Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
This includes how Bill Miller considered the S&P 500 index. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/32935/on-beating-the-s-p-500-a-mutual-fund-manager-s-perspective#latest
In the linked article, I found that the graphs' red line must be the 50-day (simple) moving average. However, I did not find a definition of "buy range" or "buy zone," or what the graphs' blue line is.
LLJB, thanks for your interest. I think that you're quite right about the objectives of technical analysis. I don't use the ADX line, but do use the Elder Impulse System to plot prices, along with Bollinger Bands and moving averages, as well as the …
Thanks for your input, bee. As shown in the referenced StockCharts.com article, a downtrend line is conventionally drawn through a succession of lower highs.
Maurice, here is a StockCharts.com video with text about total return:http://stockcharts.com/articles/mailbag/2014/11/what-is-the-difference-between-adjusted-and-unadjusted-data.html?st=total+return
In the article, a linear scale is used to plot the monthly price of GLD. In my opinion, a logarithmic price scale should be used when drawing a trend line. In that case, it is less clear to me that the long-term trend line has been broken.
As I see SPY from mid-July through the close on 8/9:
- Closing daily prices have been in a trading range.
- Almost all of the Elder Impulse System price bars have been blue, neither a decisive green or red.
- The 10-day EMA has been in a weak uptre…
Skeet, I typically use 3 time frames, as does Alexander Elder in his Triple Screen Trading System. You can Google that and find a PDF ("IX Trading Systems"), which someone lifted from his book, "Trading for a Living."
Here is an expansion of myth "1. You can't time the market": https://realinvestmentadvice.com/you-cant-time-the-market/
I tried to guess what moving average(s) were used in the chart of the S&P 500, but it's not clear to me if one or two moving…
Edmond, here's a longer interview with Bob Rodriguez: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2017/06/27/bob-rodriguez-we-are-witnessing-the-development-of-a-perfect-storm
Thanks, Skeet, but I don't think that MFOers have that much interest in technical analysis. I'll think about adding something to the July Month-End Update posting, however.
Tell him to use the strategy described here:
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2013/06/timing-method-performance-over-ten-decades/
"Employing the 10-month simple moving average timing method (10-mo SMA) to these data over ten decades reveals impres…
I think that an advantage of PRGTX (which I own) over the other TRP funds in its category is that the large majority of them have this notation: "Redemption Fee: 2% (90 days or less)."
VF, I get my data from StockCharts.com. I make my decisions based primarily on weekly charts. I think that you have to find your own chart time frames and indicators/overlays (and their parameters) that you are comfortable with. A moving average tha…
VintageFreak, I already have VWIGX (foreign large growth, per M*) and I would be buying VINEX (foreign small/mid blend) to replace OAKIX (foreign large blend). I think that VINEX would be a good diversifier and complement to VWIGX. Also, I like its …
MJG, when you say "I make such partial adjustments." isn't that market timing? And when you say "Consequently I always suffer a loss in a Bear, but typically not as much as the market itself experiences." doesn't that show that market timing works, …
Neither in this article nor the interview http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/08/buffett-called-me-a-hero-but-im-just-a-guy-who-gave-a-damn-about-investors-says-jack-bogle.html do I see where the explanation is provided.
The article would make sense t…
Catch, to get an accurate answer, you cannot just add, subtract, or multiply percentages. You have to convert them to factors, multiply them together, and convert the result back to a percentage.
Also, multiplying 2 x 4.5%, adding 1 x 5.5%, and div…
jaba, my favorite international funds are OAKIX and VWIGX. The links below should help answer your question.
http://www.oakmark.com/Oakmark-files/fact-sheets/OAKIXFundFactSheet.pdf
https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/investments/p…
Catch, I have a couple suggestions for calculating the break even return. First, the minimum annual return in dollars is: $20,000 x .045 + $35000 x .055 = $2825. Then the return is $2825/$55,000 = .0514 or 5.14%. Then if you say what return factor, …
slick, I tried to see how to duplicate your 30% profit in ITA, but 21.7% is the best I could do, by buying at the lowest daily closing price during last November and selling at the highest daily closing price so far this month.
I found that my premise was off. VIGRX (VIVAX) tracks the CRSP US Large Cap Growth (Value) Index, not the S&P 500 Growth (Value) Index. Vanguard does have ETFs and institutional mutual funds that track the S&P 500 Growth and Value indexes, h…
VF, it seems to me that if you have a 50-50 mix of VIVAX and VIGRX, your results would be about the same as 100% in VFINX. I just looked a the 3-month total returns of VIVAX, VFINX, and VIGRX. They are 0.88%, 3.73%, and 6.85%, respectively. This isn…
