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  • edited April 2023
    Trimmed back the following over last several weeks (on up days):
    1. Smaller cap stocks
    2. Growth stocks
    3. Commodities

    Bought more as CDs and T bills matures:
    1. Short term treasury, government agency bonds, and investment grade bonds.
    2. Total bond index fund and longer duration IG bonds.
    3. Defensive sector funds - consumer staples, utility and healthcare.
  • Put on a starter position in Connors Hedged Equity, CVRDX...USA Quality Blue Chippers , Covered calls and some puts....In this market, I like that the guys running the show have a little grey hair on 'em...I want experienced pilots flying my plane, not some guys who were smoking weed in CO flying a twin prop takine sky divers out for a jump....

    The guy who runs the show at Connors, prolly learnt a ton from his Dad...and I get the feeling he is going to do everything to honor his Dad's legacy with integrity and performance....

    Just sayin'....

    Baseball Fan
  • Stop loss orders exited positions in both ASML and SCHW. Did OK on ASML, not so good on SCHW. Win some, lose some... nothing new there.
  • @Old_Joe - for future reference, check out FSELX the next time you want to play with the semi's. I had been closely observing Buffetts play with TSMN and had considered joinging him but other buys elsewhere got in the way. Once he existed it all I stayed away. BUT they are what drives tech and they are worth paying attention to. I liked ASML also but couldn't afford it.
  • @Mark- thanks for the suggestion- I'm going to take a look at FSELX right now.
  • edited April 2023
    Sometimes it’s better to cut bait. I messed with IVZ (Invesco) midway through last year. Couldn’t take the wild gyrations - mostly down. Dumped it fast. I don’t use stop loss. If I have a lot of confidence in something I’ll buy down in increments.

    If anybody has money making suggestions (other than cash) pass them along. Markets are starting to rot. Vix at 17. Even Barron’s had commentary that it’s become “Dullsville” of late. I suspect a Fed pause in May (widely unexpected) would push markets higher.
  • If anybody has money making suggestions (other than cash) pass them along
    @hank, I've been watching utilities, RYU and ECLN. They both started trending up 3 or 4 weeks ago. Bought a little of each, but not enough to make a difference.

    from Investopedia:

    With a strong capital pipeline, increasing regulatory support, and corrected valuations that remain historically rich, utilities are poised to return to steady growth without volatility. “After a volatile stretch for utilities stocks, we expect a return to steady, fundamental growth.” Mar 28, 2023

    For 2023, the outlook for the utilities sector is strong. The sector's defensive characteristics could continue to look attractive to investors seeking shelter during market and economic choppiness.

    Are utility stocks a good investment during a recession?
    Defensive stocks, like shares of healthcare or utilities companies, are often cited as recession-proof investments. This is because consumers still need to purchase medical care and electricity, regardless of the economic situation.
  • “Defensive stocks, like shares of healthcare or utilities companies, are often cited as recession-proof investments.”

    What recession?
  • Standby for countdown... Ten... Nine... Eight...
  • edited April 2023
    Many forecasters are predicting a mild recession in the second half of the year.
    We'll see what happens...
  • Portfolio is at 57 stocks. 34 bonds 6 cash 3 other.

    Just added a tiny bit to SCHP. TIPs and BHB. (BHB recent report: EPS beat, but revenue missed. I'm still going to hang onto this one. It will be a long-term hold, unless the bottom falls out and the planet vaporizes by nuclear attack or else the sun becomes a supernova prematurely.)
  • edited April 2023
    50.2% Alts - including 2 stocks (Neutral = 50%)
    20% Fixed Income (Neutral = 22%)
    23.5% Equity Gwth + Real Assets (Neutral = 22%)
    6.3% Various Hedges (Neutral = 6%)

    Feels like treading water.
  • Yes, there was that rally early in the year. Gone. Range-bound, since. I expect a positive reaction after the Fed pauses. Equities and Junk will do even better after rates begin to come down, eh? Even so, my Junk is not doing badly, already, y-t-d.
  • edited April 2023
    Hi @Old_Joe et al I did a quick check and ASML was about $340/share at the end of October, 2022........same time frame that bonds began an upward move in pricing. A sell now is not a bad thing, eh? But, IMHO; remains at this point in time as a special company.

    --- Is ASML the only EUV company?
    ASML is the only company in the world that owns the technology and makes the machinery to make physical chips out of silicon wafers. Chipmakers like TSMC, NVIDIA and Intel won't be able to make the chips they do without ASML's EUV technology. Jan 23, 2023

    --- Is there any alternative to ASML?
    ASML competitors include MKS Instruments, Lam Research, Ultratech, Cadence Design Systems and ASM International. ASML ranks 1st in Diversity Score on Comparably vs its competitors.

