2018 and it probably took him 4 years to turn that lump of coal into a diamond.
I am a sucker for turnaround stories. I have to learn more about NSRGY story: what is the trigger and the time frame for the trigger. If you happen to have the answers, please share.
I do not have access to Barrons.
I just took an initial position to do more research.
Edit: do you hold your position in a taxable account to make use of the foreign tax credit of withholding taxes on dividends?
For some reason I spotted XMMO, the Invesco MC momentum fund, dancing across the bottom of my TV screen. This fund has been outperforming for nearly three years, catching and passing XMHQ this year. M* cites 136% turnover and a current allocation of 42% to industrials, a large over weight. The frequent trading has not been reflected in increased distributions in the last couple of years, a problem we've noted with XMHQ.
When I try on M* to find out who the managers are, at least the ones responsible for every-day matters, Invesco lists 4 people who are also responsible for just about every equity ETF that Invesco sponsors. I wonder how the "real" managers determine what stocks are candidates for inclusion.
I confess to having chopped a lot out of my earlier response as I’m hardly qualified to comment on individual stocks. Hope the remaining comments re NSRGY are adequate. I’d never want to defend a buy or sell.
Re “Turn-Around” stories … While Barron’s comments on that aspect, that it isn’t why I own it. Nor do I normally look to Barron’s for investing ideas. The 3 reasons I stated earlier stand. I watched NSRGY gain 2% one day last week while U.S. large caps fell into the dumpster. That gave me confidence to buy back in. Investing is a gamble!
No access to Barron’s? Sorry to hear that. There are some good resellers that can provide economical budget access. I’m in the 1st year of a 3 year subscription.
Please check if XMMO is a passive fund that follows an index and how much discretion the managers have to deviate from the index. Please feel free to post your research and related links (e.g., link to fund site). I would make it easy for others to help if you would like others to engage. I have not looked into the fund.
@BenWP, I like this site for descriptions of ETF's. Since XMMO runs on specific rules I would think it would only need competent attendants. Nota bene: It has only been running on these rules for five years.
You are correct about recent performance. It's a little too bumpy for me for the IRA. I don't feel the need in the taxable since I was able to get into VSMIX.
@hank, You never need to defend what you do with your money. If I ask questions, it is because either I am trying to learn or spur thoughts for (help) the person I am asking questions of. No other motive.
I am solely responsible for my actions. You never need to worry about what I do with the information you share.
I don’t buy the turnaround story. What turnaround? LOL. The stock got overpriced a few years ago when consumer staples were hot as investments. Topped out over $135 in January 2022 and then began falling, dipping briefly below $100 about 5 or 6 weeks ago. Adding to the decline has been a very hot dollar which has appreciated for years now against the franc and other global currencies. If someone isn’t interested in taking a gambit on currencies they should avoid buying foreign stocks unless there’s some currency hedging.
Also hurting has been the fear among investors “weight-loss” drugs will reduce the value of food companies. Perhaps well placed. But this misses that NSRGY is much larger than food, being in many consumer staples like pet food, bottled waters, cosmetics. List of Nestlie brands
I bought in at around $102 a month or so ago. Sold at $105.54 10-12 days back. Jumped in at $105.62 this morning. My cash is mostly in a TOD account. Buying something in an IRA requires selling another security first. So, I really don’t have the luxury of sitting on a limit order for long because the security I sold might go out of reach. To me, whether I have 5% sitting in NSRGY or in an intermediate-long duration bond fund is of little consequence. If anything, a 10-year duration bond fund is probably more volatile than this stock and with a more limited return potential.
@hank, Thanks for the additional insight into your thinking, including consumer staple substitution for long bonds. I like your skeptical take on what you read from fund manager and Barron. I agree that if someone is at it for 7.5 yrs and still has not completed the job, may be the job needs to be redefined!
@BaluBalu. The Invesco site is a bit thin on explaining methodology. However, the fund’s universe is the S&P Mid Cap 400, from which are chosen semi-annually some 80 stocks that exhibit characteristics of “momentum,” or rising prices. Not terribly surprising.
Overlap with XMHQ is 52%, quite a lot. Thanks to @WABAC for reminding me to check ETFRC. Applying rules twice a year obviously does not require a lot of attention. Still, I wonder how that process results in a T.O. ratio of 132.
