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Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
Yes, I see the NYSE has 96% up volume and 4% down volume. On issues it is 90% up and 9% down. I think the late Marty Zweig had a buy signal trigger, when the Advance/Decline volume was a 9-1.
You got it Hank, one of the better buy signals out there. Marty liked two within a certain period of time. I think there were three over a week or so at the March 2009 bottom. But alas, it has mostly evaporated along with the gains in the market. From 30 to 1 up/down volume to now 9 to 1 as we head for the close.
@Junkster- Actually it's Maurice to whom you are I'm sure referring here. But I do agree that Zweig was smart - and also about as "genuine" as they come.
@Junkster- Actually it's Maurice to whom you are I'm sure referring here. But I do agree that Zweig was smart - and also about as "genuine" as they come.
Yes, my apologies to Maurice. Senior moment at 68 or too engrossed in monitoring today's action and figuring what to do end of day.
Reducing (trimming) some equity fund positions in the growth area of portfolio with sizeable gains since 2008 & 2009 (booking profit) and letting sell proceeds settle to cash. I am thinking there will be some good buying opportunities coming before Thanksgiving. This will put my cash allocation north of twenty percent but short of twenty five percent.
The V shape rebound came quickly for the S&P500 Index and is now approaching upward resistance movement by my thinking; and, I don't think the market has a good chance of continued upward movement until we get through third quarter reporting. Seems, to me, September & October could indeed be rough months for stocks. Now watch the market prove me wrong; and, if so, I still have good representation in the capital markets. However, if I am correct, in my thinking, I will have some extra cash to put work in my traditional fall rally spiff.
Well so far my sells/trades of last week have worked out fairly well. While APPL, GILD, BX and OKS are all within a buck of my sell price my buys of CELG (up $40), PAA (up$2.10) and KKR (even) are bearable. Still holding on to my cash from APPL but PM is calling me. Old_Joe you're most welcome and I'll probably be coming to take GILD back from you soon as well.
Well so far my sells/trades of last week have worked out fairly well. While APPL, GILD, BX and OKS are all within a buck of my sell price my buys of CELG (up $40), PAA (up$2.10) and KKR (even) are bearable. Still holding on to my cash from APPL but PM is calling me. Old_Joe you're most welcome and I'll probably be coming to take GILD back from you soon as well.
Where'd you get CELG at? The bottom the other morning where the stock was limit down was $93, as far as I know. I was able to get some in the upper $90's. Long CELG (which I think has laid out a compelling path for the next 5 years and they've set considerable goals for 2017/2020) and GILD.
Scott - At Fidelity I had a wild-ass limit order placed at $87 on the off chance a day like Monday presented itself. It actually went down to $86. Very, very surprised that it filled. Didn't want to let go of GILD but I did so to dismiss my margin buy on CELG. Gild was hit too but not nearly as bad and I'm still of the opinion that we'll retest that S&P low of that day once again. If not, I'm now prepared to add GILD back with cash on hand. FWIW, I didn't sell all my APPL, just the few shares I can use for year end tax loss.
Scott - At Fidelity I had a wild-ass limit order placed at $87 on the off chance a day like Monday presented itself. It actually went down to $86. Very, very surprised that it filled. Didn't want to let go of GILD but I did so to dismiss my margin buy on CELG. Gild was hit too but not nearly as bad and I'm still of the opinion that we'll retest that S&P low of that day once again. If not, I'm now prepared to add GILD back with cash on hand. FWIW, I didn't sell all my APPL, just the few shares I can use for year end tax loss.
Same here Scott. It's supposedly protected from rising rates. We'll see.
They go into detail in the investor reports. Details are scattered throughout, but page 22 goes into earnings sensitivity. The other thing is this: I think a lot of people don't look at the details and if there's concern about rising rates, anything real estate will get tossed even if in this case it will benefit from rising rates. Again, that's also if rates ever go up again lol.
I do have a very good deal of respect for management, as well. There's a lot of high yield names where I question the sustainability. This is one case where, while nothing is guaranteed, I feel comfortable.
