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Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
Added to ECL, CP and EPD. EPD just announced an increased div (41st consecutive quarterly div increase.) EPD also offers a 5% discount in terms of dividend reinvestment (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=80547&p=irol-drip). Added to GAINX, RIMIX, PRHSX.
LOL - We hopes you're right getting in now. Kinda bruised and battered here. Going to wait a while longer before dumping any cash.
PS - We already shot self in one foot with some recent dollar averaging into the falling NR & Commodities areas. And still got one foot left which I'd like to hang on to for a while longer
I have been looking at sweeping profits. I did some this past summer. ARYVX has been very good so I plan to take advantage of that plus it could be a fund that holds up in a bear market to a certain extent if I'm not mistaken so I'll keep some money in it.
@Old_Joe, ACMVX has been a winner for me and I read something recently that mid-cap value funds recover very quickly in a bear scenario.
Hi guys! Buying very little.....healthcare MLP and S&P 500. Methinks there's more to come. Market went down big at the end of the day. Next week could be bad, yet a Bradley turn is soon due...that could help (lol). Dennis Gartman says Euro is doomed. I wonder if that's in yen terms....or not. All my friends have been saying we need a correction. Then, when it comes, they're crying asking what I think. I say, "You're lucky. Not many people get what they ask for." So many tears for so little..... down side: the new reality is coming as the Fed pulls away. Party Smart! the Pudd
Patience Grasshopper. From my calculations, the S&P500 is only off 5.6% from it's high. Barely a pull back.
I transferred most of my 401k to an IRA back in August and told myself I would DCA equal amounts to be fully invested in my planned portfolio by end of Nov. I haven't followed the plan well so only about 30% invested right now, 70% to go. So, a bigger pullback would be much appreciated.
I still think the small and mid-cap energy E&P stocks look attractive at these levels. Unless you believe that the world's population and energy demands are going to significantly decrease over the next 2-3 years these stocks should be profitable investments. If you believe that we have an energy/oil/natural gas glut and oversupply and price of WTI is headed significantly lower (well below $80) ignore my post.
Stocks to consider: WLL, EOG, CLR, SN. The latter is more interesting as an attractive target for a buy-out from a mid-cap.
Since, I am currently holding about 15% cash plus about another 5% that is held within mutual funds within my portfolio ... according to my last M*’s Instant Xray… I did a little more buying this past week due to stocks having now moved beyond a dip and into a pull back range based upon my definitions. A dip would be a drop in value of up to five percent while a pull back would be a drop in value form five to ten percent range. Beyond that comes a down draft which would be a drop in value form the ten to fifteen percent range and a correction would be a drop in value form fifteen percent to twenty percent range and then beyond twenty percent would be classified a recession.
Currently, the S&P 500 Index is at about its 200 day moving average (1906) and has moved into pull back classification. According to Morningstar’s Market Valuation stocks in general are now selling at about a four percent discount. In checking another source the S&P 500 Index is selling at a TTM P/E Ratio of 18.6 and on forward estimates at 15.8.
With this, should there be some good earnings announcements forthcoming then the traditional fall stock market rally might just be around the corner. I hope so because I have now spent down about 2% of my cash in anticipation of the traditional rally by increasing some of the positions that hold equities within my portfolio. I have now bought during this decline at the S&P 500 Index 1970's and 1920's ranges with my next buy step targeted at S&P 1870 range should the Index pull back to this mark. If not, then I'll continue to hold at present asset allocation levels.
I wish all a good weekend … and, most of all good investing.
I am pondering the Zweig approach(Martin not Jason) .Sell when the market (or a stock ) drops 10 or 15% (your choice) by back when the market or stock is up 10 or 15% from the bottom. It is possible to get whipsawed but at last it gets you back in at a reasonable level (below the recent high)Obviously it works best when there are big drops which I am not rooting for.
I am pondering the Zweig approach(Martin not Jason) .Sell when the market (or a stock ) drops 10 or 15% (your choice) by back when the market or stock is up 10 or 15% from the bottom. It is possible to get whipsawed but at last it gets you back in at a reasonable level (below the recent high)Obviously it works best when there are big drops which I am not rooting for.
Considering adding COG, REXX, CLF in one area; in another, ACHN, ARWR, DVAX, XOMA; OUTR in a third. All worth smart dd if you are in speculative mood. May buy more PDI on next dip.
Considering adding COG, REXX, CLF in one area; in another, ACHN, ARWR, DVAX, XOMA; OUTR in a third. All worth smart dd if you are in speculative mood. May buy more PDI on next dip.
Thoughts on CLV (the convertible pfd) vs CLF? I'm not in the mood to be very speculative, but I agree with you on OUTR, which shows that there are some values in this market. I use funds for anything healthcare/pharma. All interesting picks.
For those interested here is what I found on the Zweig approach that Jerry referenced in his post above. It is linked below for your reading enjoyment.