My thoughts about the dollar have “adjusted” a bit over the past 10 days. Over that brief period a leading Presidential candidate was nearly assassinated; a President and sole contender for renomination was quarantined with Covid and then a day or two later inexplicably dropped out of the race; the current VP became the leading Democratic Presidential candidate and the Director of the CIA Secret Service resigned under fire. (Fodder enough for a TV series.)
There is at least a remote possibility these unusual happenings (and a hotly contested election in which one candidate advocates for greater executive control over the Federal Reserve / interest rates) may conceivably and ultimately affect the dollar on the foreign exchanges. But it won’t happen overnight. I won’t connect the dots here. But there are plenty of dots running in various directions for anyone paying attention. To those perhaps wondering why I ”reversed-course” and bought back into a Swiss domiciled company’s stock I’d sold only 10-12 days earlier - this may help explain.
Comments
Sold all 3 stocks owned Friday. NSRGY: Averaged IN @$102 / OUT @$105.50. Decent 7-week gain. Also sold GHC and CNS which I reported buying on June 26. Both had risen 8-10% since I bought them (not bad for 17 days). Tired of the toys for now. Funds are so much easier to work with and vastly less risky. I think the first 2 stocks mentioned above have further to run. The third (CNS) appears to be overvalued - unless it’s under consideration as an acquisition - as is sometimes rumored.
Proceeds went to open a stake in GAA , a Cambria fund managed by Meb Faber, who also runs an etf with the symbol ”TOKE”. (What could possibly go wrong here?)
Added - I have also gradually reduced my equity exposure (as determined by Fido’s screener) from 45% a few weeks ago to about 37% as of today.
That's a nice short-term profit!
I would liquidate a certain mutual fund in my taxable account
but this really doesn't make sense after taxes are considered.
Also in the process of selling HESM for 10% or so gains. Lots of insider selling due to the CVX-HES merger and uncertainty over how the CVX-HESM relationship might look once the HES deal goes through.
Both turned out to be short-term trades.
Money going into SGOV until I find other uses for it in the QDI space.
I think I'll just sit and wait for a bit. The muni's should gather a nice price increase while kicking off a fairly respectable taxable equivalent yield.
A quick read can be found at this link. I guess it's out out of copyright.
LOL - Groundhog Day
Curious why Nestle?
- Barron’s May 17, 2024 Andrew Barry writing: “Despair Is Turning to Hope. - The world’s largest food company has been a sleeping giant. It’s waking up—making its shares attractive once again.”
- Barron’s July 12, 2024 - Rajiv Jain: ” … Nestlé is an interesting turnaround story. The CEO, Mark Schneider, is transforming the culture, and turning Nestlé into a hungrier, nimbler organization…. The company doesn’t appear to have a structural problem. … The stock is attractively valued … .”
What I like is (1) The company is flush with cash. (2) Consumer staples tend to hold up better during recessions and in that respect may complement a bond allocation, (3) It’s a potential inflation hedge, being domiciled in Swiss Francs.
P/E 22 / EPS $4.71 / Yield 2.08% / Market Cap $273 B
I continue to mull bond funds. Any new fund will have to have had a better than zero return in 2022 and 2020. It will also have to be doing better that the money market sweep account over the last week, month, three-month period. I don't feel the need to do anything in a hurry on that front. I don't feel the need to add to MNHAX, THOPX, or WCPNX at the present time. They don't meet the criteria described at the beginning of this graf; they're just little toes dangling in the water.
In the taxable: Nothing shaking but the leaves on the trees.
Is P/E 22 the new P/E 12! Seems like everything worth owning these days is P/E 20+.
If it is a turnaround story, P/E is likely to be high and I can overlook P/E.
Mark Schneider has been there for 7 years. I am surprised he has not turned the ship around. He did a great job at Fresenius (my client many moons ago).
I did not think any company could be a bigger mess than GE (of course, until I saw BA). Larry took over GE only in 2018 and it probably took him 4 years to turn that lump of coal into a diamond.
I am a sucker for turnaround stories. I have to learn more about NSRGY story: what is the trigger and the time frame for the trigger. If you happen to have the answers, please share.
I do not have access to Barrons.
I just took an initial position to do more research.
Edit: do you hold your position in a taxable account to make use of the foreign tax credit of withholding taxes on dividends?
