Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"The heart of his research was grounded in the basic relationship between risk and reward....."
It's interesting...but how does it help my portfolio risk-adjusted portfolio by telling me what to do at what time? We saw in 2022 that both stocks and…
Unfortunately, LSLTX doesn't have a longer history. Comparing VS the SP500 after a huge 5 years run and then losing for the next 10 years isn't fair either.
2009-10 IMO is fairer.
I posted 2009 or 2010. Since 2010, 2011 the SP500 did much better. The SP550 had a huge run of 250% in just 5 years 1995-1999 https://schrts.co/ykvzeewQ
In the next 10 years 2000-2010 it lost money. https://schrts.co/wVEarbKn
A chart since 2010 sh…
Interestingly, Leuthold Select Industries, LSLTX, has beaten VFINX, the Vanguard S&P 500 fund, since its inception but lagged VIMAX, the Vanguard mid-cap index fund. Depending on how you want to define the Leuthold fund, you could call that succ…
You can do a lot worse than 60/40. A good example is someone who owns 10-15 funds...or someone with overlapping securities, underperformance, and diversification that isn't good enough.
Blackrock have an interesting article about it. As expected, th…
Pessimists get the microphone. Optimists make the money.
+1
What a surprise, economists have been wrong for decades.
Hint: every time someone predicts markets based on the economy, unemployment, valuation, inverted yield and many others, there is…
Lynch was great, but he did it when a lot of information wasn't available and most investors didn't have an easy access to all the tools we have in the last 20 years. See below BRK.A performance. It is very clear that the best performance was in t…
It depends. Someone who mostly buys and holds and what most should do, has no issues. Trading markets since Covid started is harder. Risk/volatility is elevated, market changes have been faster. I changed too because of it. I trade more often, think…
[snip]
The more you diversify, the chances are your portfolio will not beat the indexes and why Buffett said "Diversification is a protection against ignorance".
[snip]
Warren Buffett speaking to MBA students:
"If you are not a professional inve…
First, 60/40 is just an idea, an investor can be in 50/50 and all the way 100/0. It depends on someone's age and goals.
PRWCX is a unique go-anywhere fund. It's not your typical 60/40. PRWCX excels in risk-adjusted performance and can be measured b…
sma3, from experience, if many clients call about the same problem, you know it's an IT issue. If it's one person...
The most common help question is "I did nothing and suddenly it doesn't work". In most cases, the client always did something new. …
The SP500 made over 20% since 10/22 and soon will go down 5%...looks trivial to me.
150 billion sounds impressive, the 24/7 media loves to impress. Instead of saying the Dow is 1% down, they say the Dow is down 350 points.
"The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday, but officials signaled they are prepared to raise rates again this year to tame stubborn inflation."
The second part intends to be hawkish to cover their a$$. What matters is actual which w…
Several reps said that buying above 90% violates a securities rule (either FINRA or SEC). So I told them: if this is true how come Schwab let you do it? It's hard to believe a company that size would violate this rule thousands of times.
The rep rea…
I continue to use MM which pays 4.9-5% compared to 3-6 months treasuries at 5.2-5.3%. The difference is insignificant. MM lets me trade in/out of funds very easily.
I have been complaining about the above for over 10 years to Fidelity reps/supervisors. Several reps told me it's a finra/sec rules but it's not correct. It's Fidelity's own imposed rules.
As a trader, it's just annoying and wasting extra time. Whe…
Over the years when I wanted to own/ trade bank loans, I used one of the following FAFRX,EIFAX,OOSAX.
WABAC, the only fund I have used instead of MM/CD YTD, was RPHIX. I don't trust any other funds.
DT, good analysis. The CME-fedwatch-tool shows no rate increase this week, a 62% chance increase of 0.25 next month, and a decrease of 0.25% by year's end. Looks to me, not much change while the Fed fund rate stays elevated.
If I search by Sharpe(si…
Hank: FD - Just a reaction to your use of “proprietary”. It sounds as if you can’t share your approach on a board dedicated to sharing and helping one another. But perhaps I misunderstood your intent. Sorry if I offended you.
