Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
My above comments come from the First Quarter 2020 Commentary. On page 3 of this Commentary you will find that the baseline asset allocation that the fund adjust its equity allocation begins at 10% equity allocation with the S&P 500 being over 3487. In addition ... At the bottom of the page it reads ... "Please note: the fund employs a 31-day trading rule to help reduce the risk of taxable events. If the fund has increased the allocation to stock funds or bond funds, it will not decrease that allocation for 31 days."
This complete commentary can be view through CTFAX's web page linked below.
I read it the same way as @wxman123. They can make numerous increases in those 31 days or numerous decreases in 31 days, but can't do both. In fact, I see that they had numerous buys in March as the S&P 500 was falling.
I also can't figure out why they wanted to make the fund more aggressive, unless they just want to perform better in rising markets. It really hasn't done well in good times and maybe they want to change that.
My comment made on May 10th in an eariler post in this thread was "First, know that it has a 31 day trading rule and it can not change position direction once established until 31 days have expired." And, I should have added from last trade made. I'm still standing by what I wrote. Position direction would be established from either a buy (or sell) being made. I've never wrote (or stated) multiple transactions could not take place in the established direction of movement. What waxman123 injected was information that brought confusion to the understanding the fund's 31 day trading rule.
I purchased WAMCX, APGAX, and QQQ over the past 2 weeks. WAMCX is a great small cap growth fund with a focus on the tech and health care sectors. Consistently a top 1-5% performer among small caps.. APGAX is large cap growth and held up extremely well in the sell off. Very much of a steady eddy fund typically in the top 10-20% of top performers among large cap growth.
My comment made on May 10th in an eariler post in this thread was "First, know that it has a 31 day trading rule and it can not change position direction once established until 31 days have expired." And, I should have added from last trade made. I'm still standing by what I wrote. Position direction would be established from either a buy (or sell) being made. I've never wrote (or stated) multiple transactions could not take place in the established direction of movement. What waxman123 injected was information that brought confusion to the understanding the fund's 31 day trading rule.
Skeet, sorry, but what I said was almost verbatim from the fund's own literature, which reads: "Please note: The fund uses a 31-day trading rule to help reduce the risk of taxable events. If the fund has increased the allocation to stock funds or bond funds, it will not decrease that allocation for 31 days." It's your read of that statement that's confusing because you add a concept that isn't there. According to the statement itself, the fund absolutely could decrease its allocation to stocks and then increase ("change direction" in your parlance) the very next day. That seems unlikely and could trigger a wash sale tax event (depending on a number of factors), but it would not violate the statement. Perhaps the fund says something different elsewhere. Peace.
Put on a 5/7 (Jan 22) combo spread on GE for a small credit, 20 spreads controlling 2K shares. Just taking it as a speculative position on a corporate turnaround/recovery .... if GE goes below $5 it may run the risk of getting delisted and/or removed from funds, so I kind of wonder if the 'bottom' is in on the stock. It won't take much to make the position nicely profitable, and the downside risk is quite low/comfortable for me.
Hi guys, Bought a little FSDAX with the money from sales last week, but that's all. I still don't see value. ...at least, not in my portfolio. So will keep the rest of the cash in my pocket and wait. God bless the Pudd
Good morning, have place orders for buys: VDE, VONG, UNH, ITOT, SPY. New monies from 5/15 dividends and got paid last Fri.
Will sell 50% of BRK.B [Stocks perform same as Buffet's recent energy levels - maybe more idle past few years].
We are hopeful for summer recovery since covid-viral mortality/morbidity data has been limited [?bulls market favorable] the past few days [maybe curve flattening indeed is happening]. Maybe we will have slow/moderate economic recovery soon. We will see for sure in few weeks/months.
Bought for FBND, PCI PDI for Mama's retired portfolio.
