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@stillers ...having a significant amount in a high-flyer can create a bit of anxiety. This certainly applies to holders of individual equities, but I'm wondering why folks with significant positions in SPY (or similar) aren't equally wary. They should be.
"...a bit of anxiety" did NOT cause me to sell GOOGL. The speed at which I made 6% did! As noted in my BUY post, this was either going to be a ST trade of a LT holding. I met my hurdle for a ST trade and executed it. Simple as that.
On your last point, I'd offer up one of Peter Lynch's infamous quotes: “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves."
My own portfolio, and those of family members I help manage are going gangbusters the last 3 months or so, but at least for my late-70’s parents, I am “dancing near the exit” (as DI used to say in the old M* forums).
My own portfolio, and those of family members I help manage are going gangbusters the last 3 months or so, but at least for my late-70’s parents, I am “dancing near the exit” (as DI used to say in the old M* forums).
Thanks, man! But to my discredit (sic), even a blind squirrel finds a nut from time to time!
That said, the immediate, after-hours DROP GOOGL experienced (about 7%) after solid earnings and guidance just seemed nutty to me and that notion was quickly confirmed by a few talking heads I respect.
Sadly, on the flip side, I fear that this rare Fast Money (so to speak) trade may embolden me to try another. That has the missus in a bit of a tizzy as we speak! Especially with NVDA earnings coming soon, and a possible replay of what happened to and what I did with GOOGL!
And thank you also for the DI reference. Those iconic words of his are actually ringing in my ear as this weekend I am trying to determine if, in addition to recently shaving some FSELX profits, I shouldn't also be nudging my way to the exits on a coupla other outperforming holdings.
@stillers Your last sentence peaked my interest. " Those iconic words of his are actually ringing in my ear as this weekend I am trying to determine if, in addition to recently shaving some FSELX profits, I shouldn't also be nudging my way to the exits on a coupla other outperforming holdings.
What do you consider out performing or how do you determine outperforming. For instance , % above all time high or a certain % of gain over a certain amount of time.
What do you consider out performing or how do you determine outperforming. For instance , % above all time high or a certain % of gain over a certain amount of time. Thank you for your time, Derf
SOLD a bunch of stuff at the close yesterday, shaving off outperformance gains primarily achieved over the past 3 1/2 months. Effectively reduced stock exposure by about 25%. The old DI exit door reference by @Graust had changed from a ringing to a pounding in my ear.
Parked proceeds in FZDXX awaiting possible lower re-entry points and/or a ST play on NVDA after earnings later this month. Did however add to position we started in SCG NEAGX and may start dumping in there IF (when?) SCs start to Rock the Casbah.
@Mark ...those are 2 interesting newer funds. I like active ETFs with less than 100 stocks, because it potentially offers better returns. CGDV certainly has an eclectic portfolio.
@PRESSmUP - Agreed and I share your thoughts on small, active ETF's. I currently think of both as SPY-Lite as neither are over exposed to the heavy hitters.
Well, a reminder of DI's legendary "dancing at the exits" mantra helped push us part way out the door yesterday as previously noted to the tune of reducing our stock exposure by 25%. We had planned to let the proceeds idle for a while, waiting for BIG opportunities, but today's action was bad enough to prompt us to accelerate our DCA'ing into NEAGX and GSIHX, now leaving us close to full positions in both.
Aside: NVDA's action today makes one wonder if it is (for the time being at least) invincible. It ain't of course, but one could make the argument. Countdown is on to earnings later this month.
I wouldn't be surprised if the market drops back another 5-10% from today. Heck, the S&P 500 is still up ~15% since the start of Nov. If I buy anything it will probably be adding to balanced fund CGBL, Capital Group Core Balanced. A limit order buy kicked in today, but I'll wait a bit to place another.
I think my only up-tick today was SPC, CROSSINGBRIDGE PRE MERGR SPAC ETF, managed by David Sherman. It was up ~.2% on this crappy day. I won't pretend to understand it completely, but I've owned it since early 2022 and it is one heck of a steady trend upward.
By the way, my 5-10% predicted drop from here will likely spur the markets to new highs tomorrow.
