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  • I read it this morning.

    Probably good advice for anyone interested in buying stocks. Probably better off listening to Munger than reading the daily stock-touting churn generated by Dziubinski for M*.

    OTOH, IIRC, the edition of Random Walk I read back in the 80's suggested throwing darts to find 20 stocks to approximate the market. Not sure what you would throw darts at these days, since no one publishes daily stock prices on paper--so far as I know.

    But I suppose that's not what Munger is suggesting.

    Well, how much cash in Munger holding these days, and how is his portfolio doing?

  • edited August 2023
    “Well, how much cash in Munger holding these days, and how is his portfolio doing?”

    Berkshire remains heavy on cash. Best recollection is north of 20%. Around 40% of their equity stake is in AAPL (+54% YTD).

    Berkshire lost a bit in 2022, but has done very well this year. Better than 10% YTD.

    To each his own. If diversification is the refuge of cowards, I’m guilty as charged. It’s harder to muck things up ISTM if widely diversified. No single stupid move is going to screw things up too badly.
  • hank said:

    Well, how much cash in Munger holding these days, and how is his portfolio doing?

    Heavy on cash. Best recollection is north of 20%. Around 40% of their equity stake is in AAPL.

    Berkshire lost a bit in 2022, but has done very well this year. Better than 10% YTD.

    Thank you Hank.

    Of course, that doesn't include the companies they own outright, but that's not the reason I no longer buy Benjamin Moore paints. We still buy See's Candies from time to time.
  • edited August 2023
    ” Of course, that doesn't include the companies they own outright … “

    Yes. That sounds right. And something I hadn’t considered before. Thanks @WABAC

    Paint? Grand theft larceny. Who has time to shop around for paint prices when doing a job? The local outlets have you over a barrel (err … “can” ). $73 for a gallon of custom mixed interior latex this summer (including 6% state tax).
  • 73 plus tax = extortion.
  • Haven't bought paint recently. I buy Dunn Edwards when I do. They provide Munsell numbers on their colors which makes it a lot easier to do a great job -- assuming you're doing the proper prep work.

    Benjamin Moore's color "system" requires an advanced degree in hermeneutics, and a lot of sample pots and guess work.
  • edited August 2023
    WABAC said:

    Haven't bought paint recently. I buy Dunn Edwards when I do. They provide Munsell numbers on their colors which makes it a lot easier to do a great job -- assuming you're doing the proper prep work.

    Benjamin Moore's color "system" requires an advanced degree in hermeneutics, and a lot of sample pots and guess work.

    I think the neighborhood Ace carries mainly Moore paint if you’re fussy about color / texture. They do lend out their color sample books (with like 10,000 colors) - handy if you’re trying to match to an existing wall. Longer drive to Lowe’s and HD. Not a lot of difference in price. I’ve tried cheaper brands from Walmart in the past with mixed results. Not worth a gamble for any important interior job considering all the labor involved (moving furniture, etc.)
  • The main problem I have with Benny Moore is that they don't give you any numbers to fit onto any color wheel. All their descriptions of color are subjective, if not romantic.

    Sherwin Williams at least gives you RGB and Hex value numbers that will work with a color wheel.

    Dunn Edwards is concentrated out West. I think there is a paint company back in the old country that uses their color system.

    Never shopped for paint at a big box. Can't comment on what they offer.
  • I based my system on Buffett's (and Munger) 3 important rules: Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1 and Rule 3: Diversification is a protection against ignorance. I added a fourth rule: momentum. My system was born in early 2000. I didn't want to own stocks so I used funds.
    Basically: my generic system looks for the best 5 wide range funds with good risk-adjusted performance, keeps changing them using momentum, and each fund must perform well. The idea is to be mostly in the right category + achieve better risk-adjusted performance by looking at performance first and then selecting the best SD, Sharpe funds.
    Since 2017, I changed to only 2-3 funds, after all, I can't find more than 2-3 great ideas.

