Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Thank you all for the many years that go back to the Fundalarm days of investment advice and wisdom. I benefited from it and I appreciate all the thoughtful insights and the great work David and Charles and many others here have done.
Unfortunately, politics and ideology have become so pervasive in the comments that i can no longer visit what once was a great place to exchange ideas. I wish you all the very best in your investments and health.
Unfortunately, politics and ideology have become so pervasive in the comments that i can no longer visit what once was a great place to exchange ideas.
That’s the most unkindest cut of all Sir!
I believe it truly remarkable how little politics has surfaced in the investment portion of MFO in recent months. Quite remarkable considering the heated temperament across the public media and probably the highest level of public interest ever in any U.S. election. I can think of only two prominent threads with potential political overtones over a very long stretch of time. This thread represents one. The other is DJT in your portfolio. To everyone’s credit most, if not all, of the interaction in both threads has been civil.
For politics, I invite you check out the Off Topic section. which serves as a refuge for those of us who wish to discuss areas not directly related to investing - including politics. It must work, because there has been up to now so little politics in the investing section. I don’t know your political persuasion, and frankly don’t care. But you have no business disparaging the vast majority here who provide thoughtful fund related investment information, advice and reflection.
As if we needed another example, yet again political sniping has been introduced to financial postings by the Trump disciples of the board. Two of them in particular are well aware of the MFO management request that we use the Off-Topic section for such commentary, yet they feel free to violate our community space whenever they are so inclined.
Other than these two, I cannot recall any recent similar transgression by anyone on either side of the political divide. As in the larger national political scene it is primarily Trump partisans who feel free to violate virtually every normal convention of civility and fact-based commentary.
If Trump should once again become president we should not be surprised if he makes every effort to suppress the opinions and commentary of those of us who do not agree with him. He has, after all, told us that he is quite willing to use the National Guard and even the Army to do exactly that.
Unlike the recent postings by @FD1000, these are not fake facts.
While ya'll arguing over who is taller while laying on their back....you know what I mean...what I am getting really concerned about and no one seems to be focused on is why is Uncle Warren selling so much Bank of America stock? Is it because of all the HTM bonds they hold and what happens if inflation keeps going up?...and the wealthy depositors can move their money in a few clicks...and why did the guy who runs WRB put his reserves in 1 year notes back in 2020...cause he was smart....and it's not just BOA....just that the govt papered it over with a backstop to prevent a bank run...greedy banksters getting their bonus while playing loose with excessive risk...don't wait, KNOW WHERE YOUR MONEY IS AND WHO HOLDS IT!
If by "inflation" you mean prices, prices have been going up continuously YoY every year since the Great Depression, except in 1949, 1955, and 2009 (Great Recession). Nothing new here.
If you mean the rate of inflation, it has been generally trending down (i.e. we have been in disinflation) for the last two years. YoY inflation for each month has declined from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to its current low of 2.4% in Sept. 2024.
YoY inflation by month (transcribed from data.bls.gov):
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2022 7.5 7.9 8.5 8.3 8.6 9.1 8.5 8.3 8.2 7.7 7.1 6.5 2023 6.4 6.0 5.0 4.9 4.0 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.1 3.4 2024 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.4
"no one seems to be focused on is why is Uncle Warren selling so much Bank of America stock? "
A quick peek behind the numbers:
Berkshire began unloading Bank of America stock in July ... Berkshire will no longer have to file with the SEC for any additional sales within two business days as it has had to do so since July. That means that investors may not know whether Berkshire sold additional shares until mid-February when it releases its equity holdings as of Dec. 31, 2024 in its quarterly 13-F filing. ... It’s possible that Berkshire may stop now that its stake is just under 10%, which is less onerous from a regulatory perspective. Or Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett might eliminate the holding entirely as he has done with several other banking stocks formerly held by the company including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Group, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bancorp, and Bank of New York.
The Oracle of Omaha sold a large portion of Berkshire’s holdings in US banks between 2020 and 2022, some just months before the banking system upheaval that began in mid March.
That was just before the inflation rate started its downward march from 9% toward 2%. How did future inflation play into Buffett's decision to sell banks?
Warren Buffett has been concerned by the bank accounting of AFS vs HTM holdings - the problem never went away. This picture is from BRK annual meeting last year. At higher rates, this issue becomes a problem again. So, WB has been dumping banks.