Picked the wrong day. Sold out of PRNEX (nat. res.) and put the proceeds where it would be handy, in a bond fund with end-of-month dividends. I am anticipating needing to grab a small bunch of money there. Help with the niece's school and relocation.
But is there a GOOD day to sell PRNEX? That would have been yesterday. Hindsight is 20/20. And oil was UP today, but the fund was down. LOSER. Glad to be rid of it. Monthly divs will surely feel good from the junk fund. My 2 junk funds are almost 30% of portfolio now. At some point, I will want to adjust and send some $$ to a core-plus fund like DODIX or something like it.
*EDIT to add that I forgot about FALN. "Fallen Angels" which have just lately fallen from Investment Grade status. It's just a FRACTION of my total today. "Mr. Market" always overreacts, both downside and upside. Dunno if Ben Graham put that in his book, but if not, he ought to have done. I have noticed it since I got started with investing, from the get-go.
Initiated a position in TCAF in our taxable account today, first ETF I've ever purchased.
Added to our Mastercard (MA) stock yesterday, have owned and been adding to it here and there in our taxable account since the summer of 2020 and second half of 2022 mainly until this week.
Added back more stock exposure again today via the the same suspects. After the 3-day dust settles tonight, this week's uncommon rash of OEF trades effectively resulted in a slight rearrangement of some deck chairs, including jettisoning a LCV fund, and a now much smaller reduction of stock exposure, the latter in anticipation of opportunities to come.
Getting more and more convinced that Value investing is effectively being killed by Index investing. Read a convincing article on that topic last week by a very, very sad Value PM who pointed to that as an impossible hurdle for Value PM's to overcome. Port now tilted even further toward domestic, LCG, overweight technology, with a healthy dose of Mag 7.
Had some money sitting in the taxable from the sale of some Vanguard indexes. Started to spend that today. Might spend a little more later in the day.
Bought AMAGX, which is about the best of the LCG OEF's available to me at Wells Fargo for no fee., or otherwise. I like their avoidance of debt, financials, and real estate. I especially like a beta under 1 in a LCG.
Bought XMHQ. The P/E is still only 16.29.
Bought VSMIX, no fee. I'ld rather buy a fund that's about to close than one that just reopened. Learned that lesson with SEQUX.
Bought a sliver of SMH for fun.
Thinking about adding some QLTY. Might add a little to existing positions in SYLD, RWJ, and SPGP
Added to NEAGX on overall, smallish SC weakness and specific, biggish weakness of SMCI. Can't quite bring ourselves to top off this puppy just yet, given its HIGH volatility and uncertainty if we are seeing lasting SC participation or simply another head fake.
Thanks to @MikeW for your invaluable insights on this fund!
Like several Invesco funds, this one had a different ticker and strategy until 2019. Something to keep in mind since M* and Lipper don't note the changes.
Entered order today for next-to-last sliver of NEAGX per the same reasons as last BUY.
Also, could not resist starting position in NVDA today with first BUY while it was DOWN ~6%, a rare event indeed. Will be monitoring price action closely thru earnings announcement after the bell on Wed, in case anyone is not aware of it. It's carrying a +/-11% possible swing into the announcement. Today's DROP may be part of all that already, as many happy owners may be booking gains in advance. Plan here is same a recent GOOGL trade: If we can make a quick 5%-15%, may cash it in for a ST play, otherwise, will hold LT.
Entered order today for next-to-last sliver of NEAGX per the same reasons as last BUY.
Good trade on GOOG. I hope it works out with NVDA as well.
Just curious, Do you mind sharing what %age of your portfolio you anticipate is your NEAGX position? Thanks
Thanks and sure.
BTW, GOOGL is back at the price we BOT it and then SOLD it within 10 days for 6%. We are entertaining a repeat ride on it in addition to our current NVDA play.
We have LT experience with fellow high-flyer FSELX so we are comfortable with it at 10%.
We are conversely very new to NEAGX, having watched it for a year or more but never taking the plunge until this year. We are building it to no more than 5% for the time being, but MAY increase it IF IF IF SCs start to show signs of full participation and outperformance.
NEAGX MAY only be a 2024 holding while we will likely be taking FSELX to our graves, so to speak. Per venerable M* poster: "Volatility is the price we pay for growth!"
