Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
There are several Black Swans that could take us there. China, their banks, raising interest rates in the US and maybe the cause of 2008's rout, being that the toxic loan debt is still there.
Either, or both...depending on what you're looking for.
A lot of dividend payers have been bid up, but some are still attractive. JNJ under 100 is a buy....and HCN got whacked today along with all the other healthcare REITS. I haven't seen that stock in the 50s for awhile. And if PAYX dips below 46, that is also attractive.
As for "dating"? The FANG stocks are looking good if you have that mindset. Not really my cup of tea, as my "gambling" is done as I sit and wait on my one bio from 2 weeks ago.
And....I'm still sitting on cash from my 401K roll over....assiduity at work.
I'm with Delph - I don't see a another Great Depression. Out on the streets, the 'recovery' is actually starting to take place from the ground up. China will muddle through, albeit at a much reduced path of growth. So will we.
However, there is a LOT of blood yet to be spilled folks. The Fed and other CB's have been keeping the equity market inflated via QE - nth. Any attempt to take away the punch bowl will be met with falling equity prices. duh.
A bit of a problem that's coming out of the patch is the financing and who holds the bonds for the tar sands, shale, fracking, etc. industry. This has also been mentioned with regard to the outlying oil producing countries - and who holds their debt. This is perhaps some of the problem facing the European banks. Me thinks they're holding a lot of paper stained with black splotches.
The issue with the election is the high degree of uncertainty. Right now it could very well end up being Trump vs. Sanders. And what is very ironic is that their message is alike in so many ways and their supporters are generally VERY angry with Washington DC. How this anger will shape the dialog will be interesting to see.
As for being the greatest country on earth . . . it takes leaders and they've been a tad scarce lately. Sorry.
As for being the greatest country on earth . . . it takes leaders and they've been a tad scarce lately. Sorry.
That is exactly what I was wondering.
We have great business leaders, we have great technology leaders, etc, etc and yet when it comes to politics, we have to scrape the bottom of the barrel and argue who is not as bad as the other and have them be the butt of jokes and/or the source of incredulity in the rest of the world.
Lowest common denominator, eh? I mostly despair re: politics. It's a society of sheeple. "...If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." ---Thomas Jefferson. ..... It seems to me that the picture wasn't always so bleak. A renewed emphasis on excellence, rather than mere adequacy, must certainly be a big part of the solution.
Lowest common denominator, eh? I mostly despair re: politics. It's a society of sheeple. "...If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." ---Thomas Jefferson. ..... It seems to me that the picture wasn't always so bleak. A renewed emphasis on excellence, rather than mere adequacy, must certainly be a big part of the solution.
I will simplify what you have written a bit. Selecting the preferred presidential candidate from amongst the Republican and Democratic nominating races is as easy as "ABC":
ABC = Anyone But Cruz
All of the candidates in both parties certainly have their warts and their detractors but a Ted Cruz presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. He represents the lunatic fringe of the Republican Party, an evangelical nutcase without any understanding of or respect for the constitutional separation of church and state - one of the most important foundations of this country. He is also the meanest, nastiest, and most destructive person to serve in the Senate in the past 30 years, and that is truly saying something. His entire senatorial career has been to obstruct and destroy - he is an anarchist. Fortunately, he is as hated in the mainstream Republican Party as he is outside of it and I doubt his nomination would attract significant support or money from mainstream Republican sources. Unfortunately, the misanthrope Koch brothers would gladly pick up the financial slack but that is probably where his support would end.
Lowest common denominator, eh? I mostly despair re: politics. It's a society of sheeple. "...If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." ---Thomas Jefferson. ..... It seems to me that the picture wasn't always so bleak. A renewed emphasis on excellence, rather than mere adequacy, must certainly be a big part of the solution.
Since you guys want to talk about politics ... I still believe (as I predicted over a year ago on the board) that we are heading for a Bush-Clinton contest in November culminating in a disputed Florida electoral result that in nastiness will eclipse the mess in 2000. There likely will be other contested states as well.
No crystal ball. Just a confluence of things coming together. Bush has the big money behind him and valuable family connections. In the end I think those will prevail. Hillary also has big money behind her and deep connections. I also think the dems will wake up and realize Bernie's leftist proposals won't fly with voters after the barrage of negative adds the heavily funded Super-PACS would be sure to unleash.
Throw-in the increasing nastiness of our political dialogue, the extreme polarization on both sides and the lack of principles among many of our political leaders and factions and we could be heading for a mess. Florida is perhaps the most polarized state in the country, and don't forget Bush is a Florida boy having served as the state's governor. Sure hope I'm wrong in this prediction.
