Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
This is another subject that needs attention.
Are MC a better choice than LC? As usual, it depends.
Would you hold MC for the next several decades? Probably not.
Would you hold them sometimes? Of course.
So, it's a timing problem based on active i…
"I guess TDS is a real disease."
I agree that this disease is affecting the entire nation.
Trump Denial Syndrome is unfortunately prevalent.
Biden was a terrible president in the last several decades. Did anyone on this site post several times dai…
Sorry to inform you that you have never offered that "balance". Not even close.
I recall when this guy posted on another forum (some time back) that people who enter into a new environment should adapt, not try to change it (paraphrase). He w…
If you set your goals low enough just think how smug you can be telling everyone what a winner you are.
Pretty funny, how is an 11%+ return with never more than a 1% drawdown from the previous peak considered a low target?
That's not a spin; it's a…
BB, this site has shifted toward deep liberalism and an emphasis on DEI.
Several posters have chosen to make personal, hostile, and inflammatory comments, often resorting to trolling rather than discussion.
BTW, these posts are a violation of this s…
Yardeni is similar to Prof Sigel
Siegel basically has 2 long term opinions
1) Mr. Siegel is stocks perma bull. He has 2 main predictions annually: stocks will make money next year.
2) Stocks will make more than bonds.
The above is not a brain surg…
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/12/16/the-fed-should-look-at-private-sector-jobs-growth-and-not-get-distracted-by-the-massive-federal-government-job-cuts/
Federal government slashed 172,000 jobs in 3 months, Private Sector gained 225,000, the most sinc…
Of the US equity funds I track, SPY is 30th YTD. It has really fallen off the pace recently. QQQ is #8.
Records look better on baseball cards.
Are you suggesting that the SP500 must be the best index for 1 week,and 1-6 months.
It is one of the bes…
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/12/16/the-fed-should-look-at-private-sector-jobs-growth-and-not-get-distracted-by-the-massive-federal-government-job-cuts/
Federal government slashed 172,000 jobs in 3 months, Private Sector gained 225,000, the most sinc…
I explained many times why I haven't held stocks.
We have plenty of money, we can live on CD until death.
I achieved 11+% average annual performance since I retired in 2018 without losing more than 1% from any top.
It looks pretty good to me as a ma…
I was on vacation.
That’s where you should have stayed.
We were better off without you.
I can confirm that this information is 100% accurate.
Some have to stay and complain constantly, no matter what and be blind when their party brought us the wo…
I explained many times why I haven't held stocks.
We have plenty of money, we can live on CD until death.
I achieved 11+% average annual performance since I retired in 2018 without losing more than 1% from any top.
It looks pretty good to me as a ma…
Marks as always leaves the door open just in case he is wrong.
In the memo he discussed a bubble at length.
He also said in the beginning
"All of my observations will be generalities, but I’m hopeful they’ll be relevant nonetheless."
What is the p…
I was on vacation. When I left over a week ago, gas near me was $2.79; today I saw $2.65.
Since 1/22, gas prices have dropped from $3.14 to $2.85 (link). So far, that’s movement in the right direction.
I’m still looking for the worst predictions fr…
marks has never written to offer monthly advice. his main talent has been to deploy loads of committed capital at mkt lows in high tiers of capital structures. that is the only 'signal' one will get, and maybe that is also gone within the maze of…
Is 2025 over already? How long did you have to search for that? Maybe if Mr. Marks knew that the tech billionaires were going to pay for favors he might have hedged his remarks.
2026 is two weeks away, and even that’s irrelevant.
Marks called for a …
My point for years is that future predictions is a fool errand.
I have never invested based on the future, only based on current markets and they can be illogical and longer than anyone can predict.
Over the years, I’ve posted versions of the above …
Most people don’t understand that when overall market risk is very high, correlations shoot up as well. There simply aren’t many asset classes that hold up or truly protect you during those periods.
If you didn’t learn that lesson in 2022, you were…
Several achievements:
* Saudi officials have announced a pledge to invest $1 trillion in future development initiatives.
