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ARGH !!! I want more tech, but dang, looking at 2023 returns. I track this one...and other tech

catch22catch22
in Fund Discussions
SMH etf, VanEck, Semi Conductors, 26 holdings as of today, Jan. 8.

--- +73.4% in 2023 and it was down -5 last week, but strong again today at +3.5%, with other tech. advancing, too (Jan. 8)

I/we prefer 10% of the portfolio for a holding to be meaningful for either the positive or negative affect. Perhaps some dollar cost averaging, in 2% chunks. Magic 8 Ball is awaiting parts. But I can make hand drawn dart board.
So many have to have the chips and their related vendors, eh?

Gonna watch a football game first with a game snack of Michigan 'Jiffy Mix' corn bread.:) 
Ticker	Holding Name	% of Net Assets	 
NVDA US	Nvidia Corp	20.35
TSM US	Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co 	9.12	
AVGO US	Broadcom Inc	6.02	
AMD US	Advanced Micro Devices Inc	5.59	
INTC US	Intel Corp	5.36	
ASML US	Asml Holding Nv	4.79	
TXN US	Texas Instruments Inc	4.49	
LRCX US	Lam Research Corp	4.47	
QCOM US	Qualcomm Inc	4.46	
ADI US	Analog Devices Inc	4.38	
AMAT US	Applied Materials Inc	4.37	
MU US	Micron Technology Inc	4.02	
SNPS US	Synopsys Inc	3.62	
KLAC US	Kla Corp	3.55	
CDNS US	Cadence Design Systems Inc	3.21	
NXPI US	Nxp Semiconductors Nv	2.23	
MCHP US	Microchip Technology Inc	2.10	
MRVL US	Marvell Technology Inc	1.91	
STM US	Stmicroelectronics Nv	1.38	
ON US	On Semiconductor Corp	1.26	
MPWR US	Monolithic Power Systems Inc	1.08	
SWKS US	Skyworks Solutions Inc	0.77	
TER US	Teradyne Inc	0.62	
QRVO US	Qorvo Inc	0.46	
OLED US	Universal Display Corp	0.38	
USD CASH-		-0.01		-
Other/Cash	0.04	--
«1

Comments

  • MikeMMikeM
    Go Blue!
  • MarkMark
    edited January 9
    D
  • hank
    MikeM said:

    ”Go Blue!”

    @MikeM - Are you recommending IBM stock?
  • Sven
    Semiconductor is one enabling way to play AI. They are expensive though, so go slow.
  • larryB
    @MikeM. Go Blue!!!!!
  • Derf
    Congrats to Michigan & thanks for returning Championship back to the "Big Ten".
  • larryB
    @Derf.+1. I think Washington was out coached.
  • catch22catch22
    Hi @Mark Thank you. Looking at FSELX as well. We have FTEC (Fido tech etf), too. Perhaps we'll hang loose for a bit to discover how much 'cranial-rectal' inversion' remains in Congress for the next month or so.
  • hank
    edited January 9
    @catch22 - Why not hold on to your technology marbles and wait for SpaceX to go public?

    Perhaps as early as 2024

    In keeping with the football motif here, were I inclined to play this one I’d probably employ an ”End-around” (indirect route) and invest instead in mushrooms which should benefit from all the IPO publicity and are far less likely to explode.

    Really, the possibilities here are endless …

    - Reverse play - Sell the stock short which would pay off big if the first rocket blows up.

    - Punt - Hang on to for a few days as IPO attracts buyers and soars in price and than sell all.

    - Double reverse - Try driving the price down with a massive short position; than switch directions and buy in “on the cheap” after panicked investors have fled.

    - “Hail Mary” - Go for broke. Double-down using leverage.


    My own low key ”ground game” has never been interested much in high-tech. I’ve have made more money over the years - potentially anyway. But the big swings in valuation would have led to many sleepless nights. Those kinds of swings can also lead to making dumb decisions like jumping ship at the worst possible moment. However, I did own some PRMTX for a few months in late ‘08 - early ‘09 when valuations were at rock bottom.
  • catch22catch22
    edited January 9
    Hi @hank Using your noted PRMTX.....