Is this possibility affecting markets today? I suspect they haven't hypothesized that far out yet. But the uncertainties around the elections might be a factor. Trump is a wild card. No way to predict what he'd do once in office and Bernie's leftist proposals have to be troubling to big business. -
Added: I forgot to mention Bloomberg. He's the real wild card. If he mounts a serious Independent candidacy, self-funded, it would really shake up the election. It sounds like that's in the works. Even if he didn't win (admittedly unlikely) it might affect the choice of candidates by the two parties and would very likely affect the final result. Stay tuned (but turn off his TV channel).
Thank you for the lead-in, Hank. Here is that other comment:
The thing with the Bern is that even if we tax the 1% into street-peopledom, the numbers still don't work. I'm all for doing whatever is possible to re-equalize the national wealth to a more reasonable historic level, but that still won't solve all of our "entitlement" issues.
And I now add: As much as I empathize with the basic positions of Mr. Sanders, there is no way that he is going to win a general election. If he is the Democratic candidate, we will have a Republican president.
Bush has the big money behind him and family connections as well. In the end I think those will prevail. Hillary has the big money behind her and political connections. I also think the dems will wake up and realize Bernie's far left proposals won't fly with voters after a barrage of negative adds the heavily funded PACS would be sure to air.
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Sanders need to go for that to happen.
Then there is still time for some unknown Dem. to get in soon or at a brokered convention (if Hillary indicted for emails).
At this time it is most likely Trump or Cruz Vs Hillary.
Plus he's a cranky gloom-peddler, all woe and pessimism, all corrupt system and corrupt others, little good happening, yada yada, need a revolution. Right. Kinda like the Repubs in that vibe, things are awful, I will improve them somehow. Right.
One of the few redeeming features of our campaigns is in the humor generated. A 3-4 minute SNL skit (preceded by a 30-sec advertisement). Good if you like Larry David or Bernie.
Hank said: "I forgot to mention Bloomberg. He's the real wild card."
For sure.
vkt said: We have great business leaders, we have great technology leaders, etc, etc and yet when it comes to politics, we have to scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Bloomberg would pretty well qualify as a decent political leader, for a change. Nothing in the way of foreign policy experience, but I'd be surprised if he isn't a quick study. A good choice of Secretary of State would be a big help there also.
Hi guys! I've read this thread and I also agree with DlphcOracl and the FIBO numbers. I started following them about a year ago. Beware! They have creedence, and I don't mean Clearwater Revival! '08? I think not. It's just pre-election jitters. Nobody wants to be wrong, so they wait. I have been saying since 2014.....where I work, we have been slowing....things are bad right now.....layoffs are coming.....a 6-week shutdown this summer....... I do think after the elections things will pick up again. It's just your average bear.....Yogi!!!!! That's all. Relax, boys. In a year, we'll party again. God bless the Pudd
What I want to see is President Warren. Perhaps, considering Bernie's age, he'll take Liz as his running mate with the intention of turning it over after one term.
Comments
Considering history, that the question is asked is the puzzling issue.
Tell me, Mo!!
A lot of dividend payers have been bid up, but some are still attractive. JNJ under 100 is a buy....and HCN got whacked today along with all the other healthcare REITS. I haven't seen that stock in the 50s for awhile. And if PAYX dips below 46, that is also attractive.
As for "dating"? The FANG stocks are looking good if you have that mindset. Not really my cup of tea, as my "gambling" is done as I sit and wait on my one bio from 2 weeks ago.
And....I'm still sitting on cash from my 401K roll over....assiduity at work.
I'm with Delph - I don't see a another Great Depression. Out on the streets, the 'recovery' is actually starting to take place from the ground up. China will muddle through, albeit at a much reduced path of growth. So will we.
However, there is a LOT of blood yet to be spilled folks. The Fed and other CB's have been keeping the equity market inflated via QE - nth. Any attempt to take away the punch bowl will be met with falling equity prices. duh.
A bit of a problem that's coming out of the patch is the financing and who holds the bonds for the tar sands, shale, fracking, etc. industry. This has also been mentioned with regard to the outlying oil producing countries - and who holds their debt. This is perhaps some of the problem facing the European banks. Me thinks they're holding a lot of paper stained with black splotches.
The issue with the election is the high degree of uncertainty. Right now it could very well end up being Trump vs. Sanders. And what is very ironic is that their message is alike in so many ways and their supporters are generally VERY angry with Washington DC. How this anger will shape the dialog will be interesting to see.
