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I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is

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  • edited January 19
    Derf said:

    What are your thoughts on live odds ?
    I figure it gives me a chance to lose more than once!


    The odds change continuously on the DKNG app. That’s what makes it so entertaining. If a game is completely out of hand or near the end, the live odds / betting are suspended.

    So yes. You can continue to throw money at the faltering team of your choice during the contest just as you can try to catch a “falling knife” investing. You can “sell” one position for cash and than “buy” a new position on the other team anytime during the live contest. This allows you to loose money on both teams during the same contest. Just as you can loose money on more than one stock or mutual fund on any given day.
    :)

    DKNG: at $22.50 today. I guess that’s about a 70% drop from 12 month high of around $75.00
    Another way to put it … Today you can buy 3X as many shares for the same amount of money as you would have 10 months ago, and have some change left over.

    PS - Great game between Wisconsin and Northwestern last evening. A Wisconsin player sunk a 3 pointer from the other end of the court with a second remaining on the clock in the first half. Check it out.
  • edited January 19
    Via SeekingAlpha just now..

    Cathie Wood believes that if a market bubble is growing, it is being created within value stocks and not growth names.
    "In our view, the real bubble could be building in such so-called "value" stocks with much higher valuations in the context of a five-year investment time horizon as opposed to last year," Cathie Wood wrote in ARK's latest quarterly report.
    Wood added: "Meanwhile, the valuations of many innovation related stocks have been cut in half."
    Moreover, in ARK's quarterly commentary report it also states: "In our view, long-term inflation fears are overblown because inventories are stacking up in the face of weak consumption."


    LOL the valuation of innovation stocks has been halved ... because they were overpriced to begin with and only got extremely moreso as time went on!!!!! And it's hilarious to hear her talking about long-term perspectives, since she's a short-term momentum player in her funds.

    It's like she's saying "it's not MY holdings that're risky, but YOURS, so there! *blows raspberry*"

    more from SA about her YTD performance...

    ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) -20%, ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKF) -18.9%, ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (BATS:ARKQ) -12.4%, ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKW) -18%, ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF (BATS:ARKG) -21.6%, and ARK Space Exploration ETF (BATS:ARKX) -9.9%.

    I want to know what color her straightjacket will be ... and what she's smoking.....
  • Hi @hank
    The below article is related to this thread, as some ARK funds travel the electronic gambling choices.
    As you have mentioned electronic gambling a few times over the past several months, I had this article dropped into my email today; which is an overview of gambling monies in Michigan for 2021.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • We are inundated here in SE MI by TV ads for several online sports books. All of them appear to offer “risk free” wagers to the newcomer. The fine print at the end of the ad gives a phone number for those who have a problem with gambling.
  • edited January 19
    BenWP said:

    We are inundated here in SE MI by TV ads for several online sports books. All of them appear to offer “risk free” wagers to the newcomer. The fine print at the end of the ad gives a phone number for those who have a problem with gambling.

    Let’s not get moralistic here. How many employees have wasted their company match 401 K money by “borrowing” against it in their working years or taking highly speculative market risks with it? Any of us can login to our accounts and make any number of risky plays 24 / 7. We just don’t call it gambling. Unfortunately, there’s no cure for stupidity.

    Here’s 7 High Risk Funds You Can Buy
    (Click arrows to scroll L - R)

    Sorry your days are being disturbed by those ads Ben. I don’t like them either. Michigan is getting to be a challenging place to live. Between the nuts plotting to kidnap our governor and the stoned drivers I frequently need to dodge while driving (because the state’s legalized pot) - YIKES

    ARTICLE: Online Gambling Tax Revenue in Michigan Far Exceeds 6-Month Predictions

    “After just six months of legal online gambling in Michigan, tax revenues have already exceeded the initial industry predictions, with the state taking in almost $90 million so far in 2021, nearly doubling what some experts had first expected.”

    “ Most of the online gambling tax revenue will go to help finance the Michigan School Aid Fund which covers the per-pupil foundation allowance, special education, at-risk programs, school lunch and breakfast, vocational education, and many other costly aspects of public education.

    “Also benefitting from these online gambling tax revenues is a fund for state firefighters afflicted with a certain type of cancer as well as a state fund through the Department of Health and Human Services meant for compulsive bettors whose gambling has gone beyond recreational.”


  • Thanks, @hank. I do hope the money gets to public education. I didn't intend to sound moralizing; I wouldn't buy a lottery ticket, but I do roll the dice on some questionable investments.
  • BenWP said:

    We are inundated here in SE MI by TV ads for several online sports books. All of them appear to offer “risk free” wagers to the newcomer. The fine print at the end of the ad gives a phone number for those who have a problem with gambling.

