Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The results depend on several assumptions you can't accurately predict and why my wife and I will start taking our SS at age 65. Why 65?
1) It's between 62 and 70.
2) It's convenient for paying Medicare + taxes.
3) If you are retired and needs to …
LB,
Can you explain why Obama got the Nobel Prize for peace?
- Withdrew US troops and joked about ISIS, enabling the partial takeover of Syria and Iraq by Islamist radicals, with immeasurable consequences such as millions of refugees into Europe.
- …
It's sad to see how his political biased clouded his judgment in 2016. Do you care to comment about that?
I was able to read the article. I agree with Krugman, he basically says what I posted above.
I can't read the article but if Krugman said that inflation is going to be way up, he will be wrong and not the first time, see (2016). I'm amazed he got the Nobel Memorial Prize.
Let's talk inflation:
The ANNUAL inflation may get to 3-4% in the n…
I'm with Fidelity and Schwab for years. I never waited at Schwab more than 1-2 minutes and many times the reps work from home.
In the last 2-3 years, I waited several times at least 20-30 minutes at Fidelity and then they transferred me again to t…
I haven’t read everything above but I say cash is form of bonds. When I started investing in 1982 cash reserve funds were the high flyers. Of course conditions then were much different than they are now but still, cash reserves are ultra short bond…
I don't see what is the complaint about. The Fed rather be late a bit then make preemptive measures which may not happen. Sometimes, just the Fed narrative can change market opinion/anticipation without doing anything.
There is no way to forecast t…
@CRASH AND @BASEBALL FAN -My question is specifically for diversification
of funds outside of the US .Currently full positions of US Bond funds and Muni's,
and wanting to put some cash to work .Per the NYT article -I am interested in the foreign …
The usual boring statement, KISS for most: know your goals and risk tolerance, select asset allocation accordingly, make minimal changes, stay the course, stay invested.
Emergency fund: after your savings pass a certain amount (for us $50K+) we no…
FD1000 can write 10 words and I can make a fortune.
Sounds like you 2 should get your own (chat) room.
Sounds like you can't face reality. If you are interested in making money while achieving great risk-adjusted performance pay attention.
Nobo…
FD1000 can write 10 words and I can make a fortune.
Sounds like you 2 should get your own (chat) room.
Sounds like you can't face reality. If you are interested in making money while achieving great risk-adjusted performance pay attention.
Anybody who is in the prediction business must be wrong.
Here are a list of
some famous "experts" Bogle, GMO, Arnott, Gundlach, Shiller
Others, PE, PE10=CAPE, inverted yield, overvalue, the sky is falling every other week.
KISS for most: know your…
fd1k, again, you really should do this for a living for others and not bother poasting
Why would I bother working? After you have enough, why have a schedule, customers and bosses.
My grandson says "grandpa is retired, he plays all day"...he nail…
Sure, stillers(=alb..) the usual, your posts are out of context.
Do I invest based on duration? I sure do post lots of info with my monthly info but my style for years is still based mainly on momentum + smoother ride.
But I also post generic answ…
msf: "In short, you're conflating fund "purity" with fund type. There's little special about treasuries, and nothing that you've identified."
wow, I'm "impressed".
I have done the following a few times. I looked at treasuries rate changes when it w…
msf, nice try. I never said :In comparison, duration is inaccurate with any other type of bond".
I sais "Many/Most bond funds have several bond categories that behave differently, some use derivatives which complicate things even more. Managed fun…
3 examples:
Let me know how you can predict PIMIX movements based on its duration.
DODIX is simpler, but the managers can still change within category. Imagine they reduce treasuries % and raised Corp.
Even a simple fund such as VBTLX wouldn't be…
Duration is a lot more accurate with treasuries. Many/Most bond funds have several bond categories that behave differently, some use derivatives which complicate things even more. Managed funds can also change their bond mix which affect performance…
I follow this rule over 20 years and I have done great. I never invest based on prediction or pat attention to them, I invest based on what happened lately, and it never disappointed me. The market tells me what works and what doesn't and why I men…
I have read so many inflation/rate scary stories in the last several weeks. Let me know when inflation is high (over 3%) for several months.
