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I do not see any green across any of my risk asset watch lists. Good timing on your recent selling.
Are you done selling or more risk off to go?
What percentage of portfolio are you targeting for low to no risk (fixed income + MM + cash) with all the selling? “Low risk” is a personal criteria and is not meant to be measured and evaluated by others. Apologies if you already shared, if you are comfortable, pl share your age as IMO portfolio stories must be read in context.
The timing just felt helpless, so to speak, meaning things rocketing up for no good or even good reason, really. One might think my orange-menace hatred would modulate.
I will be back buying JQUA and TCAF at some point, I am sure. Combined they make it unnecessary to add QLTY, it appears.
I am done selling for now. The remaining bond funds are all significantly underwater. I am increasingly risk-averse at 77, sure --- we have enough to make it the next decade and more, even in Massachusetts --- but with grandchildren, I hear the greed call sometimes, and we also want to leave moneys to their parents as feasible. (I also have this newly rich friend who asked me for advice, so I have been rethinking many things; mentioned a few posts back.)
So I am now probably 85% in ~4.5% mm funds at the moment plus the several bond funds underwater for years now. Maybe more than 85%. (The bond funds represent a dumbass decision, although I did lots of study at the time, read smarties here and elsewhere, felt that interest factors were already baked in, blah blah.)
One droll thing that happened, not that you asked, is that 3-4 individual stocks, bought on rando tips here and from plutocrat friends (and again I researched, and so they dove soon after I bought them, natch), just went significantly above breakeven the last month; and therefore I sold them too.
FMSDX turned out not to do quite what I had expected ('a good idea until not', as the quip goes), and so I was waiting for it to get significantly above breakeven, and it did, and out it went. I woulda done better w oldies FBALX and FPURX. Or even as well, sometimes better, in AOR and AOA.
QLTY is too focused (not diversified enough) so it can make idiosyncratic price moves. I would recommend SPHQ to anyone exploring Large Quality factor. I happen to own both.
In the IRA: Flipped FDVV for DGRW. I think I have enough Fidelity stock-picking mojo between FMILX and FDSVX. DGRW has under-performed recently but is roughly equal over the last 3 and 5 year periods with lower volatility.
Flipped XMHQ for BIAVX. XMHQ has been too much fun for the IRA. I continue to hold XMHQ in the taxable. Here is the strategy for BIAVX:
The Fund seeks to invest in companies at discounts to their business value, which the managers consider to be the present value of sustainable free cash flow. To identify these investment opportunities, the portfolio managers employ a disciplined, bottom-up investment process highlighted by rigorous, internally generated fundamental research. Accordingly, the portfolio managers only make investments when the managers believe that there is a sufficient discount to business value to mitigate the loss of capital in the event of adverse circumstances.
Sold FBALX. Duration was too long, and it's too volatile for me. I have enough Fidelity stock picking to suit me. PRWCX is the one allocation fund to rule them all in my portfolio.
Bought FFRHX. Over the last five years it has done a lot better than all those steady Eddy intermediate core funds we're supposed to own.
Sold GLIFX. Nice fund, but since I'm trying to consolidate it seems like an easy one to do without. Proceeds will be divided between FSUTX and IYK.
In the taxable: I put down markers in FIW, AIRR, PAVE, and GRID. There was a lot less overlap between the last three than I expected.
I have plenty of dry powder in the taxable for future buying opportunities.
@WABAC: not sure what putting down markers means. I have marked my territory in AIRR and PAVE, but I no longer own FIW. I think you have done OK in GRID, IIRC.
Hi @BenWP. A marker for me is a little bit I put down in the taxable to remind me to put down a little more when the price is right.
I still hold GRID and FIW in the IRA, and will probably hold on as long as possible. I have always regretted that I didn't buy them for the taxable at the same time. Of course I'm paying a premium now over what I paid in July 2022, or even November 2021.
They say we shouldn't invest based on politics. It seems to me small bets placed on energy infrastructure, infrastructure, and re-shoring were reasonable bets regardless of who won. I think water will be a reliable long-term bet at least.
