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@Old_Skeet, your sector momentum strategy sounds exactly like that momentum news letter you used to link a few years ago. Are you copying that guy's strategy? Can't remember the name of the letter or the guy who ran it. Invest in the 3 leading sectors and replace sectors based on current strength.
Kind of why I like the CAPE strategy of DSENX albeit the opposite strategy. They do do it better than I could.
There are some similarities; but, no I am not copying his strategy.
To view his strategy you can view it by clicking on the below link and this will take you to the Market Leadership Strategy that he post weekly. I'm not sure how he ranks his investment choices or chooses them either. My ranking of assets is purely performance based for a number of time periods. You can build your on compass of assets you select then set them up in Morningstar's Portfolio Manager. The time periods I use to monitor are daily, monthly, quarterly, year-to-date, and one year. My two spiff compasses are composed of the 500 Index sectors and the second is a global compass that follows mostly the world regions (from Xray) plus a few others I selected. Maintaining and following the compasses has helped me better position money within my mutual fund portfolio. Plus, it takes me back to the dog track where I use to (many years ago) put a little spiff on the dogs. My strategy comes from a betting style I used at the dog track where I'd bet three dogs to wins place or show and modified it down to the Pack and Lead Hound Strategy for investment purposes.
Here is the link to Market Leadership Strategy that you referenced.
Yes skeet, that is the news letter I was thinking about. Haven't seen it for quite a while.
Your post got me thinking about the comparison between a "leadership" investment style that is proposed by yourself and "Invest-with-an-edge" versus a strategy that really is the opposite, a value strategy seen in DSENX. Very small sample size since DSENX is fairly new, but I can see from the link you attached and from M*'s DSENX performance data that the "buy under-valued sectors" strategy has done much better then "the sectors in favor" strategy. Again, very small amount of data. Both have outperformed the S&P 500 though.
Who knows. That's why I've left it to the fund managers to decide.
Have to go get my Buffalo chicken wings and beer ready for our 1st playoff game in 17 years!!! Some inside tail-gating in this zero degree weather.... GO BILLS.
Currently helping my in laws rebalance their portfolios. They had no international exposure or bonds. Trying to figure out what the best t rowe price fund/funds to put them in since they have no brokerage window there. A bunch of options I'd put them in typically are closed.
@Old_Skeet. I need to understand what you are doing more. I tried doing some sector trading in 2017. I lost a little on many trades, but earned a lot on few trades and was net positive. However, I decided to take a step back and stop. Unfortunately for me my "model" would have had me in XLE from November if I had stuck to it
Frankly, after my recent accident my priorities also changed. BTW, all I turned 50 recently and realized I was 10 pounds overweight. So instead of buying / selling I'm pondering my weight and health right now for a bit.
Let's go back to the 500 Index compass. It is comprised of the major sector etf's. In portfolio manager I follow these tickers plus EQL which is an equally weighted sector etf and serves as my bogey. If you want to beat the bogey you have to be in the sectors performing above the bogey and out of those that trail it. With this I choose the three that are performing the best for the time period I have chossen (usually the three month time frame for the spiff). These three become my lead pack and within the pack there is a lead etf (hound). This etf becomes the spiff "money" hound so to speak and remains the money hound as long as it can remain a member of the lead pack. Sould it falter and unable to keep pace with the pack then the spiff is closed and a new lead hound is choosen with a new spiff being placed. It's a momenutm strategy. I'll be posting weekly on it for a while anyway. After a while it will beome "old news" and the postings will fade.
So follow along ... Let's see how Old_Skeet did in week one.
Week one results. The current lead 90 day hound XLY as the year began had a starting value of $98.69. Thus far it is up 3.13% and remains a lead 90 day pack member. The other two are XLE (up 3.75%) and XLK (up 3.67%) for the week. EQL the bogey hound is up 1.64%. XLB is closing fast on the lead 90 day pack (with XLI & XLF close behind) and might one or more may soon become a pack member of the current lead hounds being removed and perhaps a new lead hound taking over (spiff hound). We want know this until market close Friday the 12th when the weekly results get tabulated.
