Hi guys!
Hope all is well with all of you. I know it's been good here.....too much food followed by too many longnecks with family and friends. Moe and Larry were over.....big pow wow again. We all agree. We believe we're going higher this year. Just to catch up: opened positions in FLPSX and MAPIX. My midcaps were expensive on PE and book. FLPSX, not so, plus it had cash, so how could I not. MAPIX has very little Asia except Japan. Got lots there, so I needed this.
Anyways, back to the pow wow. We were kicking around some small funds. The Dukester really liked PREOX. Why? It's small......real small. We believe things will be getting better this year. So I can see his point. Small is good right now. Me? I like PVIVX. Why? It's concentrated and it's got some girls running it.....think diversification.....yee haw!!!! Moe and Larry? They like WAMVX. Can't blame them for that. It's the safe buy.
Talked to Santa after Duke cornered him....short chat, but we told Santa we believe. He just smiled, so I think he does, too. So, even though I don't make millions of dollars, my call: higher boys! Also, if you're thinking about Latin America this year, more elections there than in the last 10 years. Just saying......
Also, watch Italy this year if you own GLFOX. Elections also there.
Also, the slowest 3 months for imports are coming: January, February, March. We will now see what the weather did in 2017.
Also, the Dukester told me we did not wish anyone on the board a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! As punishment for this, I will penalize myself 1 (one) longneck every day for the rest of the week, and.....say Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!
God bless
the Pudd
Comments
Trying to decide what to do with M now that the holiday shopping season is over. Otherwise just sitting on my hands.
For numerous reasons, this year my main goal is to transfer all my monies to Fidelity. Another goal is to get even more fit and healthy. I don’t see the point of accumulating wealth if you can’t enjoy it by being both physically and mentally active. At my age I could go at anytime so want to hike and explore as much as possible while I am still here and able. Good luck to all in 2018!
FWIW, I now hold only 7 mutual funds and none constitute more than 5% of my entire portfolio. I also hold less than 5% outside the US.
Also, I assume you meant "none constitute
moreless than 5%". I'm always impressed with portfolio simplicity!Results from January 1 portfolio checkup: EM Stocks = 7%, Other Foreign Stocks = 14%, Domestic Stocks = 29%, Bonds = 37%, Cash = 7%, Other = 7%. Note: Small caps = 18% of stocks.
January changes starting today:
Sell All -- SPHD (replace by increasing investment with an asset allocator); MAPIX (too much Japan for me for 2018); IOFIX (not comfortable leaving this one unattended for extended periods of time!)
Buy More Of These Existing Holdings -- BTBFX, MEASX, PTIAX, MCRDX.
Finally, finish up with miscellaneous annual rebalancing.
Once the above are accomplished, the portfolio will return to Snooze Mode until the fall quarter -- unless a significant internal or external shock is able to arouse it!
Like you, I’ll eventually consolidate my fund investments. T. Rowe will be the place.
Regards
I'm keeping my cash & ultra-short bonds steady at about 20%. (I had a good year on non-investment earnings, so can add to equities & keep cash levels steady.)
I've been pondering VWAHX in my taxable account, since it seems like such a fabulous fund, but its relatively long duration makes me nervous. Everyone's predicting a gradual rise in interest rates, but I think this tax bill is going to blow up the deficit sooner rather than later, so we could see rates spike.
Regards,
Ted
-Trimmed POAGX. I know that this is a violation of the rule of "let your winners run", but it hit the dollar threshold where my rules say to take some profit. Oh well...the proceeds go to this year's spend bucket.
-Established an initial position in ROSOX, a fund which has received some attention on this thread. I put this on my watch list ever since the fund holdings first came out last year and I saw with some surprise that a third of the holdings were in Japan. I hadn't given Japan any thought in years...but it turns out that this was a great call. This fund touches the bases where I need support, and fits in nicely with a combination of Matthews, Seafarer, Artisan, FMI and GP in my accounts to cover the breadth of foreign holdings, each with solid managers.
-I got tired of a large cash balance waiting for a consolidation, so I put a slug of cash to work in current holdings which I think are good for near term income and performance in spite of a future bump in rates...PIFZX, SSTHX, TGINX, and ZEOIX.
