Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I had bought VZICX (International blend) a while ago and sold it for a gain but that was a mistake as it's still doing fine. I added it back into my holdings. These rotations last longer than I think they will OR it'll start heading down tomorrow. ;^) Maybe I'll leave it alone now until the dollar starts heading up.
Bought a new position in EISIX and got to thinking about India like rforno posted. But haven't made that leap yet, being very heavy in EM already, though that's mostly in debt.
Bought a new position in EISIX and got to thinking about India like rforno posted. But haven't made that leap yet, being very heavy in EM already, though that's mostly in debt.
What are your go-tos for EM debt? I'm leaning towards EMD or FEMB at the moment.
FBP has lately been too volatile for me. Last week it was up over 7% in a day. Then, splat, way down. And today? Up +5.22%. I am indeed in the black here, but these gyrations have brought me to a decision: when I reach a 10% profit, I'll be out. I'm already +8.29% to the good. It's a wild ride. Today was the 4Q Earnings report. Non-GAAP EPS beat, .55 cents vs. estimate of .50 cents. I guess banks don't typically use the GAAP standard?
Nevertheless, the stock is rated a BUY at Schwab--- ranked at 11, a hair below the top-performing tier. Also a STRONG BUY at CFRA, BUY at ARGUS, Market Edge, LSEG. Yet, I know how much my tummy can tolerate.
Bought a new position in EISIX and got to thinking about India like rforno posted. But haven't made that leap yet, being very heavy in EM already, though that's mostly in debt.
What are your go-tos for EM debt? I'm leaning towards EMD or FEMB at the moment.
Dedicated exposure: EADOX. Broader mandates but heavily into EMs these days: APDPX, EAGMX, EGRAX. I haven't owned any of the etf/cef lineup for a long time; never had much luck with them, but then the dollar tanking is a relatively new phenomenon favoring all foreign assets, for the first time really in ~ 20 years during Bush II's reign.
In the IRA: Sold FLOT. I'm not seeing the need for a floater at the present time. And it's not doing anything better than some other things I'm holding. So I will replace it with NRDCX.
OSTIX and HSDIX are under scrutiny on the sell side of the IRA. GLIFX and FFGCX are under scrutiny on the buy side. The latter two have come untethered from the 500 in the last year or two. Both are still at reasonable valuations, though not cheap.
I looked at FIUIX too, but the utes aren't even reasonable, and I think they are still caught up in the AI story.
Nothing shaking in the taxable but the leaves on the trees. Recent purchases of IDOG and EISIX are making me happy so far. M* is on the fritz this morning so no gory details.
02 Feb, '26: Emptied the account of all FBP for a 10% profit on a day when it was zooming upward. Proceeds are destined for EWJV (iShares Japan Value.) The limit order is in. Surely it'll fall now, and stay there. Kiss of death. There's a snap election in Japan on Feb 8th. We'll see whether Takaichi is able to implement her plans. Debt to GDP is atrociously high. She wants to juice the economy, though: stimulus. *...And I'm IN, at $42.49.
In the IRA: Sold OSTIX. Proceeds will be split among ALVIX, FMIEX, EISIX, FMILX, and a new position in GLIFX. At the present time I plan to limit my number of equity/sector funds to five. We shall see how that goes. However, reinvesting the proceeds from OSTIX will only get me to around 18-20% equity. So more shoes will be dropping in the future.
Exchanged (COB today) some LC Index and total market index in my 401K for INTL and SMID. About 4% of my total portfolio. Sold some PFN (wish I had waited until today), for eventual re-allocation to PDI. Not a huge amount. Minor adjustments really.
This is why I am not increasing my equity allocation, and have been de-risking. I share that concern. I was worried before Dotcom and GFC, but failed to act. There is always a good argument in either direction. But, I have learned to trust my gut instinct. Letting fear overcome greed, curiosity and even hunger, is how the caveman avoids getting eaten by the saber-toothed tiger.
Buying VEA on the dip with gradual selling of VOO and PRWCX. Otherwise, we have been adding NRDCX , PYLD, and cash.
@WABAC, we are reducing junk bond, PRFRX lately. Still evaluating OSTIX.
Since I bought OSTIX last fall they've been shortening their duration. But maybe not enough for the climate we're in now. Anyway, with CBLDX, and now NRDCX, in the fold I just don't feel the need for it right now. Maybe some day.
I have also been considering downsizing PRWCX to a toehold. That would leave FMILX as the main source of exposure to tech in the IRA. That's fine with me. I've enough tech in the taxable to keep me happy.
We have been swapping US stocks for oversea stocks to diversify away from Mag 7 and AI stocks. My exposure to tech is through S&P 500 index for a number of years now. PRWCX made a sizable and late change toward Mag 7 stocks. Between the two, i chose the cheaper fund to cover tech sector. In addition, i am consolidating funds as i approach retirement. Goal is to have less a a dozen funds in a year from now.
