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So How Will The Strikes On Venezuela Affect Markets?
Canada is the big loser. Their heavy oil will be displaced by cheap Venezuelan oil.
That is an interesting point. Which could actually drive the price of gasoline in the Midwest up. Canadian oil is cheap there because it can be trucked directly in. Oil that comes from the gulf, would be more expensive due to transportation expenses.
Canada is the big loser. Their heavy oil will be displaced by cheap Venezuelan oil.
That presumes Donnie's plans ever come to fruition. It's interesting how quiet Chevron and the other US majors have been thus far...you'd think if they were 'given' a country to rape and pillage they'd be issuing statements left and right outlining their preliminary plans. So far, from what I can tell, only CVX has issued a lukewarm "we'll follow the law" statement.
As with the 'drill baby drill' nonsense in the US, the oil cartels like oil at a certain price and won't just produce more because they can. Suddenly flooding the market with cheap oil may not always be in *their* best interests, and their interests always come first.
Right, why produce at low margins, or even at a loss? And let us recall that everyone thought that we hit the jackpot when we invaded Iraq. The reality was not so rosy.
Right. a huge investment in the Ven. oilpatch is not merely to be presumed as if it were an automatic next step. Those big fossil fuel companies are first and foremost capitalists. A resurgence in the Ven oil industry is no more to be expected than that tariffs will automatically serve to repatriate U.S. manufacturing jobs.
The strike and removal of Maduro and wife only further cements the Orange regime as a loose cannon which needs to be avoided and given a wide berth. Other countries will be telling themselves that this is just one more lawless, nutso, freewheeling adventure by uncle Orange.
The worldwide reputation of the USA will be in the toilet for generations. Bretton Woods is dead. Ethics is dead. "Greed is good." (Gordon Gecko.)
Phil Gramm (R-TX, retired, maybe dead) and his ilk turned up the heat and the speed in the direction of deregulation everywhere. But both major Parties are complicit in the Wild West financial nonsense we've had to deal with. Boom, bust. CDOs, GFC, tax breaks for the wealthiest. (Clinton, Greenspan, Rubin, Bernanke, Geitner, et alia. Post-Crash Obama reforms were anemic.) Meanwhile the ordinary "Joe" is taking it in the shorts.
Venezuela? I'd bet most regular folks don't give the whole business much thought. As is already obvious, U.S. news outlets on tv focus inordinately upon the local and the parochial. I don't need to spell-out my oft-repeated Churchill quotation about the uninformed and under-informed "average voter." They are everywhere, wherever you turn! How else did Orange get elected TWICE?
1) immediate loser is China as they get most of VZ oil, in payment for all the money they have lent VZ. Trump now controls the price, although with the maybe temporary supply excess there may not be able to crank prices up much. But this was probably done to hit China's monopoly on rare earths
2) LT this is a sig net positive for China. The US has now demonstrated it is easy to remove a foreign government that you do not like. China can use this as justification and "legal" cover to hit Taiwan. Bloomberg already has information that many Chinese Weibo posters see it exactly like this.
3) Key is will the Maduro die hards be willing to die to support their current goodies and incomes him and launch Guerilla war. This probably depends on how successfully Trump has managed to buy off the big players.
Venezuela oil is about 5% of China's sources. Easily replaceable and useless as a tool to pressure China on silver. The bigger message to China is to bugger off from the Western hemisphere and in general be aware that US can nuke any close relationship that China has built especially around Belt and Road.
Wouldn't shock me if US does something similar in Africa to really drive the point home.
Venezuela oil is about 5% of China's sources. Easily replaceable and useless as a tool to pressure China on silver. The bigger message to China is to bugger off from the Western hemisphere and in general be aware that US can nuke any close relationship that China has built especially around Belt and Road.
Wouldn't shock me if US does something similar in Africa to really drive the point home.
It would be pretty neat if Putin was a little rattled by the thought that Maduro's capture was just a trial run, even if there never was any intent by Donny to follow through.
Given Trump’s belief that he can always outdeal, outbully and outcheat everyone else, it’s easy to see how he interpreted some conciliatory conversations with Rodriguez as a signal that she would be his obedient puppet.
Trump’s self-image as the ultimate dealmaker explains why he was so ready to believe, falsely, that he controlled Venezuela. It also explains his insistence that by, as he imagined, seizing Venezuela, he had gained a valuable prize in the form of its oil. “We’re going to be taking out a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground.” Many Trump critics share his view that there’s a lot of money to be made from Venezuelan oil and condemn his intervention as an attempt to steal that money.
But you know who doesn’t think there’s a lot of money to be made in Venezuela? Oil companies. They see a dilapidated infrastructure that would cost billions to repair. They don’t see a stable political environment above ground. And while Venezuela has large oil reserves, much of its oil is “extra heavy, making it polluting and expensive to process.”
