Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
DrV,
You can’t have it both ways—either you stand by your predictions or admit you don’t believe them.
I get it now—some people post long narratives that sound smart but are really just designed to please the crowd.
I take a different approach: I …
A tighter labor market, tariffs on $3.4 trillion of imports, tax cut stimulus, and a high level of government spending are all happening. This is not even questionable.
The question is not whether or not these are all inflationary pressures. They …
From the NY Times article:
"Three times in the past half-century, Republicans have enacted large tax cuts
that necessitated significant increases in federal borrowing.
Each time they insisted the cuts would drive economic growth, even claiming
tha…
hank: What many today overlook, I think, is the compounding effect of inflation. So after 5 years of 7.5% annual inflation things aren’t 7.5% higher. They’re closer to 40% higher than they were at the start of the period.
FD: I can't find 40% in the…
its unlike mark carney to waste other people's time with on\off\on.... tariff and trade nonsense.
Canada does have a choice. If they want access to big markets, they will pay more.
If you want to have an app on an iPhone platform, you have to …
@FD1000- My last to you: Stuff It.
The End.
The usual, I "love" your civility.
Whatever you wish me, I wish you the same.
We got a decent monthly job report today. We created 147K jobs, the government lost more jobs, unemployment is still good at …
I'm "impressed."
Many said similar stuff about Trump first term and the economy was pretty good for years until covid.
Who can forget Nobel Prize Krugman "great" forecast in 2016.
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recessi…
Another good week.
The beautiful bill will be signed on the beautiful 4th of July.
U.S. President Trump, on Wednesday, reached a trade deal with Vietnam. Similarly, the U.S. and China also finalized a trade truce reached last month, with Beijing ag…
The dude is brainwashed from hours of MAGA TV broadcasts and Dump rally propaganda. He doesn't listen to reason, just Fox News and whatever outlets Dump spouts from.
That is the essence of MAGA.
I stay busy doing things I enjoy—news isn't a pr…
"If dividend stocks are so great, why did Jack Bogle—after years of research—create the S&P 500 index, not a dividend index? Most, if not all S&P 500 indexes pay dividends.
"Why did Warren Buffett endorse the S&P 500 (SPY) for most inve…
@FD - What shred of joy can you possibly derive from taking Medicaid away from so many Americans in need? What shred of joy can you possibly derive from taking Snap or food stamps out of the mouths of children, babies and the working poor? What sh…
As a follow up to a comment above about Katie S's statement, here's the quote. Correction, I posted she said this yesterday, she actually said it Monday:
"Our market internals are supportive of a bigger rebound," Stockton told clients in a note on…
This debate of divvies vs the SP500 is decades old.
Until the 1970s, many profitable companies paid dividends—it was the standard.
But then came the tech revolution. It started in the '70s, gained momentum in the '80s, and exploded in the decades th…
IMO, it wouldn't change much. It would increase trade fees for the house; more trades usually equal lower performance too, less sleep, more anxiety, stress, and a losing cycle.
FD1000,
I didn't realize you were an auto racing enthusiast.
I'm curious why the Yugo was your platform of choice.
These cars were slow and often criticized for poor safety and reliability.
Did you swap the engine and modify the suspension?
Perhaps…
at FD. You make everything political. We own two cars,, a 2013 and a 2023. The newer car has so much tech and safety features it’s impossible to compare. Does the previous administration get credit for the vast improvements in all cars in the las…
Old_Joe,
It's amazing that every Dem I know including you, are so mad when it's not going your way.
Fortunately, that's how the system works.
I do believe in Dem prez such as Clinton and Kennedy, but the Dems now are so far off.
The answer to that i…
Old_JoeISTM that absolutely none of that is of the slightest interest or importance to FD. As long as he can count his money he's happy.
FD: I stopped counting; I have plenty, but keep posting the same lie.
I worry a lot more about my fellow Americ…
"According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total cost to own and operate an automobile averaged a frightening $12,296 in 2024, roughly 30% higher than a decade ago."
The main reason is the fastest inflation in decades we had under the previ…
As I said already many times before. I care about the numbers now. I never listened to useless economists because they have been wrong many times.
Projections, scary stories and hypotheticals are fine—but the Fed said it would follow the data. Well…
What is weak about the numbers?
All you have done is to talk about the unknown future while the latest numbers show good results.
PCE+PPI are Gov data. I didn't make them up. You just don't like these numbers.
"found an unusual amount of agreement"
How many times were popular agreements wrong? so many times.
Trading headlines is a bad idea. Try to figure out what to do yourself. If you can't, stop reading the "experts" and hardly trade.
"Total Stock Ma…
I started this thread to show good numbers now; that's about it. I wanted to see if anyone could acknowledge it. Nope, and as expected.
I dismiss economists, and that's not a secret. They really shot in the dark, many times were wrong about the futu…
The current numbers don't accurately represent the effect of tariffs.
Get back to me after the September, October, or November numbers are released.
Thank you for your attention to this matter!
The number right now is great.
After Sep we can discuss…
It may be premature to crow about inflation.
Let's see what unfolds in the months ahead.
I don't know the future, but I know a good number when I see one.
It's OK to admit it without...well, eggs are expensive.
It got harder for me to get the fees waived.
Months ago I started using the automatic investment.
Suppose I like Pimix which I don't.
I buy $20. Because it's a very small purchase, there is no fee.
On the same day at night (must be prior to 12 midni…
"No way that Trump brought down inflation in only 5 months with "America First" policies. "
Yes way. If the numbers went the opposite way, you would scream it's all Trump's fault. That was easy :-).
When I looked at VWINX=Vanguard Wellesley at Schwab, the Schwab site says up to $74.95
I entered a buy for $10K for VWINX. The transaction says zero. Same for DODGX.
I haven't used VG or D&C for decades. I can't remember one fund I was intereste…
When I looked at VWINX=Vanguard Wellesley at Schwab, the Schwab site says up to $74.95
I entered a buy for $10K for VWINX. The transaction says zero. Same for DODGX.
I haven't used VG or D&C for decades. I can't remember one fund I was intereste…
Predicting the short term direction of the markets is of course a fool’s errand. Nonetheless it seemed very unlikely that this particular Monday would be so positive. The markets disconnect from events continues to shock me. I guess FD can take a…
Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for s…
"Trump created the problem"
"A real master negotiator"
Mmm...the report below is a reminder.
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/06/19/iranian-and-iranian-backed-attacks-against-americans-1979-present/
I've found almost everything on M* to be of little value.
The only thing that I like is their charts, especially for bonds, because they include the daily distributions.
Bernstein recommends a rule of thumb, based on annuity payouts and spending patterns late in life, that you should have 20-25 times your residual living expenses (after pensions and Social Security) invested solely in safe assets. No stocks at all. …
Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for s…
Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for s…
More good news despite many economists.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/under-trump-blue-collar-wages-soar-at-fastest-rate-since-1969
"Wages for blue-collar workers are up more in the first five months of President Donald Trump’s second term than u…
