Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I hope there is a correction. A big one. Seasonally, September is often a weak month for equities.
I jumped in a 'tad' on the down 800-point day last Friday -- because I figured there would be follow-through down days, and did not want to go "all in" in a single day. But, despite all the financial bloggers who suffer from Trump Derangement syndrome, the buyers came right back in to bid up stocks. --- Including UP 250 points today, the day after the article provided by the OP). Sigh! --Too much optimism can be very depressing!
Frankly, I like select divd stocks (not quite at these prices, but if/when we see some pricing weakness) with a sub-2% 3-year Treasury. In fact, I like them more, as other investors become more pessimistic.... But I really need to see some follow-through ACTION on the pessimism. "Talking gloomy" is one thing; panic-selling is what we need. But, maybe we will finally get there in September. Hey, I'm a "glass is half full" kinda guy.
In a sustained depressed interest-rate environment, quality enterprises may have an opportunity to refinance even more debt at even lower debt-servicing costs. A more slack employment market would ameliorate wage pressures, and companies might "clean house" on some unnecessary costs that have crept into corporate P/Ls over the past 11 years. I see it every day at my "day job". And my employer is just like a lot of other big companies -- fat, happy, distracted with "stakeholders" & "sustainability" & millenial-friendly "happy talk" media nonsense.
But a crash is coming. It's been coming for 11 years. We've had crashes before. We will have many more. It's just part of the business cycle.
I kind of agree with Edmund on this one. A good pullback sooner better than later works for me. It has to come sooner or later anyway. Better now than December 2020.
Well, my wife and I experienced 2007/08 just after we had retired. Being a firm and long-time believer in the Murphy principle I wasn't terribly surprised. But we held on and came out the other side in decent shape.
@Old_Joe: You said, "But we held on and came out the other side in decent shape." My question to you & others that were around in 2007-08. Did you make any buys with ( dry powder ) as the market bled DOWN ? I believe I made 2 or three small purchases & then held on for dear life !! Today I wished I had spent , invested, a few more bucks. With that said ,how many here at MFO were using some of their dry powder as of late Dec. 2018 ? I confess I missed that one also.
I bought in Dec '18 yeah. Should have bought more, in hindsight. I'm buying into most major down days this year to put more cash into the markets across my accounts.
@Old_Joe: You said, "But we held on and came out the other side in decent shape." My question to you & others that were around in 2007-08. Did you make any buys with ( dry powder ) as the market bled DOWN ? I believe I made 2 or three small purchases & then held on for dear life !! Today I wished I had spent , invested, a few more bucks. With that said ,how many here at MFO were using some of their dry powder as of late Dec. 2018 ? I confess I missed that one also.
I worked down the cash position and let everything to recover by April. Let cash build up again in July as trade war ramped up again. This time is different as the global economy has worsen.
@Derf- No purchases as far as I can recall. Just held on and hoped for the best. I'm really a financial coward at heart. But we had just retired, didn't yet have a good feel for how our income stream would shape up, and were afraid to risk more because who knew how that mess was going to turn out?
Remember also the role that Ben Bernanke and the Fed played in the recovery. We tend to think of that as "normal" action now, but it was historically unique, and there were powerful conservative forces militantly opposed to his efforts. No one had a clue how that whole thing was going to play out- it looked like '29 all over again.
@Old_Joe: I delayed my retirement until 2012 because of the crash. In 2008, we had our house for sale and the day it was to be appraised for the prospective buyer, Bernanke said something to the effect that “we may not have an economy left.” Fortunately, the appraiser did not low-ball the property and the buyer’s loan was approved. It was more than stressful.
It's not politics but trump will Loose this time for sure -13 points in most polls vs old joe/vp sanders (Dream team) .. 99%chance that Biden will win elections 2020
It's not politics but trump will Loose this time for sure -13 points in most polls vs old joe/vp sanders (Dream team) .. 99%chance that Biden will win elections 2020
No need for recession
The accuracy of political polls ( Brexit and Trump) is akin to the accuracy of all the pundits who are forever predicting crashes.
John, perhaps you do not recall, or were in a cave during the 2016 election cycle? Hillary carried a substantial lead throughout accordingly to "the polls". EVERY poll. Trump was expected to give his concession speech early on -- after he quickly "lost" Pennsylvania, Florida, and the Dems "Blue Wall". I mean, that is what the polls said would happen...
