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The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. It went down from 2.6% on Dec 24 to 2.1%. This is a four-year low.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 4.6 percent on June 2, up from 3.8 percent on May 30.

mmm...not bad.

Comments

  • Does the Atlanta Fed have an opinion as well on the value of the government services that are being wantonly destroyed to offset tax breaks for the super-wealthy?

    Some know the price of everything, and the value of nothing.
  • Again, Joe, there is nothing political in my post, just 2 numbers.
    Why are you bringing your politics to every post I made?
  • edited June 4
    As if you aren't indirectly boasting about carefully selected aspects of the present financial/political situation. Who do you think that you're fooling?

    What about the cost to millions of relatively poor Americans that it took to get those numbers?
    Let's talk about the entire picture.
  • FD1000 said:

    Again, Joe, there is nothing political in my post, just 2 numbers.
    Why are you bringing your politics to every post I made?

    Perhaps because politics has affected the quality of the numbers you are taking as gospel.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/64060/economists-raise-questions-about-quality-of-u-s-inflation-data


  • despite january polls showing the gop expected inflation under trump to be 0%, there is a reason that (obviously retrospective) reports of inflation and recession (partly self-correcting) are disingenuous.
    because the economic commitment was to bring DOWN prices by a lot for cars, houses, energy, eggs, etc...
    the only way i see this promise kept is with major long duration recession and unemployment. if the fed has to cuts rates, this may prevent trump from touting low prices.

    "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one. We will drill, baby, drill. That’s going to bring down prices of everything!" ~Donald Trump
    "When I take office, I will swiftly reduce prices starting from day one." ~Donald Trump

    The reality...
    "Walmart and Target workers are sharing pics of price increases amid Trump’s trade war."
    "I've been doing price change everyday for the past four months or so, and seeing everything going up all at once is really making me sad," said a Target worker in late May. "I just feel terrible putting all these ridiculously high prices up."
  • edited June 5
    Short-term / near-term data like this isn’t very helpful. I won’t fault FD for citing it because all of us mention short-term or near-term numbers from time to time, sometimes even noting day-to-day or month-to-month changes in stock averages (guilty as charged).

    Inflation going down? Tell that to bond traders or the gold market. While the latter trades a lot on emotion and is very erratic, the trend can’t be mistaken. In both cases (bonds & metals) the trend signals higher, not lower, inflation.

    5 years ago investors in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond were demanding a rate of 0.60% to buy. Now, they’re demanding around 4.40%. That reflects what they think they need to earn from a “risk-free” (not really) investment to keep up with inflation over the next decade. Gold’s gone crazy. Over 5 years it’s risen from $1900 to $3400. And the FX is telling a similar story with a recent fall in the dollar. On this one, the numbers are too recent to define a trend - but my guess is there is an emerging longer-term trend (ominous for inflation).

    I’d planned to cite some other commodities, but realized many were so distorted by the Covid period (like oil which got down to under $14) that they’re not worth citing. I won’t play politics. Neither side has an A+ on fighting inflation. And the issue is much more entrenched and complicated than what any one administration can solve. That’s not to argue the present one hasn’t made mistakes.

    Are we discussing inflation from an investment perspective (longer-term outlook and how to invest to stay ahead?) or from a political perspective (Has Trump caused more or less inflation than Biden?) The second doesn’t much help me. But the first is very helpful to understanding what funds / assets to own and which ones to avoid.


    From a 5-10 year investment perspective - with persistent or higher inflation


    Cash? It’s OK. Rates should roughly approximate inflation over time.

    Ultra-Short bond funds? Thumbs-up

    Longer-dated bonds? Thumbs-down

    1-3 year high quality bonds? Even-Steven. Probably OK. I own a slug of NEAR

    Junk bonds? Dunno. Don’t play in that park. I’d say to buy them when no one wants them.

    TIPS? Yes - With the qualification that they’re best directly held (not jerked around by fund flows). Randall Forsyth has a column in this week’s Barrons highly favorable. Read it.

    Cash + bond alternatives (like CVSIX, GDL, LPXAX)? Decent. Worth consideration.

    Precious metals? No way at my age. Pretty to look at. But too volatile & risky.

    Commodities / “real asset” funds? Yes. But only in moderation. Very cyclical.

    “Systematic” multi-asset approaches? - Worth holding as a diversifier. I own BAMBX.

    Equities? Depends which ones. I like broadly diversified / balanced funds with an international tilt.

    RPSIX? You have to be kidding. Look at its 10-year performance - and with a healthy slug of equities.
  • "Gold’s gone crazy. Over 5 years it’s risen from $1900 to $3400."

    Hmmm, wonder if rono is selling any here.
  • edited June 5
    Mark said:

    "Gold’s gone crazy. Over 5 years it’s risen from $1900 to $3400.”
    Hmmm wonder if rono is selling any here.

    rono’s pretty smart. I’d imagine he’s already fled the country with his bounty before the government decides to confiscate all bullion and issue owners some form of “digital gold” instead.
  • edited June 5
    msf said:

    FD1000 said:

    Again, Joe, there is nothing political in my post, just 2 numbers.
    Why are you bringing your politics to every post I made?

    Perhaps because politics has affected the quality of the numbers you are taking as gospel.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/64060/economists-raise-questions-about-quality-of-u-s-inflation-data

    Any time economists worry or predict the future, you can ignore it because they are as accurate as the weather guys.
    Pretty much expected. It's another preemptive attempt in the future to claim that good data is wrong.
  • @hank said: "Inflation going down? Tell that to bond traders or the gold market."
    ... and Walmart.
  • I kind of wonder what is in the water supply in Atlanta after reading coverage of the latest Beige Book from the Fed. Dinky linky.
    According to the report, nine of the 12 Fed districts reported contraction in economic activity or no change in growth. The remaining districts saw slight growth.

    Business contacts across the country said consumers were not spending and described labor markets as “flat.”

    Summing things up, the report said that “all districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which has led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions.”
    Reading the report from Atlanta, well, draw your own conclusions about the value of GDPNow.:YADL.


  • Shouldn't that be "YADL Y'ALL" ?
  • Old_Joe said:

    Shouldn't that be "YADL Y'ALL" ?

    All y'all being the proper plural form of y'all: Yet anther dinky linky all y'all YADLAY.
  • Old_Joe said:

    @hank said: "Inflation going down? Tell that to bond traders or the gold market."
    ... and Walmart.

    We all know real inflation; the whole country witnessed it a couple of years ago. It was the highest inflation in 4 decades.
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