I will not start buying longer-term until I see the following:
When to buy Stocks? When the price will cross 100 days moving average.
SP500 (
chart) from 2008 to 2009. See the 3 moving averages below. 100 MA(red line) is the best, not too early and not too late. For the current chart, use this (
link).
When to buy CEFs? PCI(
chart). Use weekly MACD and enter when it's positive.
When to buy Bond OEFs: PIMIX (
chart). You want to see several weeks of uptrend
With my own money, I'm mostly in cash/MM since 2/28 and at 99+% in MM since March 09. Since 2/28 I mostly trade and back to MM. I don't recommend it to others. Just wait for the above for an entry.
Comments
DOWS -18% For week
When you see number deaths usa severely up and market still up/curve starting flattening, maybe good time to tiptoe in
Energy and other sectors appear extremely cheap though
You start buying just after you projectile vomit all over your screen.
Start window shopping now for the post virus world. Don't try to play the froth. Go after those that are winning in this nastiness.
Just my plan,
Rono
When in doubt, stop and make a cup of tea. Eventually, this thing will be behind us. Rono's words make sense. Can we see the light at the end of the tunnel, yet? Even if we can, do we know how long the tunnel is?
https://d29k3dcgpah9r8.cloudfront.net/54d6c5deebacc0c815ef9f59aa29fc0d_500
At some point, these days will be in the past. THEN, we can assert:
"...Now, this is not the end. This is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
There will truly need to be a response by the world's governments that is Marshall Plan-like, in order to recover. (That help was offered to uncle Joe Stalin The Terrible, but he refused it.) But the US is not pre-eminent, the way it was, right after The War. An emphasis on public welfare, not private profit, will need to happen. Like all of those alphabet-soup FDR programs. Let governments everywhere reclaim their purpose, SERVING THE PEOPLE. Then profits will follow. Because we'll never get rid of markets. Because they are useful, when REGULATED.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4332963-spy-plan-now-to-buy-bottom
Perhaps start small portions next week or two/have quick stop loss selling signals though
I also learned that if many agree on the same indicators they will not work as well and 50/200 cross is one of them.
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1
Be sure to check out the Asset Allocation Update(s). It might give you some buying queues. Just this week it went from 15% equity to 60% equity and can go up to 90% equity should the stock market continue to decline.
I have no idea.
Derf
Agree, 100%. Some day this will be viewed as the buying opportunity of our lifetime, by a mile. If that turns out not to be the case, we are all screwed. Those holding all cash will not be much better off...if at all. There will be riots in the street, hyperinflation from failed government stimulus, etc.
Just some Sat. morning thoughts running through my coffee induced head.
Enjoy your weekend, Derf
P.S. @rforno did you
buy during 3/rd qter
drop 2018 ?
Have a good weekend, Derf
re: 2018's Christmas swoon ... yes, I did some buying back then, mostly adding to existing positions. Nothing like what I've been doing these days, though.
I had some dry powder in my 403(b) that I normally use over the summer to invest into things when my employer contributions stop - but I deployed it 2x during the China spring swoon of what ... 2015? and have used it a few times now to buy into my one mutual fund holding as it has fallen. The dry powder left in that account now is down to about the equivalent of a month's employer contribution.
The number of deaths in Italy doubles every 3 days, in New York - every 2 days. This is exponential growth, in its early stages. The total number is small, one death per million people in US, so there is no panic yet. However, if this growth continues unmitigated, real panic may ensue. And in that case, the bottom perhaps will be at a very different level. It is a binary outcome: Either the outbreak subsides soon enough, or not. This may affect the way we are placing the bets.
MikeW, I fully agree that the financial support may give huge unexpected boost to the market. I am still 60% invested, I do not want to be too smart about things that I do not understand well enough. My main concern is that if the outbreak is not mitigated soon, the emotional response will be very strong, and the standard tools like looking at the 200 day moving average may not help us to understand what is going on. Probably we will know part of the answer soon.
[Search domain en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Economic_Stabilization_Act_of_2008] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Economic_Stabilization_Act_of_2008
The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, often called the "bank bailout of 2008," was proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, passed by the 110th United States Congress, and signed into law by President George W. Bush.The act became law as part of Public Law 110-343 on October 3, 2008, in the midst of the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
Your welcome, Derf
The below chart start point is set in reference to the vote date for the "bail out" program.
SPY large cap, one year, Oct. 14, 2008 - Oct. 15, 2009
So, $100k on Oct. 14, 2008 has a value of $68,500 on March 6, 2009 (-31.5%) and finds a break even point about Aug. 1, 2009. One year out finds a +9.9% on Oct. 15, 2009. Course, the sell down began earlier than Oct. 14, 2008 and many SP500 type holdings had a lower negative, for a short period.
Aside from the commonly known "congressional bail out package" vote that passed Oct. 14, are 2 other support programs; being TARP and TALF. You may read more from this March 17 post. TARP and TALF are clickable links in the March 17 write. From recall, I believe the TALF program continued into April, 2010. These 3 "bailout programs were not solely aimed at the large banks; but towards companies on the edge of "no money" remaining; as in insurance companies that would not be able to support payouts to clients. This list would include life insurance policies and all of the annuities, etc.
Well, anyway. My 2 cents worth.
Take care,
Catch
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• How close are you to retirement?
• Do you believe that the equity markets will eventually recover and continue to operate as they have historically?
If you have five to ten years left to accumulate before retirement, and you believe that the markets will, in time, recover, then what's the problem with buying right now? There's a "1/3 off sale" going on even as we sit here.
If you're a little early, the market will decline even more before stabilizing and beginning another upward cycle. If you prefer to buy a little now, and maybe a bit more each week for a while, you will either get even better prices or maybe pay just a bit more, depending on what the markets do. Nobody knows exactly when we will hit bottom, but we're certainly in a good buying area right now.
Please note that I'm restricting my perspective to the equity market. What the bond market will do is being manipulated by so many outside actors that it's impossible to know what's going to happen. I'll leave the bond commentary to my friend Catch22.
Why not use another allocation fund & compare it to PRCWX.
No harm no foul, Derf