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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Re : teds Comment/Post on re-Balancing - Looking for advice
    @newgirl,
    I own the A shares of AIG Focused Dividend Strategy (FDSAX) while you have another share class of the same fund with symbol FDSWX. Of late this fund has started to come on pretty strong with it's rolling one week return being listed by Morningstar at 1.21%, one month at 1.88% and 3 month at 9.12%. In addition, Moringstar list its five year rolling total return at 9.43%. AIG Focused Dividend Strategy is a value fund and value has been out of favor for the past couple of years while growth has been the place to be. My position was built over the past ten years, or so, thus it is a long term position for me, held in a taxable account, and has sizeable capital gains exposure (much like you) which would be taxable if I sold. One of the things that I like about the fund is that it usually kicks off a good bit of income annually (dividends and capital gains). Another one is about a third of its equity is positioned in the Dogs of the Dow strategy.
    In comparing FDSAX to some other dividend type funds (INUTX, IDIVX, LCEAX & PQIAX) I decided, for me, it was still a keeper.
    Wishing you the very best as you perform your own due diligence.
  • Re : teds Comment/Post on re-Balancing - Looking for advice
    I am having pulling the trigger myself. I just took back an account previously managed by and advisor.
    I am having trouble pulling the trigger to sell out of positions, especially those with a capital gain. By the MFO premium analysis FDSWX - looks to be underperforming last 5 years, especially this year. Ditto BPIRX which is a long short - (might this do better in the brewing storm ?). Both are in taxable accounts with gains . Advice on how to proceed is welcome.
  • 12 Low-Cost Active Funds That Are Beating The S&P 500
    Investment News seems to be putting out a bunch of top 12 (or whatever) funds. Here, it's "best-performing", not "some of the best performing". I guess I don't understand their criteria, because ISTM there are several funds that belong among these dozen:
    4.5 Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX)
    5.5 Harbor Capital Appreciation (HACAX)
    5.8 Vanguard Primecap (VPMAX)
    7.5 Fidelity Growth Discovery (FDSVX)
    8.5 Fidelity Trend (FTRNX)
    8.8 T. Rowe Price Growth Stock (PRGFX)
    (BTW, the ticker for Magellan is wrong - IN's error, not Ted's; should be FMAGX)
    From these "magnificent dozen", one can't infer anything.
    One can't infer that management skill played any role here, since these are all growth funds. The outperformance might be due to your choosing growth over value in the past year, and may have had nothing to do with the fund managers' skill.
    Or skill might have had everything to do with it, and it might be easy for managers to beat the S&P 500. The list of such funds that beat the S&P 500 is clearly larger than twelve. From the information given, you don't know whether there are just six more funds or a thousand more funds that outperformed.
    In short, this doesn't really serve as evidence of much of anything. It's just a somewhat random list of large cap growth funds that happened to beat the S&P 500 over an arbitrarily selected time period (ending July 27) with an arbitrarily chosen cutoff ER.
  • MFCFX vs. PROVX
    This month David provided an interesting follow-on to the merging of Marsico Flexible Capital and Marsico Global. "Briefly Noted," https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/08/briefly-noted-24/#more-11945. He thoughtfully researched possible alternatives to MFCFX and came up with a grid of several balanced/allocation funds. As a result, Provident Trust (PROVX) came to light and he commented, "And if you’re suddenly wondering why we haven’t profiled Provident Trust yet, join the club. I’m wondering the same thing."
    I used to own MFCFX and the whole time I wondered how it got categorized as an allocation fund; for me it was a global growth fund whose mandate allowed it to invest in other "stuff." It rarely did and even today it has nothing but stocks and a bit of cash. These days M* has an 85%+ allocation category, the best fit, I think, for a fund that does in fact allocate.
    Apparently PROVX would fall into that category, but M* has it pegged as Large Growth. In any event, PROVX today is a highly concentrated (14 stocks) large-cap growth fund with about 10% cash and 5% bonds. Its performance is terrific, from almost any angle, but most assuredly from the perspective of a 85%+ allocation instrument. I would compliment the fund manager on a succinct and rare summary of what he does, has done in the past, and what market conditions prevail now and into the near future. To wit: https://www.provfunds.com/docs/06.30.18 Shareholder Letter.pdf
    According to the letter, the fund really has been flexible with respect to its equity allocation. I have not followed it. I guess a small fund could jump in and out of stocks efficiently, but I couldn't imagine FPACX (one of the other balanced funds used as a comparison) doing the same. Provident's turnover ratio is so impossibly low as to confound us. I hope David can profile PROVX as it sounds interesting.