FD: I did share, read …
Some people have T-DS and some have FD-DS.
Hank, if you think that my system is too funny, I welcome you to dive a bit into it(link). Several did and doing very well. The whole idea is to find great risk/reward funds, small AUM is a plus, an uptren…
YTD: I had already 2 roundtrips of several weeks each, in January and March to mid-April, all in HY Munis. Last week, I started roundtrip #3, and invested back at 99+% all in bond OEFs.
Unfortunately, I can't discuss what funds I own because it's p…
stillers: BTW, I'm starting to feel genuine sorrow for your family. And I consider that a big step on my part.
FD: Your usual, I post about investments and you troll my thread and attack me personally. After years that you claimed I don't have a cl…
Several past posts:
1) "MSF describes it—blend—a blue chip stock with its heady growth days in the past.
"Agree with msf and Lewis assessment. The fast growing business (iPhones, computers, music, and AppleTV) since Steve Jobs's returned has plateau…
So I read the linked (sic) article.
Then I read the OP.
After which, my only thought was/is:
I thought Roseanne Roseannadanna passed away a long time ago.
I see that the OP has also posted the same link (sic) on another forum and has been met wit…
OK, I got it when I'm correct, advisors MAY be wrong. They are actually wrong many times, and why I don't listen to them. I just invest based on what has worked recently.
Just checking in again since the first post on March 8th. Quote "78% prefer Value (IWD) (VONV) vs. 12% who like Growth (IWF)"
This (chart) since March 8th shows that IWF=growth continues to outperform IWD=value by more than 9% since and GLD did pret…
Well to be fair the survey was taken to assess how managers 'intend' to invest moving forward and not how they were positioned. The part FD left off from Yahoo:
"Defensiveness is in style among financial advisers, according to the BofA Securities …
Pretty sloppy for a guy who is always not only on top of everything, but actually well ahead of everything... he didn't bother to check his link response, which seems pretty odd considering that he has such superior financial systems. Makes you wond…
Wish there was someone who never got anything wrong. Why is that so difficult?!
That's not the point. My main point is that Wilson got many things wrong. He is getting paid to make great forecasts, if he fails, he should be fired.
The SP500 was pos…
Takes a million dollars to get into SNAXX, so you often must give up about .15% yield and settle for its sibling SWVXX. I was able to buy SNAXX, in one of my accounts, in March of 2022, when I sold/reduced OEFs, but since then I have been able to r…
Several posts I made over the years
1) 2020, going to cash on 2/29/2000(link). I actually posted here too(link)
2) In early 2022, going to cash(link).
3) In 11/2022, going back in and why (link).
4) I posted about one good indicator I have been usin…
My indicators triggered a sell, in early Feb. Since then I'm at 99+%, mainly in two MM SWVXX-SNAXX paying 4.47-6.2%. I will join the next bond uptrend.
mmm...I started a thread https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1959/bond-future-musings
Keep reading until you get to a post saying "As promised, my posts about what I do would be late by weeks instead of days (you know why). Let's start f…
I posted in early 11/2022 that the turnaround in bonds started....1) Bad losses should turn to a nice rebound 2) we can see the end of rate increase, no need to wait 3) the charts/uptrend gave a clear signal 4) Inflation starts to go down).
I wen…
We can have turmoil and crisis but if it will not last for months-years, the global financial system will collapse. If you can't trust MM in Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab we have a bigger problem. A real crisis would lead to big stock+bond decline, …
Why are you not buying broker CD/Treasury? Fidelity treasuries pays 4.8% for 6 months (https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding) and you don't pay state tax.
Can I trade back and forth with CD/Treasury? it's inconvenienced.
Can I buy sev…
But all you can come up with now is a mortgage fund and a one-day inverse gov ETF?
Weren’t you whingeing on about BSV months ago?
Do you have any nonwacky thoughts?
I posted already "You can make several % more in managed bond fund, this is where t…