Hi guys, Yesterday sold YAFFX and FEMKX. Wanted to buy FSDAX today, but NO........the only thing in the portfolio to go up 1.48%. Darn! Have bought it twice.....up 4.9% and 7.4%.....so I guess it's ok. But still down 13% on it. Just trying to manage losses to get back to 0. Sold FEMKX due to China fight coming and YAFFX tired of value. God bless the Pudd
With equities having the strong run that they have had of late, and the fact that I was a buyer of equities during the stock market swoon, this has left me light on the income side of my portfolio and heavy on the equity side. Since, cash is paying very little I elected to use the proceeds from a maturing CD and add to the following funds. They were BLADX, FLAAX & PFANX. Combined they are kicking off a yield in the 4% range whereas if I had rolled the CD into another CD I was looking at a yield of less than 1%. I'm also thinking there well be some price appreciation coming to these funds as investors seek out yield and move away from holding large positions in cash.
For now, I have decided to let my equities run. When I trim equities I will most likely raise my cash position with the equity sell proceeds. Then I'll await the next stock market pullback and repeat the (buy, hold, & sell) spiff process.
This is a great thread and I hope someone will come forward to keep it going should Pud still be with his posture that this will be his last month to host the thread. He has done this for the past couple of years and pretty much feels, as I felt, it is time to move aside for another to step forward. Best wishes to you Pud ... and, thanks again for hosting the thread. I'm sure it's appreciated by many.
This is a great thread and I hope someone will come forward to keep it going should Pud still be with his posture that this will be his last month to host the thread. He has done this for the past couple of years and pretty much feels, as I felt, it is time to move aside for another to step forward. Best wishes to you Pud ... and, thanks again for hosting the thread. I'm sure it's appreciated by many.
Thanks Pud. I used to run a similar thread over at M* but work got in the way and I began to get late throwing up new threads for each month. When I created the short-lived M* forums alternative site last year after leaving the s--tty new forums at M*, I just established a 'Consolidated Buy/Sell/Why' thread that didn't need a new one to be created each month.....we would just add to it continuously. Maybe do that here?
Good thread, yes. Keeps me interested, though I don't even try to be as nimble as the rest of you. I don't marry my funds, but I keep and admire my picks--- until the thing(s) worth admiring go away. THEN I have to look for something new. But my emphasis from 2019 and going forward is to consolidate and concentrate and simplify.
Lyn Alden Schwartzer's May 19 article, "First Liquidity, Then Solvency," is a brief, detailed and chart-laden description of today's economy and market.
"Does it get better from here, or is this a big fake-out for another round of selling as we move deeper into this year? ...
"The next several years are likely to be challenging for many companies with weak balance sheets, so make sure you know what you own.
"...the top 5 mega-cap stocks have held up the major American stock market indices like Atlas holding up the world, and reached levels of concentration not seen in nearly four decades."
"...policymakers around the world can't afford to let a massive deflationary economic collapse occur, and for millions and millions of people to be unable to afford the necessities of life and for half of large companies to go out of business, so they will be forced to keep the stimulus taps open, funded with printed money, with a willingness to devalue currency to avoid the worst case economic scenario."
I also wish to thank @Puddnhead for all the informative and entertaining B/ S threads over the years. I suspect that’s a favorite read for many who don’t actively participate.
Hi guys, Was reading The Economist magazine. It has some scary things regarding bankruptcies, and a wave is coming. Already it's as bad as 2009, and it's only starting. Bonds.....2/3 of the non financials are BBB or junk. Already huge numbers will go to junk. Of the 32 worldwide junk bond defaults in April, 21 were in the U.S. Oil and gas (shale) are going to be smashed. Other sectors include retail, restaurants, mining, transport, cars, utilities. Also there will be lots of zombie companies that will survive for years. Europe is in the same shoes. I'm glad I don't own small cap funds now. Still, I worry about the mid caps I own. This will get bad, I think. God bless the Pudd
Too much bad news still out there. I'm slowly selling things as market rises to build cash. I think we're going to have a lot more businesses going south this summer. We're starting to see small businesses locally (WA state) announce going out of business sales. I think that will continue. And big companies like JC Penney and Hertz announced this week too. I think that trend will continue as so many businesses are leveraged to the hilt (as the MBA degree folks think that is the best way to do things).
So right now I'm taking profits and building cash. I've made a bunch of money in this rebound with QQQ although I sold my last of that this week. I'm about 50% stocks now where I'm usually more like 75. Still about 10% down for the year; that happens but I don't want to take a big drop.