A higher risk high yield would be something like NRF, which has done really well in recent years but got obliterated and cut the dividend in 2008. It has made changes since, but it remains a very aggressive REIT that currently has an 11.5% yield.
My opinion only but if this downturn extends into the Christmas shopping season, we could be looking at a full blown bear market of 6-18 months. What worked in 2008-09 may not work this time around.
Nasty day. Things typically viewed as inflation hedges, including gold and natural resources, got clocked. Pondering? Staying away from very high open windows.
My opinion only but if this downturn extends into the Christmas shopping season, we could be looking at a full blown bear market of 6-18 months. What worked in 2008-09 may not work this time around.
If that's the case, the Fed will have some explaining to do and perhaps we can move past this sort of monetary policy.
Or, screw having to do any sort of explaining and be questioned by the idiots in Congress, the Fed will just take this sort of monetary policy to the limit and QE/ZIRP will not be the end but merely the beginning of "Hotel California" monetary policy.
If this is even remotely another crisis and we're still at ZIRP....
Hi @JohnChisum and others ... Just pondering here ... and, glad I currently have a large cash position.
Fact, there is believed to be a lot of leverage currently remaining in the market.
In a downturn, usually leverage postions of investors get closed before margin calls are made. I have no way of knowing how much leverage is currently out there but it would not surprise me if it was north of 35%. See where I am going with this. A decline of 30% would put the S&P 500 Index somewhere around 1500 from its recent 52 week high of about 2135. This puts its TTM P/E Ratio back in line with what many say is a normal TTM P/E Ratio range of 14 to 16. Some like to streach and use forward estimates or even the Rule of Twenty.
Jill Mislinski does a monthly piece on this which I have linked below.
From review ... It is interesting that TTM Earnings are currently being reported at $94.68 down from prior year ending reporting at $102.31 ... and, they are not expected to improve until sometime in the fourth quarter. At the current market close today at 1914 on the S&P 500 Index puts the TTM P/E Ratio at 20.2.
Still kina of expensive ... Don't you think? Let's see that is about a decline in TTM Earnings of about 7% thus far this year. Now if we take the prior's year ending closing price of about 2060 and mark it down by 7% we arive at a price of 1915 for the Index. Interesting, is it not? That is about where it closed at today.
Now some will say let's use the Rule of Twenty and in doing so that currently put's the Index around fair value. Perhaps so ... perhaps not. It depends on what the leveraged investor does. If they continue to close positions to reduce leverage ... Well, its still overvalued by my thinking.
Information about The Rule of Twenty is linked below ...
@Old_Skeet, Thanks for those links. Yes I agree for the most part that the markets are overvalued. Some stocks like Apple are very much undervalued. But most go the other direction like NFLX, TSLA, FIT and the rest of the fad momo stocks of the moment. Netflix is way way overvalued and today's action may be based on that to some extent. It's a wonder why the markets pump these stocks when they make zero profits or even have financial issues. It's irrational.
Some have said that this market is broken. Maybe so. Eventually it all reverts to the mean and the high flyers will descend into the abyss and join AOL, Nortel and the other irrational stocks of the past.
@Old_Skeet, But most go the other direction like NFLX, TSLA, FIT and the rest of the fad momo stocks of the moment. Netflix is way way overvalued and today's action may be based on that to some extent. It's a wonder why the markets pump these stocks when they make zero profits or even have financial issues. It's irrational. .
Read some other market discussion places on the internet and you will read about how Netflix and Tesla are the greatest thing ever. Also, when I read things like "it's a growth stock, valuation doesn't matter", all I can do is go, "Geez, people never learn anything from the past."
I think you've had a period where everything really works and cult stocks work even better. You get this belief especially from retail investors who like a product and ignore or don't bother with research into valuation. It's not helped by CNBC, who comes up with things like, "SHOULD YOU SELL FANG STOCKS?" (FANG being Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google and CNBC being complete idiots who shouldn't wonder why their ratings are so bad.) As has happened in the past, people believe things can go to the moon when they've already priced in enormous and likely unrealistic growth. Netflix has played things well and is clearly doing fine, but a 237 p/e? I wouldn't go near it.
