Hi guys,
Hope all is well with you all. I was just listening to WealthTrack.....Jason Trennert. I really like him. I guess because I agree with a lot of what he says.
We're still in lockdown in PA. The Dukester and I are getting rammy. All the rain makes it worse. Have done nothing this week as buy or sell. Right now, I'm down 7.4% for the year. Am looking for market to go down, then will buy again.
Also, on another note, has anybody read the book, "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe? Or do you have any comments on it? I was thinking about getting it to read.
Have made a few lists on the portfolio. If the market goes down, buys are: CTFAX, CIPMX, FIFNX, FSCSX, FSPHX, FXIAX, PGTAX, and UMBMX. So those are funds I will be watching. Now for the Santa doesn't come here anymore list. This is really my sell list, and they will be sold at some point and never bought again. FMIJX - best thing about this fund is their reports. YAFFX - value right; fell like a rock....no value there. I was worried when Daddy left. PRDGX - not really against this fund other than it is an index hugger.
So, saying all that, this will be my last posting of Buy - Sell - Ponder. I do hope someone picks it up. There's value in a space of watching what people do. It needs someone more chatty.....and a tech guy to post charts and stuff. Hopefully someone will give that upside.
God bless
the Pudd
Comments
I guess that leaves me out !
Pudd thank you & Duke.
Have a good weekend, Derf
Sold a few odds and ends I picked up in March after locking in some short-term cap gains that more than cover upwards of 1-2+ years of dividends.
I originally planned those purchases to be long-term holds but I'm having second thoughts about that @ the moment and moving to control exposures/risk.
I should say that FSN convinced me to overweight oil & minerals, which I did to a small extent and it proved to be disastrous! It was my own DD - in 2009,10 I thought gas would go right back to $4.00 a gallon. C’est la vie
Thank you for the link. The book seems a little too dark for me. I think I'll pass, but thanks for your time.
Also added to FSDAX this week. It's my worst fund. Will add more on weakness. Also sold some funds on Friday due to the market run up. Will deploy the money at lower levels. Sold FNSTX, BTMFX, YCGEX.....had pocket change losses. I just think the market is ahead of itself.
God bless
the Pudd
Just curious, why would you sell out of it now? It has held up fairly well, and remember it is not a typical "LCG" fund.
You can find its new equity weighting scale under the Asset Allocation section in the below link ... Fact Sheet button.
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1
Thanks for your link to COTZX & CTFAX. I have been curious about his fund since it was noted here at MFO recently. M* lists it as a 15-30% equity allocation fund, while Columbia lists it’s Mar 31st allocation as 70% equity / 30% FI. M* shows its’ equity investment now as 62%. Here is their strategy for how they change allocations:
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/content/columbia/pdf/LIT_DOC_3C97987F.PDF
Very confusing and unfortunately I’m losing interest.
Best to all - Brian
https://ishort.ink/BTTq
that said, the posts by old skeet and level5 have given me a certain amount of pause regarding CTFAX.
I agree with you. No faith in the market. Also, AKREX was crossed off a watch list due to finance sector weighting. It's also why YCGEX was sold. Too many maybe(s) in this area. Also, CTFAX is at 52-week highs. So I would be not a buyer of it. Also, any thoughts on CANNX, KAIBX or FARMX?
God bless
the Pudd
as re CTFAX (and RLSFX, for that matter) -- yup, 52 week highs. which makes me a FOMO investor of the most worstest kind. going to keep a short tether on both, however. or at least i hope to.
But buyers and sellers are what make a market. I add to this fund in March after selling DSENX. Fits my risk tolerance much better.
Derf
I will only compare it (i.e., AKREX) to what I bought off the watch list because that's what the watch list is for. I bought CTFAX and FSCSX. At this space and time, I do not think this area is a buy. Again....just my opinion.
God bless
the Pudd
Been adding more energy vde vang2045, and start new positions in biogen/vong few days ago.
Holding on for the rough volatile rides ahead
Here is the link to the fund. https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1
First, know that it has a 31 day trading rule and it can not change position direction once established until 31 days have expired.
Second, to see how the fund is positioned follow the link and open The Asset Allocation Update which will be a pfd. On this pfd you will find the last six asset allocation changes the fund made with the last one taking place on 4/28/2020 where it moved to a 35% stock / 65% bond allocation.
Third, once annually (May 1st) the fund managers set the trading ranges for the fund going forward for the coming year. With this, on May 1st of 2020 the fund made an asset allocation change from a baseline 10% equity allocation to a 50% baseline equity allocation before adjusting for the movement of the 500 Index. Since, the 31 day traiding rule is in effect the fund will not make the actual declared adjustment until the 31 days has expired from the date of the last asset allocation change. This will be done somewhere around May 29th.
For me it was a risk off ... risk on ... fund holding. Now with the baseline asset allocation change from a 10% baseline equity allocation to a 50% equity allocation it is no longer, from my perspective, a risk off ... risk on ... fund. With this, I have it under review, myself, to determine just how much of it I will continue to hold going forward.
I hope my above comment bring some clairty for a better understanding of how the fund positions.
Skeet
Thanks for your update on the fund. Your third point I was not aware of, which to me is important. As it moves from a more conservative fund to a moderate or balanced one, it could be more aggressive depending on which bond and stock funds it holds. As you know, they are subject to monthly tweaking. So, on the next market drop, one could be staring eyes wide open at a very different fund.......no.......a fund with many moving parts.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s. Skeeter, please correct me if I am mistaken.
My best to all. - Brian
My take is that fund has been now positioned in a more aggressive posture. I'm thinking that this is because of recent FOMC's interest rate and easing policy. Plus, the Fed's have and will probally continue to inject money into the financial system. This no doubt will lift most all asset prices especially equities. Therefore, to caputure this anticipated uptrend the fund managers have elected to make the fund more aggressive in the coming year. Is this good? Or, Bad? It depends. I held the fund in my hybrid income sleeve because of its normal conserative risk off positioning that could load equities during a stock market pullback, For me it was a risk off ... risk on ... fund. With it's new allocation moving from a low of 10% equity to a new low allocation of 50% equity it is ... for me ... no longer a risk off ... risk on fund.
At the end of the quarter I'll be reassigning CTFAX to another investment sleeve within my portfolio. Most likely to the domestic hybrid sleeve found in the growth & income section of my portfolio.
The 31 day trading rule is to prevent the fund from having wash sales. The fund's 31 day trading rule also prevents it from changing investment direction for 31 days from its last buy or sell transaction.
Maybe it's my reading skills...but as I read it the 31 day rule would not prevent the fund from increasing or decreasing stock allocation more frequently than 31 days. The rule only prevents an increase followed by a quick decrease, which would trigger a wash sale. An increase or decrease on two consecutive days would not have that effect. As the prospectus says: "The second exception is a “31-day Rule;” in order to reduce taxable events and minimize short-term trading if the S&P 500®Index price moves back and forth across a band in the allocation table, after the Fund has increased its percentage allocation to either stock funds or bond funds, it will not decrease that allocation for at least 31 days."
Also, according to the prospectus, the baseline increase is the current implementation of the strategy that has always been in place. Granted, the notion that the market has been "expensive" for the past 18 years (hence the former 10% stock baseline) and is now "normal" (50%) seems a bit disingenuous, but that's what the fund says. It also says that it can revisit this allocation more frequently then annually under unusual circumstances.