Decided to make a quick exit from CNQ and took profit, as I guess my view is that if (or once) the current Middle East geopolitical tension calms down, oil prices are back to square one and COP remains my core holding in terms of energy.
""The spike in oil prices caused by the Saudi military incursions into Yemen, has all the hallmarks of a classic knee jerk market reaction," Michael Hewson, the chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said in a morning note.
"We saw similar spikes last year with Ukraine, Libya and ISIS pushing into Iraq before markets settled back down again, and it is likely that these concerns about Yemen could follow a similar pattern."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102539919Took profit the other day on AMGN, which had run up quickly.
Added to UNP. Layered into CELG.
Sold part of RIMIX, moved into TRAOX.
Sold part of PRHSX, moved that into PRDGX.
Comments
I sold off my special equity position (spiff) that I open last October with a gain of a little better than eight percent plus dividends. This reduced my equity allocation by about five percent and raised my cash position by a like amount.
In addition, I have added a little to SGGDX, PGUAX and AJVAX. I am likening Europe and emerging markets due to valuations.
Currently my asset allocation for my portfolio is about 20% cash, 20% income, 55% equity and 5% other as determined from a recent Xray analysis. Within equities I am about two thirds domestic and one third foreign.
I am thinking that a good pull back in the markets might be forthcoming in the near term as we enter 1Q2015 earnings reporting season. And, if so, I will do some select buying. Perhaps, I might even open another special equity position (spiff) if the pullback goes deep enough and somewhere back of 1900 on the S&P 500 Index. I am also thinking that the back half of the year will be better than the front as excess in domestic stock market valuations are worked off.
A spiff is a sum paid for good performance. I call my special investment positions spiffs because if my thinking is good then I receive a spiff from Mr. Market.
I love getting spiffs.
Old_Skeet
Why do I still own PSPFX? I've given these guys enough time to get back into the swing of things. Out they go. Not sure if I will stick the proceeds into PCRDX to keep my stake in commodities or try to put it more into the international/value side of the house where I am a bit out of balance now.
Also thinking of selling some PRPFX, I still like the fund concept but their execution as of late hasn't been great.
And for that matter, FDIVX, there appears to be better international funds out there. I have not been paying attention to my portfolio lately :-/
PSPFX's manager is actually public (symbol: GROW). It was $33 at the height of energy prices in 2007, it's now $3 and change.
Keep in mind when you buy PCRDX, it's essentially buying a commodity futures index,not commodity stocks like PSPFX.
I hope it will turn around and I think the thing becomes this: the parent is a public company whose shares are a fraction of what they were several years ago. I would think that there is some pressure there to try and make some changes in order to make the funds actually attract AUM and therefore improve the stock price - or at least one would think so.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm?tickersymbol=ALLY-B&sopt=symbol
I am quite content to sit for a bit, but I think the divi payers who are down a fair amount ytd deserve some love, specifically Chevron and P&G.
The below is relative to price trends, tempered by what we think we know, from what we think we see. The most dangerous proposition for an investor; but likely the best we have to work with, eh? We are gamblers, yes?
This doesn't always flow as planned, of course; and I may call this "investors lament"
The least amount of time we would hope to be involved with the investment is 6 months for a meaningful outcome for the overall portfolio.
A five percent allocation in the pure form, would provide 20 pieces of investment areas/sectors, eh? One must suspect this would bring forth as much diversification as is needed, yes? One's own fund of funds, be they individual stocks, etf's, cef's or active managed funds.
'Course, as noted; the plan does not always end in this fashion over a period of months. Things change and price trends begin and end in various sectors.
India, China, Europe, broadbased U.S. for areas; energy, broad commodity, bio/healthcare, for a few sectors; continue to be monitored.
These are obviously only equity related. Bonds can be as rewarding in their various sectors, too.
Where this house is at today with equity:
---65% equity, with the below mix:
--- 35% healthcare/bio
--- 15% broadbased U.S. (VTI, ITOT types)
--- 12% Europe
--- 8.5% real estate, U.S.
Well, anyway; my 2 cents worth, as reported from the trenches.
Lastly, our house always hopes that we remain more rational and less distorted than the market places into which we invest !!!
Take care,
Catch
Stocks: BAC, AIG, HCP, OAK, AA
Funds: FAAFX, SIGIX, DODGX, DODBX, DODFX
Basically, remain all in.
Unsteady as she goes.
Starting to think of BAC like FAAFX...another Great Pumpkin holding.
I will ask, and of course, you may tell me to "buzz off"; but what is your attraction to Bank of America?
I will note that I have not ever considered BAC as a direct holding; although I suppose it is somewhere among our broadbased etf holdings of equity stuff, by the choice of others.
Thank you and regards.
Catch
As an example I'll direct your attention to my 3 recent purchases. PM has been taken to the woodshed recently for issues as far as I can see that only relate to currency valuations whatever that means. I expect that they will continue to pay me a 5% dividend, that they will continue to increase that dividend as they have for years on end and that others will continue to pay more for the right to get that consistent dividend payment.
I bought DTV because they are merging with AT&T (T) and I wanted to have a chunk of stodgy old AT&T's dividend payout. I'll receive that when the merger is consummated along with a large handful of cash which I can direct wherever I wish including more T. Buying DTV provided a better value than buying T outright.
My last purchase was GILD which is not throwing off any income at this time but intends to do so. Although it's initial payout will be less than my usual minimum search criteria of 3.5% I expect that it will increase with time. I also expect that it's recent hiccup to the downside in relation to that squiggly price line thing to settle out in my favor once all this bubble talk falls off the radar. If not, there are other healthcare related stocks that I can direct my attention toward.
WAFMX holdings are 7% Latin America, and 45% Africa (almost half of that in Nigeria and Kenya). Nigeria is oil dependent, and consumer products are import dependent; with low price of oil and high exchange rate, this might dead money for some time. I don't see the frontier countries in Asia making up for Africa and Latin America.
Similar story with AEMSX with Latin America (20%), Emerging Europe 13% (mostly Russia and Turkey), and about 5% Africa.
With respect to my spiffs:
I think in terms of how much I have to take in the form of a retirement distribution I need form my portfolio on a quarterly basis. Some quarters are more than others. My two biggest quarters are the fourth and first of each year.
In some quarters, I have been able to satisfy my quarterly distribution requirements just from profits received form my special investment positions (spiffs).
I don’t look so much as how much the spiffs contribute to portfolio overall but I look at how the profits from my spiffs are satisfying my quarterly income needs. For example the profit received form my October opening spiff, that you recently commented about, paid more than half of my first quarter 2015 distribution needs.
I love collecting spiffs ... and, I plan to keep making these special investment positions from time-to-time because the way I look at it ... it is free money Mr. Market pays me for my good thinking. If my thinking is bad I'll close a spiff out if the position has moved 15% against me from its opening.
I like to play small ball so-to-speak and have a string of singles and doubles that advance the base runner(s) and if the long ball does come then that is a bonus.
I wish you the very best with your investments.
Old_Skeet
A dream I have