For some reason I spotted XMMO, the Invesco MC momentum fund, dancing across the bottom of my TV screen. This fund has been outperforming for nearly three years, catching and passing XMHQ this year. M* cites 136% turnover and a current allocation of 42% to industrials, a large over weight. The frequent trading has not been reflected in increased distributions in the last couple of years, a problem we've noted with XMHQ.
When I try on M* to find out who the managers are, at least the ones responsible for every-day matters, Invesco lists 4 people who are also responsible for just about every equity ETF that Invesco sponsors. I wonder how the "real" managers determine what stocks are candidates for inclusion.
I confess to having chopped a lot out of my earlier response as I’m hardly qualified to comment on individual stocks. Hope the remaining comments re NSRGY are adequate. I’d never want to defend a buy or sell.
Re “Turn-Around” stories … While Barron’s comments on that aspect, that it isn’t why I own it. Nor do I normally look to Barron’s for investing ideas. The 3 reasons I stated earlier stand. I watched NSRGY gain 2% one day last week while U.S. large caps fell into the dumpster. That gave me confidence to buy back in. Investing is a gamble!
No access to Barron’s? Sorry to hear that. There are some good resellers that can provide economical budget access. I’m in the 1st year of a 3 year subscription.
Thanks again for your inquiry.
Please check if XMMO is a passive fund that follows an index and how much discretion the managers have to deviate from the index. Please feel free to post your research and related links (e.g., link to fund site). I would make it easy for others to help if you would like others to engage. I have not looked into the fund.
I always check the "comps" on ETF's at this site.
You are correct about recent performance. It's a little too bumpy for me for the IRA. I don't feel the need in the taxable since I was able to get into VSMIX.
@hank, You never need to defend what you do with your money. If I ask questions, it is because either I am trying to learn or spur thoughts for (help) the person I am asking questions of. No other motive.
I am solely responsible for my actions. You never need to worry about what I do with the information you share.
Please see the Edit in my last post.
I don’t buy the turnaround story. What turnaround? LOL. The stock got overpriced a few years ago when consumer staples were hot as investments. Topped out over $135 in January 2022 and then began falling, dipping briefly below $100 about 5 or 6 weeks ago. Adding to the decline has been a very hot dollar which has appreciated for years now against the franc and other global currencies. If someone isn’t interested in taking a gambit on currencies they should avoid buying foreign stocks unless there’s some currency hedging.
Also hurting has been the fear among investors “weight-loss” drugs will reduce the value of food companies. Perhaps well placed. But this misses that NSRGY is much larger than food, being in many consumer staples like pet food, bottled waters, cosmetics.
List of Nestlie brands
I bought in at around $102 a month or so ago. Sold at $105.54 10-12 days back. Jumped in at $105.62 this morning. My cash is mostly in a TOD account. Buying something in an IRA requires selling another security first. So, I really don’t have the luxury of sitting on a limit order for long because the security I sold might go out of reach. To me, whether I have 5% sitting in NSRGY or in an intermediate-long duration bond fund is of little consequence. If anything, a 10-year duration bond fund is probably more volatile than this stock and with a more limited return potential.
Happy investing!
" I’m just touchy. Sorry."
Completely understandable.
Overlap with XMHQ is 52%, quite a lot. Thanks to @WABAC for reminding me to check ETFRC. Applying rules twice a year obviously does not require a lot of attention. Still, I wonder how that process results in a T.O. ratio of 132.
https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?audienceType=Investor&ticker=XMMO
My thoughts about the dollar have “adjusted” a bit over the past 10 days. Over that brief period a leading Presidential candidate was nearly assassinated; a President and sole contender for renomination was quarantined with Covid and then a day or two later inexplicably dropped out of the race; the current VP became the leading Democratic Presidential candidate and the Director of the
CIASecret Service resigned under fire. (Fodder enough for a TV series.)There is at least a remote possibility these unusual happenings (and a hotly contested election in which one candidate advocates for greater executive control over the Federal Reserve / interest rates) may conceivably and ultimately affect the dollar on the foreign exchanges. But it won’t happen overnight. I won’t connect the dots here. But there are plenty of dots running in various directions for anyone paying attention. To those perhaps wondering why I ”reversed-course” and bought back into a Swiss domiciled company’s stock I’d sold only 10-12 days earlier - this may help explain.
(Thanks @Catch22 for spotting the error.)