    BTW, Buffett also said many times that most investors should own one fund, the SP500.
  • edited August 2023
    Buffett's investment process is focused on purchasing companies with competitive advantages
    (wide moats) at a fair price and holding them "forever."
    He believes that at least 98% of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.
    FWIW, I find it intriguing when individuals reference Buffett even though
    their investment process is diametrically opposed to his.
  • edited August 2023

    Buffett's investment process is focused on purchasing companies with competitive advantages
    (wide moats) at a fair price and holding them "forever."
    He believes that at least 98% of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.
    FWIW, I find it intriguing when some people reference Buffett although their investment processes
    are diametrically opposed.

    +1

    Buffett is a glib, but likable fellow. He’s said a lot of things over his 70+ years of investing. Need to prove a point? Search for a Buffett adage. You’ll likely find a witty remark to support your viewpoint. Right up there with the master, BF.
  • edited August 2023

    Buffett's investment process is focused on purchasing companies with competitive advantages
    (wide moats) at a fair price and holding them "forever."
    He believes that at least 98% of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.
    FWIW, I find it intriguing when individuals reference Buffett even though
    their investment process is diametrically opposed to his.

    Maybe the word BASED isn't the best but I explained what I do and it all came to me from Buffett. I read other books and articles but none lead me to these ideas.

    Diversification according to Buffett is the SP500, not 5-10-20 funds which is how most invest. I disagree with "extensively diversify" part.

    https://news.yahoo.com/warren-buffett-investing-advice-thats-beaten-most-pros-for-12-straight-years-100054380.html
    Quote"I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have for a long, long time to people," billionaire investor Warren Buffett said at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders meeting last May.
    BTW, Bogle also recommends 2 or 3 funds VTI/VOO + (maybe international index) + BND.

    The funny thing is that almost nobody buys and holds the above for decades, but they all know what diversification means. I have seen a lot more investors who lag the market when they own more funds, I mean over 5-7 funds. Generally, more funds = more trading = lower performance. This is a generic statement not toward anybody.
  • edited August 2023
    “I have seen a lot more investors who lag the market when they own more funds, I mean over 5-7 funds.”

    Are you an investment professional? Where did you come by these individual’s performance histories? Must be from somewhere else. It’s quite rare for anyone here to ever post their annual returns. I don't. Can think of only 3 or 4 members who did state their ‘22 performance. For longer periods - none that I’m aware of. Your logic is questionable here anyway. The S&P fell over 18% in 2022. Certainly, “leading” the S&P with a loss of “only 15%” would not have been a sign of superior intelligence or investment acumen.

    I think Buffet is really cool. I’ve read dozens of his quotes. His bottom line seems to be to do your due diligence and buy companies you would like to own forever. He often compares buying a company to planting a tree. Sit back and watch it grow. But it is also true that for those who lack his ability or resources to research a company in depth, he thinks index investing is best. Temper that, however, with his quote: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." That means Buffet does believe investors should take into consideration market valuations and public sentiment in deciding when to buy or sell equities.

    Finally, there’s Buffett’s Rule #22 - ”If you want to invest well, don’t be a know-it-all.”
  • bf perhaps bloody fool?!
  • carew388 said:

    bf perhaps bloody fool?!

    :)

    ...Could BE.
  • edited August 2023
    Crash said:

    @hank. BF?

    Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790)

    On Humility

    - “Humility makes great men twice honourable “

    - “To be humble to superiors is a duty, to equals courtesy, to inferiors nobleness”

    - “If thou hast wit and learning, add to it wisdom and modesty.”

    On money

    “If you would know the value of money, go and try to borrow some; he that goes a- borrowing goes a- sorrowing"

    ”Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt”

    “A Penny Saved Is a Penny Earned”

    “He that is of the opinion money will do everything may well be suspected of doing everything for money”

    Many of these proverbs appeared in Franklin’s Poor Richard’s Almanac.:

    ”The Almanack contained the calendar, weather, poems, sayings and astronomical and astrological information that a typical almanac of the period would contain. Franklin also included the occasional mathematical exercise, and the Almanack from 1750 features an early example of demographics. It is chiefly remembered, however, for being a repository of Franklin's aphorisms and proverbs, many of which live on in American English. These maxims typically counsel thrift and courtesy, with a dash of cynicism.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poor_Richard's_Almanack
  • edited August 2023
    "Need to prove a point? Search for a (BF) adage. You’ll likely find a witty remark to support your viewpoint."