Been thinking (pondering) of adding a modest holding in a commodity strategy fund (PCLAX) to my hybrid income sleeve since commodities have been beaten up in the recent stock market swoon. My outlook is that PCLAX can turn a 25% to 35% gain over the next 12 months as it has had better than a 20% gain over the past 30 days. It's TTM dividend yield over the past twelve months = 3.3%; and, its current price is $3.64. I'm thinking that it can make it back to its 52 week high which is in the $5.00 range over the next year, or so.
I have owned this fund in the past and received some good payouts. Naturally, it is nice to buy it why it is on the floor. This spiff would be a position cost average one and not a bulk buy all in type purchase.
I'd welcome the comments of others about this thought.
If you have some thoughts on a good spiff position (to play) I'd be interest in hearing about it.
Been thinking (pondering) of adding a modest holding in a commodity strategy fund (PCLAX) to my hybrid income sleeve since commodities have been beaten up in the recent stock market swoon. My outlook is that PCLAX can turn a 25% to 35% gain over the next 12 months as it has had better than a 20% gain over the past 30 days. It's TTM dividend yield over the past twelve months = 3.3%; and, its current price is $3.64. I'm thinking that it can make it back to its 52 week high which is in the $5.00 range over the next year, or so.
I have owned this fund in the past and received some good payouts. Naturally, it is nice to buy it why it is on the floor. This spiff would be a position cost average one and not a bulk buy all in type purchase.
I'd welcome the comments of others about this thought.
If you have some thoughts on a good spiff position (to play) I'd be interest in hearing about it.
Old_Skeet
I've been eying its sister fund PCRIX (PIMCO CommodityRealReturn Strategy Fund) because it's got noticeably less exposure to energy. Granted it's got more exposure to duration risk on the bond side (1 mon vs 1 year) compared to PCLAX but for someone with enough energy exposure already, that might not be a bad trade-off.
Temping isn't it? I looked at Commodity funds extensively a while back after Barrons profiled Rene Hauergerud who runs SPCAX and SPCIX
Most Commodity funds are so heavily weighted to energy and oil I decided I would be would be better off in VDE or oil companies. Hauergerud avoided the oil crash this year is widely diversified and has a much lower risk profile than the Pimco funds.
Having said that I haven't made much money here for a while, although I haven't lost much either. It is hard to know why that will change until the economy reverses course. Maybe some mangers can hit platinum silver and gold just right, but I doubt the retail investor can find them
MFO lists these funds as Global Macro so they wont show up in a screen for commodity fund
I've been trolling through some commodity strategy funds and find Blackrock's commodity strategy fund of interest. It uses both equities and futures to gain its exposure to commodities.
Investment Approach Invests in two strategies, approximately equally. One strategy focuses on commodity-linked derivatives, the other focuses on equity investments in commodity-related companies, including mining, energy and agricultural companies.
Exposure Breakdowns Sectors as of 30 April-2020
Name / Equity Exposure / Commodity Index Related Instruments*/ Total / Benchmark Energy / 9.84% / 10.68% / 20.52% / 21.07% Agriculture /20.92% / 19.23% / 40.15% / 37.94% Industrial Metals / 13.36% / 9.39% / 22.75% / 18.53% Precious Metals / 5.19% / 11.39% / 16.58% / 22.46% TOTAL / 49.31% / 50.69% / 100.00% / 100.00%
BCSAX is the commodity straegy fund that I am currently leaning towards purchasing. The above link takes you to the A share fund details; however, the fund is available, for purchase, in other fund share classes as well. It would have been nice to buy this fund at its 52 week low ($5.08) as it is now at $6.22.
It is not clear to me why commodities will do well in a recession unless you fall back on "people have to eat". Oil will get a big bounce soon with only a bit uptick in demand after a lot of supply cut off, but to sustain higher prices I think we would have to see the return of normal demand.
Agricultural prices have bounced significantly but mostly due to supply disruptions. However even when the US gets it's milk, pork and grains etc supply chains sorted out, with lower restaurants etc won't demand be lower?
Obviously also an inflation hedge and a "hard asset" that will not be a covid sensitive as real estate for example.
BCSAX and SPCAX have had similar performances but BCSAX has a decent dividend.