    PRMTX v FSELX v SPY simple bar chart , Jan 1999 to date.

    You could have done much worse in many other areas of the markets. And I'm NOT suggesting one place all the marbles into one bag.
    NOTE: I first began training in electronics in 1968. I had several different employers during my employment period, involved with electronics/computer driven mechanical devices. My longest tenure was 33 years with one company. I have a comfort level with technology and its continued evolving into 'everything'.
    It is important to maintain one's feeling as much as possible and not flip investments. Not an easy task.
    SpaceX and Mr. Musk. Nope. Not interested in a single issue, regardless of the brilliance of Musk to get things done in technology. It's the other part of his brain that gives me pause.
    If one wants to maintain 10 investment positions (10% each) in a portfolio, I feel one pure area should be some form of technology (not a single issue), but an etf or fund with at least 30 holdings.

    ADD: investing in mushrooms

  • hank
    edited January 9
    ”If one wants to maintain 10 investment positions (10% each) in a portfolio, I feel one pure area should be some form of technology (not a single issue), but an etf or fund with at least 30 holdings.”

    - I beg to differ Catch. Depends on your own disposition and the other parts of your portfolio. Different ways to skin a cat.

    - Interesting chart. Thanks for posting. In its “hey-day” PRMTX was nearly as popular as PRWCX is today. Has been soft closed and hard to access at times.

    - No doubt my two L/S funds (10% each) dabble in the tech arena. But I don’t pay particular attention to which stocks they own and which ones they short. For the cost of owning these types of funds, the managers should know a lot more than I do.

    - Haven’t checked PRPFX’s holdings lately. It’s often thought of as a “gold & silver” fund. But of course it’s much more. Aggressive growth stocks have always constituted one of its investment sleeves. So if you happen to own that one, you may have more tech exposipure than you realize.
  • catch22catch22
    @hank I corrected a typo.
    --- And I'm NOT suggesting one place all the marbles into one bag.

    And 'dispositions' help shape the markets, eh? I believe there were a few discussions here regarding the 'talking heads' and that many missed the market returns for 2023. Even many bond funds caught a positive 'wave' to close 2023.
  • hank
    edited January 9
    +1

    But I hasten to add -

    There are short term dispositions (mainly about market direction) to which Catch alludes. There also longer term ingrained dispositions regarding how much risk one is willing to assume and the types of investments he / she is most comfortable holding over longer periods
  • Art
    edited January 10
    I switched to stocks from mutual funds after I retired. Don't post much because of that. I have 9% of portfolio in Tech stocks having bought both AVGO and NVDA plus four other stocks in late summer of 2022.
  • hank
    edited January 10
    Art said:

    I switched to stocks from mutual funds after I retired. Don't post much because of that. I have 9% of portfolio in Tech stocks having bought both AVGO and NVDA plus four other stocks in late summer of 2022.

    @Art - We’d enjoy your investment perspectives anyhow whenever you’re inclined to post.
    Nice going.

    A stranger I encountered on a hotel / airport shuttle a bit under 2 years ago (June ‘22) recommended I buy NVDA. (His only recommendation) Just casual chatter. He couldn’t even pronounce the company name correctly - but had read recommendations for it on the Motley Fool - which he swore by as a great source of investment guidance. Of course, I didn’t take his advice. Who in their right mind would buy a stock based on an anonymous tip from some stranger encountered by chance on an airport shuttle?

    I suspect there’s deeper significance to that story - but danged if I can figure it out.
    .
  • BaluBalu
    TMFC
  • equalizer
    PRMTX holds good stocks, but lone manager has been there only four years. Max drawdown -44.69% 2021-22, about same as index
  • BaluBalu
    edited December 3
    BaluBalu said:

    TMFC

    I look at its chart and can not figure out why it does not get love in this forum. Any thoughts? Looks better than FBCG to my eye.