So why did Trump have Maduro abducted? There were surely multiple motivations. Fantasies of dominance and control and dreams of oilsoaked riches played their part. So did ego. The snatch gave Trump an opportunity to strut, and assuage his Obama envy: Trump’s minions set up a “war room” at Mar-a-Lago that looks as if it was designed to let him emulate the famous photo of Obama and his officials tracking the killing of Osama bin Laden.
Obama’s team did not, however, have X/Twitter on the screen behind them.
One of Krug's links is to a Politico story that's a good summary of the various oily factors.
Included is this take on the invasion by "an industry executive" familiar with the admin's attempts at outreach to Big Oil:
“In preparation for regime change, there had been engagement. But it’s been sporadic and relatively flatly received by the industry,” this person said. “It feels very much a shoot-ready-aim exercise.”
But you know who doesn’t think there’s a lot of money to be made in Venezuela? Oil companies. They see a dilapidated infrastructure that would cost billions to repair. They don’t see a stable political environment above ground. And while Venezuela has large oil reserves, much of its oil is “extra heavy, making it polluting and expensive to process.”
So why did Trump have Maduro abducted? There were surely multiple motivations. Fantasies of dominance and control and dreams of oilsoaked riches played their part. So did ego. The snatch gave Trump an opportunity to strut, and assuage his Obama envy: Trump’s minions set up a “war room” at Mar-a-Lago that looks as if it was designed to let him emulate the famous photo of Obama and his officials tracking the killing of Osama bin Laden.
Obama’s team did not, however, have X/Twitter on the screen behind them.
The picture becomes clearer. Let us also assume that a second military assault on VZ might be highly anticipated and extremely costly.
I am sure that Jimmy Carter was haunted to the end by images of our service personnel being dragged through the streets as a result of his decision. trump may want to put his uni-neuron to the task of picturing that possibility.
As implied by Krugman, any oil investment must be considered in light of a hostile environment, and the remaining term of this administration. One might foresee a scenario where a hundred billion is invested, and before a dime of value extracted, the tables are turned.
And what of the grotesque optics of being associated with the pillaging? Even the likes of XOM may not desire that baggage.
One of Krug's links is to a Politico story that's a good summary of the various oily factors.
Included is this take on the invasion by "an industry executive" familiar with the admin's attempts at outreach to Big Oil:
“In preparation for regime change, there had been engagement. But it’s been sporadic and relatively flatly received by the industry,” this person said. “It feels very much a shoot-ready-aim exercise.”
That would be on-brand.
Ultimately, it is impossible to give them any benefit of a doubt after, promising to stay out of foreign escapades into cultures we do not understand. And promising to lower prices, but actually raising them purposefully. Than lying about that. Plus, all the blaming of others, with zero responsibility taken for anything, except things they do not control.
One should expect that the unintended consequences will be many. And we now have threats to take Greenland, attack Cuba, attack Columbia. Basically, our own mini WWIII in our backyard. None of which has been sanctioned by Congress, as required by the Constitution, that they wipe their massive flabby thinking holes with.
Personally I would love to see Cheeto kidnapped in the middle of the night and exiled to the South Pole wearing only his pajamas. He’ll spend his remaining days frolicking with the penguins.
Oil giants Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron were not consulted about Venezuela before or after the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, industry executives told Reuters.
Their accounts contradict President Donald Trump’s statement on Sunday that he spoke with all three companies “before and after” the operation about investing in the country.
Four sources told Reuters the firms had no prior knowledge of the U.S. plan and have held no talks with the administration since Maduro’s removal. However, a White House official told Newsweek Monday afternoon that the Trump administration has had conversations with multiple oil companies.
The chief clown said that he spoke with the three Big Oil players named, but according to Reuters, sources who would supposedly know said there had been no such contact -- but then another clown told Newsweek that (others in?) the administration contacted "multiple" oil companies. In other words, they're all mixed up in their lies and generally don't know what the f**k they're doing, but for sure they did not involve Congress.
So the clown car occupants informed the oil companies before and after the operation BUT not the members of congress!? Do I got that right!?
Have they all been listening to their vinyl records backwards again?
Good point! Apparently he consulted the janitorial staff of Chevron, but neglected to tell Congress. Should all the good little boys and girls of Congress just go home? They have no further purpose.
The precedent has been set to discard all co-equal branches of government and declare the Executive branch all-powerful and all-knowing. This, for Dems and GOP alike, going forward.
Comments
The worldwide reputation of the USA will be in the toilet for generations. Bretton Woods is dead. Ethics is dead. "Greed is good." (Gordon Gecko.)