Starting week two the lead pack remains the same with XLY the spiff hound.
Can XLY maintain the pace? Will there be a new lead hound? Will there be a new lead pack? Perhaps.
@Old_Skeet. I need to understand what you are doing more. I tried doing some sector trading in 2017. I lost a little on many trades, but earned a lot on few trades and was net positive. However, I decided to take a step back and stop. Unfortunately for me my "model" would have had me in XLE from November if I had stuck to it
Frankly, after my recent accident my priorities also changed. BTW, all I turned 50 recently and realized I was 10 pounds overweight. So instead of buying / selling I'm pondering my weight and health right now for a bit.
Hi guys, I bought WAMUX on January 2nd. It's the first small cap fund I've owned in about a year. Also bought some Japan again ..... as long as they have QE, I'll keep buying. God bless the Pudd
@jlev FMIMX might be worth a look too at this point in the market cycle if you are thinking about a long term holding...it currently holds about 20 percent in cash....
Currently helping my in laws rebalance their portfolios. They had no international exposure or bonds. Trying to figure out what the best t rowe price fund/funds to put them in since they have no brokerage window there. A bunch of options I'd put them in typically are closed.
Howdy,
Wifey and I have been at TRP for over 20 years. My rollover IRA is a brokerage account, hers is not.
I've used PREMX and RPIBX forever. Nothing fancy but when I'm advising someone I always lean to the cautious side. I can and have been bat-sh*t crazy with some of my investments but not for others.
Sold XMLV. Checked all the PowerShares low-vol ETFs and found lagging performance over the past six weeks while the overall market has been hot. Mid-caps as measured by IJH have done fine, but XMLV peaked in late November and the trend continues negative. Low-vol may come back when appreciation for risk rears its head.
sold some more DSENX, couldn't help it will buy back, or buy something, later on; this is in a Roth ira bought some PDI bought some SOI, a stock sure to dip now therefore
@Old_Skeet. So I needed single malt in hand as I readed (hic) your post again. Finally I think I understand what you are saying.
So I could go to charting tool and plot all XL? etfs against EQY over last 3 months. And then wait for those ETF chart lines that stick above EQY. As soon as it sticks about EQY I buy. As soon as it sticks below EQY I sell.
Confirm I got it right please. Or I will drink another peg.
@Old_Skeet and @VintageFreak Below is a chart of the mentioned etfs set for the last 64 trading days. What would one do with this charting to define an action? If you choose to change the time frame, right click upon the 64 days box and choose a predefined time. You may also left click and hold the day box to move the 64 days to another time frame. You may also drag the left or right end of the box to create your own time frame. If you hover a pointer/cursor on any line the fund description will appear, perhaps making things easier to detail.
The Market Leadership Strategy always has two holdings with nominal weighting of 50% each. Based on the rankings, one of the positions can be a money market fund. This strategy will buy the top two (2) ranked funds and hold them as long as they are ranked as a top-5 fund. If a holding drops below #5, the strategy will sell it and purchase the highest ranked style not already owned.
To beat the bogey you've got to be in that faster moving sectors of the Index that are beating bogey. In this case EQL. The reason I use the 90 day time frame is that it cuts down on the number trades one makes and the ride seems to be a little longer. I've been with XLY for better than three months as my money hound. You could use the 30 day time frame, as well, but look to make more buys and sell transactions. The 30 day time frame will help you spot trends as they develop. Sometimes they materialize into a 90 day trend and sometimes ... well ... they just don't.
I'll be writing more on the barometer reading along with the 500 Index compass and the global compass over the weekend. There are a couple of new lead pack hounds now found in both compasses as some hounds have begun to falter and pullback as they seemed to have become winded. Perhaps. they will again pick up the pace ... perhaps not. But, my money hounds remain XLY in the 500 Compass and GSP (commodities) in the global compass.
So, check back later this weekend for Old_Skeet's weekly barometer and compass report.
This is Old_Skeet's market barometer report for the weekending January 12, 2018.