  • 12 Low-Cost Active Funds That Are Beating The S&P 500
    FYI: With Fidelity Investments resetting the fee-war bar with its new zero-cost index funds, we thought it was time to look at the best-performing actively managed mutual funds with expense ratios below 70 basis points.
    Culling data from CFRA and Morningstar, the following list includes actively-managed U.S. equity mutual funds with at least $100 million in assets.
    The 12-month performance numbers are through July 27 and compare to a 16.1% return by the S&P 500 Index over the same period.
    Regards,
    Ted
    1. PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth (POAGX)
    2. PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX)
    3. Fidelity Focused Stock (FTQGX)
    4. Vanguard Explorer (VEXRX)
    5. Vanguard US Growth (VWUAX)
    6. Vanguard Capital Opportunity (VHCAX)
    7. Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth (VMGRX)
    8. Vanguard Morgan Growth (VMRAX
    9. Fidelity Magellan (FAMGX)
    10. American Funds Growth Fund of America (AGTHX)
    11 .American Funds AMCAP (AMCPX)
    12. Fidelity Fund (FFIDX)
    http://www.investmentnews.com/gallery/20180803/FREE/803009999/PH/12-low-cost-active-funds-that-are-beating-the-sp-500
  • Buoyant Economy Or A Blip? 4 Tips For Investing Before The Party Ends
    Hi @Ted,
    I share your feelings on the social and political issue postings and I was close to leaving myself; but, I decided to stay since these type postings have diminished of late. Should you decide to leave know that I have appreciated your many postings through the years (back into fund alarm days) and I have found a good number of these post to be most beneficial to my investing endeavors.
    Please know, you will be missed by me and I am sure some others should you decide to leave. I'm thinking the board will become a dull place without you; and, with that said others will also leave. Perhaps, myself as well.
    Over the years and of recent one of the things that I found great favor in was that many of your postings gave credence to my own thinking. This post was one of them in more ways than one as well as the one I have linked below.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/42630/investors-move-to-cash-anticipating-democratic-gains-in-u-s-nov-elections#latest
    Thanks again, Ted, much appreciated.
    Old_Skeet
  • CEF resources and recommendations
    "Information on closed-end funds is far more limited than
    their more popular relatives, mutual funds and exchange-
    traded funds," thus reads the first line of a decent summary of sources of information:
    http://www.aaii.com/investing/article/web-sites-for-closed-end-funds.pdf
    I stopped investing in equity CEFs when ETFs, particularly EM and country-specific funds, became available. I did subscribe to Herzfeld's service for a limited period and I found that even following the recommendations of a service required a lot of time and effort. Patrick Galley at RiverNorth Capital is also an expert on CEFs. He runs fund-of-funds and uses discount/premium arbitrage in the company's MFs.
  • CEF resources and recommendations
    The premiums are currently crazy on many CEFs, I put out some limit orders that I'll be shocked if fill on PDI and GOF. The thesis of the investment is more focused on income stream and yield than on capital appreciation.
    Good sites to peruse as I wait for premiums to return closer to average territory and learn more.
  • Investors Move To Cash, Anticipating Democratic Gains In U.S. Nov Elections
    FYI: The likelihood of a Democratic party takeover of at least one house of the U.S. Congress in the midterm elections in November is prompting some portfolio managers to move more money to cash and rotate away from sectors like financials and technology that could see greater regulatory scrutiny.
    Fund managers from Federated Investors, OppenheimerFunds, and BMO Global Asset Management are among those who are repositioning their portfolios and seeing cash as more attractive with the Nov. 6 elections less than 100 days away.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-weekahead/rpt-wall-st-week-ahead-investors-move-to-cash-anticipating-democratic-gains-in-u-s-nov-elections-idUSL1N1UT1NL
  • When to Cut & Run vs When to Double Down
    Hi @Old_Skeet, I totally agree with you that investing is both art and science, which I attribute to the science of using the past to help understand the likelihood of certain outcomes in an unpredictable future and then the art of choosing among various options not only based on how likely something is but also all the unquantifiable factors that influence your desired outcome.
    I don't have any problem with the idea that its worked out for this guy. I just think it doesn't work out that often for that many people. Just like we require ladder companies to warn everyone that you shouldn't put the ladder on ice when that's pretty obvious to most people, or we require McDonalds to warn people that their coffee is hot when most people don't really need that kind of warning, I thought the case was a lot more compelling than the ones I just mentioned that this author should have done a far better job warning his readers that he was advocating something that doesn't work for most people. Those who do get it right a couple times almost always discover the hard way that it was luck rather than skill, which is how I learned as the dot.com bubble burst.
