Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I don't think most people comprehend what we are up against.
1) How bad Covid can get. All these statements about "it only affects old people" ignore the fact that for example, here in CT the urban and suburban hospitals have been decimated. Not…
None of this adds in what will happen to evictions and the mortgage industry. Airlines are working hard to come up with ways to demonstrate you can fly a full plane without covid but why will people believe them. No one I know wants to stay in a ho…
I think a second significant peak is inevitable and this equity bounce will crash. The behavior of people last weekend is clear evidence that most covididiots will get infected and soon. There are already rising case and hospitalization rates in ma…
USAA is great for insurance. In the past they were one of the few brokerage or mutual fund companies that would allow investments as low as $50. I set up my kids accounts there. But now they have little advantage over most others
I have been in and now out of Longleaf funds for decades. I finally gave up. While their reports are wonderfully detailed, and they make compelling arguments for all of their positions, the market seldom agrees.
I think they make some disastrous m…
The French Scientist Rioult, who published the original HCQ is on record as saying it does not matter how you design the study because he knows HCQ works.
This is contrary to every single shred of data on clinical trials in medicine since the 1…
This is just another example of his outrageous narcissism. Any other President would say and do things that he wanted public to accept and believe, but to Trump it is all about him.
Consequently, he certainly did panic with the positive cases and …
Good discussion of how influenza and Covid deaths are counted. You have to use the same marker. Influenza deaths are usually calculated from "excess pneumonia/respiratory deaths" ( Actual deaths with positive flu swab much less) vs covid deaths in…
@Old_Joe
I agree completely. I think this is not going to be a "V" shaped recovery; It may not even be "U" shaped, but more "L" with a long tail.
All it will take to close movie theaters again is a couple of cases linked to a local theater. Same …
VWINX is a fine one stop fund for income and some capital gains. It is paying only a little more than a core bond fund but subject to more equity risk. IT lost 8% in the recent crash.
@msf
Thanks for the detailed explanation. I am recently retired and purposely reduced equity exposure before Covid as I was concerned about a 30 to 50% drop in my retirement accounts immediately if something like this came along. I guess I lucked …
Gee there really is a MASKX
Who would have known?
On a sadder note, my sister in the Texas Hill country says people are yelling at her for wearing a mask and she is avoiding certain grocery stores because of the hostile reaction she has had from…
@msf
Thanks for the info. I am unsure if you are sitting 100% in your CDs. If so how will you decide to move money anywhere else?
Keeping enough cash to live on for some period of time gives you the opportunity to take some risk with the rest. How…
@Bitzer SCPZX is one of the funds that did well this year esp in March, but M* is leery
"But such wins depend on precise timing, and mistakes can sting. The strategy slashed its 40% agency mortgage-backed securities stake to 4% in late 2008 and …
If there is ever a time for active management of a bond fund, I think this is it. VFDIX and BND follow an index and as M* says of VFDIX
"The portfolio relies on the market's collective wisdom and does not attempt to avoid bad credit risks or identi…
I think it is difficult to be invested in a bond fund that is supposed to be "ballast" to your equities and then see it drop 13%
A "Core " Bond fund IMHO should diversify and provide some income but not reach for yield, etc. With treasury yields …
Several attorneys both Rep and Demo have files a complaint with the election commission stating the obvious. This is a violation of the Hatch ACT
LOCK HIM UP !!!
I will check it out, but for most of my medical career we always thought the Lancet was a second tier journal because they did not require peer review. It was the editor's decision as to what to publish. He probably asked some experts to avoid bein…
Yep
The only question is will we have robust testing and contact tracing up and running when it comes back.
I strongly recommend Tomas Pueyo series for common sense and solid recommendations.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do…
I think that Trump's fake news statements about Covid, Hydroxychloroquine and all the rest are close to criminal and have killed people, and he and his administration are responsible for the inept and negligent US response to the virus, but I do not…
Massachusetts data
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-20-2020/download
22% of 18000 statewide beds in ICU or 3900 beds. 63% of ICU beds are avaliable. The covid19.healthdata.org site site says 964 beds needed.
I emailed them but…
@LewisBraham
I looked into this site's data on Connecticutt. I dont know where they got the numbers on resources but they are inaccurate low and misleading.
The estimates of ICU beds for example are inaccurate, and probably are just pulled from hi…
I assume that the studies will have enough patients in them so eventually we will have lots of data on effectiveness on patients in hospital. I do not know what egibility criteria they are using to add a patient to the study; presumably on assisted …
I think whatever happens if you spend enough time looking at the numbers and have enough people ( ie institutions) you can do a better job than a passive index.
Some states have never sheltered at home and their rates of infection are public knowle…
I have a background in clinical epidemiology and research design and have followed all this carefully.
Better data is published from the compassionate use study in the NEJM
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016
It seems the folks…
No body knows but it will likely be variable accross the country but that may not help the stock market. Chipote in say Texas may be up and running long before NYC, but to buy CMG now you either have to be willing to absorb more pain as there is an…
Excellent post , sir. I think we forget, under the constant barrage of tweets from a much much less competent and humane successor, how many remarkable men this country has elected to the Oval Office. A visit to Hyde Park last summer brought it …
I looked at this last year and read all of Hunt's commentaries. Even before corona he believed that huge federal deficits will not cause inflation because the government will suck all of the credit out of the system the economy will not expand. C…
The problem is that when markets are so volatile , stocks and etfs frequently gap down or open well below yesterday's close ( and your stop order) so you get sold out at a much lower price than you expected
Mr Cinnamond was quite generous with his time even since he started this fund and sent out a very informative newsletter. I have emailed him several times and indeed he tells me it is far too expensive to get on the Schwab platform currently.
I wo…
Not worth as much as it used to be but still better than WSJ.
Gist of article is resturants are toast and suspending dividend, although MacDonalds and Domino's are down only single digits this year and haven't cut dividend. Probably because drive …
@Tarheel Sorry you get kicked out of M* I haven't had that problem on a regular basis.
Another advantage to having a real portfolio on M* is that you can track it on your phone with the App.
The portfolio tracker is the only reason I have kept …
no one really knows until the managers provide some clarity but I doubt it will go up as quickly as it went down even if the virus passes in a few months. Maybe as refinancings dry up fewer of their bonds will be turned over, but some of these folk…