On the bond end, we hope OSTIX will improve this year even though it trailed junk last year. David Sherman’s new fund, NRDCX excelled last year (much better than i anticipated). Pairing it with DODLX, my oversea bond funds are doing very well comparing to BNDX as the benchmark.
One week into a new "all-stock" basket I added the final 2 components today, bringing the total holdings to 20. You don't have to be nuts to do this, but it helps. And the entire basket is a bit less than 5% of portfolio. Most are mid-cap and the lower range of large cap, the names not widely known. My theory here is that the rush into the S&P and precious metals by momentum investors may have created some opportunities in some lesser known names. Today's buys were: CNP, a Texas utility recommended by David Giroux's in the Barron's roundtable and SSNC, a provider of software / accounting services to fund houses and others (also a Barron's roundtable recommendation). 5 of the 20 are outside the U.S. including RCI, a Canadian communications / cable provider which just happens to own Rogers Center in Toronto where I've spent some time. They also own the Toronto Blue Jays who play there. I have a great tracking app that makes this feasible. 17 of the 20 are supported by Fido's "basket" feature. 3 (ADRs) are not supported - but that's not a serious detriment.
Re: RCI, I have owned and then sold Rogers' rival, Bell Canada. (BCE.) It went nowhere, basically. A real stinker. I believe you made the better choice. I've been to Rogers Centre a couple of times, myself. Toronto is fun. Its airport in Mississauga is a thorny, cruddy stinky poopy place. My experience there was singularly awful, both coming and going.
@WABAC: I still have large positions in OSTIX and CBLDX; thinking about reducing the former. I could see room for NRDCX given its decent start. For the last several weeks I have been replacing some equity ETFs with ORR, especially on down days. I'm hopeful that ORR can continue its success in beating the broader market and that it might provide some cushion when the air goes out of the balloon.
@WABAC: I still have large positions in OSTIX and CBLDX; thinking about reducing the former. I could see room for NRDCX given its decent start. For the last several weeks I have been replacing some equity ETFs with ORR, especially on down days. I'm hopeful that ORR can continue its success in beating the broader market and that it might provide some cushion when the air goes out of the balloon.
I bought BRGOX for the chance to make money on those down days, along with QMNNX. Hold a starter in ORR as well.
As for NRDCX, it's ok. APDPX had been outperforming until recently.
@JD_co: I haven't paid much attention to Bridgeway in recent years, but in checking the M* Parent tab on BRGOX I see that the firm has been hemorrhaging assets for the past few years.
AQR has some impressive alternative funds. I looked at QLEIX but passed on it because TF at Schwab makes incremental buying too dear. I much prefer the ETF. As for ORR, it will be hard to predict what the tax bill might be at year-end.
@WABAC: I still have large positions in OSTIX and CBLDX; thinking about reducing the former. I could see room for NRDCX given its decent start. For the last several weeks I have been replacing some equity ETFs with ORR, especially on down days. I'm hopeful that ORR can continue its success in beating the broader market and that it might provide some cushion when the air goes out of the balloon.
ORR, as in the long/short fund? I like to see performance since COVID, at least. I also have a really hard time paying an ER of 14.9% for a return of 6.35% YTD. It's not hard to find foreign value funds churning that out, or more.
It might also be the case that I have an unreasonable fear of products like long/short funds that seem too complicated to me. DIVO is about as complex as I can handle. And it's in the taxable, not the IRA.
As for NRCDX, it is an exception to the rule I stated above. However, I think I understand the market they're buying and selling in. So I'm comfortable with it as part of the IRA. It's too late to try and shoot the lights out there. I just need it to bubble along until I have to take distros.
Quick update. Yesterday I bought 2 stocks. Both Barron's roundtable pick:
CNP (David Giroux's pick) is ahead today about +2%. But SSNC (Scott Black's pick) is having its worst day in about 6 months. Off - 8% on the day, approaching its April low.
Moral of story - Stick with Giroux.
And who said, "Timing is everything" ?
Addendum: I don't just buy picks blindly based on someone's pick. I did read up on both of above and examine the charts. So take the remark about Black with a grain of salt! The guy's been around forever ISTM.
@WABAC: I agree about the apparent elevated ER of ORR. The manager posted a very cogent explanation on the Militia Capital website, pointing out that the real ER is in line with other active strategies. Lack of track record for the ETF bothered me but I overlooked it in favor of the impressive investment returns of Mr. ORR prior to his starting the public fund. Tom Lee's endorsement, via our man Snowball, also deserved consideration.
RE: SSNC - Most software is getting hammered, and has been since the beginning of the year. Some think due to AI. I have a few that are getting under my skin: TRI, ADBE & AVGO.