Phil Gramm (R-TX, retired, maybe dead) and his ilk turned up the heat and the speed in the direction of deregulation everywhere. But both major Parties are complicit in the Wild West financial nonsense we've had to deal with. Boom, bust. CDOs, GFC, tax breaks for the wealthiest. (Clinton, Greenspan, Rubin, Bernanke, Geitner, et alia. Post-Crash Obama reforms were anemic.) Meanwhile the ordinary "Joe" is taking it in the shorts.
Venezuela? I'd bet most regular folks don't give the whole business much thought. As is already obvious, U.S. news outlets on tv focus inordinately upon the local and the parochial. I don't need to spell-out my oft-repeated Churchill quotation about the uninformed and under-informed "average voter." They are everywhere, wherever you turn! How else did Orange get elected TWICE?
Looking at you, Canada.... Please, please...pretty please...
1) immediate loser is China as they get most of VZ oil, in payment for all the money they have lent VZ. Trump now controls the price, although with the maybe temporary supply excess there may not be able to crank prices up much. But this was probably done to hit China's monopoly on rare earths
2) LT this is a sig net positive for China. The US has now demonstrated it is easy to remove a foreign government that you do not like. China can use this as justification and "legal" cover to hit Taiwan. Bloomberg already has information that many Chinese Weibo posters see it exactly like this.
3) Key is will the Maduro die hards be willing to die to support their current goodies and incomes him and launch Guerilla war. This probably depends on how successfully Trump has managed to buy off the big players.
Let's see how much longer markets can dance the hustle.
Wouldn't shock me if US does something similar in Africa to really drive the point home.
Wouldn't shock me if US does something similar in Africa to really drive the point home.
Given Trump’s belief that he can always outdeal, outbully and outcheat everyone else, it’s easy to see how he interpreted some conciliatory conversations with Rodriguez as a signal that she would be his obedient puppet.
Trump’s self-image as the ultimate dealmaker explains why he was so ready to believe, falsely, that he controlled Venezuela. It also explains his insistence that by, as he imagined, seizing Venezuela, he had gained a valuable prize in the form of its oil. “We’re going to be taking out a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground.” Many Trump critics share his view that there’s a lot of money to be made from Venezuelan oil and condemn his intervention as an attempt to steal that money.
But you know who doesn’t think there’s a lot of money to be made in Venezuela? Oil companies. They see a dilapidated infrastructure that would cost billions to repair. They don’t see a stable political environment above ground. And while Venezuela has large oil reserves, much of its oil is “extra heavy, making it polluting and expensive to process.”
So why did Trump have Maduro abducted? There were surely multiple motivations. Fantasies of dominance and control and dreams of oilsoaked riches played their part. So did ego. The snatch gave Trump an opportunity to strut, and assuage his Obama envy: Trump’s minions set up a “war room” at Mar-a-Lago that looks as if it was designed to let him emulate the famous photo of Obama and his officials tracking the killing of Osama bin Laden.
Obama’s team did not, however, have X/Twitter on the screen behind them.
Included is this take on the invasion by "an industry executive" familiar with the admin's attempts at outreach to Big Oil:
“In preparation for regime change, there had been engagement. But it’s been sporadic and relatively flatly received by the industry,” this person said. “It feels very much a shoot-ready-aim exercise.”
We're sorry, but that page (still) cannot be found.
LINK
I am sure that Jimmy Carter was haunted to the end by images of our service personnel being dragged through the streets as a result of his decision. trump may want to put his uni-neuron to the task of picturing that possibility.
As implied by Krugman, any oil investment must be considered in light of a hostile environment, and the remaining term of this administration. One might foresee a scenario where a hundred billion is invested, and before a dime of value extracted, the tables are turned.
And what of the grotesque optics of being associated with the pillaging? Even the likes of XOM may not desire that baggage.
That would be on-brand.
Ultimately, it is impossible to give them any benefit of a doubt after, promising to stay out of foreign escapades into cultures we do not understand. And promising to lower prices, but actually raising them purposefully. Than lying about that. Plus, all the blaming of others, with zero responsibility taken for anything, except things they do not control.
One should expect that the unintended consequences will be many. And we now have threats to take Greenland, attack Cuba, attack Columbia. Basically, our own mini WWIII in our backyard. None of which has been sanctioned by Congress, as required by the Constitution, that they wipe their massive flabby thinking holes with.
“If she had turned it (The Nobel Prize) down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” the source said.
https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/trump-sidelined-venezuela-opposition-leader-machado-for-ultimate-sin-of-accepting-nobel-peace-prize-report/?cdmc=37qPrB9mFf1BeJsiOszmdFI9NIO&refcode2=37qPrB9mFf1BeJsiOszmdFI9NIO&refcodecdmc=37qPrB9mFf1BeJsiOszmdFI9NIO
Have they ll been listening to their vinyl records backwards again?
The precedent has been set to discard all co-equal branches of government and declare the Executive branch all-powerful and all-knowing. This, for Dems and GOP alike, going forward.