I still think the small and mid-cap energy E&P stocks look attractive at these levels. Unless you believe that the world's population and energy demands are going to significantly decrease over the next 2-3 years these stocks should be profitable investments. If you believe that we have an energy/oil/natural gas glut and oversupply and price of WTI is headed significantly lower (well below $80) ignore my post.
Stocks to consider: WLL, EOG, CLR, SN. The latter is more interesting as an attractive target for a buy-out from a mid-cap.
Watching energy prices over decades, they move in huge swings. So, a quick turnaround is unlikely. Agree that 2-3 years is a reasonable wait time. If you believe the general stock market pricy, than the losses in energy may not be great in comparison.
With food, energy or lumber, most of us can relate to prices from experience. But I can't tell you what a IPad is really worth. Aside from the developmental costs and proprietary knowledge imbedded, it's worth a tiny fraction of its $500-$1000 price (depending on model) - being largely a chunk of plastic and glass.
We heat with LP (liquified petroleum gas) in Michigan. Right now it's around $2 a gallon - a bargain. Last winter got up to $5 and a few winters earlier approached $7 or $8 . So ... I have a sense of the value of something like that. And at under $3 for gas at the pump, don't you think folks will drive more, shift to larger cars and SUVSs and stop car pooling? Energy often overshoots on the downside and than self-corrects after supply & demand level out.
Bought VIG and small positions in LUK and BWEL. Plannning to keep powder dry, but may buy some VEU and some more VIG in the coming weeks. May add to FAAFX when Fannie/Freddie and Sears prices show signs of stabilizing. Waiting for a 'whoosh' down for some individual stocks.
@scott: Thanks. I live in rich suburbs where 2-3-4 wealthy friends are venture types, HNW investors, small-firm boutique money managers, and/or investment bankers. Sometimes I foolishly, and not always foolishly, follow their advice. I made a lot of money (for me) trading RWT that way in the past, and may do so again. Have lost nontrivial amounts as well. These pharms and gas/oil I listed are their latest tips and beloveds, volatile of course, where volatile = hammered. CLF and OUTR came from still other contacts in the know, supposedly. PDI trading is my own idea (unoriginal ).
Still like APA. Just oil continues to plunge. Hopefully, can get back in later time.
OAK div now approaching 7%. Hard to resist. Hopefully, I am not stunk reaching for yield.
If oil continues to slump. And Europe. May look to offload GE (again). Hopefully, that decision can wait until after it announces earnings Friday. Will see.
I should have added, as a note of caution, that BWEL is very thinly traded OTC. I guess that you may be aware of this but others on the board may not. The BWEL book "King of California" is a great read.
Still like APA. Just oil continues to plunge. Hopefully, can get back in later time.
OAK div now approaching 7%. Hard to resist. Hopefully, I am not stunk reaching for yield.
If oil continues to slump. And Europe. May look to offload GE (again). Hopefully, that decision can wait until after it announces earnings Friday. Will see.
Keep in mind OAK has a variable dividend. It may be lower and may be higher (as high as 10%+) from quarter-to-quarter. All of the private equity MLPs are variable yield.
I added a little to OAK and BX, as the latter is spinning off its advisory services into a new co.
Energy is on sale, especially the dividend payers (majors, energy infrastructure.) If I can buy EPD yielding 4%, plus a 5% discount on DRIP, I'm happy to wait.
@Scott, what do you think of the drillers (ESV, RIG, etc.) as dividend-paying energy stocks?
I think you may have to wait a while for an upswing to business, but if things don't get much worse and you get a leveling off, some of them are interesting. I mean, look at SDRL's price at this point after the last 3mo.
I don't own any and they aren't real high on my list, but if I were, I'd look at SDRL and not in any great size. Personally, I'm more the slow, consistent and steady dividend payers (some of the biggest MLPs, some of the largest oil majors) - SDRL has an enormous dividend yield but hopefully that's sustainable (the company has a highly shareholder-friendly dividend policy, but the dividend may also vary significantly and may not be there if things get worse) and the stock is highly volatile.
If SDRL was to drop its dividend or lessen it substantially, the stock could fall further from here. If things level out or improve, nice potential. I do think you have to have a long-term view as things aren't improving tomorrow.
I do think a lot of oil stocks (including the Canadians - SU, CNQ, etc) are on sale. I don't like to go foo far out on the risk scale and keep to the largest, but you have oil companies down 15-20-25+% and a number approaching 52 wk lows.
Comments
I'm eyeing some energy stocks and other commodity stocks, maybe ESV or BBL, since I think they can support their dividends until prices pick up again.
Done for now; will wait for year-end distributions (and subsequent re-balancing).
That should ensure a market drop of at least 30%, creating a great buying opportunity for all of the rest of you folks. You're welcome!
PS - We already shot self in one foot with some recent dollar averaging into the falling NR & Commodities areas. And still got one foot left which I'd like to hang on to for a while longer
@Old_Joe, ACMVX has been a winner for me and I read something recently that mid-cap value funds recover very quickly in a bear scenario.