    I made a lot of money during the frenzy buying and selling the volatility in semiconductor equipment stocks and I gave it all back because I didn't learn quick enough that my gains had nothing to do with skill. This guy knows that. He knows most people aren't qualified to make the judgments he's advocating and he might even know that a buyout offer 67% above the previous day's closing isn't about skill even if he recognized that it could be a possibility.
  • FMI Third Quarter Report
    @Derf all Long term. I'm not a day trader :-D
    I've ranted about WHEN vs WHAT when it comes to investing. I take profits regularly just like I take losses. I never carry a loss over to next year, so I will take some profit somewhere. I always pay capital gains taxes every year. I'm sure I'm not maximizing my profits on paper in the perfect la-la-land world of buying once, holding for 30 years and paying taxes once in your life. I'm happy with my real world situation regarding capital gains taxes.
  • FMI Third Quarter Report
    @VF Short term or long capital gain ? Just wonder. I'm a firm believer in different strokes for different folks.
    As for paying taxes my father said he didn't mind paying them as long as he had the money to pay !
    As for me I think the taxation has been out of hand for to many years !!
    Good investing to all,
    Derf
  • BP Capital Fund Advisors, LLC to reorganize two funds
    Here's the link to the filing involving the passing of the manager:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811030/000089418918003882/pmp_bpcap-497e.htm
    497 1 pmp_bpcap-497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
    BP capital TwinLine MLP Fund
    ("MLP Fund")
    Supplement dated July 24, 2018 to the Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information, each dated March 30, 2018, as supplemented
    The BP Capital TwinLine Funds regret to inform its shareholders that Anthony Riley, CFA, unexpectedly and tragically passed away on Saturday, July 21, 2018. The BP Capital TwinLine team is extremely saddened by the news, but is grateful for Anthony's hard work and contributions, and he will be greatly missed.
    Toby Loftin and Benton Cook, CFA will continue to serve as co-portfolio managers to the MLP Fund.
    Please retain this Supplement with the Prospectus.
  • Dividend Investing Going The Way Of The Dodo
    The latest tax proposal - to tax only inflation adjusted cap gains - is projected to give 97% of its benefit to the top 10% income earners (according to the Penn-Wharton Budget Model).
    https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-capital-gains-inflation-index-tax-cut-is-it-legal-2018-7
    This one looks even more lopsided than buybacks, because the only ones who benefit are those with securities in taxable accounts. The exposure to the stock market for middle class workers is primarily through retirement plans which get no benefit.
    (In IRAs and employer-sponsored plans, there's usually no cost basis to adjust for inflation, so retirement plan investments get nothing out of this proposal.)
  • Dividend Investing Going The Way Of The Dodo
    I couldn't do the research to prove it myself, but I do wonder if the share buy-backs haven't been yet another factor in shifting wealth away from wage earners in favor of high salaried and wealthy people. The latter are more likely to see their net worth increase with capital appreciation (due in part to the buy-backs), even if they are paper gains. As fewer and fewer workers are covered by pensions, and as existing pensions are threatened by under-funding, people at the lower end suffer more. Low interest rates have been sighted as a cause of pension stress, but workers currently contributing to pensions or those already retired suffer disproportionately to those whose wealth obviates the need for them to depend on a pension. Some stock-market wealth trickles down to pensioners, but these days these people are more likely to see benefit and pension cuts when great wealth is being created for the top of the heap.
  • Marsico Flexible Capital Fund reorganization
    It seems to stay in the family, at least in Denver. Doug Rao moved from Marsico to Janus where he's managing the VIT Forty and Forty funds. He made $ for me at Marsico Flexible Capital.
  • Marsico Flexible Capital Fund reorganization
    "Marsico funds are not doing well since Tom Marsico left Janus."
    That would be the entire lifetime of Marsico funds :-)
    Actually they did do well for some time. After ten years (end of 2007), MGRIX had averaged 9.18% and MFOCX had averaged 9.64%. In comparison, VIGRX had averaged 5.12% and its LCG benchmark had averaged 5.21%. (The other Marsico funds are younger.)
