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So now I see, it's all about color and race, how convient...mmm...several of the poor uneducated immigrants that lived near me were from Nigeria and the Caribbeans and they are doing as well. Nice try but it doesn't work on me ;-)
BTW, in my high…
@FD1000 Your story doesn't disprove my statement that you're out of touch with the financial realities of most Americans but highlights it. You've had a good education, came here in your mid-30s, after being educated most likely, and I suspect paren…
It is so sad to see a candidate like Biden with health issues. I wouldn't let him manage a small business with 10 employees. Why his family and friends don't tell him the truth?
And then there is Trump, regardless of what you think he will be el…
From wiki(link)
John Peter Hussman (born 15 October 1962) is an American stock market analyst and hedge fund owner. From 1992 to 1998, Hussman was Professor of Economics and International Finance at the University of Michigan.[2][3] In 1998–2000, H…
@FD1000 You are completely divorced from what the financial realities are for most Americans.
I actually know a lot about what is going on. I started working at age 13 in the summer and then every week for several hours in high school and saved mo…
The stock market? you either be an entrepreneur and take the risk of failing or become a millionaire or select the easier choice and own stocks and become a millionaire. I selected the second choice :-)
@FD1000 - Your choice is not easier for m…
Worth reading: https://nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/26/magazine/stock-market-coronavirus-pandemic.html
The last paragraph says "Perhaps one lesson this crisis can reinforce is that we should stop thinking of the stock market as a barometer of nat…
Sorry, Jeremy Grantham was wrong so many times since 2010 that it's not even funny but sad.
He predicted at the end of 2010 that US stocks will lag EM but he also was way, way off about several categories performance.
Example: he said that US will …
Never, ever do anything based on predictions. Below are several predictions by "experts".
1) Interest rates can only go up by many "experts".
2) The 10 year treasury rate will be at 6% (link) by Gundluch, the bond "king".
3) EM stocks must outpe…
@FD100
you may have told us before but how do you avoid redemption fees on some of these funds?
Congratulations on establishing your system that seems to work almost all the time. How much work does it take to evaluate incoming data daily or hourl…
As I said several times before I don't follow any of these but my own rules which I started years ago preparing for retirement. Since 2018 I practiced stricter rules 1) 6+% average annually 2) SD under 3 3) never lose 3% from any last top 4) com…
Rising glidepath has a big advantage of not losing as much in the first critical years. So, even if all 3 (rising, declining, stagnant) glidepaths are similar I still prefer to start with a lower % in stocks.
Reliable Clements has some thoughts:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/
From the article and then my comments
1) Abandon bonds = Rediculous idea. I have talked to many retirees and they don't want the high volatility that stocks offe…
yup. Just saw that. We all know that the metrics for measuring unemployment has been massaged for a very long time (per @rono.) Yet the miraculous upswing in the latest numbers are risible. As much as we didn't trust previous unemployment reports, …
(Cue the Forrest Gump impersonation:) Some here might remember the saga: we wanted to move wifey's 403b at a former employer and just convert it to a Trad IRA with VLAAX. It took them 3 months to even acknowledge that we exist (by mail) to tell us …
OMG, the lib media is in shock, they expected at least 7 million job losses and they got +2.5 million gain. The 2.5 million came without help from NY+CA which are still shut down.
It's terrible for them but good for America.
Then came their usual,…
@FD1000: "...D&C is [one of the worst managers of all time]...". Oh my goodness. Really; what does one do with that?
I meant to say below average. EXample: DODGX trail the "stupid" index SPY for performance + risk attributes. See the (proof…
From the same source, stockchart, I think this(link) maybe be easier but only allows 5 funds. The easy part is by letting you select the period easily. You have one month and all the way using start/end dates.
The best IMO is PortfolioVis. It has…
Giroux is one of the best managers of all time.
Dodge & Cox just the opposite.
PRWCX is why you want to own managed funds. A flexible and correct approach for years. In most cases for most investors just use stocks indexes + managed bond fun…
1) my favorite 3 bond categories. Multisector, NonTrad, HY Muni. Since 2019 I also use HY Munis in my IRA, it's unusual but I look at risk/reward, and this category given me good results. Schwab let you buy these funds in IRA (after you acknowledge…
Thanks for sharing. Just wondering why you would commit so much to ANBEX. For two of its first three years of existence it was middling at best. This year it went crazy good, but how could you know that enough in advance to capture the gain? I a…
Every post you make FD is all about you. "I saw this. I did that. Every one else is dumb for missing it." The point is the likelihood of anyone 'investing" in this fund, not trading, would not have seen a 40% drop in 2 days on the horizon.
Yes, to…
The basics are still the same: Know what you own, expect the worse(which is what I do) and past performance and volatility are not guaranteed.
I call BS on that advice FD. None of what you said is usable. This was a fund with good consistent return…
The basics are still the same: Know what you own, expect the worse(which is what I do) and past performance and volatility are not guaranteed.
When a black swan shows up most categories don't work except treasuries and the only way to avoid the mel…
Up little bit in may..will trend continue next month,
I have no idea what trend will do but I know how to join the trend and jump off it and why over 50% of my portfolio is in HY munis for several weeks. HY munis did fantastic in May and severa…
GMO has been wrong for 10 years already. I posted about them for years. Their forecast for US stocks were off significantly, they prefered EM stocks which lagged by a lot too.
I kept GMO forecast fro 2010, see the (link)
Since 2008-9 and massive i…
Analysis at the end, after the performance.
Performance......One month...YTD as of 5/29/2020
Multi
PDIIX…3.1....-2.35
PUCZX…3.8…-3.7
JMUTX....4.0....-5.1
TSIIX.....3.1….-0.1
PTIAX….1.9….-0.2
Multi(high % securitized)
PIMIX.....2.3….-3.4
EIXIX…..3.…
@catch22: I don't recall seeing any daily/weekly trade(s) conformation here as to what is stated by @FD1000 for his account(s) returns.
You don't have to believe anything I say. The chance I will post all/any of my trades are slim. The following a…
I would never invest in a fund that I can't sell everything at any day.
Pimco https://www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/interval/flexible-credit-income-fund/inst performance isn't impressive at all at 0.37% annually for 3 years.
Do you folks think this is a new fierce-bull market rally or just a W recovery in hiding, will DOWS JONES reach 15k by end of summer, or 26.3k???
I know exactly what will happen. The Dow will reach 26123 next week. Then, it will go to 24652 a week l…
I posted about it several times, many investors think that the stock market is a reflection of the economy but it's not.
The market looks ahead and compare to what we have seen in the last several weeks, there is a good chance it will be better in 6…
it's at http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns
But, none of the links work. I tried 5-6 of them.
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Fidelity let you use their fund screener for free, see it (here)
I have discussed D&C inferior risk/reward. I would not select any of their funds.
Why would I look what DODGX did since the bottom?
YTD...VFIAX(SP500) is at -7.8% while DODGX is at -20.2%
One year...VFIAX 5.5%...DODGX-10.9%
3 year........VFIA…
- @JohnN - May I suggest calling it “The Trump Bear Market”?
How convenient to blame Trump. I don't remember you cheered Trump with the lowest unemployment in decades (the usual TDS)...but don't worry, you will get him for 4 more years.
I went to all cash before the crash when I was up several %. Then, for about 5 weeks I traded successfully several times stocks and CEFs and then was back to be invested at 99+% in bond OEFs. I find myself trading my bond more than usual because the…
