Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
”Since 2000, I invest based on what has worked lately.”
I suspect most people do. They just don’t like to admit it.
Sounds just a bit like the ”trend following” tactic discussed by Meb Faber in this week’s Barron’s. (Perhaps once known affecti…
SNAXX pays 4.71% at Schwab. I know they are not equal.
Wait, I have less than 1% in MM and I only concentrate on how to make money, which will make me a lot more than the difference between these funds.
Buffett has been increasing cash for 2 years already.
The stock Berkshire Hathaway performance is similar to the SP500 which is unique to B.
Most investors who invested a high % in cash lagged the SP500 by a lot.
What can I learn from him? not muc…
I like simple since I started trading in 2000.
Concentrated portfolio in top categories, disregarding all the noise("experts" advice, election, valuation, economic indicators)
Never alternative categories (gold, commodities, CEF,long-short,others).
…
Since 2000, I invest based on what has worked lately, never predictions.
Buffet "only" missed 56+% in the last 2 years for his favorite advice, the SP500.
https://schrts.co/SNtMNdYU
It's about going to the middle.
Stop the woke, and the extreme.
Everything is not racism.
Schools and universities can't be teaching mostly one side. All views should be encouraged in campuses without fear and riots.
Politicians should listen to the…
I have been using the Fidelity CC for years but switched mostly to Pended CC with 2% cash back
https://www.penfed.org/credit-cards
Because Pended superior customer service and easier claim filing.
The other cards I have used for years are
*The Pend…
Open wide the doors, so that more people can shoot themselves in the foot? If I'm not already a day-trader, how is this of benefit to me? After hours. Or before the next morning's opening. Playing with Futures prices. I am "long" with all my stuff. …
At the end of last year so many "experts" predicted 6-7 cuts and were wrong.
I documented over many years so many foolish predictions. See
https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/13/wall-shame-worse-experts-predictions
There are better opinions how t…
Many bond investors make decisions based on what happened before while missing what is in front of them.
RPHIX,FLOT and FLRN make sense.
If you use a chart and use all the funds for YTD, the others have a lot more volatility and not much to show for…
Crash ADL is a caricature of itself.
FD:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/sep/24/fbi-antisemitic-hate-crimes-in-us-surge-to-all-tim/
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Mark : How much larger my bank account becomes means nothing if women are not treated equally, if …
Funny, everything Dems accused T, they have done already.
Russian collusion? Paid by Hilary and executed thu the FBI
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/15/politics/john-durham-report-fbi-trump-released/index.html
Soros has been promoting his lib agenda f…
I got it Hank, when you don't like something it's biased.
The economists in 2016, see the quote below, talked about the economy not the stock market.
A group of 20 Nobel Prize–winning economists warned last week that a Trump presidency could “jeopa…
Hank,
I'm "impressed" by these economists...mmm...just as I was in 2016.
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/10/economists-said-trump-presidency-would-be-a-disaster-why-isnt-wall-street-worried-commentary.html
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugm…
Hey Mona, I enjoy our Europe and all other travels around the world which we have done for over 40 years.
What I don't enjoy is the simple fact that many people, especially bight ones with advanced degrees completely lost their mind.
When I discuss …
Evidently FD1000 thinks that all of this is just "fake facts".
Sure, I got it.
Trump had low inflation + high increase of real wages + the borders were tight + Putin did not attack Ukraine + the Middle East was quiet and 4 Muslim countries sign peac…
Tariffs are also likely to cause more inflation. Does anyone doubt that cheaper imports helps keep a lid on prices of goods produced here? The same with tighter immigration policies and deporting immigrants, which would raise labor costs.
I remember…
"Also I have a quirk when it comes to OEF bond funds. I prefer the ones that pay daily vs. the ones that pay monthly."
I share that feeling because the monthly ones give the illusion of smoother NAV than what the NAV otherwise would be. They do n…
Litner, the system forced me to do the sell first.