I probably will regret but I sold out of FNMA. I have been watching a lot of Trump trades reversing in their post election price bumps and this turned down today for the first time in a week.
@BaluBalu ….it stabilized a bit this afternoon. It spiked up to be my third largest individual holding yesterday, but I’ll continue to watch and wait. Some folks with deep pockets close to Trump have a boatload…Ackman specifically.
@BaluBalu ….it stabilized a bit this afternoon. It spiked up to be my third largest individual holding yesterday, but I’ll continue to watch and wait. Some folks with deep pockets close to Trump have a boatload…Ackman specifically.
I had updated my previous post but then saw your post. So, I am posting my update here.
Near the close, I bought back 50% of what I sold. Bought back at a higher price than I sold at. Talk about FOMO!
Unlike you, I did not buy much because I did not see anyone in this forum buying- lack of confirmation! Now that you mention, I do remember many of Trump friends buying months before the election. Interestingly, a lot of Trump faithful in this forum are very conservatively positioned on the risk spectrum. I guess people who are making money are making it quietly while the rest are caught up in election related noise.
@BaluBalu ...I've owned this for over 8 years, so it's certainly not a Trump trade. It's a play when FNMA exits from conservatorship where they were incorrectly/illegally positioned many years ago. If I remember correctly, it was the one thing in Bruce Berkowitz's FAIRX portfolio which was worth considering, so I sold FAIRX and bought FNMA.
But...it's a wager....a flier, which most find inappropriate.
I knew it was not a Trump trade for you because you did not post in the past few weeks about it. Hope it works out for you. It is a Trump trade for me. I sold some today because Rick Scott lost. Flyer it is.
Old limit orders for IXJ starting to fill. Healthcare/Pharma is falling out of favor.
I'm confused, with the Orange Tong in control, there are sure to be rollbacks when it comes to patient protections and coverages--- meaning more profit for the healthcare extortionists, no? Yes?
Old limit orders for IXJ starting to fill. Healthcare/Pharma is falling out of favor.
I'm confused, with the Orange Tong in control, there are sure to be rollbacks when it comes to patient protections and coverages--- meaning more profit for the healthcare extortionists, no? Yes?
I just know the sector was hot, now its very much not.
Excerpt from a recent article.....
"The healthcare sector leaned lower in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s election victory, as some investors cheered the potential change in Medicare reimbursement policies, while others jeered what a new administration might do about subsidies for health-insurance exchanges and vaccine programs."
We took profit on our US equity and bond % since the election concluded. Lost confidence in both.
The likelihood of soft landing scenario is fading as sticky inflation and employment number. FED is in no hurry to cut rate in December and there is likely fewer cuts in 2025. DT policy will add to federal deficit and higher inflation. There is no free lunch when the imported cheap goods are facing 60% higher tariff.
I believe Trump watches stock market pretty carefully (one can never be sure, Trump has no fixed core, he has no issues flipping 5 times on a position in 5 minutes) and uses that as a measuring stick for success.
Imo 60% China tariff is a bluff to get China to the bargaining table. Trump has used these kind of outrageous bluffs throughout his career. If indeed he goes with it AND stock market tanks, there will be a quick reversal of policy or some middle ground compromise.
All speculation of course, forget his inner circle, not even Trump himself knows what his position will be in in the next 5 mins. So I pay no attention to whatever his "inner circle" is stating. Lighthizer is a tool as is everybody else around him.
In the IRA: Redistributed some of the cash I have been sitting on to get me up to 50% bonds. To that end I went for actively managed etf's that had positive returns in 2022. So I now have equal-sized positions in VRIG, PULS, and JAAA.
I did look hard at CBRDX, but decided to stay with the plan as described above.
I still have cash to deploy on the equity side--where I am at 40%-- but I'm in no rush.
Nothing shaking in the taxable but the leaves on the trees. I am looking for opportunities to buy.
