Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Love "experts" predictions, see (link)
Example: In 05/2012 (article)
Question:You have become famous for your cyclically adjusted 10-year price/earnings ratio. What do the latest numbers say about future stock market returns?
Shiller: we found a …
That said, if it were me deciding between the two, all performance metrics I usually review would point me to selecting PQTAX over AHLPX. Volatility is not as an important a metric to me as I subscribe to the axiom of a venerable, former M* who r…
TMSRX had a decent 2019-20 and terrible 2021 and why you need to trade these funds. I pretty much gave up on alternative funds. Their performance is uneven and unreliable over the years.
Unfortunately, Grantham has been wrong for over 10 years. But he is not alone, Arnott (PAUIX) and Hussman were too.
See one source(link)
He was so off on US LC(SP500) and EM stocks.
I think most investors should disregard it and most other "expert" opinions. Most should know their goals and risk tolerance and invest accordingly with min trading based on that. Most should stick to stocks+bonds and if you want to go crazy use 10…
The above is a 7 year forecast by GMO from 12/31/2010. I have posted right after the above prediction that GMO would be very wrong about US LC(SPY), and they were hugely wrong. I haven't changed my mind about GMO. I said the same about Arnott (…
I think it's pretty "easy". If you believe in Schwab view, then CLMAX will be a good choice.
In the last 4 + 12 weeks, CLMAX ranks at 94+72 and lagging badly with 0% + 0.9%.
CLMAX has a good record in the riskier specialized securitized when you…
Would it be an over simplification to say that you own bond funds if you are afraid that you might panic and sell if there is an equity crash? Is that the primary reason? The market watch article says you own bond funds for safety and not return.
…
RPIDX: another 0.4% today and 7.7% for YTD.
I don't worry about market crashes, I sell, so, bring it on, the faster and deeper is better because the recovery will be much better too ;-)
As someone who invest all hid money in bond OEFs and trade stock/CEFs only a few times annually.
PIMIX/PONAX: I sold on 01/2018 and never looked back.
What had been looking good YTD without revealing my own funds:
RPIDX: The manager used to work at…
I look at the size but as long as the fund performing well according to my strict criteria I hold it. PIMIX was great until 2018, I sold it in 01/2018. PRWCX is still a great fund which I don't own. Of course indexes don't count.
@Crash, yes and no. Someone can do pretty well with minimal changes. I held PIMIX about 7-8 years. I held one HY Muni for 3 years. In the last several years I invested mostly in HY Munis + special securitized bond within Multi/NonTrad.
So, I babysi…
My usual comments:
Not all bonds are higher-rated bonds. Bonds have several unique categories with different ballast, volatility and market conditions.
Treasuries are a great ballast but terrible in rising rates. Bank loans are much better in risi…
The results depend on several assumptions you can't accurately predict and why my wife and I will start taking our SS at age 65. Why 65?
1) It's between 62 and 70.
2) It's convenient for paying Medicare + taxes.
3) If you are retired and needs to …
LB,
Can you explain why Obama got the Nobel Prize for peace?
- Withdrew US troops and joked about ISIS, enabling the partial takeover of Syria and Iraq by Islamist radicals, with immeasurable consequences such as millions of refugees into Europe.
- …
It's sad to see how his political biased clouded his judgment in 2016. Do you care to comment about that?
I was able to read the article. I agree with Krugman, he basically says what I posted above.
I can't read the article but if Krugman said that inflation is going to be way up, he will be wrong and not the first time, see (2016). I'm amazed he got the Nobel Memorial Prize.
Let's talk inflation:
The ANNUAL inflation may get to 3-4% in the n…
I'm with Fidelity and Schwab for years. I never waited at Schwab more than 1-2 minutes and many times the reps work from home.
In the last 2-3 years, I waited several times at least 20-30 minutes at Fidelity and then they transferred me again to t…
I haven’t read everything above but I say cash is form of bonds. When I started investing in 1982 cash reserve funds were the high flyers. Of course conditions then were much different than they are now but still, cash reserves are ultra short bond…
I don't see what is the complaint about. The Fed rather be late a bit then make preemptive measures which may not happen. Sometimes, just the Fed narrative can change market opinion/anticipation without doing anything.
There is no way to forecast t…
@CRASH AND @BASEBALL FAN -My question is specifically for diversification
of funds outside of the US .Currently full positions of US Bond funds and Muni's,
and wanting to put some cash to work .Per the NYT article -I am interested in the foreign …
The usual boring statement, KISS for most: know your goals and risk tolerance, select asset allocation accordingly, make minimal changes, stay the course, stay invested.
Emergency fund: after your savings pass a certain amount (for us $50K+) we no…
FD1000 can write 10 words and I can make a fortune.
Sounds like you 2 should get your own (chat) room.
Sounds like you can't face reality. If you are interested in making money while achieving great risk-adjusted performance pay attention.
Nobo…
FD1000 can write 10 words and I can make a fortune.
Sounds like you 2 should get your own (chat) room.
Sounds like you can't face reality. If you are interested in making money while achieving great risk-adjusted performance pay attention.
Anybody who is in the prediction business must be wrong.
Here are a list of
some famous "experts" Bogle, GMO, Arnott, Gundlach, Shiller
Others, PE, PE10=CAPE, inverted yield, overvalue, the sky is falling every other week.
KISS for most: know your…
fd1k, again, you really should do this for a living for others and not bother poasting
Why would I bother working? After you have enough, why have a schedule, customers and bosses.
My grandson says "grandpa is retired, he plays all day"...he nail…
Sure, stillers(=alb..) the usual, your posts are out of context.
Do I invest based on duration? I sure do post lots of info with my monthly info but my style for years is still based mainly on momentum + smoother ride.
But I also post generic answ…
msf: "In short, you're conflating fund "purity" with fund type. There's little special about treasuries, and nothing that you've identified."
wow, I'm "impressed".
I have done the following a few times. I looked at treasuries rate changes when it w…
msf, nice try. I never said :In comparison, duration is inaccurate with any other type of bond".
I sais "Many/Most bond funds have several bond categories that behave differently, some use derivatives which complicate things even more. Managed fun…
3 examples:
Let me know how you can predict PIMIX movements based on its duration.
DODIX is simpler, but the managers can still change within category. Imagine they reduce treasuries % and raised Corp.
Even a simple fund such as VBTLX wouldn't be…
Duration is a lot more accurate with treasuries. Many/Most bond funds have several bond categories that behave differently, some use derivatives which complicate things even more. Managed funds can also change their bond mix which affect performance…
I follow this rule over 20 years and I have done great. I never invest based on prediction or pat attention to them, I invest based on what happened lately, and it never disappointed me. The market tells me what works and what doesn't and why I men…
I have read so many inflation/rate scary stories in the last several weeks. Let me know when inflation is high (over 3%) for several months.
Inflation will be higher in the next 2-4 months on annual basis because they compare it to the same month …
This gets regurgitated multiple times a year....must be whenever there is excess “volatility” (which of course is “bad” when it’s to the downside, right?)....doesn’t make it any less true, and maybe that’s why it needs to be repeated ad nauseum?
I s…
Every time I see a new thread about bonds I smile. Yes, I'm the exception and have done it for years. I retired in 2018, we need only 4% (maybe less) including inflation to keep our living standard for the next several decades. I still want to mak…
Is there a Bond Fund that Shorts Bonds? I know a bond fund that is up several % year to date + partially doing short + have a nice 3 years returns.
why-world-would-you-own-bonds-ray-dalio? Because many retires that have enough don't want to have t…