MSF, I usually sell the whole position, I believe in very concentrated portfolio of just 2-3 funds.
Funds that I see a potential, I sell minus 2 shares per account and why I don't know the final a…
I have done the following for years at Schwab.
Suppose I have $100k in MM and want to buy $100k PRWCX.
I sell $100k of MM and buy PRWCX in the morning. At night I see the results, no problem.
If you do the reverse, same results.
If you sell all the…
I'm not glorifying anything. I'm just calling what it is.
Rebalancing is a gray area.
I'm talking about switching funds. I'm also talking about the meaning of a trader, the definition isn't accurate and many can't admit they are traders.
The bottom …
The artemis site continues to be an excellent source of info.
https://www.artemis.bm/news/mutual-cat-bond-and-ils-funds-recover-ground-as-hurricane-milton-impact-clearer/
Anytime you make a trade, once a month or once a year, you are a trader, and it doesn't matter if it's 10% or 30%.
After years of trading every 4-6 months, I found out that trading based on current market conditions gives me the best risk/reward. I…
^MOVE, the bond risk, is over 120 and indicates elevated risk.
MOVE > 110 has a nice correlation to high volatility in bonds and in most cases, typical high-rated bonds don't do well.
On 3-2-2020 it was at 125 = sell everything = correct. The we…
BB: "How often do you run the fund screener even if your current holdings are performing to your satisfaction?
FD: My simpler original system says run it every 4-6 months regardless of anything and select the best risk/reward funds.
My newer tradi…
So, when someone posts about a fund I own now and says, Well, in 2022, it lost more than another fund or in the last 10 years, this fund was better than another, I don't care, what matters is what the fund is doing now..
The problem is defining "…
It doesn't look good.
I don't worry to much about this fund. Sold it late in 2021 and never used it after that. Since late 2012 it lost a lot and haven't rebounded much while other funds in the same space came back.
1) hank "@FD / Wouldn’t it help people more if you posted what different investments will do in the next 1, 5, 10 years rather than what they did in the past?"
FD: your claim is pretty old. I don't predict what would be good, I invest based on what…
@MikeM, I did understand you pretty well. Racqueteer's answer was excellent, explaining it further. There are so many styles between traders to B&H for ever.
You could have constructed a very nice portfolio in 2010 just to find out that your dec…
Good observation but most articles that discuss bonds mean treasuries or high rated bonds.
Last week BND,DODIX lost 1.2%.
But, HY munis (ORNAX,MMHAX) were flat last week.
Bank loans (EIFAX) and ICMUX also made money last week.
It's my perception that people who move in and out of funds are "fund" investers, maybe even collectors, not over-all "portfolio" investors. My hope is having a portfolio that trends upward with the least amount pf volatility I can obtain. The portf…
Observations:
1) fred495 is a good trader. Every investment board have different traders. The ones who buy and hold years, the ones who switch every 2-3 years, and others who change when they see better funds than what they have.
So, when someone po…
This thread should be about Iran, it's proxies, Israel, the Middle East, and the US. You have to discuss history because it's all part of the complex.
Was this a new escalation? Yes
Is Israel going to attack? Yes
If Mexico and its proxies will send …
A war with Iran maybe bad, but doing nothing is worse IMO.
Israel is in its second independence war.
A reminder, just 4 years ago the Middle East was calm and 4 Arabic countries signed a peace agreement, first time since Israel became a country. All…
YBB:
So, I don't see what is attracting retail investors to cat-bonds.
FD: any time I see a bond fund with 8% potential per year with a smooth uptrend, I join it.
If the fund makes 10+%, I dance. I don't know many retirees who wouldn't love this.
T…
In Schwab the min is $2500 + $49.95. Most times I don't pay this.
Even if I pay for it, it's meaningless compared to the amounts I invest.
Most investors do too much analysis. If I know the manager and the uptrend is good and smooth I will buy, and …
