Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...

Comments

• dtconroe

  June 18

  Hi Fred, I thought I might venture back into bond oefs this year, as CDs mature. But with the political chaos this year, it is just too complicated for me to trust investing options other than CDs and MMs. I had 2 CDs mature this week, and I bought a 1 year CD at a 4.3% rate and put about the same amount of remaining money in a MM paying 4.27%. Good luck with your decision of what to do with your money.
• hank

  June 18 edited June 18

  One never knows where these things will lead. I’d say it’s pretty much a done deal the U.S. gets directly involved. Bloomberg is reporting as much this evening.
  
  It’s never a bad time to reassess how much risk one wants to assume. I pulled back a bit a few weeks ago. But, honestly, it had nothing to do with the state of the world or Tump or war or any economic projections. It was just a realistic appraisal of the risk appropriate at my age. When younger I’d “dumpster-dive” as things fell out of bed believing they’d someday turn around and reward me. But at an older age that’s a harder game to play. So playing it safe.
  
  Nice to see you posting Fred. There’s quite a bit of ongoing discussion in regard to the Mid-East situation running through different threads.
• Old_Joe

  June 18

  We're in our mid-80s, and pretty much in the same position financially. The allocation varies, but using Schwab the lineup right now is 59% SUTXX mmkt and 41% fixed income. The fixed ladder is 56% Treasury out to 1/28, and 44% CDs, out to 6/27.
• Crash

  June 18

  You should just follow my lead and do the opposite of what I do. I'm a great barometer, that way. I remember the '08-'09 GFC. I was stashing 403b money into EM bonds. It was a great ride. But what I see more recently is that just a few Junk bond funds do offer over 7% yield. I'm back into one of them: PRCPX. My "safe" I.G. bond fund is WCPNX, but it's been volatile--- for a bond fund. Otherwise, I'm riding my portfolio after having just very recently committed some stored-up cash into both stocks and bonds. I suppose I'll be walking a tightrope between preservation and growth until I croak. Heirs are a big consideration. And only one of the two of us here is retired.
• hank

  June 18 edited 7:54AM

  Thanks for your input @Old_Joe. I’m hesitant to list funds I own because what’s appropriate for me might be too aggressive or too lame for another. But one I’ve watched for years and finally picked up recently is BAMBX. the “Geritol” of funds. Lewis Braham did a very nice write up on it in Barron’s in November 2020.
• Observant1

  12:10AM edited 4:32AM

  Israel apparently does not have the capability to destroy the underground Fordo nuclear facility.
  I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. strikes this site with bunker-busting bombs.
  An Iran without nuclear weapon capabilities would be a positive development
  but I don't know what the repercussions may be.
  I'm very concerned about increased U.S. involvement in this war.
  I've not made any portfolio changes because my target asset allocation is within range
  and it's unclear how the stock market will react to future developments.
• FD1000

  9:23AM edited 9:31AM

  Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
  The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
  Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for stocks and 4-5% for bonds, that's great for my style of mostly unique bond funds. I will take 6% for the next 10 years.
• larryB

  9:49AM

  At Hank. I like the Geritol reference. I doubt the younger cohort here have any idea what Geritol might be.
• Junkster

  11:40AM edited 11:48AM

  FD1000 said:

  Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
  The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
  Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for stocks and 4-5% for bonds, that's great for my style of mostly unique bond funds. I will take 6% for the next 10 years.

  Just to set the record straight here there was a nearly 20% decline in 1990 during the Gulf War. Regardless I am still in the bull camp based on what occurred on April 9.
• Sven

  1:59PM edited 2:02PM

  @Junkster, +++ !
  
  Dirty Harry said “the man has to know his limit”
• hank

  2:17PM edited 2:27PM

  larryB said:

  At Hank. I like the Geritol reference. I doubt the younger cohort here have any idea what Geritol might be.

  Thanks Larry. Geritol was a big sponsor of the Lawerence Welk Show.
  
  BAMBX appears to be a fund designed for “boomers.” Low risk. Low return. Less stressful than walking around the block, getting dressed or climbing out of bed. But more exiting and potentially profitable than cash. Expensive too!
• a2z

  3:07PM edited 3:36PM

  it seems some are on the verge of rotating 180 degrees to historic regurgitation of how war leads to a booming economy.
• FD1000

  3:22PM edited 3:33PM

  Junkster said:

  FD1000 said:

  Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
  The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
  Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for stocks and 4-5% for bonds, that's great for my style of mostly unique bond funds. I will take 6% for the next 10 years.

  Just to set the record straight here there was a nearly 20% decline in 1990 during the Gulf War. Regardless I am still in the bull camp based on what occurred on April 9.

  It is true that the SP500 went down in 1990, but it was before the war.
  The Gulf War started in Mid-January 1991 and the SP500 went up over 25%.
  Surprisingly, markets are nervous before the actual war but not after the start because there are no more unknowns. It was clear the US would win the war.
  
  https://schrts.co/TTZMpgVH
  
  BTW, EIS=Israel ETF is up 5% since the beginning of the war last Friday, June 13.
  
• larryB

  3:44PM

  At Hank. Who is Lawrence Welk? A dude who hung out with the Lennon Sisters!!!