I brought down the Stable value fund to 30% of my 401k as part of 2018 adjustments, still relatively high but not getting the courage to go all stocks at this high of all markets. Added to OAKBX, FTBFX, GTDIX, and FIDKX.
In my IRA accounts, I moved cash to VIAIX - V'rd International Divident Appreciation index fund. Opened a position in PRLAX.
Not a popular opinion but not a fan of PIMIX/PONDX - at least if you are looking for open end bond outperformance in 2018. Otherwise with the best bond manager on the planet an excellent fund for contented retirees. A bit too staid the past many months and wondering if asset bloat is finally catching up. Non agencies have hit a wall and that may have contributed to its lack of oomph recently. I actually hope though I am wrong and it is a another great year like 2016 and 2017 for PIMIX. That would mean like in the aforementioned years double digit gains in other areas of Bondland for 2018. That would sure be a pleasant surprise.
Edit: I would also include PTIAX having an uninspired 2018.
EDIT: Wait a minute. It is available at Fidelity. Yay!
Below is Old_Skeet’s market barometer report for the weekending January 5, 2018.
This week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 135 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is well into overbought territory. During the past year the Index has risen in valuation from 2239 to 2674 for about a 19.4% valuation increase while earnings have risen by about 13%. With this, investors are now willing to pay more for a dollars worth of earnings over what they paid a year ago. During the month of December short interest in SPY has moved from 2.5 days to cover down to 1.7 days. Indeed, stocks have become very bullish and with the new tax reform package becoming law they will perhaps become even more pricey. How high will valuations trend is anybody’s guess: but, for me stocks are currently very richly priced.
So what is Old_Skeet doing in this richly valued stock market? I am building cash and trading around the edges utilizing spiffs (special investment positions). This brings up my two market compasses. One follows the sectors of the S&P 500 Index while the other follows world regions along with a few other choices.
From my compass I pick the three best performance leaders, also known as the pack, for each compass. From the pack I pick the lead hound and open a position. As long as the lead hound can stay a member of the pack I leave money on it. When the hound falters and falls form the pack I pick another lead hound and repeat the process. Naturally, if stocks begin to pull back and the momentum is lost across the board I close the position(s).
For the S&P 500 Compass the pack consist of XLE (energy), XLK (technology) & XLY (consumer discretionary) with XLY currently being the lead & money hound. In my Global Compass the pack consist of GSP (commodities), EEM (emerging markets) & EWJ (Japan) with GSP being the lead & money hound.
Yes, stocks are richly priced (from my perspective) and looking to become even more so as we move through 2018 and even though earnings are improving stock prices are on an upper move much faster than their earnings growth.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Old_Skeet
Speaking of net new fund purchases, I reduced lot of funds as per plan in 2017, including completely eliminating HSGFX.
Another new purchase ARTTX at Fidelity. Hope I don't regret this. After going public, I'm very suspicious of motivations of Artisan. The only publicly trade MF company I really trust is TRP. I'm still ticked off by their excessive fawning over ARTYX. That manager has not done anything. ARTZX which can't seem to attract assets is doing as well. There is no value ARTYX manager is adding, but they are using press to tout his fund to attract assets.
As per GaveKal, "oil" is going up.
Just FYI. "oil" may or may not equate "energy" at large".
Thanks for making comment on my Pack and Lead Hound Strategy.
Please know, that the pack is in flux and changes with the movement of the sectors. Currently, the sectors that lead the three month bogey hound EQL are XLF, XLI, XLB, XLE, XLK & XLY (the last three currently making up the lead pack). Within this pack XLY is the current lead hound. Those that trail EQL are XLP, XLV, XLRE & XLU. There will perhaps be another hound added to my 500 Index kennel sometime this year and that is XTL (telecom). In addition to the lead hound strategy I use a pick three (win, place or show) strategy was well.
The 2018 hunt is on ... and, I've got spiff money on hounds in both compasses. And, as the pack and lead hound change so will my money. You can view how the 500 Index sector hounds are running by clicking on the link below.
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
Generally, there are daily hunts available Monday thru Friday from 9:30 am to 4:00 pm est (except holidays). Contact your local investment advisor (or broker, etc.) for investment details.
Old_Skeet
Note: I use EQL (an equally weighted sector etf) over SPY as my bogey hound. And, if a hound can't beat the fixed income bogey hound (AGG) then it's for sure a cash out day for it/them.