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@hank
I think it reflects the "market's view" that the fed is way behind inflation which will continue to soar, so people want much higher short term rates
but it is likely that a recession will start and long term rates will come down
Apparent…
@Charles
More info on ETF bond ladders here
https://www.invesco.com/us/en/insights/how-to-build-a-bond-ladder.html
https://www.ishares.com/us/resources/tools/ibonds
Detailed analysis of redemptions and returns of ishares ibonds going back to 201…
Federal funds rates do not reflect the real interest rates changes his year. Treasury yields have gone up much more in the shorter maturities than longer.
Last three month changes
6 mo treasury up 0.78%
1 year 1.2%
2 year …
@JD_co
I think it more likely reflects peoples' continuing belief that stocks will always go up, but they find it hard to see how a bond paying 2% will go up when interest rates are going to 4% and beyond
I wonder how many investors in this mark…
@msf
I was referring to VTMFX, but it has the same info as VMINX; supposedly $74.95 fee to purchase.
But when I put in a dummy trade, without completing it, the transaction fee is listed as $0.00.
I could have started a chat with Schwab but got …
You can go all in on the interest rate trade and short treasuries with an inverse fund TBF or TBX.
If interest rates continue to rise, PFIX will continue to do well.
Or look at funds that have not crashed so far this year. RCTIX ICMUX RPHIX are d…
@PRESSmUP
That is good news. You are correct that even as late as last fall Schwab said not available.
It looks like there is no purchase fee but $75 short term redemption fee. I have emailed Schwab to confirm.
But given above info, not sure I …
Thanks for the link. Looks like IWB + ITM beat the others with a little higher volatility than VTMFX.
This is even more interesting because of the higher expense ratio in the ETF (0.24 and 0.15% vs 0.09% for VTMFX)
Interesting after all the fuss V…
I kept my Vanguard account basically for VTMFX. This is harder to duplicate that VWINX ( or if you have $50,000 VWIAX.
VTMFX has er of 0.09% and is 50% VWIUX and 50% VTCLX, although the % apparently vary a bit. Unfortunately there is no ETF versi…
I put some money into GASFX decades ago when I was convinced nat gas was the wave of the future. I was obviously right, but 20 years early.
I would be cautious with GASFX, if you want to invest in natural gas, as it is essentially a utility (80%) f…
It is a bad year for Munis. I sold what I could without taking large gains in VWIUX ( Down 4% YTD) and kept overall duration low with VWSUX ( down 1%) and VMLUX ( Down 2%).
I bought NVHAX, figuring the good economy would keep the default rate in l…
My parents bought LTC insurance that reimbursed my mother about $45,000 for the last year in Assisted living ( not a nursing home or SNF) at a max $108 a day out of a total allowable benefit of $130,000.
I don't know when they purchased the polic…
So sad to read of his passing. I also want to send my deepest heart felt condolences to his family.
He died way too soon, at only 70.
I too bought Mutual Shares as my first mutual fund in 1989 ( or before, but that is as far back as my available r…
Romick also runs FPACX which is a sorta go anywhere moderate allocation fund that used to have stellar results with low risk. ( I think David has a chunk in his IRA, but I could be wrong. At one point it was closed although Schwab had special shares…
@Mark I would like to take credit for that epidemiologist but I don't think it was me. That is a great site !
@Hank
KWEB which is all China internet is up 30% today since yest close. The pop in DODEX depends on what % is Chinese tech, I think.
Y…
Another thing to look at is where the Ukraine and Russian wheat and agg products go. Most of it is to Emerging Markets Egypt India etc. While Russia is likely to continue this trade, I doubt there will be much Ukraine wheat etc leaving Ukraine for …
#3
I think the Chinese recognize ( but will not admit) that their vaccine is only 50% effective against delta; it may be even worse against Omicron.
While we all think Omicron is milder, I do not have data on it's relative virulence vs delta in u…
I apologize to anyone who feels this thread is not investment related, and I don't know what category it was started in, but as this is a much more reasonable audience to have this discussion with ( compared to Twitter or FB) I would appreciate it …
We live on Cape Cod where unless you can run your internet off your phone ( hard to do with movies etc) yo have one choice Comcast.
The recently jacked up prices $30 a month just because they could. We have the basic package for $ 120 ( Little spo…
COM recommended by @lynnbolin2021 is an interesting idea. I am partial to actively managed funds here, and two of my choices SPCAX and GRHAX have better 1 year records. However, a quick analysis shows COM did have much less MAX DD 3/2020.
It has b…
There seem to be two takes on Pootin. 1) he is a genius who aims to restore Mother Russia and just miscalculated how hard Ukraine would fight, having assumed his heavy weapons etc could take them out before his conscript army fell apart. He assumed…
Investech is a pretty good analysis of overall market, with a great track record of avoiding large downdrafts.
However, Stack's model portfolio is all in equity ETFs, not true commodity funds. Currently he has 4% in XLE( energy), 4% in XLB( Basic …
M* has a new analysis of why several "rated" commodity funds have not beaten the index this year, mostly due to holding longer term contracts than the ones that are going parabolic this year.
OF course having tempted you, I read it this morning on…
I understand tthat shale oil producers learned a hard lessonthe last time they over committed capital to drill wells that only produce a year away, but $89 a barrell is adequate for them to make a profit, especially since they can lock that price in…
I have about 2.5% of my portfolio in various commodity funds, mostly general commodity mutual funds. You need to look under the hood, as a number of the general funds are heavily weighted to energy, esp oil. That has been great this year, but not l…
A charitable reason is people are worried about what is coming, ie a recession, and the rapid increase in the household wealth of the bottom 20% is yesterday's news.
However, this does not explain why over a thousand vehicles and their drivers will…
Bloomberg says Russia will pay interest in rubles (ie TP) and "sanctions will determine if foreign bondholders get paid"
I assume this means that most western owners will get squat.
At the rate things are going, unless Pootin is overthrown, it wil…
@yogibearbull
Interesting article. You mention PDI ( 6% premium today) and TBLD (6% discount)
TBLD liquidates in 2033 so at least the discount will disappear.
If it pays a high distribution, and therefore returns capital, what would that do to yo…
It is always said that CEFs do not have to deal with outflows forcing them to sell into a declining market. That is true but i have never seen a study comparing OEF and CEFs on this point.
Unless you buy a discounted fund before it's liquidation is…
Most of the talking financial heads on CNN and PBS say it will take weeks to months for the Russian economy to collapse, esp if Europe has to continue buying millions of nat gas and oil
Having shut down their nuclear plants ( what were they thinki…
I find his overall review of the market very useful. He is essentially trying to time the market, but with proprietary models and formulas that he has used to good effect for years. However he is not "All in or all out" and has a model ETF portfol…
Of course Hunt has been saying that for years. If you want to just read his views in six pages go to the Hoisington Investment Management Company website economic reports 4th quarterly outlook
https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2021Q4NP.pdf
For a contrary and apocalyptic view Lacy Hunt is always worth listening to. He has believed that the debt burden of the US and the world is so huge that it will strangle the economy and create a massive depression.
This is a pretty technical inte…