@WABAC, once in a century pandemic is not a good data point for planning. Seems like PULS and VRIG did fine in 2022 and while nothing alarming, JAAA chart of 2022 was less than my expectation. I personally would count all three in the dry powder bucket. You are well positioned to take advantage of the impending food fight.
Part of my Trump trade was reducing my HC sector overweight. Started before the election. Stopped the three days after election and restarted this week but was not fast enough to eliminate the overweight before RFK was nominated. Even if you did not have HC funds / stocks, PRWCX alone gave you a material HC overweight. This market continues to expose my weakness in execution - dreaming alone is not enough. Now, I just have to wait to see if he is not appointed.
Investors cheered the decisive election results and peaceful transition of power. The SPX gave back all of post election pop as reality sunk in that known unknowns are less problematic than unknown unknowns.
Even if you did not have HC funds / stocks, PRWCX alone gave you a material HC overweight.
As of 10-31-2024, PRWCX held a 14.7% HC allocation within the fund. Healthcare has just over an 11% allocation within the S&P 500.
You are right. It went from 23.8% as of 9/30 to 14.7% as of 10/31 which is remarkable and nice. It was so overweight for so long but did not include GLP1 in the top 10 holdings as of those dates! Thanks.
P.S.: people should check their PrimeCap funds. VHCAX had HC at 30% and has big under weight in Financials and Industrials as of 10/31. I had cut it down but should have gone to zero. Now, at less than 1% of PV, I should clean it out.
In the taxable: Did some minor tax-lost harvesting selling FYLD and IHDG while I still had a little to the plus side. To stay fully invested in the dividend sleeve, I added to FDVV, DIVO, and bought RDIV so that they are roughly equally weighted today.
I'm at 37% cash in the taxable, so there is lots of room to add to the growthier side when the time comes.
In the IRA: In order to keep the Widows and Orphans sleeve fully invested, I took the proceeds from selling GLIFX and bought IYK and FSUTX so that they are roughly equal today. That will get me part way to 50% equity, but I'm in no hurry to get there.
Comments
Are you done selling or more risk off to go?
What percentage of portfolio are you targeting for low to no risk (fixed income + MM + cash) with all the selling? “Low risk” is a personal criteria and is not meant to be measured and evaluated by others. Apologies if you already shared, if you are comfortable, pl share your age as IMO portfolio stories must be read in context.
The timing just felt helpless, so to speak, meaning things rocketing up for no good or even good reason, really. One might think my orange-menace hatred would modulate.
I will be back buying JQUA and TCAF at some point, I am sure. Combined they make it unnecessary to add QLTY, it appears.
I am done selling for now. The remaining bond funds are all significantly underwater. I am increasingly risk-averse at 77, sure --- we have enough to make it the next decade and more, even in Massachusetts --- but with grandchildren, I hear the greed call sometimes, and we also want to leave moneys to their parents as feasible. (I also have this newly rich friend who asked me for advice, so I have been rethinking many things; mentioned a few posts back.)
So I am now probably 85% in ~4.5% mm funds at the moment plus the several bond funds underwater for years now. Maybe more than 85%. (The bond funds represent a dumbass decision, although I did lots of study at the time, read smarties here and elsewhere, felt that interest factors were already baked in, blah blah.)
One droll thing that happened, not that you asked, is that 3-4 individual stocks, bought on rando tips here and from plutocrat friends (and again I researched, and so they dove soon after I bought them, natch), just went significantly above breakeven the last month; and therefore I sold them too.
FMSDX turned out not to do quite what I had expected ('a good idea until not', as the quip goes), and so I was waiting for it to get significantly above breakeven, and it did, and out it went. I woulda done better w oldies FBALX and FPURX. Or even as well, sometimes better, in AOR and AOA.
QLTY is too focused (not diversified enough) so it can make idiosyncratic price moves. I would recommend SPHQ to anyone exploring Large Quality factor. I happen to own both.
it certainly had quite the summer
Flipped XMHQ for BIAVX. XMHQ has been too much fun for the IRA. I continue to hold XMHQ in the taxable. Here is the strategy for BIAVX: Sold FBALX. Duration was too long, and it's too volatile for me. I have enough Fidelity stock picking to suit me. PRWCX is the one allocation fund to rule them all in my portfolio.
