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@BT2020:But go ahead and keep pushing highly leveraged and/or non-liquid funds...
So what's next?
Are you going to start pushing 2x and 3x leveraged funds like Profunds & Direxion too?
BT maybe a previous poster by another name(BigTom)? Why not …
The April 2020 quarterly newsletter describes the SVARX active management approach over the preceding two years. The chart provides a good visual description. Scroll down to the Active Management section of the newsletter. (Reviewing the 12/31/19…
BT2020: What FD is missing here is the leverage is HIGHER now then earlier in the year.
With HIGHER leverage and the corresponding INCREASE in treasury rates, interest costs and the associated risk for the leverage has increased then earlier in th…
Don’t forget the most important part of the fund.
The 49% leverage and the huge position in swaps.
With the recent spike in the 10 year and if the rise in interest rates continues, the higher borrowing costs will be detrimental to this funds huge po…
I held FAIRX with 2 other funds (OAKBX,SGENX) for about 8-9 years from 2000 to 2010. I held FAIRX for about 8 years and OAKBX,SGENX about 9 years. It's part of my system of finding good risk/reward funds until they don't keep up and sell them.
Simi…
LewisBraham, it's pretty funny to read your comments. Your conclusions are so one-sided, GOP are all bad, Dems are good. Obama foreign policy was a disaster and a direct cause to ISIS, he couldn't even handle ISIS until Trump did.
When I say "The …
Any war follows by many sad stories. Let's think what would be the reverse. Muslim win, Israel lose. How about killing thousands, raping women, taking over everything...basically hell. They have done it to Christians, Jews and other Muslims too. …
The usual, no response to any of my questions. No response to the evil in the Middle East.
Let me guess, you know if one day you visit one of these Muslims countries, it may be very inconvenient for you.
All I did was post about a good thing of a …
Well LewisBraham, Israel is the only county that will accept Jews when things will get really bad. We already have a proof of what happened to Jews in the last 2 thousand years. It happened again in France several years back and thousands immigrat…
I "love" opinions from people that never lived in the Middle East and don't understand the nuances, especially Americans who live in a huge country and so far from the enemy while Israel is a tiny country with just several millions surrounded by a b…
DIAL looks to me as a pretty good option:
1) ER=0.28% is cheap for Multi sector bond. PIMIX ER=1.09%(I know, it includes borrowings and repurchase agreements but still it's expenses)
2) Risk/reward looks good. I used MFO data for 3 years, Multi se…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/irs-bitcoin-and-virtual-currency-tax-form-193503386.html
I own zero "crypto " currency, do you ?
Stay Safe, Derf
I don't think it's a problem if you do it…
Old_Joe,
You conveniently forget what came first and how it started. Israel was founded in 1948, who started the war and the next one? Who wants to kill all the Jews(and Christians too) and still say it?
The Palestinians and the settlers is and wi…
...And, as ever, in all of those Mideast/Gulf deals, the Palestinians have been forsaken, thrown under the bus. Their own leadership needs to get their shit together. But the Israeli occupation and continued settlement is an abomination, after all t…
Raq, you can't possibly say anything, even a bit, of criticism of any Dem agenda no matter what, even if you are one of them ;-) I love it.
There is only one good doable solution NUCLEAR.
Arnott isn't the only one who was wrong for years
1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.
2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.
3) Gundlach was way wrong whe…
Hi Lynn, great article.
I have been using great risk reward funds since 2000 but in the last several years and especially since retirement I just sell to cash when I see extreme market conditions. It's the only sure way to protect my portfolio. Wh…
Does M* calculate fund metrics (for example risk and volatility measures or value and growth measures) themselves or is data provided by a third party?