Fitbit? Gopro? Things someone else could do tomorrow. No moat whatsoever.
Spot on. A lot of people are "married" to these stocks. Their obsession is fanatical. Say one negative thing about Netflix and you will be swarmed by the fanatics. It's almost comical
Wow.....is this an old thread or what? Many people at work are worried about the markets now (401s). Before, no one cared.....now, mommy make it stop (lol)! Have been doing some buying. ADDed to TMSFX. This is the first long short fund I've ever owned. I am surprised how well it's doing right now. ADDed to healthcare again. If it ever takes a shit, my ass is in trouble. Also ADDed a small position in PONDX....the first bond fund ever. Will add slowly as rates rise. No rush in the position....it's long term. Also thinking about DLTNX. Any comments would be appreciated regarding it. Also boughtFIEUX.....small position....will add on weakness.....why one word Draqui. Also bought NNTWX....mid caps-ish. U.S. is doing ok, I believe, so I will look for a bounce later. Again, small position. Anybody know the S&P - PE number? I heard 15. I look for some ugliness at the beginning of next week. Good time to buy, maybe. God bless the Pudd
Yes Scott. Like you I picked them shortly after they were issued and fell down near the $2 range. Sold them when they got back to $4 and haven't had then since until Friday. It's just crazy money and a bet that KMI will get back to $40 and hopefully beyond by 2017. Heck, I might just dump them if they just double.
It's been about two weeks since I made comment under this thread.
As a retail investor, I am still pondering what to do in this market, if anything. From my research, I am finding that the markert remians fully to overvalued ... and, even though it has pulled back I have not yet moved forward in opening any special investment positions to play the historical and anticipated fall rally. There are several things that are in my thoughts. One is a decline in TTM earnings for the S&P 500 Index by about seven per cent thus far this year ... and, two, is an anticipated increase in interest rates. To me both of these will effect near term price movement in both stocks and bonds. According to my most recent Xray analysis, I am cash heavy (north of twenty perceent) and above my neutral position at fifteen percent, a little light in fixed income at about twenty percent, a little heavy in my stock allocation at about 55% and a little light in my holdings in other assets at five percent.
It will be interesting to see what the FOMC does this week regarding interest rates along with the upcoming, in a few weeks, reporting of third quarter corporate earnings and revenue.
Until then, I am standing pat within my portfolio and not playing the possible come.
Perhaps big money will decided it is prudent to follow a path to deliverage their positions and with this market prices will most likely fall. Sometimes, it seems for me, there is little to do ... at this time ... as Cash just might become King within my asset allocation.
Added to a few things a couple of days ago. At this point, if the Fed does raise and income names go down I may make a few slight additions but aside from that...not doing anything.
Friday I "sub-divided" my new Roth at Oppenheimer into 4 parts. I kept 25% in the initial fund, QRAAX (commodities), and also put 25% each into OPGSX (gold), OREAX (Real Estate) and OEMAX (EM Local Currency Debt).
I had gambled in January that crude by now (and other commodities) would bounce high enough that I could begin to dollar average out of QRAAX into more conservative funds. That did not happen. QRAAX fell roughly another 14% after the conversion.
The current mix still takes advantage of some badly beaten-up areas, but provides I think a steadier path to appreciation of the Roth. With taxes paid and 8 months of the 5-year holding period behind I'm reluctant to reverse the conversion, though I know that's possible. All 4 funds were suffering when I made the split Friday. QRAAX was off about 32% for one year. OPGSX off about 45%, OEMAX was off 15%. OREAX was the best performer, off 9% YTD.
Question Hank. Why did you choose to have your Roth in a fund company like Oppenheimer which is know for a couple good funds and some not so good? Why not a brokerage house like Schwab or the like where the selection is better?