    FWIW saying at least for now, the NFL is restricting betting app ads to like 6 per 3-hour game. They're NOWHERE as annoying as State Farm or Verizon ads this season, for sure.

    By contrast, a few years ago, the last 5 minutes and first 30 minutes or so of games were filled with back-to-back-to-back Draftking or Fanduel ads.
  • edited January 19
    "In our view, the real bubble could be building in such so-called "value" stocks with much higher valuations in the context of a five-year investment time horizon as opposed to last year," "In our view, long-term inflation fears are overblown because inventories are stacking up in the face of weak consumption."

    I do not know enough about the stocks she invests in but she is coming across unhinged. No offense to real Karens but she should change her name to Karen Wood. She is now playing the victim card. I am waiting for her to play the gender card next.
  • edited January 19
    T. Rowe Price was the second largest holder of DKNG as of the end of September (behind Vanguard) https://www.holdingschannel.com/institutional/holders-of-dkng/
    -

    Interesting snippet on Wood’s troubles https://seekingalpha.com/news/3788991-cathie-woods-arkk-closes-at-an-18-month-low-as-all-its-holdings-end-negatively

    “Cathie Wood's troubles continue as ARKK experienced its most significant one day of capital outflows in 10-months last week, totaling $352M.”
  • edited January 20
    hank said:

    T. Rowe Price was the second largest holder of DKNG as of the end of September (behind Vanguard) https://www.holdingschannel.com/institutional/holders-of-dkng/
    -

    Interesting snippet on Wood’s troubles https://seekingalpha.com/news/3788991-cathie-woods-arkk-closes-at-an-18-month-low-as-all-its-holdings-end-negatively

    “Cathie Wood's troubles continue as ARKK experienced its most significant one day of capital outflows in 10-months last week, totaling $352M.”


    It wouldn't surprise me if many of the investors who recently exited ARKK got in near the top.
    Those investors would not have profited from the fund's spectacular 2017 or 2020 gains.
  • Jason Zweig, WSJ

    THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR
    "What the Hell, It Is Going Up Anyway"


    "My column last weekend, How a Flood of Money Swamped Cathie Wood's ARK, looked at how the billions that poured into the ARK funds might have impaired their returns.

    That's an old story, of course. Money has always chased past performance.

    Imagine a $100 million fund. It puts $5 million, or 5% of its assets, into a stock that has a total market value of $100 million. If it doubles, the fund gains 10%.

    Now say the fund has grown to $10 billion. If it puts $5 million into a stock, that’s only 0.05% of the fund’s assets. Such a teeny holding will have to go up 200-fold to contribute 10% to your return. If the manager wants to make a big bet, it takes $500 million now to put 5% of the fund into one stock -- larger than the entire market value of many smaller companies.

    You aren't the same person now as when you were a little kid. Why would you expect a fund to be?

    Yet all too many people do. No wonder they buy high and sell low: They are extrapolating an unsustainable past."

    So Cathie Woods bought into Tesla and the stock went ballistic putting ARKK on an unsustainable trajectory. So I know, lets attack her credibility, her investing acumen and methods, her personal beliefs, whatever we can think of including shorting her fund. We do that with all the fund managers when we lose our ass chasing performance don't we? It's good to be king. Wasn't ever our own personal faults or bad investing decisions. Too bad you can't close an ETF like you can a mutual fund. At least I don't think you can.
  • @hank

    >> How many employees have wasted their company match 401 K money by “borrowing” against it in their working years or taking highly speculative market risks with it?

    so ... what's the answer? do go on.
  • "T. Rowe Price was the second largest holder of DKNG as of the end of September (behind Vanguard) https://www.holdingschannel.com/institutional/holders-of-dkng/"
    Based on a total % of money being run would be more telling ,if you ask me.
    Enjoying the ride, Derf
  • @hank

    >> How many employees have wasted their company match 401 K money by “borrowing” against it in their working years or taking highly speculative market risks with it?

    so ... what's the answer? do go on.

    I don’t know. Thus the reason I used a ? at the end.

  • Just curious, do employees actually lose company match when they borrow within their 401k? I took loans from my 401k a few times in my earlier years but we didn't have matching contributions in those days. I always found borrowing your own money and paying yourself back, with interest, was better than paying a bank that interest. If the loan affects company contributions though, that would negate the benefits for sure.
  • edited January 20
    @MikeM - They don’t loose the match (as I recall from family member 30 years back). But they loose the potential invested growth of that $$ - albeit the “borrower” does pay interest on the loan. I don’t know how the government can force the individual to repay it. Slapping on penalties for failure to repay (or placing a lien on his home) would make the individual’s situation more dire.