President Trump may win OR lose 2020. And I am sticking with that prediction. As a political candidate, the President has some undeniable handicaps: He has a massive ego, even compared to other Presidents. (And that is saying something.). He does a spectacularly poor job of broadening his base. In fact, he appears to have no interest in doing so. Most bizarre! And his oratorical style is blunt, brusque, and undiplomatic. If Obama was "eloquent", President Trump is "plain-spoken" and "unfiltered". Of course, that really is an issue of style. Lots of people on the Left are obsessed with style, thinking it more important than substance. While I concede I sometimes find the President's verbal style grating, I am much more focused on the substance of the man.
Candidate Trump has one big advantage though: His opponents. Bernie Sanders honeymooned in Moscow during the height of the Cold War. Talk about "Russian Collusion"! --- And not the kind manufactured by the opposition party... As for Joe Biden, imagine Joe Biden and the President on a debate stage two or 3 times. Think about that image for a while. Then, its pretty easy to see Joe spending the next 4 years anywhere but D.C....
It's not politics but trump will Loose this time for sure -13 points in most polls vs old joe/vp sanders (Dream team) .. 99%chance that Biden will win elections 2020
No need for recession
The accuracy of political polls ( Brexit and Trump) is akin to the accuracy of all the pundits who are forever predicting crashes.
do you think warren-buttigieg can win? that does not sound so promising to me. young midwest mayor ...
it cannot be two women. did you read jcapehart's wapo family reunion piece (in SC, I think, maybe NC? I think everyone is AA, like him; many said no to black candidate, country not ready, and elders --- women --- said no woman, either, 'we tried that and look what happened' ... hence biden's reassuringness).
@Old_Joe: You said, "But we held on and came out the other side in decent shape." My question to you & others that were around in 2007-08. Did you make any buys with ( dry powder ) as the market bled DOWN ? I believe I made 2 or three small purchases & then held on for dear life !! Today I wished I had spent , invested, a few more bucks. With that said ,how many here at MFO were using some of their dry powder as of late Dec. 2018 ? I confess I missed that one also.
Derf
In Oct 2008 I bought a house. Sold it 10 years later for a good profit.
@davidrmoran I think it will be Biden or Bernie with one of the three as vp. Or it will be Warren with someone else as vp. I don’t think it will be Biden-Bernie as a ticket.
I agree with @Lewis Braham about the B-B ticket. I’m class of ‘42 and I don’t want to vote for one or two of us. Remember Groucho’s not wanting to belong to a club that would have him.
FWIW saying, I'm receiving noticeably more investment-signal service solicitations these days, including from services I briefly dabbled with over 10 years ago and haven't heard from in AGES. The contrarian in me takes that as a warning sign for equities.
Please not Bernie. He's nothing but a pretend democrat at best and too far in the weeds on many of his platform positions which I believe will have too many voters changing the channel. While I would love to see Harris I'd settle for Warren.
FWIW saying, I'm receiving noticeably more investment-signal service solicitations these days, including from services I briefly dabbled with over 10 years ago and haven't heard from in AGES. The contrarian in me takes that as a warning sign for equities.
You have junk bonds at all time highs and now see where one of my favorite sentiment indicators the BofA bull/bear indicator gave a buy. The last time it went to a buy was January 3 of this year.
Mona, you are free to post what you want. But the link is an opinion piece by a pundit, apparently with hurt feelings talking to himself. Opinions are like "cornholes" -- everybody has one.
President Trump may have grown a short-fuse. You or I probably would have too, if either of us had been slandered for 30 months about "Russian Collusion" lies hatched by the Clinton campaign using a 'retired' British spy. The news media owes POTUS equal time: 30 months of them apologizing to him in sackcloth and ashes.
Comments
or something
good thing it's short
How many of this type of write might one expect to find on any given day????
10, 20, 50, 100........???????????????????
I jumped in a 'tad' on the down 800-point day last Friday -- because I figured there would be follow-through down days, and did not want to go "all in" in a single day. But, despite all the financial bloggers who suffer from Trump Derangement syndrome, the buyers came right back in to bid up stocks. --- Including UP 250 points today, the day after the article provided by the OP). Sigh! --Too much optimism can be very depressing!