Comments
Edit: Pretty impressive at 20 to 1 on the close.
Reducing (trimming) some equity fund positions in the growth area of portfolio with sizeable gains since 2008 & 2009 (booking profit) and letting sell proceeds settle to cash. I am thinking there will be some good buying opportunities coming before Thanksgiving. This will put my cash allocation north of twenty percent but short of twenty five percent.
The V shape rebound came quickly for the S&P500 Index and is now approaching upward resistance movement by my thinking; and, I don't think the market has a good chance of continued upward movement until we get through third quarter reporting. Seems, to me, September & October could indeed be rough months for stocks. Now watch the market prove me wrong; and, if so, I still have good representation in the capital markets. However, if I am correct, in my thinking, I will have some extra cash to put work in my traditional fall rally spiff.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=SPY&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=LINE&v=1&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=SMA(50,);SMA(200,);PCT(20,0.01,10066431,3227936511);SMACD(12,26,9,16737792,10053375,13421721);MFI(14,255,100,39168,16711680);SRSI(14,6710886,20,255,16711680)&chartindicator_7_code=SMA&chartindicator_7_param_0=50&chartindicator_7_param_1=&chartindicator_8_code=SMA&chartindicator_8_param_0=200&chartindicator_8_param_1=&chartindicator_9_code=PCT&chartindicator_9_param_0=20&chartindicator_9_param_1=0.01&chartindicator_9_param_2=10066431&chartindicator_9_param_3=3227936511&chartindicator_10_code=SMACD&chartindicator_10_param_0=12&chartindicator_10_param_1=26&chartindicator_10_param_2=9&chartindicator_10_param_3=16737792&chartindicator_10_param_4=10053375&chartindicator_10_param_5=13421721&chartindicator_11_code=MFI&chartindicator_11_param_0=14&chartindicator_11_param_1=255&chartindicator_11_param_2=100&chartindicator_11_param_3=39168&chartindicator_11_param_4=16711680&chartindicator_12_code=SRSI&chartindicator_12_param_0=14&chartindicator_12_param_1=6710886&chartindicator_12_param_2=20&chartindicator_12_param_3=255&chartindicator_12_param_4=16711680&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=
Old_Skeet
http://ir.starwoodpropertytrust.com/Cache/1500072132.PDF?Y=&O=PDF&D=&FID=1500072132&T=&IID=4235133
I do have a very good deal of respect for management, as well. There's a lot of high yield names where I question the sustainability. This is one case where, while nothing is guaranteed, I feel comfortable.
A higher risk high yield would be something like NRF, which has done really well in recent years but got obliterated and cut the dividend in 2008. It has made changes since, but it remains a very aggressive REIT that currently has an 11.5% yield.
Pondering? Staying away from very high open windows.
Or, screw having to do any sort of explaining and be questioned by the idiots in Congress, the Fed will just take this sort of monetary policy to the limit and QE/ZIRP will not be the end but merely the beginning of "Hotel California" monetary policy.
If this is even remotely another crisis and we're still at ZIRP....
...and that's putting it lightly.
Fact, there is believed to be a lot of leverage currently remaining in the market.
In a downturn, usually leverage postions of investors get closed before margin calls are made. I have no way of knowing how much leverage is currently out there but it would not surprise me if it was north of 35%. See where I am going with this. A decline of 30% would put the S&P 500 Index somewhere around 1500 from its recent 52 week high of about 2135. This puts its TTM P/E Ratio back in line with what many say is a normal TTM P/E Ratio range of 14 to 16. Some like to streach and use forward estimates or even the Rule of Twenty.
Jill Mislinski does a monthly piece on this which I have linked below.
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PE-Ratios-and-Market-Valuation.php
From review ... It is interesting that TTM Earnings are currently being reported at $94.68 down from prior year ending reporting at $102.31 ... and, they are not expected to improve until sometime in the fourth quarter. At the current market close today at 1914 on the S&P 500 Index puts the TTM P/E Ratio at 20.2.
