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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
always compare w vong and voog over various timespans to assess added value, including from right before and after the covid dip
but in my brief looksee it's clear the fido ones are winners (a notoriously aggressive growth shop) and one or two of …
welcome; I wish doing so helped my understanding more, although for me it does always prove useful to research and write things down, while rereading smarties here.
I have trouble ripping off Barron's, but last spring Forsyth seemed not a fan of …
>> Help us understand whether the reason you gave for excluding home prices from the CPI-U also excludes the cost of college educations.
Can't; just a sense. But I had not delved the OER paper below.
If I had a really good answer about educa…
My initial objection was to the assertion as to the reasons for the removal of home prices, nothing more.
>> removed from the official price indexes owing to political and statistical issues.
A lame, misleading (not only silly and tendenti…
It was shorthand for inflation calculation components
You are the one w firm and presumably non-continuum answers for what should be ‘embedded’ and what embedded comprises or ought to, while all of the professional minds debate endlessly what pric…
Yellen explaining a few weeks ago;
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/05/yellen-sees-inflation-staying-higher-for-the-next-several-months.html
And from this morning:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/10/24/full-interview-with-secretary-janet…
>> owing to political and statistical issues
This is silly, or at best tendentious. Why should rare years-apart purchases be included in widely impacting run-of-the-mill inflation calcs? Go read the many articles posted here about what the '…
>> owing to political and statistical issues
This is silly, or at best tendentious. Why should rare years-apart purchases be included in widely impacting run-of-the-mill inflation calcs? Go read the many articles posted here about what the '…
I put a big slug into it some time ago, much thanks to Bolin and others, and while I am not seeing that it notably improves on VONE + STIP 50-50 (or close proportion of your choosing), they do do a good job. ~300% turnover!
first do no harm, and all that
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20211015&instance_id=42956&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK=&regi_id=22268089&…
Something between refusal and incapacity --- denial, shrug, actual forgetfulness abetted by or aligned with great sloth and increasing casualness about all things.
I am so hoping it turns out that I am misinferring / misinterpreting some of the gr…
No need to 'pay anything down', but investing to address current problems and fix things for a better future, quite aside from paying what we already have spent and owe, is always smart. Plus plugging tax dodges.
Socialist fiscal insanity is good, …
I first heard him as a child in the 1950s, and it came to help me understand thoughtless reactionary minds and their frights. Plus wannabe-droll delivery.
Enjoy reading his comments on MFO. Wondering if Ed ever posted comments in Discussions?
Hmm. It seems increasingly a little like elderly late-night AM talkshowspeak, out-there, doomish without specifics, yet also equivocal:
>> we are on the…
My definitions for market drawdowns - probably correspond to most people’s
0-5% diplet
5-10% dip
10-20% correction
>20% bear market
+/- a couple of decimals.
Who here would not bet half the house --- assuming economic and business variables s…
I appreciate the honesty of posters acknowledging losses as well as gains: you win some, you lose some.
Part of my point anyway was that over 5+ quarters I have had no losses from simply going with my gut. No repeatable or 'point-outable' skill for…
welcome
oh, more than once, in terms of bailing out of equities
(just too damn high)
all of the above are successes, obvs, but the largest was only perhaps a quarter of the our total egg
large enough for me
Below is some hasty / lazy work for me to show myself my actual practice since covid onset and I sold off nearly everything after return to breakeven summer '20 (as I was sure covid would be this bfd hit to all markets).
- All dip buying and selli…
Really like HNDL, the others meh except for HIPS which is a train wreck.
Man, what does this tell you? :
HNDL, which is a fund-of-funds, has a target distribution strategy that you often find in the closed-end fund universe.
... On the downsid…
Yes, tnx, 'similarly' was not the exact adverb.
In some senses the def of labile, esp under color of your recent analyses of weightings.
>> are not all that similar. Six weeks ago, the former had 45% of its holdings in the top ten, while t…
Yeah, jeez, as of 6w ago the mighty VONG is similarly >39% in:
AAPL Apple Inc 10.52
MSFT Microsoft Corp 9.87
AMZN Amazon.com Inc 6.64
FB Facebook Inc Class A 3.92
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A 3.19
GOOG Alphabet Inc Class C 3.05
TSLA Tesla Inc 2.45