M* site shows you several risk metrics see (this) or the old site was easier where you can comp…
I use mainly the new M* chart and only use the old for links because I can do more with the new charts. The old charts don't work if you want to see more than one newer funds + older funds. Try to see PIMIX+MWFSX+EIXIX on the same chart. You can sta…
FD:"My calculation for peak to trough...VCFIX -19.7% from M* new charts found (here) from 2/25 (10000) to 3/25 (8027.67). Stockchart gives me -19.85% for VCFAX(link)"
I used the performance chart system that Yogi sent out via email some time ago. …
My calculation for peak to trough...VCFIX -19.7% from M* new charts found (here) from 2/25 (10000) to 3/25 (8027.67). Stockchart gives me -19.85% for VCFAX(link)
I agree with you that if you are looking for a securitized bond fund VCFIX is a good o…
dtconroe.
I'm OK with VCFIX but the meltdown of over 18% was too much, even PIMIX was down less than that around 11%. I don't put a lot of faith in Schwab bond selections. I think Fidelity is better and free to all investors even if you are not a c…
wxman123,
PIMIX is still a good fund but when I owned it I like the way it was. Since PIMIX is so huge the managers had to compromise and own more HY + EM + lower the distributions and still behind. PIMIX ranked at 78 in category in 2019 and 52 in …
10 years is too long. PIMIX was great until 01/2018 but its AUM got much bigger than 5-6 years ago, the managers had to look outside their best ideas in securitized and now more HY and EM and the yield is now at 4%.
For mostly special securitized a…
I agree that BASIX is pretty good, MNCPX looks better when you look at performance + SD.
Schwab have 2 recommended Multi funds JMSIX,VCFIX and I think they are not as good the others on my list. TSIIX is clearly better as a generic fund. PTIAX i…
+2.
Valuations, PE, PE10, inverted yield, the economy, deficit, "experts" predictions and even earnings do not have a high correlation to what stocks may do for months and sometimes years to come.
"PCI(CEF): 8.5%. YTD still at -10.1%"
To be fair, though, this is, I think, just price. It additionally picked up probably 8.5-9% in dividends.
Only price matters and the one you can trade with. NAV is a good way to assess other stuff. My numb…
Observations for one month as of 11/27/2020:
November was a great month for stocks and bond and interest rates were up. There were so many good performance monthly funds it was difficult to select just several.
Multi: Several did 2-3%.
Uncontrai…
Unfortunately long term performance was off since 2010. The SP500 did better than the rest (SC=IWM, GLD, international=FSPSX, EM=EEM and REIT=VNQ) + had lower volatility and why I don't pay attention to historical returns and I'm never over diversif…
Maybe the following 1 and 3 years performance charts of SPY,AAPL,QQQ,BRK/A,JPM will convince you that Apple IS NOT another "blend—a blue chip stock ". If they don't I give up.
I wouldn't compare BRK.A to anything else. Nothing typical about it.
Apple P/E = 35.6 (link)
Apple earning are so huge and why it has so much cash and it's harder to show growth but it still shows it and why it's amazing.
I don't think that apple is…
RE(real estate) is crazy right now but just like any other ones will get back to earth in 1 (maybe 2 years). Rates may go higher, RE prices already moved a lot, many people have saved more during 2020, the pandemic will be over and most things will…
MSF, a lot of spinning but Apple is a growth company compared to SPY.
Apple has lower yield, higher PE, higher growth.
Sure, compare to QQQ it's a value.
Apple looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck …
"“This is a great example of how aggregate numbers can hide important facts,” Colas writes."
Nope, we have seen it several times before. Stock short term moves (months and sometimes even years) don't have a high correlation to..............PE, PE1…
Both funds are in mostly securitized.
IOFIX(link): concenrated mostly (over 78%) in legacy RMBS.
JASVX(link): 2 of the managers came from Semper (SEMMX) but as you stated JASVX held pretty well while IOFIX+SEMMX lost a lot more in 03/2020. This f…
Warren is smart because
1) He finally invested in a growth, "over valued" for his style high tech company, Apple, after he said for years he woudn't and now it is his biggest holding.
2) SPY/VOO is an easy, dirt cheap index
