Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...

fred495

Per yesterday's NYT: "Fears of a wider war were growing on Tuesday after President Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” cited the possibility of killing its supreme leader and referred to Israel’s war efforts with the word “we” — all apparent suggestions that the United States could enter the conflict against Iran."

In view of the above rather alarming news item, and as a retired investor who doesn't need a lot more money, I am seriously considering increasing my cash position by reducing my portfolio's equity related holdings. I am curious what, if anything, other investors are planning to do, or are perhaps contemplating doing, if the above fears become reality?

At this time, futures are in a slight downward trend. At my age, I prefer to err on the side of caution.

dtconroe

Hi Fred, I thought I might venture back into bond oefs this year, as CDs mature. But with the political chaos this year, it is just too complicated for me to trust investing options other than CDs and MMs. I had 2 CDs mature this week, and I bought a 1 year CD at a 4.3% rate and put about the same amount of remaining money in a MM paying 4.27%. Good luck with your decision of what to do with your money.

hank

One never knows where these things will lead. I’d say it’s pretty much a done deal the U.S. gets directly involved. Bloomberg is reporting as much this evening.

It’s never a bad time to reassess how much risk one wants to assume. I pulled back a bit a few weeks ago. But, honestly, it had nothing to do with the state of the world or Tump or war or any economic projections. It was just a realistic appraisal of the risk appropriate at my age. When younger I’d “dumpster-dive” as things fell out of bed believing they’d someday turn around and reward me. But at an older age that’s a harder game to play. So playing it safe.

Nice to see you posting Fred. There’s quite a bit of ongoing discussion in regard to the Mid-East situation running through different threads.

Old_Joe

We're in our mid-80s, and pretty much in the same position financially. The allocation varies, but using Schwab the lineup right now is 59% SUTXX mmkt and 41% fixed income. The fixed ladder is 56% Treasury out to 1/28, and 44% CDs, out to 6/27.

Crash

You should just follow my lead and do the opposite of what I do. I'm a great barometer, that way. I remember the '08-'09 GFC. I was stashing 403b money into EM bonds. It was a great ride. But what I see more recently is that just a few Junk bond funds do offer over 7% yield. I'm back into one of them: PRCPX. My "safe" I.G. bond fund is WCPNX, but it's been volatile--- for a bond fund. Otherwise, I'm riding my portfolio after having just very recently committed some stored-up cash into both stocks and bonds. I suppose I'll be walking a tightrope between preservation and growth until I croak. Heirs are a big consideration. And only one of the two of us here is retired.

hank

Thanks for your input @Old_Joe. I’m hesitant to list funds I own because what’s appropriate for me might be too aggressive or too lame for another. But one I’ve watched for years and finally picked up recently is BAMBX. the “Geritol” of funds. Lewis Braham did a very nice write up on it in Barron’s perhaps 5-7 years ago.

Observant1

Israel apparently does not have the capability to destroy the underground Fordo nuclear facility.
I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. strikes this site with bunker-busting bombs.
An Iran without nuclear weapon capabilities would be a positive development
but I don't know what the repercussions may be.
I'm very concerned about increased U.S. involvement in this war.
I've not made any portfolio changes because my target asset allocation is within range
and it's unclear how the stock market will react to future developments.