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Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018

Hi guys!
Hope all is well with all of you. I know it's been good here.....too much food followed by too many longnecks with family and friends. Moe and Larry were over.....big pow wow again. We all agree. We believe we're going higher this year. Just to catch up: opened positions in FLPSX and MAPIX. My midcaps were expensive on PE and book. FLPSX, not so, plus it had cash, so how could I not. MAPIX has very little Asia except Japan. Got lots there, so I needed this.
Anyways, back to the pow wow. We were kicking around some small funds. The Dukester really liked PREOX. Why? It's small......real small. We believe things will be getting better this year. So I can see his point. Small is good right now. Me? I like PVIVX. Why? It's concentrated and it's got some girls running it.....think diversification.....yee haw!!!! Moe and Larry? They like WAMVX. Can't blame them for that. It's the safe buy.
Talked to Santa after Duke cornered him....short chat, but we told Santa we believe. He just smiled, so I think he does, too. So, even though I don't make millions of dollars, my call: higher boys! Also, if you're thinking about Latin America this year, more elections there than in the last 10 years. Just saying......
Also, watch Italy this year if you own GLFOX. Elections also there.
Also, the slowest 3 months for imports are coming: January, February, March. We will now see what the weather did in 2017.
Also, the Dukester told me we did not wish anyone on the board a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! As punishment for this, I will penalize myself 1 (one) longneck every day for the rest of the week, and.....say Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!
God bless
the Pudd
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Comments

  • At years end I sold a lot of TIBIX and divided it between the Rondure funds ROSOX and RNWOX. Frankly it's primarily a play on the management and ownership.

    Trying to decide what to do with M now that the holiday shopping season is over. Otherwise just sitting on my hands.
  • At years end I sold a lot of TIBIX and divided it between the Rondure funds ROSOX and RNWOX. Frankly it's primarily a play on the management and ownership.
    @Mark, I like it. Why both Rondure funds though? I've been 'pondering' a switch from SGENX to RNWOX myself. Just a thought right now.
  • Going into the New Year I hold 4 bond funds - emerging markets, world, high yield corporate, and bank loan. Plan on adding a multi sector tomorrow and possibly a high yield muni. Hold too large an amount in cash and hope to deploy much of that over the next week or two. Hopefully by then will hold just one or two of the bond funds depending on where the strength is in Bondland. Assuming there is any strength. I am completely out of IOFIX as it no longer meets my criteria.

    For numerous reasons, this year my main goal is to transfer all my monies to Fidelity. Another goal is to get even more fit and healthy. I don’t see the point of accumulating wealth if you can’t enjoy it by being both physically and mentally active. At my age I could go at anytime so want to hike and explore as much as possible while I am still here and able. Good luck to all in 2018!

  • Intend on selling OSTIX in my taxable account as I'm trying to lower my tax bill in 2018. It's a good fund but should be used in a retirement account, IMO. Not particularly tax efficient. I own enough high yield stuff anyway.
  • Sold some pondx, must now run orp to get a fix on this year and rmd and taxes and all that.
  • @MikeM re: ROSOX/RNWOX split - the two seem to operate in different arena's near as I can discern. ROSOX the Overseas fund is a better fit straight on to the holdings in TIBIX being more centered on large cap foreign holdings in established markets including Japan. I also like the current low asset base. RNWOX the New World fund excludes Japan and seems more focused on less established markets although I don't really consider China and Russia as emerging economies anymore. Lastly I can't decide which of these two areas have better prospects going forward.

    FWIW, I now hold only 7 mutual funds and none constitute more than 5% of my entire portfolio. I also hold less than 5% outside the US.
  • Thanks @Mark. I do see after a closer look that the funds are different. I am also intrigued by "management and ownership" which is why I'm considering a swap.