Inflation will be higher in the next 2-4 months on annual basis because they compare it to the same month …
This gets regurgitated multiple times a year....must be whenever there is excess “volatility” (which of course is “bad” when it’s to the downside, right?)....doesn’t make it any less true, and maybe that’s why it needs to be repeated ad nauseum?
I s…
Every time I see a new thread about bonds I smile. Yes, I'm the exception and have done it for years. I retired in 2018, we need only 4% (maybe less) including inflation to keep our living standard for the next several decades. I still want to mak…
Is there a Bond Fund that Shorts Bonds? I know a bond fund that is up several % year to date + partially doing short + have a nice 3 years returns.
why-world-would-you-own-bonds-ray-dalio? Because many retires that have enough don't want to have t…
Short-Duration HY Munis Remain Attractive Options For Rising Rates
Summary
- Rising rates remain top-of-mind for income investors due to their ability to deliver portfolio losses.
- The short-duration high-yield tax-exempt municipal sector remain…
MWFSX performance continues to lag and relates to lower daily distributions.
Its performance for 1-4-12 weeks per M* Multi category is 85-97-88. Basically, it's in the bottom 15%-3%-12%.
The last several distributions are:
As of Date Ticker Dividen…
Perspective. Rates are up a lot YTD(year-to-date) and...
VFIAX (=SP500)...YTD=2.6%...1 year=29.3%...3 year=14.3%
It's pretty known for months already that value is finally doing better. YTD SCHD=9.4%
The usual, the stock market fluctuates, the r…
I have owned IOFIX for several years but also traded it several times at Fidelity and Schwab. I checked my 1099-DIV for 2018,2019 Nondividend Distributions and they were at zero. To tell you the truth, I really don't care, I just copy all these num…
I "love" Grantham/GMO predictions
12/31/2020 (link) 7 year prediction were: US LC will make 0.4% + 2.5% = 2.9% annually. EM will make 4.1%+2.5% inflation=6.6%. The real results(link) show SPY=13.65 annually EEM=1.9% annually
2012(link): "Jeremy …
If you are a trader like me and watch momentum you switch. I held PIMIX for about 7 years. I also watch very high risk and why I sold prior to the meltdown last March(link) and bought after it.
It's also pretty obvious from my table above that PIMIX…
I said several times in the past, PIMIX was a great fund until 01/2018 when I sold it after holding for several years. Since 01/2018 it's still a good fund but performance ranks only at the top 44% according to M*.
Past performance is important bu…
Also, @FD1000 might better explain SVARX (ER around 3%).
This is mainly a fund of funds. In their top 5 holdings they have IOFIX+BDKNX both expense ratio about 1.5%. Then they use leverage, and they still want to make money.
The only explanation tha…
GMO should hide in the closet. Their predictions since 2010 are so off the mark. In 12/31/2010, they predicted that US LC would make 2.9%, the SP500 made over 14% in the next 7 years. They said that EM would be better and they trail by a huge marg…
PRWCX is one of the best risk/reward moderate allocation funds in the last 5-10-20 years.
VWIAX is one of the best risk/reward conservative allocation funds in the last 5-10-20 years.
PIMIX is one of the best Multi sector bond funds 2008-2018.
So,…
The VIX shot up to over 37 yesterday but today it was back to under 30. That's why I'm not a robot and did nothing. VIX is only one main thing I'm looking at, I also look at the big picture and try to understand why/what.
The people who buy when VI…
I would like to know how I can find out how much leverage is used in a fund. I use the Schwab platform. Tkx!
It's being delved into here:
https://armchairinvesting.freeforums.net/thread/733/introducing-svarx
The above will not show you how much a…
FD takes EVERYTHING personally. I just pointed out the FACTS about his posts on this topic.
He "Introduced" this fund to the world (sic) on two forums recently BUT had to be informed by other posters that it was highly leveraged. Read this ful…
Same posters, same distractions for years, nothing new. Expect it to continue.
BT2020 or BigTom have been following my posts for years over 3 different sites where he tries to find anything(even one word) wrong and/or one number out of order and cl…