Frankly, I like select divd stocks (not quite at these prices, but if/when we see some pricing weakness) with a sub-2% 3-year Treasury. In fact, I like them more, as other investors become more pessimistic.... But I really need to see some follow-through ACTION on the pessimism. "Talking gloomy" is one thing; panic-selling is what we need. But, maybe we will finally get there in September. Hey, I'm a "glass is half full" kinda guy.
In a sustained depressed interest-rate environment, quality enterprises may have an opportunity to refinance even more debt at even lower debt-servicing costs. A more slack employment market would ameliorate wage pressures, and companies might "clean house" on some unnecessary costs that have crept into corporate P/Ls over the past 11 years. I see it every day at my "day job". And my employer is just like a lot of other big companies -- fat, happy, distracted with "stakeholders" & "sustainability" & millenial-friendly "happy talk" media nonsense.
But a crash is coming. It's been coming for 11 years. We've had crashes before. We will have many more. It's just part of the business cycle.
My question to you & others that were around in 2007-08. Did you make any buys with ( dry powder ) as the market bled DOWN ?
I believe I made 2 or three small purchases & then held on for dear life !! Today I wished
I had spent , invested, a few more bucks.
With that said ,how many here at MFO were using some of their dry powder as of late Dec. 2018 ? I confess I missed that one also.
Derf
I bought in Dec '18 yeah. Should have bought more, in hindsight.
Remember also the role that Ben Bernanke and the Fed played in the recovery. We tend to think of that as "normal" action now, but it was historically unique, and there were powerful conservative forces militantly opposed to his efforts. No one had a clue how that whole thing was going to play out- it looked like '29 all over again.
Interesting calendar math.
Be well,
Catch
No need for recession
Totally simplistic. The forces now set into motion are unstoppable, but how they eventually play out will be very interesting.
John, perhaps you do not recall, or were in a cave during the 2016 election cycle? Hillary carried a substantial lead throughout accordingly to "the polls". EVERY poll. Trump was expected to give his concession speech early on -- after he quickly "lost" Pennsylvania, Florida, and the Dems "Blue Wall". I mean, that is what the polls said would happen...
President Trump may win OR lose 2020. And I am sticking with that prediction. As a political candidate, the President has some undeniable handicaps: He has a massive ego, even compared to other Presidents. (And that is saying something.). He does a spectacularly poor job of broadening his base. In fact, he appears to have no interest in doing so. Most bizarre! And his oratorical style is blunt, brusque, and undiplomatic. If Obama was "eloquent", President Trump is "plain-spoken" and "unfiltered". Of course, that really is an issue of style. Lots of people on the Left are obsessed with style, thinking it more important than substance. While I concede I sometimes find the President's verbal style grating, I am much more focused on the substance of the man.
Candidate Trump has one big advantage though: His opponents. Bernie Sanders honeymooned in Moscow during the height of the Cold War. Talk about "Russian Collusion"! --- And not the kind manufactured by the opposition party... As for Joe Biden, imagine Joe Biden and the President on a debate stage two or 3 times. Think about that image for a while. Then, its pretty easy to see Joe spending the next 4 years anywhere but D.C....
We dearly love Bernie. So enthused
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0jIvWpu6WzM
I also love uncle Joe especially does not recall if he went to number #2 20mins prior or not
2020walk in park for uncle joe or grandpa sanders
The choice is so obvious when compared reta dt vs.. above
do you think warren-buttigieg can win? that does not sound so promising to me. young midwest mayor ...
it cannot be two women. did you read jcapehart's wapo family reunion piece (in SC, I think, maybe NC? I think everyone is AA, like him; many said no to black candidate, country not ready, and elders --- women --- said no woman, either, 'we tried that and look what happened' ... hence biden's reassuringness).
FWIW saying, I'm receiving noticeably more investment-signal service solicitations these days, including from services I briefly dabbled with over 10 years ago and haven't heard from in AGES. The contrarian in me takes that as a warning sign for equities.
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6079678010001/#sp=show-clips
President Trump may have grown a short-fuse. You or I probably would have too, if either of us had been slandered for 30 months about "Russian Collusion" lies hatched by the Clinton campaign using a 'retired' British spy. The news media owes POTUS equal time: 30 months of them apologizing to him in sackcloth and ashes.