Last week, I reported that the 500 Index was overbought with a reading of 134. This week the barometer dropped six more points to a reading of 128 which falls into the extremely overbought area on the scale. With this, it seems investors have been buying in advance of an anticipated strong 4th quarter earnings reporting season. Generally, a lower barometer reading indicates there is less investment value in the Index over a higher reading. Last year the lowest recorded barometer reading took place during the Trump Bump with a reading of 131 for the weekending of 2/24/2017.
For the week short interest for SPY was up from 2.7 days to cover to 2.8 days.
Within the major sectors of the 500 Index the lead pack consisted (as the week ended) of XLE, XLF & XLY. XLK faltered and has now dropped back form lead pack status and was replace by XLF. Within the lead pack my money hound remains XLY (and has been for some time). Back in late fall I put money on the Christmas shopper and with the new tax overhaul package that has recently become law the consumer seems to still be spending.
Within the global compass the lead pack consisted (as the week ended) of GSP, EWJ & VTI. EEM has now begun to falter and was replaced by a new hound VTI. My money hound remains GSP (commodities) and has been for some time. It has had a good run but I'm thinking this might follow a seasonal pattern soon to be ending. I'll stay with it as long as it is a good producer and might declare it a keeper and move it to the speciality sleeve from the spiff sleeve.
I am currently only putting spiff investment money on one hound at a time within each compass as I limit myself to only three open spiffs at any one time within my portfolio. However, another strategy that I have used in the past is to put investment money on each hound found in the lead pack. Since, the lead hound investment strategy is meant to complement other portfolio positions in the form of special investments (aka spiffs) I am at this time investing only in the lead hound strategy. I let my investment remain on the money hound(s) as long as they can maintain lead pack status. Should a money hound began to falter and fall from the lead pack then the investment is closed and a new investment position is opened on another lead hound felt to have good legs. Thus, it becomes my new money hound.
The process, for me, continues until I get tired of watching the hounds run or the investment momentum is lost and I close out the spiffs.
Another strategy listed above by @MikeM known as the Leadership Strategy was used by Old_Skeet for a number of years. I moved away from it because it mostly centers around a a style oriented strategy plus a few other holdings. I favor the sectors of the 500 Index and the holdings of the global compass over it because my strategy takes me back to my days (many years ago) where I'd do some weekend betting at the dog track.
My dog track strategy (years back) was that I'd bet three dogs in most races to win, place or show. This gave me a good number of chances to have a dog, or dogs, place in the money. Generally, I only bet the first eight races as I found the later races harder to pick the money dogs.
Reminder, both the stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Have a good holiday weekend ... and, most of all I wish each of you ... "Good Investing."
Fool phantom thinking about correction and excessive runup coupled to my ever lame timing.
When there is a slump of any sort I will dive back in, or into something like DGRO / DGRW.
I just thought the Santa and early-Jan rallies were good times to, what are the weak phrases, take money off the table, and then return following the 3% slump that is surely upcoming. He said.
No so sure about the fool phantom thinking; they are legit concerns. Every time I try to be proactive it backfires, i'm going to ride this out as long as i can.
My "timing" is atrocious, almost never benefits me.
Comments
Kind of why I like the CAPE strategy of DSENX albeit the opposite strategy. They do do it better than I could.
Thank you for the inquiry.
There are some similarities; but, no I am not copying his strategy.
To view his strategy you can view it by clicking on the below link and this will take you to the Market Leadership Strategy that he post weekly. I'm not sure how he ranks his investment choices or chooses them either. My ranking of assets is purely performance based for a number of time periods. You can build your on compass of assets you select then set them up in Morningstar's Portfolio Manager. The time periods I use to monitor are daily, monthly, quarterly, year-to-date, and one year. My two spiff compasses are composed of the 500 Index sectors and the second is a global compass that follows mostly the world regions (from Xray) plus a few others I selected. Maintaining and following the compasses has helped me better position money within my mutual fund portfolio. Plus, it takes me back to the dog track where I use to (many years ago) put a little spiff on the dogs. My strategy comes from a betting style I used at the dog track where I'd bet three dogs to wins place or show and modified it down to the Pack and Lead Hound Strategy for investment purposes.
