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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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  • edited October 18
    The Astron Aerospace H2 Starfire hydrogen internal combustion engine (ICE) is rather interesting.
    Corresponding infrastructure/support would be needed for hydrogen ICEs to become viable.
    https://www.topspeed.com/h2-starfire-engine-promising-disruptor-ev-industry/
  • BaluBalu said:

    WABAC said:

    I don't know about nukes, but green-hydrogen fuel cells are going to replace batteries sooner than we think.

    At a campaign pit stop, DJT gave his pronouncement against hydrogen. As is customary for him, he took the crowd along with him in mocking hydrogen fuel cell powered cars as bombs on wheels. So, you got a big hurdle for hydrogen technology in the US. May be Musk is in DJT ears on this but it is a no go.
    I don't think Trump reads the business section. I keep reading that we're on the verge of an oil glut and he wants the oil companies to keep drilling while they are putting money into not-so-green hydrogen or converting refineries to producing bio-diesel.

    Trump didn't like electric vehicles either. I think Musk will be able to take care of that little problem with cash. At one time Musk thought fuel cells were stupid. Times have changed.

    When it comes to our love affair with vehicles, hydrogen will be the easier switch in the long run because it more nearly matches our experience of filling up the tank, and going. Who wants to wait around for a vehicle to charge up? The trucking industry won't, for one.

    BTW. I am not encouraging anyone to invest in any of this stuff. There's many a slip between cup and lip.
  • I sometimes wonder how many maga's own Tesla's or connect via star-link or consume anything Musk related. Musk seems to be all about the $$$ and influence. What happens when he falls out of 45's orbit?
  • @WABAC ". I keep reading that we're on the verge of an oil glut" Any news on the refilling of national oil storage ? Seems it was down to 15-20 % not to long ago.
  • @Derf. Dinky linky.

    The reserve is being refilled. And the US is now a net exporter of oil, and the largest producer of oil in the world.
  • edited October 18
    Looking at a single issue, or from a single POV, things look differently. Sure, we can produce tons of oil; more than we do now. You always have the option of producing more if you set your mind to that. The reality is that there is more than that one factor involved. Produce too much, and prices drop. If prices drop, some production becomes non-viable due to costs. Should companies start making 'windfall profits', the government will find some means of punishing the industry, At some point, it becomes contra-intuitive to produce more and more oil. How does it benefit the industry to drive prices down by overproducing?

    Not to mention, I'm fairly certain that there simply isn't refinery capacity to handle much more production anyway! If it were all that simple, why didn't the Saudis just pump as much oil as they are capable of at all times? Hint: it's bad business practice, and one's creditors/investors would not be best pleased!
  • Things that look revolutionary can be very hard to invest in. Many people must have looked at the Wright Bros success and figured airplanes would be a great way to make money. I an sure people made money in Boeing, GE etc, but not in airlines unless you buy them at the right time. Same thing with car companies. How many were there in 1910?
  • @WABAC Thanks for the link, I enjoyed the read.
    @sma3 I'll contribute this tid bit of info. In 1908 there were 253 active auto manufacturers in the USA.

  • edited October 22
    Bumping up again.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-investor-david-einhorn-says-232814929.html

    Posted the link not for discussion but because I am taking up a post.
  • ...taking up a post.

    Sorry, I'm missing the meaning, there.
  • edited October 23
    Added a slug to the shares of SOBO I got from the spinoff from TC Energy earlier this month. Halfway to a 'full' position now. Given its one major pipeline from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico, it could become like another Williams (for crude) and/or be ripe as a takeout candidate. I expect retail interest to increase once they announce their first dividend next month ... right now it's projected to be in a rather juicy range for a midstream.

    Still stalking utes, infra, and midstreams to buy or add to the collection in my income+growth account ....
  • No more BCE. Sold out, at a tiny loss. The $$$ will do better for me, elsewhere.
  • edited October 23
    Crash said:

    ...taking up a post.

    Sorry, I'm missing the meaning, there.

    To take up a post …

  • That's a new one for me too.
    :)
  • edited October 25
    I had posted in a different thread that I sold some BA to buy NYCB. Today, NYCB released its Q3 earnings report and it sold off. I bought more of NYCB in pre-market. I generally do not like to invest in overly regulated industries but NYCB is a restructuring play for me. New management but it might take sometime to turnaround.

    BTW, there is a new ETF, XMAG, just for the 493 (SP 500 - MAGS).
  • In the IRA: Today seemed like a good day to sell USAGX and FSRPX in order to simplify the portfolio. I'm going to leave the proceeds in cash for a while in case there are any buying opportunities in the near future, which might include through inauguration day. Who knows?

