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the-true-cost-of-tariffsTariffs are, first and foremost, a tax, and Trump’s proposals would indeed raise meaningful revenue that could be used to shrink the federal budget deficit, which totaled $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024 ended Sept. 30. Under the most common interpretation of Trump’s proposal — a 10% tariff on all goods imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods imports — the US raises $2.6 trillion over 10 years if other countries do not retaliate. Dial the non-China tariffs up to 20% and revenues rise by $4.4 trillion.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
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Blanket tarriffs on everything is isolationist policy and will throw the US (if not world) economy into huge disarray, I feel.
Using 'tarriffs' as a sledgehammer when a scalpel is needed is a bigly recipe for bigly disaster, to include ramping up inflation. This is all made worse when the person making the threat *still* doesn't understand that the impact of tarrifs will be felt by the very people/industries he claims to be protecting by said tarrifs ... and that tarriff money doesn't just magically accrue in the US Treasury for use in other spending w/o consequences. But hey, it sounds impressive as a talking point and makes the guy feel 'powerful' on the world stage* which is all that matters to him.
* key word. Stages are where actors, even bad ones, perform.
Yes, what we all know; that a tariff is a price increase for thousands of items that are required to finish a product in the U.S.
I had a great tariff product list from that period that is no longer available on my pc; but one should be able to find a current list of the 1,000's of items that go into U.S. built products. It is a most interesting list.
I can't recall the number of items that are imported, that are needed to assemble a 'garden tractor'; as an example.
Gotta move along with chores today.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2021/05/20/trumps-tariffs-were-much-more-damaging-than-thought/
October 15, 2024
It's not unlike the "tax the business" idea: We tax an industry/business. The industry/business cuts jobs, amount of product, or simply passes the extra costs along. The consumer pays more for the same thing. Who ultimately paid the tax?
Now, there may be other factors at play: Protecting local industries/workers' salaries at the expense of consumers' costs, for example; so it isn't typically a one-dimensional issue (most things aren't).
The object here is to force industry 'home', protect existing industry, etc. Those are worthwhile goals, but it's naive to assume you won't be paying more as a result.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.33.4.187 (free download)
From Mercantilism entry in the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics (on the website of the Library of Economics and Liberty: That last part sounds familiar ... https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/us/politics/trump-tariffs-economy-economy-club-chicago.html
Mercantilism died in the 18th to 19th century for good reason. It views trade as a zero sum game. In contrast, "Adam Smith viewed trade as a positive-sum game in which all trading partners can benefit if countries specialize in the production of goods in which they have absolute advantages. Ricardo extended absolute advantage theory to comparative advantage theory. " At least that's what I was taught in Econ 101.
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/9789812385222_0001
it is just so offensively stupid that he does not know how complex things are, and are made, how much skill and training (and robots) it takes, and how long it takes
today's primer:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/opinion/trump-tariffs-economy.html
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/off-charts-trump-tariffs-shock-013111202.html
Truth.
But that's a business decision, to do so. It's not a thing sent down from on high by the Prince Of Darkness, to be obeyed without thinking, without exception.
Trump had low inflation + high increase of real wages + the borders were tight + Putin did not attack Ukraine + the Middle East was quiet and 4 Muslim countries sign peace agreement with Israel because Trump killed Sulimani, destroyed ISIS, and chocked Iran.
On the other hand Joe & Kamala had very high inflation + houses & Vehicles increased over the high inflation + Putin invaded Ukraine during Obama,Joe, and Kamala + illegal immigrants by the millions invaded our country + war in the middle East because weak Joe and Kamala.
Basically, anything good that Trump did is fake, but everything bad that Joe and Kamala did was because of Trump.
TDS all the way.
• As if Trump's good friend Putin's war had nothing to do with the world-wide increase in energy prices.
• As if any US president has any control over Hamas starting a war.
• As if any US president has any control over Hezbollah starting a war.
• As if Trump's destruction of the agreement with Iran to hold back nuclear weapons development has had no bad effects in the Middle East.
• As if any US president has any control over a world-wide pandemic.
• As if that world-wide pandemic had absolutely nothing to do with major increases in the cost of goods.
• As if a huge portion of the inflationary pressures in the last few years had nothing to do with the massive financial support that Biden provided to the American consumer to keep them afloat through all of this.
• As if the absence of the much-predicted "inevitable" depression has nothing to do with Biden's policies.
• As if all of the support now being given to increase production of critical equipment and electronics here in the US isn't real.
• As if the financial markets are not in an excellent state.
• And as if you haven't profited directly from all of that presidential work.
It can lead one into suggesting in January 2020 that "For cash sub use SEMMX".
SEMMX had been quiescent for several years. It had had a std deviation over the previous five years of just 1.14.
But risks that rarely manifest can lurk below the surface. Sometimes they do show themselves. Once was right after this suggestion was made, between 2/24/2020 and 4/8/ 2020 (SEMMX down 25.18%). Another time was not long afterward, between 1/13/2022 and 12/5/2022 (SEMMX down 14.05%).
Likewise, while average (median) real income soared toward the end of the Trump administration, it helps to look beneath the surface. When huge swaths of low paid workers lose their jobs, then of course the average income (real and nominal) of workers soars. https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-13/did-the-pandemic-affect-real-earnings.htm
The situation continued to be so bad that at the end of 2020 Trump was complaining that his own administration wasn't handing out enough cash (stimulus checks) directly to taxpayers.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/12/22/trump-covid-relief-congress-stimulus/
It was left to Biden to send out the economic relief checks that Trump was unable to get through Congress. Biden signed that into law in early March 2021.
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/coronavirus/assistance-for-american-families-and-workers/economic-impact-payments
The point here is that whenever one looks at numbers, whether for particular investments or economic trends, it behooves one to look at more than the number themselves.
OTOH, if one chooses to disregard the whole environment, then we should take note that in addition to generating significant growth in real wages, the Trump administration was the only one since Hoover to end its term with fewer jobs than when it started. Both the wage growth and the employment statistics could benefit from context.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-leave-office-worst-jobs-030044152.html
Thank you to both for your time and efforts with your writes.
A recent post(er) in this thread indicates this:
What is the meaning of fake reading syndrome?
What is fake reading syndrome? By its definition, fake reading is a condition that prevents readers from actually absorbing any information through reading.
Remain curious,
Catch
The best we can do is to elect someone who we believe has our best interests at heart, and who listens to people who are more knowledgeable then him or herself.
Wooow
How true. Well, we know for sure that eliminates one of the two contenders.
Politics tends to attract people who desire power for themselves; regardless of party. It's probably no coincidence that it attracts rich people/families. Nor unusual for it to attract people with concerning tendencies. Regardless of one's political leanings, take a close look at the individual and the people she or he listens to. I'd like to believe that an objective observer would choose to follow a wise path, but we are, after all, dealing with people... 8^b
What I don't enjoy is the simple fact that many people, especially bight ones with advanced degrees completely lost their mind.
When I discuss politics with my Dems friends they want to eliminate Trump or just kill him regardless of the law because in there mind it's OK. Any means should be used and why TDS.
On the other side what Dems have done is all OK and most of the media are cooperating too.
There is an easy test, any time antisemitism increases dramatically, especially among the educated people, this time the universities + several reps of one party and nothing major done + the media don't recognize it, it's a problem.
My last post on this thread.
Unfortunately, politics and ideology have become so pervasive in the comments that i can no longer visit what once was a great place to exchange ideas. I wish you all the very best in your investments and health.
Mike