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Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
Added to CELG a hair under $100. Was limit down -20%, now -2.8%. Added to BPY, GILD. Some of the moves today were ridiculous and not just in high multiple names, but CVS, WAG, GE, VZ were down well into double digits at the open.
Humm ... Fortunately I only allow myself to mess with 25% of my holdings. The "protected" 75% mix is pretty stable, having fallen only 1.12% Friday. In the "play" part I still have some dry powder - but can't decide whether I want to release any today or not.
There's a funny line in "Gatsby" to the effect: "Dan Cody sober knew well what Dan Cody drunk might do." So he established elaborate safeguards to prevent causing damage when out of control. These included having a jail aboard his yacht where his crew might confine him when necessary.
Maybe similar safeguards are needed to prevent impulsive moves on days like this?
Many of the prices today at/near the lows were illusions and because of bid/ask spreads etc were only available if you were investing in a make believe account.
I wonder if this dramatic open will be called a flash crash. In the past there was at least one occasion where the trades were cancelled after the fact.
Sure seems like a flash crash to me similar to May 2011. I had trouble logging on to my Scottrade account after the open.
I wonder if this dramatic open will be called a flash crash. In the past there was at least one occasion where the trades were cancelled after the fact.
But I'm a bit concerned that if oil and other commodities can fall 60-70% over such a short time, than I won't rule out a similar 60+% drop across global equities. In that case: Last one out please turn off the lights.
And the 10-year below 2% this late in the game? Mind-blowing.
I've seen EM-induced world sell-offs like this before. So I think something like the flash crash of 87 is more likely. That entailed a 25% drop in U.S. equities (in a single day).
For comparison: A 25% drop from peak would put the Dow at about 13,500 A 60% drop would put it at about 7200 - still above the '09 low.
Scott - I like that sign, but they need a bigger one.
"In that case: Last one out please turn off the lights."
Oh, absolutely. If there's another 2008, then - as I've noted before, CNBC will be hosted by tumbleweeds. You will absolutely not get the average investor back - for years.
The average investor is the one that is getting obliterated already - I mean, look at the recent moves in FB, DIS, NFLX and all of the similar stocks that retail is absorbed by.
"In that case: Last one out please turn off the lights."
Oh, absolutely. If there's another 2008, then - as I've noted before, CNBC will be hosted by tumbleweeds. You will absolutely not get the average investor back - for years.
The average investor is the one that is getting obliterated already - I mean, look at the recent moves in FB, DIS, NFLX and all of the similar stocks that retail is absorbed by.
Biotech - XBI in bear market territory down over 20% and IBB not quite there down over 17%. And I am not using today's lows but where we are trading at as I post this.
Many of the prices today at/near the lows were illusions and because of bid/ask spreads etc were only available if you were investing in a make believe account.
Many Vanguard ETFs had trading suspended during the first hour this morning. All had huge bid/ask spreads and were down -30% or more. When trading in these ETFs resumed, they were down in the -3% to -5% range. It would have been impossible to trade at the lows, so these huge spikes down were certainly untradable illusions, at least for the average trader.
I sold all SNTIX and RYPMX on Friday. I tried to sell VWAHX on Friday, but couldn't due to a share-class conversion in progress. I sold BNDX and EDV this morning and will sell VWAHX today, and will be 100% in cash at today's market close. I'm too timid to be in markets this volatile.
Many of the prices today at/near the lows were illusions and because of bid/ask spreads etc were only available if you were investing in a make believe account.
Many Vanguard ETFs had trading suspended during the first hour this morning. All had huge bid/ask spreads and were down -30% or more. When trading in these ETFs resumed, they were down in the -3% to -5% range. It would have been impossible to trade at the lows, so these huge spikes down were certainly untradable illusions, at least for the average trader.
I sold all SNTIX and RYPMX on Friday. I tried to sell VWAHX on Friday, but couldn't due to a share-class conversion in progress. I sold BNDX and EDV this morning and will sell VWAHX today, and will be 100% in cash at today's market close. I'm too timid to be in markets this volatile.
Informative post on this morning's trading. Thanks. You have done well this year probably better than 99% here.
Old_Skeet is buying in some funds mostly in the growth area of family portfolios to round out some positions. I have not yet open a spiff (special investment) position, as I write; but, I just might before the day is out.
"Many of the prices today at/near the lows were illusions and because of bid/ask spreads etc were only available if you were investing in a make believe account. "
I had limit orders in at Schwab since last week for prices slightly above the day's lows and they didn't get filled.
Bought PG, PM and added to SO and CHSCL at the open. NGLS was compelling but opted for HQL and THQ additions.
Edited to add that VTR is still in the running for purchase. Trouble is that I'm somewhat overloaded on energy and REIT's but hey, they can always be sold.
Bought PG, PM and added to SO and CHSCL at the open. NGLS was compelling but opted for HQL and THQ additions.
I thought about THQ and HQL but just watched and missed the opportunity. Was a good opportunity, especially with THQ which was already trading at a significant discount to NAV (and yes, you have no idea if/when it will get to NAV, but I'm happy waiting with monthly dividends.)
I could not get the spiff open before the markets closed yesterday; however, my open buy orders for the mutual funds in family portfolios did fill yesterday rounding out some positions. As a long term investor I believe I did pick up some good value here as the S&P 500 Index has now pulled towards October 2014 lows (1890's/1870's range). I don't think that all is green though going forward as there is just not much energy to propel the markets upward until we get into October. And, then it is iffy as to what will transpire with earnings reporting for the third quarter. I am guessing that my equity allocation currently bubbles somewhere around north of 45% since the market pullback as it was around 50%, or so, at the close of July. I still plan to deploy some cash and open the spiff (special investment position) soon; and, then position cost average into a full spiff position raising my equity allocation upward to about 55% before fall arrives.