    My vote for "the master, BF" - ol' Ben Franklin

    Oopps- I see above that's been answered. Oh well, at least I was right, for once.
  • edited August 2023
    You get the A for the day OJ. And thanks!
  • And now I know, too! :)
  • edited August 2023
    Hank: Are you an investment professional? Where did you come by these individual’s performance histories? Must be from somewhere else. It’s quite rare for anyone here to ever post their annual returns. I don't.

    FD: this is an observation after posting for over 15 years on several sites. I can't find where I posted my portfolio performance here.
    Do professionals make more money than the SP500 over a long time frame? Bogle and Malkiel (Random Walk) proved it already decades ago that VOO/VTI beat most fund pros over a longer time.
  • edited August 2023
    FD - Please use quotation marks around or italicize my words when you quote them so readers know you’re quoting me. Thanks.

    To your point … If hanging around discussion boards 15 years makes someone an expert, than over a dozen here, including myself, would qualify. You’re very good at making broad sweeping critical remarks about those you encounter on such sites. One is left to question your motive.

    Regarding your previous assertion: “I have seen a lot more investors who lag the market when they own more funds, I mean over 5-7 funds.” One wonders why you don’t simply return to those other discussion boards you frequented for 15 years where you gleaned the data? You’re misplaced here because the data you profess to possess did not come from this board. As I said previously, the vast majority on this site are not inclined to post personal performance histories.
  • edited August 2023
    Hank, I didn't say that I was an expert or that 15 years make me an expert. You made up these conclusions. I have been posting here for years and will keep posting, I never told anyone they are MISPLACED anywhere as you did.
    I state my opinion, how about stating yours? Anytime you don't agree with my statement, you are welcome to do so with data and explanations.

    Here is why most lag the SP500, one source (https://www.thebalancemoney.com/why-average-investors-earn-below-average-market-returns-2388519). There are many more.

    Investment sites are for discussing different ideas and opinions without attacking anyone personally. If I offended you in any way, I apologize. Let me know.
  • Yes, behavioral finance. And less than average investor returns. We've all seen that stuff. It makes sense. Which is why, most of the time, I take the offered advice in the article you linked, and do nothing. A couple of years ago, I put money into a real stinker. I waited too long to get out, but finally did it. Better to get out than not to do it.

    Is any of us perfect? On another discussion board, I grew tired of one guy's repeated follow-ups about anything that anyone offered, expressing always that he knew better than anyone else what ought to be done. Maybe that un-tasty "flavor" you seem to frequently offer the rest of us here is the reason why you receive less than glorious and glowing feedback. I had a classmate who was that way, years ago. He was often correct, but insufferable. A grating personality.
  • I am probably the worse investor at MFO. My ignorance/incompetence is, or should be, notorious. Yet I am among the "perfect". My before RMD is more than sufficient so RMD (before tax) amount gets reinvested. I have no debt. So far, at age 74, I am independent with a little help from the delivery guys who I compensate handsomely. So, yes, right now, I am perfect. But, maybe, not by anyone else's definition.
  • edited August 2023
    Anna said:

    I am probably the worse investor at MFO. My ignorance/incompetence is, or should be, notorious. Yet I am among the "perfect". My before RMD is more than sufficient so RMD (before tax) amount gets reinvested. I have no debt. So far, at age 74, I am independent with a little help from the delivery guys who I compensate handsomely. So, yes, right now, I am perfect. But, maybe, not by anyone else's definition.

    IMO there is no 'perfect' investing strategy or style. Everyone has their own tolerances, pain points, goals, and desires. I for one don't care if I keep pace with the SPX or 'only' make 9% per year while not worrying and still sleeping well at night. If I lose less than the SPX in a down period, I'll still sleep well even if I'm in the red for a bit. By contrast, some people (mainly institutions needing bragging rights and TV-trading retail traders) feel like failures if they don't track or beat the market and lie awake with each 2% down-wiggle in the index. Each to our own.

    (I've said the same thing, or variants of this for years in active trading forums/chats ... there is no 'Holy Grail' technical indicator that's always perfect, just like there's no one investing strategy/tactic that works 100% of the time w/o losses.)

