Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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My own anecdote, fwiw:
Over 55 years doing editorial work, working with community workers, lawyers, planners, and the widest range of engineers, I have worked perhaps a half-dozen public sector (or public-sector-related) gigs in an odd …
Several points:
You can claim that every political view relates to investment. Well, it's not.
Most posts about king, orange, coup, Nazi, Elon, MAGA, Trump, In normal times, free fall and many others are very easy to trace.
Does your statement aff…
"That kind of hurts my feelings. We have been good clients for over half of a century."
Doing business is not about feelings, it's about getting what you want for the best price. Show them who is in control and transfer your money to Schwab or Fide…
Let me guess.
Dems=great. GOP=Terrible. Until the next election we will see daily articles like thism
The only problem is that great Dems used to be Kennedy and Clinton. Something to ponder.
Really?
So why Mexico, Canada, and others made a change?
If this was true, the SP500 would be down at least 10%...but it's close to the top.
Another TDS thread.
Please use the off topic forum.
beat him by a month
Not even close.
Bowley is a trader that has been trading in/out and owning leading categories and single stocks. Someone who listens to him can do almost nothing if the S&P 500 is doing OK or use his categories/stock ideas. …
The usual TDS.
You mention Trump, and you get 10 "great" posts within an hour.
...and of course you have to open new threads on the investment forum :-)
My point for years is that future predictions is a fool errand.
I have never invested based on the future, only based on current markets and they can be illogical and longer than anyone can predict.
Never Mind …
Best post in another TDS thread.
Let me guess the next 4 years...same old stuff.
And now the Dems scream about inflation...mmm...where were you when inflation hit the ceiling?
Latest from Bowly (stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2025/01/whats-the-secret-to-crushing-t-702.html).
Quote "Don't bet against a secular bull market advance!" We're all trained, or brainwashed, if you will, to believe that the next major stoc…
A very quick look shows that
VIX(SP500 SD) < 15
MOVE(treasury SD)=87=low
SP500 is in an uptrend.
I don't need to check beyond that.
My big picture = "normal" market = I'm invested at 99+% for several months now.
but you're invested 99+% in bon…
A very quick look shows that
VIX(SP500 SD) < 15
MOVE(treasury SD)=87=low
SP500 is in an uptrend.
I don't need to check beyond that.
My big picture = "normal" market = I'm invested at 99+% for several months now.
Hondo: Why don't you folks give Trump a little time?
FD: on this board? The guys here are so extreme. If Trump says air is good for you, the Dems may stop breathing. Biden was the worst president in decades, and they can't admit it. They will never…
* Trump issues new executive order dismantling DEI programs
* Government employees are warned they may be placed on paid leave
* FAA told to conduct safety review
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-place-federal-dei-staff-paid-leave-starting-we…
I get a weekly analysis from the manager of the bond fund I own. From Jan 17:
"the overall strategy is optimizing the following three things:
1) portfolio coupon
2) maintaining a short portfolio maturity and
3) increasing overall portfolio liquid…
Let me see. In 2023-4, the SP500 made over 50%.
In the last 15 years, about 13.8% annually.
* Valuation are high
* The next 2 years will not be as good as the last 2 years.
* There is a good chance the SP500 will go down 10-15% in the next 2 years…
hank: @FD1000 - I think you can read other “expert” opinions even if you consider yourself one of them. I don’t think you have to follow any expert’s advice. If they are “big” enough they will acknowledge that they might be wrong.
FD: I never said …
Bondland:
If you look at generic, typical funds, you get a lot of volatility without knowing the results because the Fed is in control.
To make a much better risk/reward decision, you must find these unique bond funds, which we discussed here for ab…
Marks reminds me of Bogle. I may be wrong. They both were great; they grew older; they don't participate in the daily management. Marks isn't managing money anymore.
But they want to be involved. So, let them have a place to publish their thoughts.
…
BB: @FD1000, why is that you invest only (or primarily) in bond OEFs and not in bond ETFs, which presumably will give you a better opportunity to buy low and sell high than OEFs would?
FD: because I found out I can make as much as allocation funds …
I don't pay attention to any "experts" only to my system.
My big picture NOW = risk is "normal" which means I'm invested at 99+% in all accounts including my bank and credit union.
When risk is very high I will be mostly in MM very quickly.
I don't …
I let you guys do all the posting, and this is what I see.
1) No admission that CA leaders did anything wrong while there are plenty to go with
2) You continue to post hundreds of times MAGA this and MAGA that. CA is controlled by the DEMs.
3) I nev…
@Observant1,
I'm still waiting for you to prove my hindsight; after all, it's not the first time you claimed it.
I never claimed to be the smartest in the room or that I made the most.
BTW, I also don't attack posters personally; I just use analysis…
"Excellent" observations by the quacks.
I didn't beat the SP500 in 2023-4. Not even close, and I don't need it.
It's all at (https://fd1000.freeforums.net/post/446)
I know that none of you can do it; just keep quacking. I already have heard it for…
IMO, you must cut it down to 5 funds.
Get used to a very limited number of funds and a max of only 2 fund switches per year.
If not, that leads to more confusion, overlapping, overtrading, and making less money.
Research shows that young investors…
DT, you know I like and respect you, but often it boils down to your wife and extremly limited options in a 10-mile radius.
What would happen if there was only one lousy bank and nothing else?
I think the best choices long term are mutual funds. If …
It looks to me that a big CU is a better choice for safety. I use Penfed for their credit cards. It is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration.
I would not select a small CU for large amounts of Certificate of Deposit to get a …
Well, I read that whole post. Then I read it a second time.
After two readings, the only part I even half-way understood was:
"If you wait too long, you are too late."
Why? Because it wakes up the infamous YB echoes of:
"It ain't over 'til it's …
Why look at EXDAX when ICMUX performance for 1-3-5 years is so much better with a lower SD.
ICMUX doubled EXDAX for 1 year and more than doubled for 5 years.
The problem with Marks and many others is in the details.
How do you control risk in real life when markets punch you in the face?
If you know your goals, risk, volatility and are willing to tolerate it, and you are a buy-and-hold investor, you sho…
For more than a year now, I took the other side, which has been one of the best risk/reward performance in bond land. Investing in lower-rated CLOs.
CLOZ made over 20% in 1.5 years, while TLT lost over 9%.
https://schrts.co/PcchSZaD
Currently, CLOZ…
The writer repeats what many have said for years without more insight.
Why high Div stocks are not a good market barometer? The high tech revolution changed it. For decades now tech companies leads the world in innovation and creating wealth. These …
The SP500 is used much more because it's just a better wider index period. You can go with VTI which is wider than VOO, but they are pretty close.
There is a good reason why Bogle and Buffett said it many times too.
DT: FD, I get your position. You are not a CD investor, you will never be a CD investor, and you will continue your trading approach that does not include CDs, which requires liquidity in your holdings. My original post was directed toward existing …
The biggest problem with CDs and annuities is that most hold them while giving up good opportunities in bondland. I can trade my funds any day.
Vanguard 10 years estimates (https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives)
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