    --- What is the competitive advantage of ASML?
    ASML has a competitive advantage. It makes advanced lithography equipment for etching tiny circuits onto semiconductors. It's the sole supplier of the next-generation Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) chip technology to the semiconductor industry.Mar 30, 2023

    --- Why does ASML have no competitors?
    The reason why competition and growth opportunities go hand in hand is because ASML is the owner of its own future. ASML faces competition in the industry however its technology is far more advanced than its competitors due to its EUV lithography technology. Jan 24, 2023

    --- Who are ASML top 5 customers?
    Image result
    Intel (US), Samsung Electronics (South Korea) and TSMC (Taiwan) are the world's largest semiconductor companies and are ASML's biggest customers. Intel and Samsung are integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), which design and manufacture their own chips.

    --- DRAM: Faster CPU's need faster DRAM for the large data functions.
    The 10 Largest DRAM Manufacturers in the World
    Samsung – USD 241.60 Billion.
    SK Hynix – USD 38.73 Billion. ...
    Micron Technology – USD 27.15 Billion. ...
    Kingston Technology – USD 12.8 Billion. ...
    Infineon Technologies – USD 9.6 Billion. ...
    Winbond – USD 3.5 Billion. ...
    Powerchip – USD 2.78 Billion. ...
    Nanya Technology – USD 2.42 Billion. ...

    --- Can't leave out of the list: Nvidia:
    What does Nvidia actually manufacture?
    Nvidia designs and sells GPUs for gaming, cryptocurrency mining, and professional applications, as well as chip systems for use in vehicles, robotics, and other tools.

    OTOH: semiconductor etf's list SMH etf, Van Eck has very nice long term results, as with FSELX, an early offering from Fido's select funds front running sector investing from the mid-80's,

    Quantum, 2019 discussion NOTE: The Nature Magazine link is no longer available without subscription. It was a very insightful write.

    I went to school in the early 80's learning about 1's and 0's and hexadecimal numbers and basic programming to 'boot' an early Computer Automation NAKED MINI/ALPHA 16 computer that weighted a bunch (75 lbs, with power supply), with a total memory of 32K, if both 16k boards were installed. I never got the 'feeling' for programming; not unlike art, which I enjoy, but I'm not a very good painting artist. A coworker got the 'feeling' programming and moved forward to work for Ross Perot's EDS electronics/programming division. I preferred the hands on of point A to point E of a computer driving electro-mechanical devices; and having to discover what section failed, and why.

    Lastly, for the good and bad of tech.; I still 'heart' this space in investing.

    Remain curious,
  • edited April 2023
    Delete. @catch already posted my suggestion.
  • @Sven. Yes, they're all there with SMH.
  • @catch, I invested in SMH for a while, and keep adding when the opportunities present themselves. I reduced more stocks recently and added more high quality bonds. Regional banks are reporting this week and it does not look encouraging. Large tech companies are reporting later this week.
  • edited April 2023
    I caught this yesterday from Barrons:

    "Automakers pulling back some control over their products from Apple and Google is an effort to avoid the fate of the personal computer industry. While Microsoft dominated the operating systems and other providers took over key software, PC makers like Dell Technologies, HP Inc., and Lenovo lost pricing power and relevance in the market.

    The best way for investors to benefit from the auto industry's shift to computers on wheels may be through the chipmaking arms dealers, Eric writes. Nvidia, Qualcomm, Micron Technology and others all have specialized products for automobiles and analysts cite the industry as an avenue for future growth.

    For the automakers, convincing customers to pay up for subscription services may be a tougher sell, at least initially. Tesla charges $199 a month for full self-driving mode. BMW abandoned plans to charge a monthly fee that unlocked heated seats in some of its newer models. Turns out drivers don't like to pay extra to use hardware that's already installed in their vehicles."

    As a side note, distracted driving is or should be a crime pretty much everywhere so how is it that automakers are installing bigger screens in their vehicles with more functionality than before? Are they not a distraction much like ones phone or am I just too old and out of touch to understand? (*Probably should start a new thread*)
  • @Mark " Tesla charges $199 a month for full self-driving mode." Really ?
  • @Derf - So quoted the article. Personally I have zero interest in owning one.
  • edited April 2023
    Have automatic steering / lane keeping (to a limited degree) on ‘18 Accord. Love it. Can’t imagine how great a full self-driving vehicle would be. Not good on really chopped up highways, however, because (mine at least) isn’t intelligent enough to steer around pot holes. One of those features, like cruise control, you’d miss after once having.