SPACX is mostly agg products now ( 3/31) with 13% gold and 8% nat gas. But she may have missed best preforming commodity this year OJ and milk.
Web page little sparse mostly marketing "hedge funds for the rest of us"
Today, I bought my first of four planned buy steps in BCSAX. This purchase will become the fourth member of my misc & other sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio which now contains thirteen funds.
One of the reasons I chose this fund is that it pays a dividend in the 2% range which is more than what I'd earn in mmk. The other, is for a commodity strategy fund, it has been one of the better performers.
PRWCX continues to be around 80% of our investment accounts, no need to get overly complicated.
The rest of our account holdings are international & small cap funds which I began to lighten up on earlier in the year in favor of AKREX which is now 10% of our holdings. During February and March we were adding new money to both PRWCX and AKREX. Recently we've been sitting tight while the small caps have been rebounding.
There has been much prior discussion about how CTFAX goes about making changes to it's asset allocation moving between stocks and bonds based upon the movement of the S&P 500 Index.
It's new asset allocation was made on May 28th where it changed direction from it's last sell on April 28th. This is due to it's 31 Day Trading Rule. It's new stock alloction is 50% equity 50% bonds.
For those interested, you can read more about this through the below link. Once opened find Asset Allocation Update and click on it. A pdf will load that contains this information.
Hi guys, Hope all is well with you and yours. On today's walk, the Dukester was kinda chatty. He said, "Pudd, do you know how many funds you sold since the end of last year?" I said, "no." He said, "A baker's dozen." I said, "This time I am gonna do something different." Trying to limit losses by selling instead of just riding it out. And, of course, buying at lower levels with the cash and dry powder we had. Trying to manage the losses so as not to lose as much.....to get back to 0 quicker. So, of course, the next question was, "Did it work?" I said, "I don't know......I'll never know. We're down 3.3% right now as of today. I can only say I hope it helped a little." The buys were the big help. Also did some buying yesterday.....held my nose while doing it. Bought FMIJX. It's my worst fund.....now down 11%. Also bought GLFOX. Playing Euro stimulus plans. I think our market is overbought. Saying that, I will say this again just for laughs and giggles: months back, I wrote down June 19 on a paper. Someone said (from the VIX) high 90 days or so.....you will get a correction. So something to watch for. God bless the Pudd
Comments
My above comments come from the First Quarter 2020 Commentary. On page 3 of this Commentary you will find that the baseline asset allocation that the fund adjust its equity allocation begins at 10% equity allocation with the S&P 500 being over 3487. In addition ... At the bottom of the page it reads ... "Please note: the fund employs a 31-day trading rule to help reduce the risk of taxable events. If the fund has increased the allocation to stock funds or bond funds, it will not decrease that allocation for 31 days."
This complete commentary can be view through CTFAX's web page linked below.
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1
Scroll down until you find the Fund's Commentary button located under fund literature.
I also can't figure out why they wanted to make the fund more aggressive, unless they just want to perform better in rising markets. It really hasn't done well in good times and maybe they want to change that.
My comment made on May 10th in an eariler post in this thread was "First, know that it has a 31 day trading rule and it can not change position direction once established until 31 days have expired." And, I should have added from last trade made. I'm still standing by what I wrote. Position direction would be established from either a buy (or sell) being made. I've never wrote (or stated) multiple transactions could not take place in the established direction of movement. What waxman123 injected was information that brought confusion to the understanding the fund's 31 day trading rule.
funds or bond funds, it will not decrease that allocation for 31 days." It's your read of that statement that's confusing because you add a concept that isn't there. According to the statement itself, the fund absolutely could decrease its allocation to stocks and then increase ("change direction" in your parlance) the very next day. That seems unlikely and could trigger a wash sale tax event (depending on a number of factors), but it would not violate the statement. Perhaps the fund says something different elsewhere. Peace.
Bought a little FSDAX with the money from sales last week, but that's all. I still don't see value. ...at least, not in my portfolio. So will keep the rest of the cash in my pocket and wait.
God bless
the Pudd
Will sell 50% of BRK.B [Stocks perform same as Buffet's recent energy levels - maybe more idle past few years].