Kind of an interesting take on prices going up and inflation...all I'm stating is that Buffett is selling banks and one of the reasons he might be...and also Druck is shorting bonds which to me means he's thinking yields are going up. So tells me to be careful which banks I have monies at....and what could negatively impact markets.
BTW. If anyone believes the inflation numbers that are spouted, I'd ask if they are the same one's who believed the monthly job creation reports which were recently lowered by what 880 thou? And are they the same folks who were saying crime is down? Laughable, those folks don't know any cops for sure... didn't the FBI just come out and report increase in crime, never mind many blue cities don't even report out on the crime in their cities..bad optics
So ,ya inflation, they have to under report it because otherwise their unconventional fiscal and monetary policy would go all Humpty Dumpty on em...
Hey believe what you want, keep your monies where you want....and have a nice day...
@Baseball_Fan said: "While ya'll arguing over who is taller while laying on their back....you know what I mean... "
"We all" aren't even talking about anything remotely similar. However, your champion Mr Trump seems to have a fixation on and a lot of recent comments regarding Arnold Palmer in that area. You appear to share his interest in that sort of thing... different strokes for different folks, I guess.
I will not argue that the jobs and inflation statistics are the least bit accurate--- except in comparison to themselves, month by month. Tariffs are stoopid. And I just early-voted for Jill Stein. The lesser of 3 evils. But in comparison to the Orange Unit in particular, she is an absolute Savior. And we get the leaders we deserve.
Trumpsie felt comfortable today at Mcdonalds, surrounded by other small fries. wink wink
Well, If he wins, can't wait to see how these tariffs work out. Tariffs that never worked out well for us before? Somehow this time will be different, huh. Didn't Trump's tariffs eventually help stoke the inflation we had recently witnessed? Hmmmmm.
Pass the baton back to a guy who filed for bankruptcy 7 different times via his various casinos and The Plaza Hotel. And did he ever get Mexico to pay for that wall?
(Excerpt for those unable to pull up the full story + accompanying data)
“Most economists think inflation, interest rates and deficits would be higher under the policies former President Donald Trump would pursue in a second administration than under those proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal.
“The results of the Oct. 4-8 survey echoed those of the Journal’s survey in July, when Trump was facing President Biden. Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, and Harris became the nominee shortly afterward.
“Since then, both Harris and Trump have released significant new policy proposals. Harris, for example, has called for new credits for newborn children and home buying, while Trump has proposed tax cuts on overtime pay and Social Security benefits, and breaks for auto-loan interest and state and local taxes.
“Of the 50 economists who responded to the survey’s question on inflation, 68% said prices would rise faster under Trump than under Harris. That was up from 56% in July. Only 12% of the economists thought inflation would be higher under a Harris presidency, while the remainder saw no material difference between the candidates.”
Story: ”Economists Say Inflation, Deficits Will Be Higher Under Trump Than Harris” By Paul Kiernan and Anthony DeBarros Published in The Wall Street Journal / October 14, 2024
Thanks @bee for repositioning this. It’s one of the more interesting threads to appear on MFO this year.
@FD - You have conveniently responded to my post about projected Inflation with a straw-manmarket sentiment case aired by right-leaning CNBC based on “day-after” Wall Street traders’ reaction to Trump’s 2016 election. Since when does a single day of trading tell us anything about the economic success of an administration?
Re the second article you linked (I’m not a great admirer of Krugman) - Krugman may have been correct in his recession call had not the covid pandemic come along. Remember the massive stimulus provided by the government and also highly stimulative actions by the Fed (like backstopping corporate bonds)? I’ll say it was nice getting those “free” checks in the mail. So, it’s hard to know whether or not a recession would have ensued. A most unusual economic period.
In addition to not refuting the WSJ article you pretend to, neither of your posted articles contains the wide breadth of professional opinion presented by the WSJ article. I’ll put the WSJ ahead of either CNBC or Politico for objective journalism - though some will disagree. And I’ll personally put the WSJ’s reporting far ahead of your own thinly supported assertions in this thread. (Aside from that - I think you’re a pretty good guy.)
I got it Hank, when you don't like something it's biased. The economists in 2016, see the quote below, talked about the economy not the stock market.