Buying very little.....healthcare MLP and S&P 500. Methinks there's more to come. Market went down big at the end of the day. Next week could be bad, yet a Bradley turn is soon due...that could help (lol). Dennis Gartman says Euro is doomed. I wonder if that's in yen terms....or not. All my friends have been saying we need a correction. Then, when it comes, they're crying asking what I think. I say, "You're lucky. Not many people get what they ask for." So many tears for so little..... down side: the new reality is coming as the Fed pulls away.
Party Smart!
the Pudd
I transferred most of my 401k to an IRA back in August and told myself I would DCA equal amounts to be fully invested in my planned portfolio by end of Nov. I haven't followed the plan well so only about 30% invested right now, 70% to go. So, a bigger pullback would be much appreciated.
- thank you Old_Joe for trying to help out
Stocks to consider: WLL, EOG, CLR, SN. The latter is more interesting as an attractive target for a buy-out from a mid-cap.
Since, I am currently holding about 15% cash plus about another 5% that is held within mutual funds within my portfolio ... according to my last M*’s Instant Xray… I did a little more buying this past week due to stocks having now moved beyond a dip and into a pull back range based upon my definitions. A dip would be a drop in value of up to five percent while a pull back would be a drop in value form five to ten percent range. Beyond that comes a down draft which would be a drop in value form the ten to fifteen percent range and a correction would be a drop in value form fifteen percent to twenty percent range and then beyond twenty percent would be classified a recession.
Currently, the S&P 500 Index is at about its 200 day moving average (1906) and has moved into pull back classification. According to Morningstar’s Market Valuation stocks in general are now selling at about a four percent discount. In checking another source the S&P 500 Index is selling at a TTM P/E Ratio of 18.6 and on forward estimates at 15.8.
With this, should there be some good earnings announcements forthcoming then the traditional fall stock market rally might just be around the corner. I hope so because I have now spent down about 2% of my cash in anticipation of the traditional rally by increasing some of the positions that hold equities within my portfolio. I have now bought during this decline at the S&P 500 Index 1970's and 1920's ranges with my next buy step targeted at S&P 1870 range should the Index pull back to this mark. If not, then I'll continue to hold at present asset allocation levels.
I wish all a good weekend … and, most of all good investing.
Old_Skeet
not
On a whim, I am pondering buying FNMA. That would be kind of like a hard-way bet at the dice table.
May buy more PDI on next dip.
http://theguruinvestor.com/2014/09/11/great-pages-zweigs-shotgun-approach/#more-13429
With food, energy or lumber, most of us can relate to prices from experience. But I can't tell you what a IPad is really worth. Aside from the developmental costs and proprietary knowledge imbedded, it's worth a tiny fraction of its $500-$1000 price (depending on model) - being largely a chunk of plastic and glass.
We heat with LP (liquified petroleum gas) in Michigan. Right now it's around $2 a gallon - a bargain. Last winter got up to $5 and a few winters earlier approached $7 or $8 . So ... I have a sense of the value of something like that. And at under $3 for gas at the pump, don't you think folks will drive more, shift to larger cars and SUVSs and stop car pooling? Energy often overshoots on the downside and than self-corrects after supply & demand level out.
@scott:
Thanks. I live in rich suburbs where 2-3-4 wealthy friends are venture types, HNW investors, small-firm boutique money managers, and/or investment bankers. Sometimes I foolishly, and not always foolishly, follow their advice. I made a lot of money (for me) trading RWT that way in the past, and may do so again. Have lost nontrivial amounts as well. These pharms and gas/oil I listed are their latest tips and beloveds, volatile of course, where volatile = hammered.
CLF and OUTR came from still other contacts in the know, supposedly.
PDI trading is my own idea (unoriginal
Still like APA. Just oil continues to plunge. Hopefully, can get back in later time.
OAK div now approaching 7%. Hard to resist. Hopefully, I am not stunk reaching for yield.
If oil continues to slump. And Europe. May look to offload GE (again). Hopefully, that decision can wait until after it announces earnings Friday. Will see.
I added a little to OAK and BX, as the latter is spinning off its advisory services into a new co.
Energy is on sale, especially the dividend payers (majors, energy infrastructure.) If I can buy EPD yielding 4%, plus a 5% discount on DRIP, I'm happy to wait.
I don't own any and they aren't real high on my list, but if I were, I'd look at SDRL and not in any great size. Personally, I'm more the slow, consistent and steady dividend payers (some of the biggest MLPs, some of the largest oil majors) - SDRL has an enormous dividend yield but hopefully that's sustainable (the company has a highly shareholder-friendly dividend policy, but the dividend may also vary significantly and may not be there if things get worse) and the stock is highly volatile.
If SDRL was to drop its dividend or lessen it substantially, the stock could fall further from here. If things level out or improve, nice potential. I do think you have to have a long-term view as things aren't improving tomorrow.
I do think a lot of oil stocks (including the Canadians - SU, CNQ, etc) are on sale. I don't like to go foo far out on the risk scale and keep to the largest, but you have oil companies down 15-20-25+% and a number approaching 52 wk lows.