Still kina of expensive ... Don't you think? Let's see that is about a decline in TTM Earnings of about 7% thus far this year. Now if we take the prior's year ending closing price of about 2060 and mark it down by 7% we arive at a price of 1915 for the Index. Interesting, is it not? That is about where it closed at today.
Now some will say let's use the Rule of Twenty and in doing so that currently put's the Index around fair value. Perhaps so ... perhaps not. It depends on what the leveraged investor does. If they continue to close positions to reduce leverage ... Well, its still overvalued by my thinking.
Information about The Rule of Twenty is linked below ...
http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-05-01/rule-of-20-is-the-stock-market-fairly-valued
And, for those that like reading a good debate on the Rule of Twenty below is a link to Bogleheads.org ...
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=168118
Thanks for those links. Yes I agree for the most part that the markets are overvalued. Some stocks like Apple are very much undervalued. But most go the other direction like NFLX, TSLA, FIT and the rest of the fad momo stocks of the moment. Netflix is way way overvalued and today's action may be based on that to some extent. It's a wonder why the markets pump these stocks when they make zero profits or even have financial issues. It's irrational.
Some have said that this market is broken. Maybe so. Eventually it all reverts to the mean and the high flyers will descend into the abyss and join AOL, Nortel and the other irrational stocks of the past.
I think you've had a period where everything really works and cult stocks work even better. You get this belief especially from retail investors who like a product and ignore or don't bother with research into valuation. It's not helped by CNBC, who comes up with things like, "SHOULD YOU SELL FANG STOCKS?" (FANG being Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google and CNBC being complete idiots who shouldn't wonder why their ratings are so bad.) As has happened in the past, people believe things can go to the moon when they've already priced in enormous and likely unrealistic growth. Netflix has played things well and is clearly doing fine, but a 237 p/e? I wouldn't go near it.
Fitbit? Gopro? Things someone else could do tomorrow. No moat whatsoever.
Spot on. A lot of people are "married" to these stocks. Their obsession is fanatical. Say one negative thing about Netflix and you will be swarmed by the fanatics. It's almost comical
God bless
the Pudd
At these levels, worth a look but dang they are unbelievably volatile. May add to ETE next week.
It's been about two weeks since I made comment under this thread.
As a retail investor, I am still pondering what to do in this market, if anything. From my research, I am finding that the markert remians fully to overvalued ... and, even though it has pulled back I have not yet moved forward in opening any special investment positions to play the historical and anticipated fall rally. There are several things that are in my thoughts. One is a decline in TTM earnings for the S&P 500 Index by about seven per cent thus far this year ... and, two, is an anticipated increase in interest rates. To me both of these will effect near term price movement in both stocks and bonds. According to my most recent Xray analysis, I am cash heavy (north of twenty perceent) and above my neutral position at fifteen percent, a little light in fixed income at about twenty percent, a little heavy in my stock allocation at about 55% and a little light in my holdings in other assets at five percent.
It will be interesting to see what the FOMC does this week regarding interest rates along with the upcoming, in a few weeks, reporting of third quarter corporate earnings and revenue.
Until then, I am standing pat within my portfolio and not playing the possible come.
Perhaps big money will decided it is prudent to follow a path to deliverage their positions and with this market prices will most likely fall. Sometimes, it seems for me, there is little to do ... at this time ... as Cash just might become King within my asset allocation.
I had gambled in January that crude by now (and other commodities) would bounce high enough that I could begin to dollar average out of QRAAX into more conservative funds. That did not happen. QRAAX fell roughly another 14% after the conversion.
The current mix still takes advantage of some badly beaten-up areas, but provides I think a steadier path to appreciation of the Roth. With taxes paid and 8 months of the 5-year holding period behind I'm reluctant to reverse the conversion, though I know that's possible. All 4 funds were suffering when I made the split Friday. QRAAX was off about 32% for one year. OPGSX off about 45%, OEMAX was off 15%. OREAX was the best performer, off 9% YTD.