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"Most people" think that capitulation will not occur until VIX hits 40.
34 today
I would assume also we have to see oil and food costs at least stabilize, and not keep going up. Friday's CPI ex food and energy, I think, was down a tad. This may…
My only concerns with "bucket" suggestions is that I think they underestimate how long the market can be down. While I do not think American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is helpful most of the time, they did provide simple guidelines …
Look at REMX and GEMT
Focused on rare earths needed for a lot of technology ( and basically owned by China) and "green metals needed in EVs
LIT has been around since 2010 and is more liquid and more transparent than EVMT
Only 3% TSLA. A good thin…
Looking forward to hearing if this inability to compare ETFs to Mutual Funds is permanent. I suspect it is, since they now require a separate page for the chart itself. Just another nail in the coffin of M* for individual investors. Dumbing down th…
I assume they will offer something other than passive index funds, as the C F I E funds and the lifecycle funds fill that bill now. If they use a Fund vendor, like Vanguard's "Fund Access" there might be some useful funds.
I suspect there are a l…
I am not sure given the large number of people unemployed now but not looking for work today ( Long Coviders?, living on the increased dole, early retirees??) the unemployment rate would need to rise significantly with stagflation. It was 5% last A…
A quick look shows ITA overweight in Raytheon and LM ( 39%) with BA 5%
PPA is based on "SPADE defense index" which looks like the only one limited to defense firms, an does not include aerospace. Latter I would think will be economically sensitiv…
If I read another headline about the latest "undiscovered safe" stock or fund with a yield of 10% I will throw up.
All you have to do is look at ATT. What good was the 6% dividend when the stock is down 20 to 30% in the last 3 to 5 years?
What I assume is fueling the rallies is the fact that earnings for many firms are still good. In fact Chubb, Northrup Grumman and Leggett and Platt just raised their dividends.
See Comments I posted under "Rally soon" from Bespoke. Even in 2008 SP500 didn't go over 8 loosing weeks in a row.
But I don't think anything has been "fixed" and accepting the various measures of how high valuations were ( ie Hussy) this can clea…
From Bespoke Report free email.
The first shows historical weekly losing streaks for the S&P 500. At 7 consecutive down weeks (and counting), this is the longest losing streak for the US stock market since 2001. There have only been three p…
I have been looking at FARIX an absolute return/ Global Macro fund that FD100 mentioned on another board. They have a fair amount of useful data and information on their website. It has low correlations to Global equities (0.3) and FI (-0.3) and a …
I have read Weiner for years, as the newsletter is cheap although he rarely changes anything in the portfolios. However, it would not be my first choice for income, as his income portfolio looses 20% when the market crashes.
Having said that, he i…
The interview is another example of the declining usefulness of Barron's interviews. She doesn't say anything new, really. AI, Big Data, genomic revolution have been predicted to revolutionize health care for at least the last 20 years. No one talks…
It is worth knowing that Dan Weiner who has published the Independent Advisor for Vanguard Investors (for decades), long ago felt Hynes was doing such a poor job running VGHCX that he advised his readers to sell it and just use the Vanguard Health C…
So far I am up 1% this year but only because of energy and commodities. Value has done better than tech "but you can't eat relative performance!" The winners are just basic stuff, ie oil and DBA, because my small positions in water, rare minerals…
I have relatives who have driven TSLAs With the AC on Radio etc, the range is no where near 200 More like 125 to 150.
Everyone is holding their breath for the Truck, but who wants to spend that kinda money on a vehicle that won't go cross country …
Those of us who can remember Dreyfus Liquid Assets Money Market fund paying 12%, CPI at 14% treasuries at 16% and mortgages at 18% suspect it could worse.
The DJI was 600
Anybody else tempted by ATVI? It is almost $20 below MSFT price ( 95-78)
The market obviously thinks there is a sig chance the deal will not close, but Buffet obviously disagrees
What I find interesting is Warren bought more stock this last quarter than usual. If he expects a significant downturn, I would have thought he would wait.
However Activision has a floor under it with MSFT purchase and the other big buys were ener…
Early in retirement, the last thing I need is holding a large equity allocation in a prolonged bear market, so I am at my personal low end of stock allocations. I am marginally positive YTD overall, with overweighs in Energy and commodities and und…
BTW it looks like BPTRX still is loaded with TSLA.
Yesterday TSLA down 12% BPTRX down 8%
I have whittled my daughter's position down to 3% of her account. I would sell it all but she has a 400% gain.
I looked at the loan agreement and think it says ( I am not an accountant or lawyer) that is TSLA drops 35% from the price at which loan starts ( I don't think they pony up money until deal closes) Musk has to put up more cash ( not more shares)
Be…
@msf
The OID were all listed as "OID " in the title of the bond, so they were original issue.
There are not many bonds listed today ( Saturday) so I can't check if there were any OID bonds on Vanguard and Schwab for short term, but I think not. M…
In Taxable accounts you might look at individual munis bonds too.
High Quality Massachusetts ( GO and Harvard) 1 year bonds pay 1.7% tax free. Two years 2.2%
There are a lot of OID bonds selling for below par, but I have to look at tax consequen…
I have always bought the CD version , not really trusting TT online, and my tax situation is fairly complicated.
But my son used the online version last year, as it was cheaper or free( ?) He found he couldn't print a copy of his return.
Rather th…
Not just simple DUI. Original charge was felony resisting arrest with violence.
It shows up in SEC because he apparently lied about it on disclosure forms for SEC and Florida regulators
It is a difficult year, especially and the "bond ballast" has sunk.
My wife and my retirement accounts are up about 2.4% as we are overwieght energy and commodities, but still only 30% in equity positions. Recent Value focus helps too
Non-retirem…
I dont think it is unique to Fido. Vanguard is awful most of the time, made worse by incompetent backroom technology. While Schwab assigns me to a (usually) long tenured ep, who is a nice guy, he frequently turfs questions like those to the general…
A short term ladder starting at 3 mos will still pay more than cash
Apple bond due 9/12/2022 is 1.1 YTM 0.91 YTW
2% coupon but unlikely to be called I would think
1.1 beats negative 2%
Schwab still lists RCTIX as $2500 minimum but with $50 fee if anybody is interested.
But I think I am out as well, when the manger disappears
But there are so few alternatives that are not under lots of water.
Anybody else a bit concerned that RP…
I can't see inflation is controlled. Supply chain to China in worse mess than last year, due to Covid. Ukraine production of commodities will be hit bad, and will take time to trickle through the markets, although the recent spikes are likely an o…
