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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
We should have a pool about whether it's going to be over 3%, also whether Shiller p/e is going to touch 39.
Core definitions and the shadows on the cave wall:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/opinion/us-transitory-core-inflation.html
I am interested also in the nonmonetary 'multiplier effects', retrospective reimagining of other outcomes and projected paths for current policy decisions:
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc…
yeah, NFHA has lots of informative / disturbing deep dives more recently, e.g.:
https://nationalfairhousing.org/using-spcps-blog/
covering race-based denial rates and more
( interesting link within:
https://www.consumerfinance.gov/rules-policy…
@Baseball_Fan
>> Why is the interest rates not the same for everyone.
Well, with credit cards and student loans it is, by law, I am reading, with variance chiefly due to fico score. That is the key to your (so far as I can tell mistaken) a…
yeah, for me that was waaay too late, bullshit, also like being sorry for getting caught
ample ample evidence prior, again and again and again; not a true tipping point, where the behavior just then passed some threshold
I left Parnassus because of their lingering embrace of Wells-Fargo, no matter what news came out.
Surprising Shkreli and Holmes have not found a way into payday lending.
@Baseball Fan
>> Can we be real with each other?
Are you saying that credit card companies actually know the color of a cardholder?
>> in general, minorities pay way higher rates than white folks do,
How does that work, in your …
sure
My question had been better put as What do we gain or lose over the long term by expanding from VOO to VONE to VTI ?
And the answer is very very little.
Har, I posted my fruit snark without checking PortfolioVisualizer, which shows very close to perfect and full correlation.
(You have to use mfunds instead of the etfs to get a better long look).
V similar w VONE as well.
So what's the point of…
I put a lot in it a month or so ago and it has not done what my other holdings have. (Given its holdings, it oughtn't've.) I ain't touching it, of course.
Here is PK elaboration today (not specifically limited to debt-GDP ratio), w some repetition:
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20210730&instance_id=36716&nl=paul-kru…
Yeah, I spent many years of my tech writing career doing DoD proposals and came to see full well how robust offerings come to be as pricy as they are. It was fascinating to see how the military puts such intense pressure on costs / cost-cutting and …
Agreed, but there is no reducing the debt unless the military budget takes a truly serious hit (as it should). Otherwise you will have many families living and dying in the streets, I expect. (Mil spending is not as large as each of the entitlement …
>> What do I advocate? The immediate question and the start of this thread is whether to raise the debt ceiling. I'll give a Republican quote from the original piece: "My personal opinion is that once we have acquired the debt, we are responsi…
@Sven : I thing more than Covid is effecting Mr. Market. Instead of double bubble, More like a triple bubble !! Housing, equity, & Covid.
Hope I'm wrong, Derf
Rattner's take:
https://www.nyt…
It would be nice to know what inning we're in ?!
Stay Kool, Derf
not sure this is an answer but figured it would be of interest
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/upshot/economy-gdp-analysis.html
>> it would help if you could explain what in the piece you found relevant to budget deficits.
Well, of course this, an interesting way of looking at it:
And the Fed has indeed bought a lot of government debt. But is the Fed really financi…
The Krug quote was from 9y ago, as noted, just making the general point, and over long spans.
As for
>> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
click the 5y and 1y graphs to see the decline and leveling from a year ago. (Not large.…
Moreover, ... governments don’t [have to pay back their debt] — all they need to do is ensure that debt grows more slowly than their tax base. The debt from World War II was never repaid; it just became increasingly irrelevant as the U.S. economy gr…
So it's clear it's chiefly a mental health thing for some --- instead of deciding anything, you can (have to only) talk with someone and be done.
If you can diy and leave alone with a clear head and low enough anxiety to get through the day, obviou…
Hi @davidrmoran
Regardless of the beginning post topic; you've been here long enough to understand that a great deal of knowledge may be learned and digested from from the follow-up posts by members, yes?
I too have way more than enough money. Wha…
I don't understand why this is considered a "silly question, silly answer". It's a question that I've asked myself many, many times over the last couple of years as I've watched the equity market continually rack up gains.
OJ,
You have seriously a…
some fun lookbacks arguing over foreign investment
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/02/27/investing-do-you-want-to-send-your-money-abroad/24077415/
https://johnmwaggoner.wordpress.com/2015/06/08/death-to-u-s-stock-funds/
this is good analysis
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20210720&instance_id=35760&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=…