* SCOTUS allows Texas to use the pro-Trump maps for the 2026 midterms.
* The United States has sunk several vessels involved in …
It might be hard to isolate, given his long term pattern of rambling and instability. How does an insane-adjacent individual exhibit dementia?
Pretty funny. Biden was in obvious decline, yet I never heard any Democrats call for his removal or even …
And YOU, FD1000, have personally provoked the great majority of that by your deliberately false, belligerent and offensive commentary.
Since you have told us ad nauseam how perceptive and brilliant you are it's a bit odd that you haven't noticed …
My point is that you are outraged about Trump from the smallest things to everything while you are silent about your side.
California scandals are known.
Homelessness Spending Mystery: $24B allocated under Gov. Newsom yielded a 40% rise in homeles…
The man is totally corrupt, in every sense of the word.
It's amazing that none of the following bother you more.
* The global tobacco products market (dominated by cigarettes) generated approximately $988 billion in revenue in 2025, according to mar…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2025/09/09/presidency-boosts-trumps-net-worth-by-3-billion-in-a-year/
Donald Trump just had the most lucrative year of his life. His net worth is now estimated at $7.3 billion, up from $4.3 billion in 2024,…
Junkster: When any indicator, including sentiment, reaches never before or rarely before seen levels that is as good a buy signal as you could want. We had two of those last Thursday and Friday. Check this thread where I mentioned them. Also I know …
AAII Bull-Bear Spread
CNN Fear & Greed Index
NYSE %Above 50-dMA
SP500 %Above 50-dMA
The Death-cross, see (link).
Can PE, PE10(CAPE), the economy, recessions, M2, inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, …
" It is refreshing to have an established bond analyst to discuss the process of exploring various sectors of bonds and their inefficiencies."
But I don't see why we need an "established bond analyst" when we already have FD1000.
Well, if your toi…
" It is refreshing to have an established bond analyst to discuss the process of exploring various sectors of bonds and their inefficiencies."
But I don't see why we need an "established bond analyst" when we already have FD1000.
As usual, your sar…
Great interview—excellent explanation of why bonds are different and how skilled managers can take advantage of inefficiencies in the bond market.
If your goal is to earn more with lower volatility, which is where I am since retirement, then a few …
@hank,
Thanks for the link.
Several important points are listed below.
• You can disagree with someone's opinions, but calling that person an idiot or a profane name
is a violation of forum etiquette.
• Posting the same thing over and over again …
Winning, as it relates to investing, means having the financial means to achieve your goals.
Beating some arbitrary benchmark is irrelevant.
True to a degree. I used to play tennis with a guy that sold his business for 10-15 million in 1995. He has …
I stopped listening to Gundlach years ago based on (this).
I love hearing charismatic Gunflach, but I don't trade based on his advice.
The SP500 (chart) broke thru the 50-day MA. It's pretty clear. The next one is the 100-day MA. I don't believe in…
@FD100 - Have you ever mentioned “trend following” by name in any of your previous posts or recommended the best current trends to chase follow for the benefit of members who read you?
There are successful trend following funds. I have 5-6% so i…
Junkster: What is your point on EGRIX. More ancient history. As recently as this year you said on the other board it wasn’t a fund “for a conservative investor like me”.
FD: You are correct. I said the above in March 2025. Then, bonds lost and then…
EGRIX imo is much riskier than a plain vanilla bond fund due to it's strategy -- long/short, lotsa macro calls, frontier market holdings, FX risk, etc..
It has performed really well with an amazingly low SD with the falling dollar as a tailwind. Bu…
EGRIX imo is a better bond alt than QDISX. But certainly still a lot riskier than a straight bond fund. One has to have very high faith in manager capabilities.
Where is the risk?
In the last 1-3-5 years EGRIX did better than "safe" funds such as DO…
OJ bother me? Not for a second.
The wave of immigrants from Asia powering high-tech innovation? They're not just succeeding; they're dominating. These folks have turned Silicon Valley into a global powerhouse, and the results speak for themselves.
…