EDIT_1: BTW, SMCI is getting hammered again today for anyone looking at NEAGX as a possible SCG play.
EDIT_2: NVDA, DOWN over 6%, came knocking and we obliged by adding a 2nd sliver.
SMCI is down only 4% as I write but a lot of NEAGX holdings are down today as much or more. So, today could be a good day to add if one is playing for a big 2024 gain for SCG.
Your NVDA trade is already making money for you!...
Whoa, Nellie!
But thanks! Always nice to end the first day in positive territory, BUT there's a LOT more wood to chop before we look at +/- action as this was just our projected first round of BUYs.
2/20: BOT on what we saw as an unexpected and unwarranted 6+% DROP and initial BUYing opportunity. 2/21: Watching pre-market action NOW to see if price dips below our 2/20 avg price. So far yesterday's DROP is holding as the interim low. 2/21: Market action today before the Close should be interesting as we watch for another opportunity to add more slivers. 2/21: The BIG though moments come after the bell when we see how market participants are playing earnings then guidance. There is some anecdotal chatter that its price will in fact be punished. 2/22: The morning after as the dust settles, still may present another BUYing opportunity.
Cash is on hand to BUY more whenever/if ever, what we view as opportunities arise.
2/21: Watching pre-market action NOW to see if price dips below our 2/20 avg price. So far yesterday's DROP is holding as the interim low.
Just before pre-market action closed we were able to about double our shares while and bringing our avg BUY price down about a buck. So all's good there. Given the share level we reached at this point, we'll likely wait until the fireworks AFTER the bell today to make any more BUYs.
Added a coupla more slivers of NVDA pre-earnings, as price appeared to be bottoming out in last hour. Now at 70% of intended position. DCA'd avg cost basis only DOWN a little under 1/2% from current price. In retrospect, appear to have started BUYs yesterday a bit too early, but I'll take it. Planning to BUY remaining last 3 slivers after earnings announcement, pending price action.
Comments
As noted in my BUY post, this was either going to be a ST trade of a LT holding. I met my hurdle for a ST trade and executed it. Simple as that.
On your last point, I'd offer up one of Peter Lynch's infamous quotes: “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves."
To wit:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/stock-market-investors-fear-megacap-133300544.html
Nice trade! Also agree with the Lynch quote.
My own portfolio, and those of family members I help manage are going gangbusters the last 3 months or so, but at least for my late-70’s parents, I am “dancing near the exit” (as DI used to say in the old M* forums).
That said, the immediate, after-hours DROP GOOGL experienced (about 7%) after solid earnings and guidance just seemed nutty to me and that notion was quickly confirmed by a few talking heads I respect.
Sadly, on the flip side, I fear that this rare Fast Money (so to speak) trade may embolden me to try another. That has the missus in a bit of a tizzy as we speak! Especially with NVDA earnings coming soon, and a possible replay of what happened to and what I did with GOOGL!
And thank you also for the DI reference. Those iconic words of his are actually ringing in my ear as this weekend I am trying to determine if, in addition to recently shaving some FSELX profits, I shouldn't also be nudging my way to the exits on a coupla other outperforming holdings.
What do you consider out performing or how do you determine outperforming. For instance , % above all time high or a certain % of gain over a certain amount of time.
Thank you for your time, Derf
Parked proceeds in FZDXX awaiting possible lower re-entry points and/or a ST play on NVDA after earnings later this month. Did however add to position we started in SCG NEAGX and may start dumping in there IF (when?) SCs start to Rock the Casbah.
https://www.etf.com/CGDV
Aside: NVDA's action today makes one wonder if it is (for the time being at least) invincible. It ain't of course, but one could make the argument. Countdown is on to earnings later this month.
I think my only up-tick today was SPC, CROSSINGBRIDGE PRE MERGR SPAC ETF, managed by David Sherman. It was up ~.2% on this crappy day. I won't pretend to understand it completely, but I've owned it since early 2022 and it is one heck of a steady trend upward.
By the way, my 5-10% predicted drop from here will likely spur the markets to new highs
But is there a GOOD day to sell PRNEX? That would have been yesterday. Hindsight is 20/20. And oil was UP today, but the fund was down. LOSER. Glad to be rid of it. Monthly divs will surely feel good from the junk fund. My 2 junk funds are almost 30% of portfolio now. At some point, I will want to adjust and send some $$ to a core-plus fund like DODIX or something like it.