    Also, I assume you meant "none constitute more less than 5%". I'm always impressed with portfolio simplicity!
  • You're welcome @MikeM. And no, you read it right the first time. Mutual funds constitute less than 17% of my entire portfolio. The other 83% is made up of growing dividend producing stocks and REIT's along with a goodly chunk of preferred stocks and primarily Pimco bond CEF's. I make no apologies, I am an income/dividend accumulating slut.
  • edited January 2018
    Happpppy New Year To All!

    Results from January 1 portfolio checkup: EM Stocks = 7%, Other Foreign Stocks = 14%, Domestic Stocks = 29%, Bonds = 37%, Cash = 7%, Other = 7%. Note: Small caps = 18% of stocks.

    January changes starting today:

    Sell All -- SPHD (replace by increasing investment with an asset allocator); MAPIX (too much Japan for me for 2018); IOFIX (not comfortable leaving this one unattended for extended periods of time!)

    Buy More Of These Existing Holdings -- BTBFX, MEASX, PTIAX, MCRDX.

    Finally, finish up with miscellaneous annual rebalancing.

    Once the above are accomplished, the portfolio will return to Snooze Mode until the fall quarter -- unless a significant internal or external shock is able to arouse it!

  • :) @Mark, I take back my 'impressed with your portfolio simplicity' comment. Just kidding. What ever works.
  • edited January 2018
    Junkster said:

    Another goal is to get even more fit and healthy. I don’t see the point of accumulating wealth if you can’t enjoy it by being both physically and mentally active. At my age I could go at anytime so want to hike and explore as much as possible while I am still here and able. Good luck to all in 2018!

    Great stuff @Junkster. Fitness has been a daily habit of mine for several years now. Actually resumed bicycling at 68 or 69 and love it. My passion has always been “going somewhere” by plane since I first flew in 1974. So as long as I can walk, crawl or hobble out to an aircraft I’ll keep going. To the Keys in March. Afraid they’ll look a lot different after Irma.

    Like you, I’ll eventually consolidate my fund investments. T. Rowe will be the place.

    Regards

  • I added to TDVFX and swapped half of my SFGIX for SIVLX. I like value, by temperament, and I also subscribe to the buy-a-newer-fund-from-a-great-shop theory. I'm pondering buying a little OSTIX. All this in tax-deferred, where I'm trying to concentrate my active mutual funds.

    I'm keeping my cash & ultra-short bonds steady at about 20%. (I had a good year on non-investment earnings, so can add to equities & keep cash levels steady.)

    I've been pondering VWAHX in my taxable account, since it seems like such a fabulous fund, but its relatively long duration makes me nervous. Everyone's predicting a gradual rise in interest rates, but I think this tax bill is going to blow up the deficit sooner rather than later, so we could see rates spike.
  • @MFO Members: Exchanged SPY for IVV, 0.9 ER vs. 0.4 ER. Not a lot of savings, but every penny counts over time. I intend to hold and add to the haystack as long as I am on this planet.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • edited January 2018
    Ted said:

    I intend to hold and add to the haystack as long as I am on this planet.

    Ha! I always suspected Ted was from a different planet.
  • That's 0.09 and 0.04 Ted. Apparently I've got money to burn as I'm with DIA at 0.17 ER. Different animals I know but I only have so much fuel.
  • I made several moves today:

    -Trimmed POAGX. I know that this is a violation of the rule of "let your winners run", but it hit the dollar threshold where my rules say to take some profit. Oh well...the proceeds go to this year's spend bucket.

    -Established an initial position in ROSOX, a fund which has received some attention on this thread. I put this on my watch list ever since the fund holdings first came out last year and I saw with some surprise that a third of the holdings were in Japan. I hadn't given Japan any thought in years...but it turns out that this was a great call. This fund touches the bases where I need support, and fits in nicely with a combination of Matthews, Seafarer, Artisan, FMI and GP in my accounts to cover the breadth of foreign holdings, each with solid managers.