@WABAC: I agree about the apparent elevated ER of ORR. The manager posted a very cogent explanation on the Militia Capital website, pointing out that the real ER is in line with other active strategies. Lack of track record for the ETF bothered me but I overlooked it in favor of the impressive investment returns of Mr. ORR prior to his starting the public fund. Tom Lee's endorsement, via our man Snowball, also deserved consideration.
What is the real ER?
I remember Tom Lee as one of the better writers at M*. Maybe if I understood what sets long/short funds apart from other types I might be more willing to look at them. But I haven't noticed that they behave all that differently in some unique way. It's possible I could be educated; possible.
"I remember Tom Lee as one of the better writers at M*."
Tom Lee is a Wall Street strategist who co-founded Fundstrat Global Advisors. You may be thinking of Sam Lee who was at Morningstar before founding Severian Asset Management.
"I remember Tom Lee as one of the better writers at M*."
Tom Lee is a Wall Street strategist who co-founded Fundstrat Global Advisors. You may be thinking of Sam Lee who was at Morningstar before founding Severian Asset Management.
RE: SSNC - Most software is getting hammered, and has been since the beginning of the year. Some think due to AI. I have a few that are getting under my skin: TRI, ADBE & AVGO.
Thanks @DrVenture. SSNC is probably the first tech stock I've ever bought. Will hang tight since it's only 1/20 th of the stock basket. But just to show how perfect my timing was ... It finished today down -10.6% just a day after buying it. It's now barely above the low it touched on Liberation Day in April! Wow. Pretty impressive pick. Fortunately this isn't the rent money.
BTW - I've heard the similar "AI" rationale while listening to Bloomberg today. Good luck with those picks you mentioned.
@hank : After reading your comment above I feel you need to play more in the NBA contests. Good luck & wish you the best on your new basket. FWIW, Derf
Comments
Non-GAAP EPS beat, .55 cents vs. estimate of .50 cents. I guess banks don't typically use the GAAP standard?
Nevertheless, the stock is rated a BUY at Schwab--- ranked at 11, a hair below the top-performing tier. Also a STRONG BUY at CFRA, BUY at ARGUS, Market Edge, LSEG. Yet, I know how much my tummy can tolerate.
4.17% short. Too much!
OSTIX and HSDIX are under scrutiny on the sell side of the IRA. GLIFX and FFGCX are under scrutiny on the buy side. The latter two have come untethered from the 500 in the last year or two. Both are still at reasonable valuations, though not cheap.
I looked at FIUIX too, but the utes aren't even reasonable, and I think they are still caught up in the AI story.
Nothing shaking in the taxable but the leaves on the trees. Recent purchases of IDOG and EISIX are making me happy so far. M* is on the fritz this morning so no gory details.
The remaining buy on my Enbridge preferreds just got filled.
*...And I'm IN, at $42.49.
@WABAC, we are reducing junk bond, PRFRX lately. Still evaluating OSTIX.
I have also been considering downsizing PRWCX to a toehold. That would leave FMILX as the main source of exposure to tech in the IRA. That's fine with me. I've enough tech in the taxable to keep me happy.
On the bond end, we hope OSTIX will improve this year even though it trailed junk last year. David Sherman’s new fund, NRDCX excelled last year (much better than i anticipated). Pairing it with DODLX, my oversea bond funds are doing very well comparing to BNDX as the benchmark.
As for NRDCX, it's ok. APDPX had been outperforming until recently.
AQR has some impressive alternative funds. I looked at QLEIX but passed on it because TF at Schwab makes incremental buying too dear. I much prefer the ETF. As for ORR, it will be hard to predict what the tax bill might be at year-end.
It might also be the case that I have an unreasonable fear of products like long/short funds that seem too complicated to me. DIVO is about as complex as I can handle. And it's in the taxable, not the IRA.
As for NRCDX, it is an exception to the rule I stated above. However, I think I understand the market they're buying and selling in. So I'm comfortable with it as part of the IRA. It's too late to try and shoot the lights out there. I just need it to bubble along until I have to take distros.
CNP (David Giroux's pick) is ahead today about +2%.
But SSNC (Scott Black's pick) is having its worst day in about 6 months. Off - 8% on the day, approaching its April low.
Moral of story - Stick with Giroux.
And who said, "Timing is everything" ?
Addendum: I don't just buy picks blindly based on someone's pick. I did read up on both of above and examine the charts. So take the remark about Black with a grain of salt! The guy's been around forever ISTM.
I remember Tom Lee as one of the better writers at M*. Maybe if I understood what sets long/short funds apart from other types I might be more willing to look at them. But I haven't noticed that they behave all that differently in some unique way. It's possible I could be educated; possible.
Tom Lee is a Wall Street strategist who co-founded Fundstrat Global Advisors.
You may be thinking of Sam Lee who was at Morningstar before founding Severian Asset Management.
https://svrn.co/
BTW - I've heard the similar "AI" rationale while listening to Bloomberg today. Good luck with those picks you mentioned.
FWIW, Derf