  • catch22catch22
    @BaluBalu
    I look at its chart and can not figure out why it does not get love in this forum. Any thoughts? Looks better than FBCG to my eye.
    Lots of choices in large growth, be it etf's, mutual funds or an index. A LOT of choices period when looking at all market areas.

    Since FBCG (Fidelity Blue Chip Growth) inception in June, 2020 vs TMFC, FBCG is +133.6% and TMFC is +126.5%.

    Notes about this sector indicate 869 offerings now vs 476, 15 years ago. FBCG is an active managed etf, TMFC is set against an index.

    For our house, if we can have an investment that is a Fidelity product and compares equal to another vendor product, we will choose Fidelity.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited December 3
    etf.db shows TMFC as passive/indexed with ER of 50 bps. Is that for Motley Fool name? There is big iShares SP100 OEF at 20 bps.

    FBCG is active LC-growth with ER of 59 bps. FBCG had difficult 2022, but it leads for YTD, 1y, 2y.

    https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=TMFC&id=p68017090487&compare=OEF,FBCG&perf=false
  • BaluBalu
    Is the index passive too?

    https://fooletfs.com/our-funds/tmfc?gad_source=1

  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Motley Fool 100 is rebalanced quarterly. About 100 companies are selected from Motley Fool recommended lists and are market-weighted within this 100-universe.

    It isn't active, may be semi-active/passive. Looks more like factor-based with "Motley Fool factor".
    https://www.foolindices.com/fool-100/methodology/
  • MikeMMikeM
    I've never thought of Motley Fool as an investment house. I always thought of it as an entertainment site that makes money through advertising. Even their stock recommendations seem to be subpar.
  • catch22catch22
    NOTE for all reading this thread. I initially started this on January 8 of this year.
  • VirtueRunsDeep
    MikeM said:

    I've never thought of Motley Fool as an investment house. I always thought of it as an entertainment site that makes money through advertising. Even their stock recommendations seem to be subpar.

    Agree!
  • WABACWABAC
    yogibearbull said:

    etf.db shows TMFC as passive/indexed with ER of 50 bps. Is that for Motley Fool name? There is big iShares SP100 OEF at 20 bps.

    FBCG is active LC-growth with ER of 59 bps. FBCG had difficult 2022, but it leads for YTD, 1y, 2y.

    https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=TMFC&id=p68017090487&compare=OEF,FBCG&perf=false

    I wonder how SCHG would fit in there, I'm too lazy to disable my ad blocker. ER of .04 sure helps I'll bet.

    I'm leery of catch-all funds that lost 30%, or more, in 2022.

    It will be interesting to consider three-year returns at M* as we move into 2025.
  • hank
    edited December 4
    MikeM said:

    I've never thought of Motley Fool as an investment house. I always thought of it as an entertainment site that makes money through advertising. Even their stock recommendations seem to be subpar.

    @MikeM - I received an anonymous tip from a fella I didn’t know while riding a hotel shuttle bus to the airport in Charlotte NC roughly 3 years ago. A very pleasant fella, he was a MotlyFool regular. Spoke highly of the site. From there he’d deduced the next hot investment would be Nvidia - although he wasn’t sure how to pronounce it and tried several different pronunciations. That was it. One tip to buy a tech company practically nobody had ever heard of. Of course, I don’t invest based on anonymous tips from complete strangers! (But maybe I should.) I did however recommend this esteemed forum to him and he was eager to check it out.
  • BaluBalu
    edited December 4
    I am not a Motley Fool subscriber but I knew a couple of guys in the CFO organization at my ex-employer who were paid subscribers and the stocks they talked to me about did well.

    It would be good to hear from subscribers of MF services or of any credible investment services organization. I just do not want to assume my eco chamber (MFO) is all there is.

    There are many lurkers in this forum who do not speak up and share their knowledge because of strong unfavorable opinions expressed in here. Not everyone is interested in a debate.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    @BaluBalu- yes sir, and that was also a major factor in the creation of the Off-Topic section- to move at least some of those debates out of the financial sections. With respect to the choice of sections when posting I do notice a deterioration in discipline as of late.
  • BaluBalu
    Thanks @Old_Joe.
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