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Good post. The longer you check, and I'm talking about at least 20-30 years, a cheap index such as the SP500 beats most stock funds.
The SP500 is based on the best indicator, the price. The price never lies, regardless of any opinion.
The SP500 is g…
Good post. The longer you check, and I'm talking about at least 20-30 years, a cheap index such as the SP500 beats most stock funds.
The SP500 is based on the best indicator, the price. The price never lies, regardless of any opinion.
The SP500 is g…
The power of compounding is huge. Let's assume 10% return per year. Investor X started investing at age 25 $1000 monthly and stopped after 10 years. Investor Y started investing 10 years later, at age 35, investing $1000 monthly for 30 years to age…
@FD1000 Sure, and while we're at it, why don't we get corporate money, lobbying and influence out of politics altogether: https://washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/31/business-lobbying-democrats-reconciliation/
Oh, wait.
ding. ring that bell.
Tr…
Aside from the fact that Zero Hedge remains a Russian propaganda outlet, why would an investor give more credence to the trading activity of the spouse of a politician than the trading activity of executives who actually run these companies and sure…
As I said before, I read many articles that claimed you can't do it. I have been using my system over 20 years. Well, if you don't care, you don't. Over the years, I have learned a few techniques on several boards + my own interpretation.
As I said…
First, getting out isn't momentum.
Second, I have heard so many times, you can't time the market. When I was an accumulator, I didn't care. When I got older, and had a lot more, I learned how to do it. Since 2018, retirement, I was out to MM with a …
I don't base my investing on outlooks or prediction, it's based on big picture + several indicators (link). Both signaled high risk months ago and why I'm in MM since then with only short term trades if the charts support it. It's not the first ti…
He is late for several months. Dimon isn't a good market predictor.
Months ago, my risk criteria was very elevated, I sold it all to cash (similar to Q4/2018 + 03/2020). I only trade every several weeks when I find a perfect set up and only for hou…
FD1000
+1
Is the Schmeissing just getting started?
Inquiring minds want to know...
I have a special style. You can see it (here). Since 2013, I have been practicing sell to cash at certain conditions (proprietary). Since retirement in 2018, my s…
OK, we're very impressed. You can go away now.
As a trader, I'm out for weeks(only use short term trades) and looking to park my money somewhere until I find better opportunities. Let me know where can I park $100K now?
As expected, the only bond c…
My usual problem, where can I buy I-bond at 1 million Dollar + be able to cash out within 6-12 months and buy something else?
This is why I never bought directly.
I wish there was an ETF/OEF that pays half of I-bonds with more flexibility and much …
Following discussion with much interest. It occurs to me that while Grantham may or may not be 100% “correct”, his views can be included as part of one’s ongoing thought process and help us arrive at intelligent decisions. Had a wonderful college …
Several past posts:
1) "MSF describes it—blend—a blue chip stock with its heady growth days in the past.
"Agree with msf and Lewis assessment. The fast growing business (iPhones, computers, music, and AppleTV) since Steve Jobs's returned has platea…
Let it go down, please. The more, the better...for me.
What I find funny is when someone "knows" the reason why it went down. So many predictions by so many "experts" have been wrong(link).
So why did stocks go down? The only true reason is because …
Derf, I don't post anywhere what I own or trade, sorry.
Generally, I own, in the last several years, only 2-3 funds. See (link).
Today I was down just -0.02%(it's the correct figure).
Let it go down, please. The more, the better...for me.
What I find funny is when someone "knows" the reason why it went down. So many predictions by so many "experts" have been wrong(link).
So why did stocks go down? The only true reason is because …
Love "experts" predictions, see (link)
Example: In 05/2012 (article)
Question:You have become famous for your cyclically adjusted 10-year price/earnings ratio. What do the latest numbers say about future stock market returns?
Shiller: we found a …
That said, if it were me deciding between the two, all performance metrics I usually review would point me to selecting PQTAX over AHLPX. Volatility is not as an important a metric to me as I subscribe to the axiom of a venerable, former M* who r…
TMSRX had a decent 2019-20 and terrible 2021 and why you need to trade these funds. I pretty much gave up on alternative funds. Their performance is uneven and unreliable over the years.
Unfortunately, Grantham has been wrong for over 10 years. But he is not alone, Arnott (PAUIX) and Hussman were too.
See one source(link)
He was so off on US LC(SP500) and EM stocks.
I think most investors should disregard it and most other "expert" opinions. Most should know their goals and risk tolerance and invest accordingly with min trading based on that. Most should stick to stocks+bonds and if you want to go crazy use 10…
The above is a 7 year forecast by GMO from 12/31/2010. I have posted right after the above prediction that GMO would be very wrong about US LC(SPY), and they were hugely wrong. I haven't changed my mind about GMO. I said the same about Arnott (…
I think it's pretty "easy". If you believe in Schwab view, then CLMAX will be a good choice.
In the last 4 + 12 weeks, CLMAX ranks at 94+72 and lagging badly with 0% + 0.9%.
CLMAX has a good record in the riskier specialized securitized when you…
Would it be an over simplification to say that you own bond funds if you are afraid that you might panic and sell if there is an equity crash? Is that the primary reason? The market watch article says you own bond funds for safety and not return.
…
RPIDX: another 0.4% today and 7.7% for YTD.
I don't worry about market crashes, I sell, so, bring it on, the faster and deeper is better because the recovery will be much better too ;-)
As someone who invest all hid money in bond OEFs and trade stock/CEFs only a few times annually.
PIMIX/PONAX: I sold on 01/2018 and never looked back.
What had been looking good YTD without revealing my own funds:
RPIDX: The manager used to work at…
I look at the size but as long as the fund performing well according to my strict criteria I hold it. PIMIX was great until 2018, I sold it in 01/2018. PRWCX is still a great fund which I don't own. Of course indexes don't count.
@Crash, yes and no. Someone can do pretty well with minimal changes. I held PIMIX about 7-8 years. I held one HY Muni for 3 years. In the last several years I invested mostly in HY Munis + special securitized bond within Multi/NonTrad.
So, I babysi…
My usual comments:
Not all bonds are higher-rated bonds. Bonds have several unique categories with different ballast, volatility and market conditions.
Treasuries are a great ballast but terrible in rising rates. Bank loans are much better in risi…
The results depend on several assumptions you can't accurately predict and why my wife and I will start taking our SS at age 65. Why 65?
1) It's between 62 and 70.
2) It's convenient for paying Medicare + taxes.
3) If you are retired and needs to …
LB,
Can you explain why Obama got the Nobel Prize for peace?
- Withdrew US troops and joked about ISIS, enabling the partial takeover of Syria and Iraq by Islamist radicals, with immeasurable consequences such as millions of refugees into Europe.
- …