Here is the link to Market Leadership Strategy that you referenced.
http://investwithanedge.com/market-leadership-strategy
Your post got me thinking about the comparison between a "leadership" investment style that is proposed by yourself and "Invest-with-an-edge" versus a strategy that really is the opposite, a value strategy seen in DSENX. Very small sample size since DSENX is fairly new, but I can see from the link you attached and from M*'s DSENX performance data that the "buy under-valued sectors" strategy has done much better then "the sectors in favor" strategy. Again, very small amount of data. Both have outperformed the S&P 500 though.
Who knows. That's why I've left it to the fund managers to decide.
Have to go get my Buffalo chicken wings and beer ready for our 1st playoff game in 17 years!!! Some inside tail-gating in this zero degree weather.... GO BILLS.
Regards,
Ted
Current Aggressive Holdings:
TRBCX + 4.12% YTD
QQQ + 3.95% YTD
MSOPX + 3.79% YTD
Frankly, after my recent accident my priorities also changed. BTW, all I turned 50 recently and realized I was 10 pounds overweight. So instead of buying / selling I'm pondering my weight and health right now for a bit.
Let's go back to the 500 Index compass. It is comprised of the major sector etf's. In portfolio manager I follow these tickers plus EQL which is an equally weighted sector etf and serves as my bogey. If you want to beat the bogey you have to be in the sectors performing above the bogey and out of those that trail it. With this I choose the three that are performing the best for the time period I have chossen (usually the three month time frame for the spiff). These three become my lead pack and within the pack there is a lead etf (hound). This etf becomes the spiff "money" hound so to speak and remains the money hound as long as it can remain a member of the lead pack. Sould it falter and unable to keep pace with the pack then the spiff is closed and a new lead hound is choosen with a new spiff being placed. It's a momenutm strategy. I'll be posting weekly on it for a while anyway. After a while it will beome "old news" and the postings will fade.
So follow along ... Let's see how Old_Skeet did in week one.
Week one results. The current lead 90 day hound XLY as the year began had a starting value of $98.69. Thus far it is up 3.13% and remains a lead 90 day pack member. The other two are XLE (up 3.75%) and XLK (up 3.67%) for the week. EQL the bogey hound is up 1.64%. XLB is closing fast on the lead 90 day pack (with XLI & XLF close behind) and might one or more may soon become a pack member of the current lead hounds being removed and perhaps a new lead hound taking over (spiff hound). We want know this until market close Friday the 12th when the weekly results get tabulated.
Starting week two the lead pack remains the same with XLY the spiff hound.
Can XLY maintain the pace? Will there be a new lead hound? Will there be a new lead pack? Perhaps.
So stay tuned.
Frankly, after my recent accident my priorities also changed. BTW, all I turned 50 recently and realized I was 10 pounds overweight. So instead of buying / selling I'm pondering my weight and health right now for a bit.
I bought WAMUX on January 2nd. It's the first small cap fund I've owned in about a year. Also bought some Japan again ..... as long as they have QE, I'll keep buying.
God bless
the Pudd
Regards,
Ted
Wifey and I have been at TRP for over 20 years. My rollover IRA is a brokerage account, hers is not.
I've used PREMX and RPIBX forever. Nothing fancy but when I'm advising someone I always lean to the cautious side. I can and have been bat-sh*t crazy with some of my investments but not for others.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
will buy back, or buy something, later on; this is in a Roth ira
bought some PDI
bought some SOI, a stock sure to dip now therefore
So I could go to charting tool and plot all XL? etfs against EQY over last 3 months. And then wait for those ETF chart lines that stick above EQY. As soon as it sticks about EQY I buy. As soon as it sticks below EQY I sell.