As for being the greatest country on earth . . . it takes leaders and they've been a tad scarce lately. Sorry.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
We have great business leaders, we have great technology leaders, etc, etc and yet when it comes to politics, we have to scrape the bottom of the barrel and argue who is not as bad as the other and have them be the butt of jokes and/or the source of incredulity in the rest of the world.
It is not like the job doesn't pay well.
http://www.ucg.org/the-good-news/the-life-cycles-of-empires-lessons-for-america-today
http://www.nairaland.com/1494266/fate-empires-sir-john-glubb
I will simplify what you have written a bit. Selecting the preferred presidential candidate from amongst the Republican and Democratic nominating races is as easy as "ABC":
ABC = Anyone But Cruz
All of the candidates in both parties certainly have their warts and their detractors but a Ted Cruz presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. He represents the lunatic fringe of the Republican Party, an evangelical nutcase without any understanding of or respect for the constitutional separation of church and state - one of the most important foundations of this country. He is also the meanest, nastiest, and most destructive person to serve in the Senate in the past 30 years, and that is truly saying something. His entire senatorial career has been to obstruct and destroy - he is an anarchist. Fortunately, he is as hated in the mainstream Republican Party as he is outside of it and I doubt his nomination would attract significant support or money from mainstream Republican sources. Unfortunately, the misanthrope Koch brothers would gladly pick up the financial slack but that is probably where his support would end.
Nothing, again, to be learned from Glubb Pasha and Eric Snow, for heaven's sake.
Find something substantial.
UCG. You must be joking.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Church_of_God
UCG. You must be joking.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Church_of_God
You aren't thirsty?
No crystal ball. Just a confluence of things coming together. Bush has the big money behind him and valuable family connections. In the end I think those will prevail. Hillary also has big money behind her and deep connections. I also think the dems will wake up and realize Bernie's leftist proposals won't fly with voters after the barrage of negative adds the heavily funded Super-PACS would be sure to unleash.
Throw-in the increasing nastiness of our political dialogue, the extreme polarization on both sides and the lack of principles among many of our political leaders and factions and we could be heading for a mess. Florida is perhaps the most polarized state in the country, and don't forget Bush is a Florida boy having served as the state's governor. Sure hope I'm wrong in this prediction.
Is this possibility affecting markets today? I suspect they haven't hypothesized that far out yet. But the uncertainties around the elections might be a factor. Trump is a wild card. No way to predict what he'd do once in office and Bernie's leftist proposals have to be troubling to big business.
-
Added: I forgot to mention Bloomberg. He's the real wild card. If he mounts a serious Independent candidacy, self-funded, it would really shake up the election. It sounds like that's in the works. Even if he didn't win (admittedly unlikely) it might affect the choice of candidates by the two parties and would very likely affect the final result. Stay tuned (but turn off his TV channel).
The thing with the Bern is that even if we tax the 1% into street-peopledom, the numbers still don't work. I'm all for doing whatever is possible to re-equalize the national wealth to a more reasonable historic level, but that still won't solve all of our "entitlement" issues.
And I now add: As much as I empathize with the basic positions of Mr. Sanders, there is no way that he is going to win a general election. If he is the Democratic candidate, we will have a Republican president.
Then there is still time for some unknown Dem. to get in soon or at a brokered convention (if Hillary indicted for emails).
At this time it is most likely Trump or Cruz Vs Hillary.
A 3-4 minute SNL skit (preceded by a 30-sec advertisement). Good if you like Larry David or Bernie.
http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/02/06/watch-bernie-sanders-appears-in-snl-skit-alongside-larry-david-talks-democratic-socialism/
For sure.
vkt said: We have great business leaders, we have great technology leaders, etc, etc and yet when it comes to politics, we have to scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Bloomberg would pretty well qualify as a decent political leader, for a change. Nothing in the way of foreign policy experience, but I'd be surprised if he isn't a quick study. A good choice of Secretary of State would be a big help there also.
I've read this thread and I also agree with DlphcOracl and the FIBO numbers. I started following them about a year ago. Beware! They have creedence, and I don't mean Clearwater Revival! '08? I think not. It's just pre-election jitters. Nobody wants to be wrong, so they wait. I have been saying since 2014.....where I work, we have been slowing....things are bad right now.....layoffs are coming.....a 6-week shutdown this summer.......
I do think after the elections things will pick up again. It's just your average bear.....Yogi!!!!! That's all. Relax, boys. In a year, we'll party again.
God bless
the Pudd
What I want to see is President Warren. Perhaps, considering Bernie's age, he'll take Liz as his running mate with the intention of turning it over after one term.
Works for me,
peace,
rono