*EDIT to add that I forgot about FALN. "Fallen Angels" which have just lately fallen from Investment Grade status. It's just a FRACTION of my total today.
"Mr. Market" always overreacts, both downside and upside. Dunno if Ben Graham put that in his book, but if not, he ought to have done. I have noticed it since I got started with investing, from the get-go.
Added to our Mastercard (MA) stock yesterday, have owned and been adding to it here and there in our taxable account since the summer of 2020 and second half of 2022 mainly until this week.
Getting more and more convinced that Value investing is effectively being killed by Index investing. Read a convincing article on that topic last week by a very, very sad Value PM who pointed to that as an impossible hurdle for Value PM's to overcome. Port now tilted even further toward domestic, LCG, overweight technology, with a healthy dose of Mag 7.
Bought AMAGX, which is about the best of the LCG OEF's available to me at Wells Fargo for no fee., or otherwise. I like their avoidance of debt, financials, and real estate. I especially like a beta under 1 in a LCG.
Bought XMHQ. The P/E is still only 16.29.
Bought VSMIX, no fee. I'ld rather buy a fund that's about to close than one that just reopened. Learned that lesson with SEQUX.
Bought a sliver of SMH for fun.
Thinking about adding some QLTY. Might add a little to existing positions in SYLD, RWJ, and SPGP
Nevermind, I found it.
Thanks to @MikeW for your invaluable insights on this fund!
Also, could not resist starting position in NVDA today with first BUY while it was DOWN ~6%, a rare event indeed. Will be monitoring price action closely thru earnings announcement after the bell on Wed, in case anyone is not aware of it. It's carrying a +/-11% possible swing into the announcement. Today's DROP may be part of all that already, as many happy owners may be booking gains in advance. Plan here is same a recent GOOGL trade: If we can make a quick 5%-15%, may cash it in for a ST play, otherwise, will hold LT.
Just curious, Do you mind sharing what %age of your portfolio you anticipate is your NEAGX position? Thanks
BTW, GOOGL is back at the price we BOT it and then SOLD it within 10 days for 6%. We are entertaining a repeat ride on it in addition to our current NVDA play.
We have LT experience with fellow high-flyer FSELX so we are comfortable with it at 10%.
We are conversely very new to NEAGX, having watched it for a year or more but never taking the plunge until this year. We are building it to no more than 5% for the time being, but MAY increase it IF IF IF SCs start to show signs of full participation and outperformance.
NEAGX MAY only be a 2024 holding while we will likely be taking FSELX to our graves, so to speak. Per venerable M* poster: "Volatility is the price we pay for growth!"
EDIT_1: BTW, SMCI is getting hammered again today for anyone looking at NEAGX as a possible SCG play.
EDIT_2: NVDA, DOWN over 6%, came knocking and we obliged by adding a 2nd sliver.
Your NVDA trade is already making money for you!
SMCI is down only 4% as I write but a lot of NEAGX holdings are down today as much or more. So, today could be a good day to add if one is playing for a big 2024 gain for SCG.
But thanks! Always nice to end the first day in positive territory, BUT there's a LOT more wood to chop before we look at +/- action as this was just our projected first round of BUYs.
2/20: BOT on what we saw as an unexpected and unwarranted 6+% DROP and initial BUYing opportunity.
2/21: Watching pre-market action NOW to see if price dips below our 2/20 avg price. So far yesterday's DROP is holding as the interim low.
2/21: Market action today before the Close should be interesting as we watch for another opportunity to add more slivers.
2/21: The BIG though moments come after the bell when we see how market participants are playing earnings then guidance. There is some anecdotal chatter that its price will in fact be punished.
2/22: The morning after as the dust settles, still may present another BUYing opportunity.
Cash is on hand to BUY more whenever/if ever, what we view as opportunities arise.
Just before pre-market action closed we were able to about double our shares while and bringing our avg BUY price down about a buck. So all's good there. Given the share level we reached at this point, we'll likely wait until the fireworks AFTER the bell today to make any more BUYs.