Confirm I got it right please. Or I will drink another peg.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?EQL,XLY,XLE,XLK,XLB,XLI,XLF&p=2&O=011000
http://investwithanedge.com/market-leadership-strategy
Hi guys,
To beat the bogey you've got to be in that faster moving sectors of the Index that are beating bogey. In this case EQL. The reason I use the 90 day time frame is that it cuts down on the number trades one makes and the ride seems to be a little longer. I've been with XLY for better than three months as my money hound. You could use the 30 day time frame, as well, but look to make more buys and sell transactions. The 30 day time frame will help you spot trends as they develop. Sometimes they materialize into a 90 day trend and sometimes ... well ... they just don't.
I'll be writing more on the barometer reading along with the 500 Index compass and the global compass over the weekend. There are a couple of new lead pack hounds now found in both compasses as some hounds have begun to falter and pullback as they seemed to have become winded. Perhaps. they will again pick up the pace ... perhaps not. But, my money hounds remain XLY in the 500 Compass and GSP (commodities) in the global compass.
So, check back later this weekend for Old_Skeet's weekly barometer and compass report.
This is Old_Skeet's market barometer report for the weekending January 12, 2018.
Last week, I reported that the 500 Index was overbought with a reading of 134. This week the barometer dropped six more points to a reading of 128 which falls into the extremely overbought area on the scale. With this, it seems investors have been buying in advance of an anticipated strong 4th quarter earnings reporting season. Generally, a lower barometer reading indicates there is less investment value in the Index over a higher reading. Last year the lowest recorded barometer reading took place during the Trump Bump with a reading of 131 for the weekending of 2/24/2017.
For the week short interest for SPY was up from 2.7 days to cover to 2.8 days.
Within the major sectors of the 500 Index the lead pack consisted (as the week ended) of XLE, XLF & XLY. XLK faltered and has now dropped back form lead pack status and was replace by XLF. Within the lead pack my money hound remains XLY (and has been for some time). Back in late fall I put money on the Christmas shopper and with the new tax overhaul package that has recently become law the consumer seems to still be spending.
Within the global compass the lead pack consisted (as the week ended) of GSP, EWJ & VTI. EEM has now begun to falter and was replaced by a new hound VTI. My money hound remains GSP (commodities) and has been for some time. It has had a good run but I'm thinking this might follow a seasonal pattern soon to be ending. I'll stay with it as long as it is a good producer and might declare it a keeper and move it to the speciality sleeve from the spiff sleeve.
I am currently only putting spiff investment money on one hound at a time within each compass as I limit myself to only three open spiffs at any one time within my portfolio. However, another strategy that I have used in the past is to put investment money on each hound found in the lead pack. Since, the lead hound investment strategy is meant to complement other portfolio positions in the form of special investments (aka spiffs) I am at this time investing only in the lead hound strategy. I let my investment remain on the money hound(s) as long as they can maintain lead pack status. Should a money hound began to falter and fall from the lead pack then the investment is closed and a new investment position is opened on another lead hound felt to have good legs. Thus, it becomes my new money hound.
The process, for me, continues until I get tired of watching the hounds run or the investment momentum is lost and I close out the spiffs.
Another strategy listed above by @MikeM known as the Leadership Strategy was used by Old_Skeet for a number of years. I moved away from it because it mostly centers around a a style oriented strategy plus a few other holdings. I favor the sectors of the 500 Index and the holdings of the global compass over it because my strategy takes me back to my days (many years ago) where I'd do some weekend betting at the dog track.
My dog track strategy (years back) was that I'd bet three dogs in most races to win, place or show. This gave me a good number of chances to have a dog, or dogs, place in the money. Generally, I only bet the first eight races as I found the later races harder to pick the money dogs.
Reminder, both the stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Have a good holiday weekend ... and, most of all I wish each of you ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Matt
When there is a slump of any sort I will dive back in, or into something like DGRO / DGRW.
I just thought the Santa and early-Jan rallies were good times to, what are the weak phrases, take money off the table, and then return following the 3% slump that is surely upcoming. He said.
My "timing" is atrocious, almost never benefits me.
Thanks for your candid response!!