    -I got tired of a large cash balance waiting for a consolidation, so I put a slug of cash to work in current holdings which I think are good for near term income and performance in spite of a future bump in rates...PIFZX, SSTHX, TGINX, and ZEOIX.
  • I will probably trim Home Depot a bit as it has become too large a position in my portfolio... Also looking to trim Harbor International. What are people's thoughts on GQG Emerging Partners fund? I am already invested in Seafarer, but need to increase my emerging markets exposure. Jain has a great track record and invests his fund quite differently than Seafarer...
  • @MikeW, I bought GQGPX a few months back, but only TD Ameritrade and Schwab are selling it. Started relatively small, but am adding over time. I had his Virtus Emerging until he left, have been hoping he would reappear. There is also GSIHX, which he is subadvisor on, sold at Fido ntf and load waived. Put a bit more into that one since I had sold MINDX. That one is less emerging, but he has an excellent track record, and I like to find new funds with strong managers that go on their own. I also own Seafarer and find Jain invests differently than any of my other global or intl funds. Worth buying IMO.
  • I had to switch over my 401k at the beginning of 2017 as my employer was acquired by another company. Thinking that market is at a high and due for correction, I held 60-70% in stable value fund and invested the remaining conservatively in a bond fund, OAKBOX, and a few aggressive domestic and international funds. Though out the year, I moved the money to these funds from stable value fund, but still kept it at around 50% - a bad move in retrospect.

    I brought down the Stable value fund to 30% of my 401k as part of 2018 adjustments, still relatively high but not getting the courage to go all stocks at this high of all markets. Added to OAKBX, FTBFX, GTDIX, and FIDKX.


    In my IRA accounts, I moved cash to VIAIX - V'rd International Divident Appreciation index fund. Opened a position in PRLAX.
  • @slick thanks very much for the feedback on gqg. I really appreciate it. I will do some research on the other fund that you mention.
  • bot some more PDI
  • edited January 2018
    A great shortened trading week for bonds - lead by emerging markets, high yield corporates, and world. Added to my existing positions there and sold half of my lagging bank loan. That puts me at 70% in the three strongest and 15% bank loan with 15% in cash which I hope to deploy next week. Junk corporates historically have been especially strong in Januaries so not sure what to expect after this strong opening week. We have heard ad nauseum about the tightness in credit spreads and junk not offering much value. I am not enamored of junk but open to being surprised. I thought I was going to be less aggressive than I was this week in Bondland. Old habits are hard to break.

    Not a popular opinion but not a fan of PIMIX/PONDX - at least if you are looking for open end bond outperformance in 2018. Otherwise with the best bond manager on the planet an excellent fund for contented retirees. A bit too staid the past many months and wondering if asset bloat is finally catching up. Non agencies have hit a wall and that may have contributed to its lack of oomph recently. I actually hope though I am wrong and it is a another great year like 2016 and 2017 for PIMIX. That would mean like in the aforementioned years double digit gains in other areas of Bondland for 2018. That would sure be a pleasant surprise.

    Edit: I would also include PTIAX having an uninspired 2018.



  • edited January 2018
    I would like to buy Rondure, but they are not available NTF anywhere I could see. I'm reall trying to move away from holding accounts at individual fund companies. Getting old and have to think regarding educating and simplifying life for near and dear ones in case something bad happens.

    EDIT: Wait a minute. It is available at Fidelity. Yay!
  • Which Rondure fund do like the best?
  • Continuing to slowly add to multiple funds, including FRIFX, ARTFX, PRGTX and SGENX, all in tax-deferred accounts.
  • I would like to buy Rondure, but they are not available NTF anywhere I could see. I'm reall trying to move away from holding accounts at individual fund companies. Getting old and have to think regarding educating and simplifying life for near and dear ones in case something bad happens.

    EDIT: Wait a minute. It is available at Fidelity. Yay!

    Also available from Schwab for no fee. I bought some RNWOX in May when it started.
  • edited January 2018
    Hello.

    Below is Old_Skeet’s market barometer report for the weekending January 5, 2018.

