Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
For one thing, significant limitations on advanced microchips to the Middle East have been eased. The ME has AI and bitcoin aspirations.
My take on the oil situation was that OPEC had increased production to head off our domestic industry from increasing production, by holding down prices. Basically beating Trump to the punch, after he broadcast his desire for a U.S. production increase.
On the topic of inflation, we just got a new PCE number:
"Core inflation rate rose to 2.7% in May, more than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows"
"Along with the inflation numbers, consumer spending and income showed further signs of weakening. Spending fell 0.1% for the month, compared with the estimate for an increase of 0.1%. Personal income declined 0.4%, against the forecast for a gain of 0.3%."
-The latest inflation data came in hotter than expected, and Nike warned in its earnings on Thursday that prices will be going higher due to tariffs. -Across the U.S. retail and manufacturing distribution chains, inventory has started to be re-ticketed with higher prices, by between 8%-15%, according to ITS Logistics, including for apparel and consumer product goods. -The footwear industry says it expects prices to rise by between 6% and 10%.
Does not appear to be the time to fan the flames of inflation with lower rates. Imagine what happens when Donald gets his wish for full control of the FED.
Comments
My take on the oil situation was that OPEC had increased production to head off our domestic industry from increasing production, by holding down prices. Basically beating Trump to the punch, after he broadcast his desire for a U.S. production increase.
On the topic of inflation, we just got a new PCE number:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/27/pce-inflation-report-may-2025-.html
"Core inflation rate rose to 2.7% in May, more than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows"
"Along with the inflation numbers, consumer spending and income showed further signs of weakening. Spending fell 0.1% for the month, compared with the estimate for an increase of 0.1%. Personal income declined 0.4%, against the forecast for a gain of 0.3%."
This seems most appropriate posted right here.
-The latest inflation data came in hotter than expected, and Nike warned in its earnings on Thursday that prices will be going higher due to tariffs.
-Across the U.S. retail and manufacturing distribution chains, inventory has started to be re-ticketed with higher prices, by between 8%-15%, according to ITS Logistics, including for apparel and consumer product goods.
-The footwear industry says it expects prices to rise by between 6% and 10%.
Does not appear to be the time to fan the flames of inflation with lower rates. Imagine what happens when Donald gets his wish for full control of the FED.
Well. Methinks he's going to have to replace more than one voter to get there.