    I can’t prove that any 401K participants have ever taken unreasonable risk with their invested money. (There are of course antidotal accounts.) Logic alone would suggest that:

    (1) We know a large number of working age population suffer from gambling addiction.

    (2) That shows these people do not manage their available cash / lines of credit responsibly.

    (3) It would be illogical to assume that these people who can’t manage day to day finance effectively somehow behave more responsibly managing funds earmarked for 30 or 40 years into the future.

    I did find that TIAA-CREF puts the % of workers who borrow at least once from their plan at nearly 30%.

    Thanks for joining in Mike.
  • @MikeM, a big issue with 401k/403b loans is that they become immediately due if you leave the job for any reason.

    Other things are plan dependent, e.g. the plan may not allow contributions while a loan is outstanding, and in that case, employer matching is gone too. Not sure about matching if contributions are allowed - logic says that those should be matched.

    https://www.creditkarma.com/personal-loans/i/loan-from-401k
  • A presumption here is that the money borrowed is being repaid. There's also money permanently lost ("leaked") from 401(k)'s - loans not repaid, hardship withdrawals, and cashing out (when changing jobs).

    Here's a 2022 Marketwatch story on four leakage studies, including a newly released one suggesting that leakage results in about a 30% reduction in plan balances. Add that to the loans that are repaid, and you've got a lot of money sloshing around. For who knows what purposes.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/401-k-and-ira-leakages-may-be-more-severe-than-previously-believed-11641223378
  • What about taxes due on the amount of withdrawals ? OUCH !!
  • edited January 20
    I was locked out of @msf’s link on my ipad, but accessed it on smaller screen iphone.

    “Leakages come from three sources: cash-outs when participants change jobs, hardship withdrawals, and the failure to repay loans. The government has attempted to discourage leakages by generally imposing a 10% penalty — in addition to regular income taxes — on withdrawals before age 591⁄2. “

    Well, these additional taxes and penalties ought to really help with the (likely “maxed-out”) plan participant’s financial situation!

    My point - irresponsible money management (including gambling) takes many different forms.
  • edited January 20
    Even Louis Rukeyser enjoyed gambling in his day!

    Mr. Rukeyser lived on 4 acres in Greenwich, Conn., with his wife, Alexandra Gill, a British journalist whom he met while working in London for The Sun … He enjoyed gambling, wine and fine dining, and traveled the world to sample the best restaurants and casinos. “The best inflation hedge is living well,” Mr. Rukeyser said in a Sun interview.

    Baltimore Sun
  • I'm embarrassed to say that , at times, I miss Uncle Lou !
  • edited January 20
    ARKK was actually positive (up a few cents) today in the face of dismal market action. Well, Cathie’s remaining investors have something to rejoice over! And, I’m trying to read whatever I can from that unexpected result.

    @carew388 - A class act in every sense as far as I can tell. The market calls weren’t always on target. But the atmosphere was always civil and the guests well versed in their specialty.
  • edited January 21
    @Mark, Did this forum members invest with Cathie Wood? Based on their investing temperament, I assumed none of them did. I did not mean to pile on but I have a very low opinion for anybody that peddles their religious beliefs in a business discussion. Her latest comments complaining about the current valuations of Value stocks do not endear her to me either. I do not know any good business person that talks down in public about competition, even if the competition is flawed, which in this case is not.
  • edited January 20
    @hank Tesla, Coinbase and Bitcoin were up today so that’s probably why ARKK was up.
  • @BaluBalu - I did but I was in before the huge run up and out in May 2021. There were others. Although I agreed with her "disrupter" thesis it was strictly a momentum trade on my part. I still think the disrupter thesis has merit but valuations are nuts.
  • edited January 20
    I’m only interested in what her fund owns and how its holdings fits in with overall market valuations, action. sentiment. Cathie is little consequence to me. However, I have a degree of empathy for anyone down on their luck - even when the problems are of their own making.

    I’m not very religious. So would probably have a similar adverse reaction to someone mixing religion and business. Or religion and politics. Religion and education. Or religion and anything else. On the other hand, that alone would not deter me from owning her fund if it otherwise fit my needs / risk profile. It doesn’t currently, but another 25-35% down from here and it might.
    Mark said:

    I still think the disrupter thesis has merit but valuations are nuts.

    After a 50% + fall from peak, I’m wondering where reasonable value might be. A lot depends on the economy, Fed policies, and perhaps even market psychology. That last one, psychology, has a lot to do with valuations running amuck here and elsewhere.

  • edited January 20
    Prof Damodaran's reaction to Cathie poking at the Value stocks -

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