    In the taxable: Nothing shaking yet. But I have cash there. I'm looking at VVOIX, GRID, PAVE, FIW, and AIRR. The overlap between GRID, PAVE, and AIRR is less than I expected.

    I think some trends in equity are likely to persist, but I wouldn't mind buying on a dip. And no, I don't really care how complex the taxable gets.

  • With the 10 year yield at 4.3% earlier today, I thought it was worth buying TLT at this point.
  • Cut my position in MRFOX by 50% down to 40K with proceeds going into CPAI, FCLCX, and SPMO.
  • edited November 3

    Cut my position in MRFOX by 50% down to 40K with proceeds going into CPAI, FCLCX, and SPMO.

    You were way more involved than me with MRFOX. By that standard I own too much. I am a lousy seller. Thanks for posting your sell.

    Are any of the buys new to your portfolio?

    First time hearing about CPAI. How did you decide on it? Thanks

  • CPAI is systematic, a diversifier, and defensive. Its aim is capital appreciation. It uses multiple machine models and AI to select the stocks while adjusting to different factors to seek outperformance to the market. It is new to the portfolio. (BTW I sold 60K of MRFOX but still own 20K.)
  • CPAI is systematic, a diversifier, and defensive. Its aim is capital appreciation. It uses multiple machine models and AI to select the stocks while adjusting to different factors to seek outperformance to the market. It is new to the portfolio. (BTW I sold 60K of MRFOX but still own 20K.)

    I own it in six figures. My dilemma is what to replace with and I want to replace it with one ticker. SPY is always too expensive to my eye, though it made money within six months after every time I bought it, and I never sold it. MRFOX is a value fund and so may be I should replace it with a value fund. I would appreciate if anyone knows of a value fund that overweights Quality factor.

  • >> SPY is always too expensive to my eye

    Why not replace with IVV / VOO or FXAIX?

  • edited November 4
    I use SPY as a symbol for S&P 500. Fewer letters to type on the phone. I will try to use SPX (not as popular a symbol) going forward.
  • edited November 4
    BaluBalu said:

    I would appreciate if anyone knows of a value fund that overweights Quality factor.

    You mean besides all of the funds that add quality to their name? :)

    IIRC . . . FDVV and DGRW are probably in that vein. DAGVX and GQHPX probably are as well. Heck, there are a lot of value funds out there that don't advertise they are buying falling knives. They may not specifically mention quality in their marketing.
  • edited November 4
    Why does Schwab give me this notice just now and is not accepting my ETF buy order,

    "This order cannot be accepted because the Extended Hours Trading session is closed."

    Edit: I was able to place the extended hours trade when i tried the fourth time. Schwab site continues to be glitchy. I may have to switch over to TOS.
  • edited November 4
    This is a suggestion and not a recommendation.
    You may want to consider Avantis funds.
    Avantis selects companies trading at lower valuations with higher profitability ratios for their value funds.

    https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-investments/
  • edited November 4
    @WABAC,

    It is OK if Quality is in the name or not. Most Quality funds I know are blend or growth. The few Value funds I know that have Quality in their name do not score well in M* factor profile for Quality. I am assuming you have access to M* factor profile. GQHPX scores almost at the bottom and DGRW at midpoint. So, I guess the word "Quality" means different things to different institutions.

    I had considered three of your suggestions, except DAGVX, as a replacement for MRFOX but discarded them after looking at the Quality profile.

    Let me know what you think of SPGP as a replacement for MRFOX. I was not sure if it is really that much better than MRFOX. I pull the trigger and so no need to feel inhibited in offering advice.

    Interestingly, MRFOX underperformed from May through Dec 2021 (similar to now) when it probably thought the market was frothy and it lagged SPX by 10% over that period. If not for the Fed increasing rates, that froth could have continued longer and FOMO angst for then shareholders would have continued. Markets can stay irrational longer than my remaining life. So, being snobby about valuations and not participate in equities (like MRFOX) can be harmful.
  • edited November 4
    @BaluBalu, FWIW, I really like the Capital Group ETFs, particularly CGDV for LCV. Not sure what 'quality factor' means so I can't say it "overweighs" it.
  • edited November 4
    MikeM said:

    @BaluBalu, FWIW, I really like the Capital Group ETFs, particularly CGDV for LCV. Not sure what 'quality factor' means so I can't say it "overweighs" it.

    Thanks Mike. I have near full position in CGDV, with a bit of room but not enough. (Incidentally, its Quality score in M* factor profile is low, though higher than that of GQHPX, the fund that has Quality in its name. I think I may have to rethink my looking Quality in isolation. May be low quality combined with low volatility produces magic!. I always discounted equity volatility in benign credit conditions but may be there is something I am not considering.)

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