We are hopeful for summer recovery since covid-viral mortality/morbidity data has been limited [?bulls market favorable] the past few days [maybe curve flattening indeed is happening]. Maybe we will have slow/moderate economic recovery soon. We will see for sure in few weeks/months.
Bought for FBND, PCI PDI for Mama's retired portfolio.
Regards
Yesterday sold YAFFX and FEMKX. Wanted to buy FSDAX today, but NO........the only thing in the portfolio to go up 1.48%. Darn! Have bought it twice.....up 4.9% and 7.4%.....so I guess it's ok. But still down 13% on it. Just trying to manage losses to get back to 0. Sold FEMKX due to China fight coming and YAFFX tired of value.
God bless
the Pudd
Sold AQB from my Roth. Just cutting a spec position that's just been treading water for too long (it's aquaculture, so pardon the pun).
For now, I have decided to let my equities run. When I trim equities I will most likely raise my cash position with the equity sell proceeds. Then I'll await the next stock market pullback and repeat the (buy, hold, & sell) spiff process.
This is a great thread and I hope someone will come forward to keep it going should Pud still be with his posture that this will be his last month to host the thread. He has done this for the past couple of years and pretty much feels, as I felt, it is time to move aside for another to step forward. Best wishes to you Pud ... and, thanks again for hosting the thread. I'm sure it's appreciated by many.
Old_Skeet
"Does it get better from here, or is this a big fake-out for another round of selling as we move deeper into this year? ...
"The next several years are likely to be challenging for many companies with weak balance sheets, so make sure you know what you own.
"...the top 5 mega-cap stocks have held up the major American stock market indices like Atlas holding up the world, and reached levels of concentration not seen in nearly four decades."
"...policymakers around the world can't afford to let a massive deflationary economic collapse occur, and for millions and millions of people to be unable to afford the necessities of life and for half of large companies to go out of business, so they will be forced to keep the stimulus taps open, funded with printed money, with a willingness to devalue currency to avoid the worst case economic scenario."
@Mark - Your Lyn Alden Schwartzer article would also fit under the “What The Hell is The Stock Market Doing?” thread: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/56135/what-the-hell-is-the-stock-market-doing-cullen-roche
Was reading The Economist magazine. It has some scary things regarding bankruptcies, and a wave is coming. Already it's as bad as 2009, and it's only starting. Bonds.....2/3 of the non financials are BBB or junk. Already huge numbers will go to junk. Of the 32 worldwide junk bond defaults in April, 21 were in the U.S. Oil and gas (shale) are going to be smashed. Other sectors include retail, restaurants, mining, transport, cars, utilities. Also there will be lots of zombie companies that will survive for years. Europe is in the same shoes. I'm glad I don't own small cap funds now. Still, I worry about the mid caps I own. This will get bad, I think.
God bless
the Pudd
So right now I'm taking profits and building cash. I've made a bunch of money in this rebound with QQQ although I sold my last of that this week. I'm about 50% stocks now where I'm usually more like 75. Still about 10% down for the year; that happens but I don't want to take a big drop.
I have owned this fund in the past and received some good payouts. Naturally, it is nice to buy it why it is on the floor. This spiff would be a position cost average one and not a bulk buy all in type purchase.
I'd welcome the comments of others about this thought.
If you have some thoughts on a good spiff position (to play) I'd be interest in hearing about it.
Old_Skeet
I've been eying its sister fund PCRIX (PIMCO CommodityRealReturn Strategy Fund) because it's got noticeably less exposure to energy. Granted it's got more exposure to duration risk on the bond side (1 mon vs 1 year) compared to PCLAX but for someone with enough energy exposure already, that might not be a bad trade-off.
Temping isn't it? I looked at Commodity funds extensively a while back after Barrons profiled Rene Hauergerud who runs SPCAX and SPCIX
Most Commodity funds are so heavily weighted to energy and oil I decided I would be would be better off in VDE or oil companies. Hauergerud avoided the oil crash this year is widely diversified and has a much lower risk profile than the Pimco funds.
Having said that I haven't made much money here for a while, although I haven't lost much either. It is hard to know why that will change until the economy reverses course. Maybe some mangers can hit platinum silver and gold just right, but I doubt the retail investor can find them
MFO lists these funds as Global Macro so they wont show up in a screen for commodity fund
I've been trolling through some commodity strategy funds and find Blackrock's commodity strategy fund of interest. It uses both equities and futures to gain its exposure to commodities.