    Despite first impressions, auto-steer actually allows driver to look farther down the highway and more off to the sides. Expands your visual field because you’re not concentrating so much on the center line. My 2-cents anyway. Of course, like anything, it could be abused.

    Re heated seats - LOL / Rented a Chrysler 300 once somewhere down south in hot weather. Some joker had left the heated seat turned on. Couldn’t figure out how to switch it off in the on screen menu until after several hours of driving.:(
  • My only tech requirement for new cars is a heads-up display. OMG so bleepin' convenient, I rarely need to look down at the dashboard anymore. A close second is automated traffic-jam stop/go distance-control, especially around here in DC.

    That said I hate the trend of going to all touchscreens. Tactile knobs should be required for basic things like volume and airflow. Touchscreen almost requires you to take your eyes off the road to adjust.
  • edited April 2023
    ”That said I hate the trend of going to all touchscreens”.

    Yup - That was the issue with the heated seat I mentioned belatedly above. And kripes - be sure you know how the headlights operate before pulling out of an airport rental garage after dark. Really crazy keeping up with all the non-uniformity in cars today.
  • Ha! Good stuff

    @Mark. You mentioned distracted driving. So many clowns driving around higher than a kite now. A friend got rear ended by a gal who didn't stop. Kept going, he followed her and she rear ended an elderly couple at the stop light a mile down the road driving on suspended license. No insurance. Don't even get me started.

    @catch22. I always preferred the analog devices and Texas instruments compared to the asml companies. My background undergraduate degree physics/microelectronics. Made small fortune in 90's investing in cmp slurries. Consumables used in sanding down wafers during ic chip mfg process

    Same though. I like cars basic, knobs, etc although backup camera and lane change camera good stuff

    I wouldn't buy a high end car these days. Too many jackers and dingbats looking to rob folks. Blend in, don't call attention to yourself


    Baseball fan
  • edited April 2023
    @catch22 - Agree. As you know, I dwelt in the Detroit metro / Pontiac area near 30 years. There was an added degree of safety in wearing a cheap wrist watch, a pair of trousers from K-Mart and driving an inexpensive vehicle. There was a common wisdom back then that said don’t stop for red lights at night in and around Detroit.

    Well, I was wishing for some activity in markets. More movement today. Wrong direction in most cases. Metals & miners very weak in the AM. Recovering some lost ground in afternoon.
  • edited April 2023
    Been raising a little cash the past couple days. Dry powder for the next market nose-dive. Dow’s not too far from its record close of 36,800 on January 5, 2022. Not bearish, just a little cautious. Still slightly overweight equities and a bit below normal on the fixed income side. How we allocate, of course, depends greatly on age and other individual factors. No single approach fits all.

    Metals continue to look interesting in the overall scheme of things, but have pulled back a bit. The S&P and NASDAQ have greatly outdistanced the Dow YTD. The Fed may not like the heady stock market when they meet next month. First Republic at last glance had fallen over 40% today down to $3 - $4. One wonders how the eventual outcome there may impact markets next week …. And whether it’s enough to lessen the Fed’s strident approach …
  • edited April 2023
    Few viable paths are available for First Republic Bank. Unlikely they will get bailed out by government and they are likely to taken over by the government. This means stock will to zero. So far there is no buyers. The other option is to sell asset. The FED has broke something …

    CNBC just reported:
    Reuters reported Friday that U.S. officials — including from the FDIC, Treasury Department and Federal Reserve — are coordinating meetings with other banks to broker a rescue plan for First Republic.

    Shares of First Republic closed at $16 on Monday before the bank reported its first-quarter results, which showed a decline in deposits of about 40%. The stock fell more than 60% over the next two days, hitting a new all-time low.
  • Tiny nibbles today on BHB and SCHP. No use trying to catch a falling knife, but the banks are down by a lot. I put in the orders before-hours.
  • Hi guys,

    Some old news on some buys. Have opened positions in BOGSX and HTECX. Looking to get into smaller funds. Hoping to do better than just holding the big stuff....instead of holding only the Magnificent think there was a movie, no?
    Also opened some emerging funds. First time I've owned overseas funds in years: EACOX and CEMDX. Playing the dollar and moving things out of China.
    Have also bought CSMVX and GTCSX. First time have owned small caps since the Blond One was president.
    Also have bought VLIFX. Have owned this one before.
    As you can tell, I'm bullish with the Fed being close to done, me thinking. Mild slow down...... most of the bad I think is behind us. With a long term outlook, I felt it was time to buy. With all the gloom and bearishness around, I think a new day is dawning. The sun is rising. Things will look better in days to come.

    God bless
    the Pudd
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