Bought FFRHX. Over the last five years it has done a lot better than all those steady Eddy intermediate core funds we're supposed to own.
Sold GLIFX. Nice fund, but since I'm trying to consolidate it seems like an easy one to do without. Proceeds will be divided between FSUTX and IYK.
In the taxable: I put down markers in FIW, AIRR, PAVE, and GRID. There was a lot less overlap between the last three than I expected.
I have plenty of dry powder in the taxable for future buying opportunities.
I still hold GRID and FIW in the IRA, and will probably hold on as long as possible. I have always regretted that I didn't buy them for the taxable at the same time. Of course I'm paying a premium now over what I paid in July 2022, or even November 2021.
They say we shouldn't invest based on politics. It seems to me small bets placed on energy infrastructure, infrastructure, and re-shoring were reasonable bets regardless of who won. I think water will be a reliable long-term bet at least.
You must be very happy with AIRR these days.
Near the close, I bought back 50% of what I sold. Bought back at a higher price than I sold at. Talk about FOMO!
Unlike you, I did not buy much because I did not see anyone in this forum buying- lack of confirmation! Now that you mention, I do remember many of Trump friends buying months before the election. Interestingly, a lot of Trump faithful in this forum are very conservatively positioned on the risk spectrum. I guess people who are making money are making it quietly while the rest are caught up in election related noise.
Perhaps stale news but 13F filings would be out today or tomorrow.
But...it's a wager....a flier, which most find inappropriate.
Excerpt from a recent article.....
"The healthcare sector leaned lower in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s election victory, as some investors cheered the potential change in Medicare reimbursement policies, while others jeered what a new administration might do about subsidies for health-insurance exchanges and vaccine programs."
The likelihood of soft landing scenario is fading as sticky inflation and employment number. FED is in no hurry to cut rate in December and there is likely fewer cuts in 2025. DT policy will add to federal deficit and higher inflation. There is no free lunch when the imported cheap goods are facing 60% higher tariff.
Imo 60% China tariff is a bluff to get China to the bargaining table. Trump has used these kind of outrageous bluffs throughout his career. If indeed he goes with it AND stock market tanks, there will be a quick reversal of policy or some middle ground compromise.
All speculation of course, forget his inner circle, not even Trump himself knows what his position will be in in the next 5 mins. So I pay no attention to whatever his "inner circle" is stating. Lighthizer is a tool as is everybody else around him.
I did look hard at CBRDX, but decided to stay with the plan as described above.
I still have cash to deploy on the equity side--where I am at 40%-- but I'm in no rush.
Nothing shaking in the taxable but the leaves on the trees. I am looking for opportunities to buy.
Any way, Thanks for sharing @WABAC. 60% dry powder? Good for you.
BTW, SPX is back to where it was on Oct 15. IWM is still some 2% above. So, people have not entirely given up!
PULS, VRIG, and JAAA suffered drawdowns in 2020 and/or 2022 but bounced back.
Definitely short, and mostly floating except for MNHAX and whatever is in PRWCX.
Investors cheered the decisive election results and peaceful transition of power. The SPX gave back all of post election pop as reality sunk in that known unknowns are less problematic than unknown unknowns.
P.S.: people should check their PrimeCap funds. VHCAX had HC at 30% and has big under weight in Financials and Industrials as of 10/31. I had cut it down but should have gone to zero. Now, at less than 1% of PV, I should clean it out.
I'm at 37% cash in the taxable, so there is lots of room to add to the growthier side when the time comes.
In the IRA: In order to keep the Widows and Orphans sleeve fully invested, I took the proceeds from selling GLIFX and bought IYK and FSUTX so that they are roughly equal today. That will get me part way to 50% equity, but I'm in no hurry to get there.