Investment Approach
Invests in two strategies, approximately equally. One strategy focuses on commodity-linked derivatives, the other focuses on equity investments in commodity-related companies, including mining, energy and agricultural companies.
Exposure Breakdowns
Sectors as of 30 April-2020
Name / Equity Exposure / Commodity Index Related Instruments*/ Total / Benchmark
Energy / 9.84% / 10.68% / 20.52% / 21.07%
Agriculture /20.92% / 19.23% / 40.15% / 37.94%
Industrial Metals / 13.36% / 9.39% / 22.75% / 18.53%
Precious Metals / 5.19% / 11.39% / 16.58% / 22.46%
TOTAL / 49.31% / 50.69% / 100.00% / 100.00%
Below is the funds link
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/227413/blackrock-commodity-strategies-class-a-fund
BCSAX is the commodity straegy fund that I am currently leaning towards purchasing. The above link takes you to the A share fund details; however, the fund is available, for purchase, in other fund share classes as well. It would have been nice to buy this fund at its 52 week low ($5.08) as it is now at $6.22.
Thanks for the suggestion. Active funds make much more sense than commodity indexes, as most of the latter are just oil funds.
you will love this
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/B3-GU051_Dshot_NS_20200528050335.pnp
Chart about commodity "super cycle" page 12 but most of the rest of paper about precious metals.
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2020-Compact-Version-english.pdf
It is not clear to me why commodities will do well in a recession unless you fall back on "people have to eat". Oil will get a big bounce soon with only a bit uptick in demand after a lot of supply cut off, but to sustain higher prices I think we would have to see the return of normal demand.
Agricultural prices have bounced significantly but mostly due to supply disruptions. However even when the US gets it's milk, pork and grains etc supply chains sorted out, with lower restaurants etc won't demand be lower?
Obviously also an inflation hedge and a "hard asset" that will not be a covid sensitive as real estate for example.
BCSAX and SPCAX have had similar performances but BCSAX has a decent dividend.
SPACX is mostly agg products now ( 3/31) with 13% gold and 8% nat gas. But she may have missed best preforming commodity this year OJ and milk.
Web page little sparse mostly marketing "hedge funds for the rest of us"
Today, I bought my first of four planned buy steps in BCSAX. This purchase will become the fourth member of my misc & other sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio which now contains thirteen funds.
One of the reasons I chose this fund is that it pays a dividend in the 2% range which is more than what I'd earn in mmk. The other, is for a commodity strategy fund, it has been one of the better performers.
The rest of our account holdings are international & small cap funds which I began to lighten up on earlier in the year in favor of AKREX which is now 10% of our holdings. During February and March we were adding new money to both PRWCX and AKREX. Recently we've been sitting tight while the small caps have been rebounding.
It's new asset allocation was made on May 28th where it changed direction from it's last sell on April 28th. This is due to it's 31 Day Trading Rule. It's new stock alloction is 50% equity 50% bonds.
For those interested, you can read more about this through the below link. Once opened find Asset Allocation Update and click on it. A pdf will load that contains this information.
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1
Hope all is well with you and yours.
On today's walk, the Dukester was kinda chatty. He said, "Pudd, do you know how many funds you sold since the end of last year?" I said, "no." He said, "A baker's dozen." I said, "This time I am gonna do something different." Trying to limit losses by selling instead of just riding it out. And, of course, buying at lower levels with the cash and dry powder we had. Trying to manage the losses so as not to lose as much.....to get back to 0 quicker. So, of course, the next question was, "Did it work?" I said, "I don't know......I'll never know. We're down 3.3% right now as of today. I can only say I hope it helped a little." The buys were the big help. Also did some buying yesterday.....held my nose while doing it. Bought FMIJX. It's my worst fund.....now down 11%. Also bought GLFOX. Playing Euro stimulus plans. I think our market is overbought. Saying that, I will say this again just for laughs and giggles: months back, I wrote down June 19 on a paper. Someone said (from the VIX) high 90 days or so.....you will get a correction. So something to watch for.
God bless
the Pudd