    This week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 135 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is well into overbought territory. During the past year the Index has risen in valuation from 2239 to 2674 for about a 19.4% valuation increase while earnings have risen by about 13%. With this, investors are now willing to pay more for a dollars worth of earnings over what they paid a year ago. During the month of December short interest in SPY has moved from 2.5 days to cover down to 1.7 days. Indeed, stocks have become very bullish and with the new tax reform package becoming law they will perhaps become even more pricey. How high will valuations trend is anybody’s guess: but, for me stocks are currently very richly priced.

    So what is Old_Skeet doing in this richly valued stock market? I am building cash and trading around the edges utilizing spiffs (special investment positions). This brings up my two market compasses. One follows the sectors of the S&P 500 Index while the other follows world regions along with a few other choices.

    From my compass I pick the three best performance leaders, also known as the pack, for each compass. From the pack I pick the lead hound and open a position. As long as the lead hound can stay a member of the pack I leave money on it. When the hound falters and falls form the pack I pick another lead hound and repeat the process. Naturally, if stocks begin to pull back and the momentum is lost across the board I close the position(s).

    For the S&P 500 Compass the pack consist of XLE (energy), XLK (technology) & XLY (consumer discretionary) with XLY currently being the lead & money hound. In my Global Compass the pack consist of GSP (commodities), EEM (emerging markets) & EWJ (Japan) with GSP being the lead & money hound.

    Yes, stocks are richly priced (from my perspective) and looking to become even more so as we move through 2018 and even though earnings are improving stock prices are on an upper move much faster than their earnings growth.

    Thanks for stopping by and reading.

    I wish all … “Good Investing.”

    Old_Skeet
  • edited January 2018
    billr said:


    Also available from Schwab for no fee. I bought some RNWOX in May when it started.

    I expect to hold this one for a while, yeah? Ended up buying at Vanguard. I should have kept looking for availability. After a while I just stopped thinking just like new Seafarer fund, these funds may never enter NTF platforms. Glad I checked.

    Speaking of net new fund purchases, I reduced lot of funds as per plan in 2017, including completely eliminating HSGFX.

    Another new purchase ARTTX at Fidelity. Hope I don't regret this. After going public, I'm very suspicious of motivations of Artisan. The only publicly trade MF company I really trust is TRP. I'm still ticked off by their excessive fawning over ARTYX. That manager has not done anything. ARTZX which can't seem to attract assets is doing as well. There is no value ARTYX manager is adding, but they are using press to tout his fund to attract assets.

    Screen_Shot_2018_01_06_at_9_45_45_AM

  • @Old_Skeet - As Per Fortune Roundtable, "energy" should be underweighted. General consensus from all including TRP Growth Fund manager. I forget his name

    As per GaveKal, "oil" is going up.

    Just FYI. "oil" may or may not equate "energy" at large".
  • edited January 2018
    Hi @VintageFreak,

    Thanks for making comment on my Pack and Lead Hound Strategy.

    Please know, that the pack is in flux and changes with the movement of the sectors. Currently, the sectors that lead the three month bogey hound EQL are XLF, XLI, XLB, XLE, XLK & XLY (the last three currently making up the lead pack). Within this pack XLY is the current lead hound. Those that trail EQL are XLP, XLV, XLRE & XLU. There will perhaps be another hound added to my 500 Index kennel sometime this year and that is XTL (telecom). In addition to the lead hound strategy I use a pick three (win, place or show) strategy was well.

    The 2018 hunt is on ... and, I've got spiff money on hounds in both compasses. And, as the pack and lead hound change so will my money. You can view how the 500 Index sector hounds are running by clicking on the link below.

    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker

    Generally, there are daily hunts available Monday thru Friday from 9:30 am to 4:00 pm est (except holidays). Contact your local investment advisor (or broker, etc.) for investment details.

    Old_Skeet

    Note: I use EQL (an equally weighted sector etf) over SPY as my bogey hound. And, if a hound can't beat the fixed income bogey hound (AGG) then it's for sure a cash out day for it/them.
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