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@Sven I’m a major user and big believer of MFO Premium. I use it to analyze every fund before I purchase. Charles and team do an incredible job in providing data that you can’t access anywhere else unless you are a professional in the biz. We are lucky that they contribute the time and effort to make this available.
From the closing low on the S&P 500 Index at 2237 on 3/23 I have the Index up through today's market close of 2630 at 17.5%. Since, I bought at the 8, 13, 19, 26, 28 & 26 percent decline marks my average buy computes to 20% off the Index's 52 week high at about 2710. This is the point that I will go green on my packaged buys; however, as I write, I currently have three buy steps in the green (26% down, 28% down & then 26% moving back upwards). For now, I'm on hold going forward with nearterm equity buys as there is no longer an open to buy on the equity side of my portfolio as I'm at a near full allocation.
However, I might do a little nearterm buying on the income side of my portfolio. Fixed income has taken a beating of late and with my open to buy now on the fixed income side of my portfolio ... it says ... its time to shop.
"When you have the money" is my initial answer to the question. DCA into a position and embrace volatility to the downside to buy more at lower prices.
Too many unknown to even consider that SA Pollyanna view. I'll wait for Mr. Price to weigh in and I'm willing to miss the absolute bottom to do so. Hopefully by Fall the smog will start to lift but until then I'm willing to accumulate cash to see what the new investing world is taking shape as.
Edit: Furthermore, waiting allows me to see how some funds I'm interested in manage the destruction. AKREX, FSMEX and QQQ/FTEC are at the top of the list. If I do anything it will be small nibbles and not bites.
Yes, at least that's the way I interpreted his article but I'll reread it and correct my statement if I was wrong. He seemed to be saying that this is as bad as we're going to see it and readers would be missing a golden opportunity by waiting longer to get back in. I disagree but I'm willing to be the only idiot around.
On today’s down market, I started a first buy into my high conviction funds, adding modestly to SCHB, MTUM and VIGI. I am still at 40%+ cash. Will continue adding on big down days.
I'm not in a hurry to buy any stocks because 1) we are in a bear market 2) VIX > 60 is still very high 3) We got the bounce we expected 4) usually, bear markets don't end with a V shape recovery and why I expect stocks to fall back.
But, I think that Munis represent the best risk/reward option and why I'm back invested at a very high % (bought in mid last week) mainly in HY MUNIS.
“He seemed to be saying that this is as bad as we're going to see it and readers would be missing a golden opportunity by waiting longer to get back in.”
Hi Mark,
I think the article ended with the author about to reduce risk: “If we reach any of these key resistance levels between now and next Thursday, investors should carefully consider whether they want to use this bounce opportunity to exit before things really start to pick up in April. This is precisely what I will be doing in the week ahead with an eye toward reducing risk.”
@Old_Joe, @MikeW Guys I used to own this fund for 3 years, then sold it because I was worried about manager succession. Needless to say was a mistake, but can't complain too much. So now aren't you at least little bit worried for the same reason?
AKREX is a small position for me. Im actually more worried about its 45% allocation to financials than I am about manager succession. Performance has been outstanding but I worry that his 4x weighting of financials vs the benchmark will bite him one day. Hasnt yet.
Mike, I’ve been invested in a AKREX/AKRIX since 2017. Although it’s highly concentrated and particularly in financials, I don’t think that’s too much to worry about.
26% of the 45% invested in financials is with MasterCard, Visa and Moody’s. They should do well going forward unless we truly fall into a deep recession or depression.
IMO it is not going to happen. A slow down yes, maybe a quarter or possibly two, but nothing more than that unless something very unexpected occurs.
Yes, I agree with what @mcmarasco said about the funds "financial" holding being Visa and MasterCard, 2 great long term holdings. If you look up those stocks you will see they are categorized as IT, not financial.
As far as manager succession John Neff, co-manager, has been mentoring with Aker for 6 years. I've listened to interviews and have been impressed. I don't have a problem with succession. I doubt Aker would walk away totally anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if he retires and still hangs as a consultant.
Comments
From the closing low on the S&P 500 Index at 2237 on 3/23 I have the Index up through today's market close of 2630 at 17.5%. Since, I bought at the 8, 13, 19, 26, 28 & 26 percent decline marks my average buy computes to 20% off the Index's 52 week high at about 2710. This is the point that I will go green on my packaged buys; however, as I write, I currently have three buy steps in the green (26% down, 28% down & then 26% moving back upwards). For now, I'm on hold going forward with nearterm equity buys as there is no longer an open to buy on the equity side of my portfolio as I'm at a near full allocation.
However, I might do a little nearterm buying on the income side of my portfolio. Fixed income has taken a beating of late and with my open to buy now on the fixed income side of my portfolio ... it says ... its time to shop.
Take care ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
"When you have the money" is my initial answer to the question. DCA into a position and embrace volatility to the downside to buy more at lower prices.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/business/stock-market-pandemic-coronavirus.html
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334374-you-one-week-to-decide?
Edit: Furthermore, waiting allows me to see how some funds I'm interested in manage the destruction. AKREX, FSMEX and QQQ/FTEC are at the top of the list. If I do anything it will be small nibbles and not bites.
But, I think that Munis represent the best risk/reward option and why I'm back invested at a very high % (bought in mid last week) mainly in HY MUNIS.
Hi Mark,
I think the article ended with the author about to reduce risk:
“If we reach any of these key resistance levels between now and next Thursday, investors should carefully consider whether they want to use this bounce opportunity to exit before things really start to pick up in April. This is precisely what I will be doing in the week ahead with an eye toward reducing risk.”
Brian
Guys I used to own this fund for 3 years, then sold it because I was worried about manager succession. Needless to say was a mistake, but can't complain too much.
So now aren't you at least little bit worried for the same reason?
26% of the 45% invested in financials is with MasterCard, Visa and Moody’s. They should do well going forward unless we truly fall into a deep recession or depression.
IMO it is not going to happen. A slow down yes, maybe a quarter or possibly two, but nothing more than that unless something very unexpected occurs.
As far as manager succession John Neff, co-manager, has been mentoring with Aker for 6 years. I've listened to interviews and have been impressed. I don't have a problem with succession. I doubt Aker would walk away totally anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if he retires and still hangs as a consultant.