    Marsico Funds prospectus, Feb 2008 (w/2007 figures): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047112/000094822108000010/marsico_485bpos-020108.htm
    Vanguard Index Funds prospectus, April 2008 (w/2007 figures): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/36405/000093247108001124/indexfunds485bfiling4292008.txt
    The family had lots of problems after that, including debt and staff (management/analyst) turnover. From M* Oct 2012:
    As Marsico Capital Management struggled with poor performance, outflows, and its own debt-laden balance sheet, Flexible Capital's Doug Rao used the fund's wide-ranging strategy to good effect. ... Unfortunately,... In July 2012 Rao left the firm and the fund. It's now comanaged by Munish Malhotra, who has a short mixed record at other Marsico funds he's helped run, and Jordan Laycob, who hasn't led a fund before. Furthermore, there has been a lot of turnover among the firm's analysts and the fund's fees are high.
    http://srt.morningstar.com/newsp/cmsAcontent.html?t=LMVTX&resourceId=570104&src=Morningstar&date=10-11-2012
  • Seafarer Fund's Thoughts on China
    Thanks @Sven...great additional information on your personal journey with this manager.
    Upside Capture has struggled while his downside capture, while not great short term is better long term:
    image
    Hard to find funds that do both of these consistently well.
    2016 Study:
    Ability to Capture Up Market Gains and Avoid Down Market Losses: The Upside and Downside Capture Ratios
    The Upside and Downside Capture Ratios
    image
  • Marsico Flexible Capital Fund reorganization
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047112/000139834418010656/fp0034773_497.htm
    As previously communicated to shareholders in a supplement dated May 25, 2018, and an information statement/prospectus dated July 2, 2018, the reorganization of the Marsico Flexible Capital Fund (or “Acquired Fund”) with and into the Marsico Global Fund (or “Surviving Fund”) (the “Reorganization”) is expected to take place on or about August 3, 2018.
    Regarding the Flexible Capital Fund/Acquired Fund, on August 1, 2018, in anticipation of the Reorganization, the Flexible Capital Fund/Acquired Fund expects to make a distribution to its shareholders who are holders of record as of July 31, 2018, which will have the effect of distributing to its shareholders all of the Flexible Capital Fund’s/Acquired Fund’s investment company taxable income, if any, for the taxable period ending on or about August 3, 2018 (computed without regard to any deduction for dividends paid) and all of its net capital gains, if any, realized in the taxable period ending on or about August 3, 2018 (after reduction for any available capital loss carry forwards). Such distributions may be included in the taxable income of Flexible Capital Fund/Acquired Fund shareholders, depending on a shareholder’s tax status. Please refer to the Marsico Funds’ website for additional information concerning the distribution.
    Regarding the Global Fund/Surviving Fund, Marsico Capital Management, LLC (“MCM”), the Funds’ investment adviser, has entered into an expense limitation agreement with the Fund in which MCM has agreed to reduce the current contractual net expense cap for the Fund by 5 basis points from 1.50% to 1.45% upon the closing of the Reorganization at least through September 30, 2019...
  • Lazard US Realty Income Portfolio reorganization
    updated:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874964/000093041318002396/c91743_497.htm
    497 1 c91743_497.htm
    THE LAZARD FUNDS, INC.
    Lazard US Realty Income Portfolio
    Supplement to Current Summary Prospectus and Prospectus
    At a special meeting of shareholders held on July 27, 2018 (the “Meeting”), shareholders of Lazard US Realty Income Portfolio (the “Acquired Portfolio”), a series of The Lazard Funds, Inc. (the “Fund”), approved a Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”) with respect to the Acquired Portfolio and Lazard US Realty Equity Portfolio (the “Acquiring Portfolio”), also a series of the Fund. The Plan provides for the transfer of the Acquired Portfolio’s assets to the Acquiring Portfolio in a tax-free exchange for shares of the Acquiring Portfolio and the assumption by the Acquiring Portfolio of the Acquired Portfolio’s stated liabilities, the distribution of such shares of the Acquiring Portfolio to Acquired Portfolio shareholders and the subsequent termination of the Acquired Portfolio (the “Reorganization”).
    The Reorganization currently is anticipated to become effective on or about August 17, 2018 (the “Closing Date”). In anticipation of the Reorganization, effective March 2, 2018 (the “Sales Discontinuance Date”), the Acquired Portfolio was closed to any investments for new accounts, although shareholders of the Acquired Portfolio as of the Sales Discontinuance Date may continue to make additional purchases and to reinvest dividends and capital gains into their existing Acquired Portfolio accounts up until the Closing Date.
    A Prospectus/Proxy Statement with respect to the Reorganization was mailed to Acquired Portfolio shareholders as of March 29, 2018, the record date for voting at the Meeting. The Prospectus/Proxy Statement describes the Acquiring Portfolio and other matters relevant to the Reorganization. Acquired Portfolio shareholders may obtain a free copy of the Prospectus/Proxy Statement at www.lazardassetmanagement.com/docs/-m0-/67038/LazardUSRealtyIncomePortfolioProxyStatement.pdf or by calling (800) 823-6300.
    Dated: July 27, 2018