    It's also why I don't like index funds. You track 'the market' but many times, like now, the 'market' returns are really only from the top 5-10 names. So if I was looking, I'd just own them and avoid the drag.
  • edited August 2023
    @FD - Personal offense? None. But thanks. I appreciate the sentiment.

    From your latest linked article - Why Average Investors Earn Below-Average Market Returns :

    “Investor behavior is illogical and often based on emotion. That does not lead to wise long-term investing decisions.”

    Yes. That’s pretty widely known and has been discussed here before. But it says nothing regarding your earlier (unsupported) assertion, “I have seen a lot more investors who lag the market when they own more funds, I mean over 5-7 funds.”

    In addition to the obvious disconnect between what you asserted earlier and what your linked article says, let’s recognize a few relevant facts.

    - “Average investors” includes all those with workplace defined contribution plans. That’s a lot of people who may have little or no investment interest or experience. And it includes all ages, from young adults buying their first home to folks with 50+ years investing experience. Lately, too, it has come to include the thrill-seeking “meme” crowd with little regard for fundamentals. All these and more fall within the realm of ”average investor”.

    - “Average investors” don’t frequent investment forums like this one. Can’t speak for wherever else you’ve been, but this community represents a select slice of the investing public. Participants possess above average intelligence, are well read and highly motivated. Some have professional backgrounds in finance or financial journalism.

    - To your initial assertion about number of funds … . I will contend that 8-10 high quality funds along the lines of PRWCX or JHQAX should perform as well on average as 1 or 2 equally high quality ones. The number of funds alone does not determine whether one “beats the index.” The overall quality of those holdings may.

    - Indexes carry no cash reserve as funds do. So they have a built-in advantage actively managed portfolios do not possess.. “Tit-for-tat” active will underperform an index.

    - Not all investors want to track or match the S&P’s performance. Some of us are pleased we didn’t lose 18% last year. We’ll sacrifice some future return if it means avoiding such dramatic 1-year losses.

    - Your criticism of owning more than 5-7 funds misses the point that many investors manage several portfolios. I have a Roth, Traditional IRA, and Taxable account. Each is viewed in a different time-frame and tax perspective. Some have long-term portfolios, mid-range ones and short term investments for more immediate needs. Some manage for a spouse. Some have limited-option workplace plans - plus other outside investments.

    Thanks for the linked article. But, since it contained nothing I didn’t already know, I checked the “not helpful” box at the end.
  • I’ve heard it said, and agree, that diversification is a risk management strategy— not a way to achieve high performance. Face it, nobody really knows which markets or sectors will perform better or worse in the future. By diversifying, you are covering more bases. So, you’ll avoid being over exposed in poor performing area while capturing the better performing ones.

    Almost certainly, you can achieve better performance by focusing on only a few areas — if you are skilled or lucky enough to pick the right ones. Not many investors are successful at this approach, which is why most investment advisers will tell people to diversify, diversify, diversify. Another key to this approach is to buy and hold your investments long term. If you are forever chasing winners and selling losers, you stand a good chance of hurting your overall performance. Of course, some investors are better at picking winners and selling losers, and others have a penchant for picking losers and selling winners.

    Buffet’s advice about the S&P is sound, but certainly looks better after the past 15 years. However, there have been periods (eg, 2000-2010) when the S&P did not perform well and you would have greatly improved your overall performance by owning other asset classes, such as foreign stocks, small caps, REITs, etc. For that reason, I prefer total market index funds.
  • edited August 2023
    Diversification doesn't guarantee better performance or better risk/SD or better risk-adjusted performance. Being in 10 funds isn't necessarily better than 2 funds. I could be wrong but I can't find any research that proves that more funds are a better choice, no matter the age and goals.
    Having 10 accounts isn't an excuse to own more funds than 5 accounts, because I use the same funds in different accounts.
    There are many ways to Rome. I have learned and changed over the years. I never believed in a static style no matter what.
    I also learned and love the exceptions to many rules and used some of these funds over the years. These funds are unique and scarce. 2 easy ones have been PRWCX+PIMIX. Many don't comfortable investing a big % in one fund, I'm not one of them.
    But, many investors can benefit by using a simple portfolio with just several funds and hardly doing anything and avoiding common mistakes. Here are several examples: https://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio%20
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