Understand my thingking and plans could change based upon market movement and some other things. Howerver, I am currently thinking this pullback and now correction remains a buying opportunity.
Completed purchase of GILD: 100@108, 100@106, 100@100. May buy a bit more when it gets down to $10.
Holding steady on everything else. I shoot for a mix of approx 50% of the S&P volatility, and so far so good: S&P -8% YTD, Portfolio -5.4%. Have been a bit better than the S&P all YTD, up and down. It works for me.
I have a tracking system set up in Morningstar's Portfolio Manager ...
Here are the year-to-date results that I follow. A 60%equity/40%bond portfolio down 3.7% ytd, Old_Skeet down 4.9% ytd, A S&P 500 Index fund down 7.2% ytd while the Index itself is down 8.1% ytd.
Seems my engineer buddy is still crowing as his simple 60/40 is currently ahead as I write for the short run while our returns are about the same for the five year period and for the ten year period I have bettred him by about 20%. Our special investment positions (spiffs) that we both have employed from time-to-time have improved both of our returns but are not reflected above.
It is interesting that Columbia'sThermostat Fund (CTFAX) is only down 0.8% ytd as I write and returned about the same as my engineer buddy and me for the five year period but betters my buddy's simple 60/40 and trails me for the ten year period.
The moral of all of this is that investing centers more around a marathon (extended) time frame rather than a (short) sprint thus allowing some long term investment strategies for some of the funds that I own time to work. So score me as a long term investor who from time-to-time will put a special investment position into motion when it is felt market conditions warrant to play the swing along with also using the traditional seasonal, Sell Down In May, strategy on part of my equity allocation; and, then raise my equity allocation come fall and play the traditional fall stock market rally that usually runs from fall on and through the winter months and usually last until late spring (May).
Bought a little of Brookfield BPY (thanks to all posters who mentioned this one) at 20 on Monday. Other than that, keeping some cash to buy widows n orphans stuff plucked from the Div Aristocrats when they swoon further. May add FBIOX to the mix, not sure it will look good in a Geezer Portfolio, but I like it. Stiff upper lips all, this is bound to get worse. Best, hawk
Comments
There's a funny line in "Gatsby" to the effect: "Dan Cody sober knew well what Dan Cody drunk might do." So he established elaborate safeguards to prevent causing damage when out of control. These included having a jail aboard his yacht where his crew might confine him when necessary.
Maybe similar safeguards are needed to prevent impulsive moves on days like this?
But I'm a bit concerned that if oil and other commodities can fall 60-70% over such a short time, than I won't rule out a similar 60+% drop across global equities. In that case: Last one out please turn off the lights.
And the 10-year below 2% this late in the game? Mind-blowing.
I've seen EM-induced world sell-offs like this before. So I think something like the flash crash of 87 is more likely. That entailed a 25% drop in U.S. equities (in a single day).
For comparison:
A 25% drop from peak would put the Dow at about 13,500
A 60% drop would put it at about 7200 - still above the '09 low.
Scott - I like that sign, but they need a bigger one.
Oh, absolutely. If there's another 2008, then - as I've noted before, CNBC will be hosted by tumbleweeds. You will absolutely not get the average investor back - for years.
The average investor is the one that is getting obliterated already - I mean, look at the recent moves in FB, DIS, NFLX and all of the similar stocks that retail is absorbed by.
I'm glad I got out of Fireeye (FEYE).
I sold all SNTIX and RYPMX on Friday. I tried to sell VWAHX on Friday, but couldn't due to a share-class conversion in progress. I sold BNDX and EDV this morning and will sell VWAHX today, and will be 100% in cash at today's market close. I'm too timid to be in markets this volatile.
I had limit orders in at Schwab since last week for prices slightly above the day's lows and they didn't get filled.
Edited to add that VTR is still in the running for purchase. Trouble is that I'm somewhat overloaded on energy and REIT's but hey, they can always be sold.
Understand my thingking and plans could change based upon market movement and some other things. Howerver, I am currently thinking this pullback and now correction remains a buying opportunity.
Holding steady on everything else. I shoot for a mix of approx 50% of the S&P volatility, and so far so good: S&P -8% YTD, Portfolio -5.4%. Have been a bit better than the S&P all YTD, up and down. It works for me.
I have a tracking system set up in Morningstar's Portfolio Manager ...
Here are the year-to-date results that I follow. A 60%equity/40%bond portfolio down 3.7% ytd, Old_Skeet down 4.9% ytd, A S&P 500 Index fund down 7.2% ytd while the Index itself is down 8.1% ytd.
Seems my engineer buddy is still crowing as his simple 60/40 is currently ahead as I write for the short run while our returns are about the same for the five year period and for the ten year period I have bettred him by about 20%. Our special investment positions (spiffs) that we both have employed from time-to-time have improved both of our returns but are not reflected above.
It is interesting that Columbia'sThermostat Fund (CTFAX) is only down 0.8% ytd as I write and returned about the same as my engineer buddy and me for the five year period but betters my buddy's simple 60/40 and trails me for the ten year period.
The moral of all of this is that investing centers more around a marathon (extended) time frame rather than a (short) sprint thus allowing some long term investment strategies for some of the funds that I own time to work. So score me as a long term investor who from time-to-time will put a special investment position into motion when it is felt market conditions warrant to play the swing along with also using the traditional seasonal, Sell Down In May, strategy on part of my equity allocation; and, then raise my equity allocation come fall and play the traditional fall stock market rally that usually runs from fall on and through the winter months and usually last until late spring (May).
Stiff upper lips all, this is bound to get worse.
Best, hawk