A group of 20 Nobel Prize–winning economists warned last week that a Trump presidency could “jeopardize the foundations of American prosperity and the global economy.”
I'm especially "impressed" by your post "Neither of your posts contains the scope of opinions presented"
Economics is not a fail-safe, foolproof science (or Art.) Because people are too unruly. Broad, tried and true assertions make more sense than arbitrarily chosen slices or snippets or isolated sadistics. Economics, Economists, Theology, Doctrine: they make sense only when you keep the Bigger Picture in mind.
The Bigger Picture re: Tariffs is that they suck. They don't have to suck, automatically; they suck only in relation to the way people and governments and economies react to tariffs. And that's pretty much the Big Picture.
The Orange Criminal wants to ball himself up into a fetal position and fend off reality from there. Did you know that there's no word in the English language that rhymes with "Orange?" Tariffs or not, what kind of country possesses half of an electorate who's willing AGAIN to vote for an amoral Orange lump? Ah, THERE'S that pesky Big Picture again...
Meanwhile, back at the ranch: The Russian ongoing attempted coup within Transnistria conducted by the Russian Poot-fart and his Kremlin doink-friends has complicated the Moldova election. Plus, a Pootin-friendly oligarch has been BUYING votes. (ALMOST like uncle ELON.) And as we all know, the Poot-germ is a great friend of the Orange Convicted Felon. Just what this country needs, eh? https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1wnr5qdxe7o
Trump is a liar and a thief? The Bidens took millions doing nothing by using Joe Biden's name from several countries.
Antisemitism? Highest https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wkxv9d99vo In about a year "The more than 10,000 episodes of antisemitism reported by the ADL included roughly 8,015 incidents of verbal or written harassment, 1,840 incidents of vandalism and 150 incidents of physical assault."
The orange man? We had the bobble head man for 3 years and you loved him while he was sleeping on the job with no clue.
Trump is a liar and a thief? The Bidens took millions doing nothing by using Joe Biden's name from several countries.
Antisemitism? Highest https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wkxv9d99vo In about a year "The more than 10,000 episodes of antisemitism reported by the ADL included roughly 8,015 incidents of verbal or written harassment, 1,840 incidents of vandalism and 150 incidents of physical assault."
The orange man? We had the bobble head man for 3 years and you loved him while he was sleeping on the job with no clue.
The usual. TDS.
ADL is a caricature of itself. Anyone who breathes the wrong way gets accused by them of antisemitism. They are just full of **it, anymore. And disagreeing with the policies of the State of Israel is not antisemitism. ADL wants to conflate the two.
Don't blame Joe for whatever Hunter might have done. Do you actually think Hillary PAID to smear DONALD THE ORANGE FART? Believe me, he needs no help, getting into trouble. Meddling to hold the Presidency after his election loss. STEALING classified docs. THIRTY FOUR felony convictions for payments made to influence an election.
MORE than I care about tariffs, immigration policies, economic policies, crime and so on, I care about the "character" of the individual that I am entrusting to create and implement changes and/or adjustments to said issues of concern. How much larger my bank account becomes means nothing if women are not treated equally, if children and their families are going hungry, if citizens with lesser means can not access competent medical care, if people are going without affordable and safe housing and shelter. Trump and all his allies and devotees has shown time and time again that he and they have no interest whatsoever in any of these issues. Diddly. Squat. Zero. Nada. Zip point s**t. They are not by anyone's or anyone's religion, god or creed an example of what it means to be a decent human being. Not anywhere close! I will never ever give such an individual my vote (approval) to carry out an agenda such as that. And I did not put myself in harms way to support such characters. Stick your TDS where the sun don't shine.
Comments
THANK YOU @FD1000 !
https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/
That’s the most unkindest cut of all Sir!
I believe it truly remarkable how little politics has surfaced in the investment portion of MFO in recent months. Quite remarkable considering the heated temperament across the public media and probably the highest level of public interest ever in any U.S. election. I can think of only two prominent threads with potential political overtones over a very long stretch of time. This thread represents one. The other is DJT in your portfolio. To everyone’s credit most, if not all, of the interaction in both threads has been civil.
For politics, I invite you check out the Off Topic section. which serves as a refuge for those of us who wish to discuss areas not directly related to investing - including politics. It must work, because there has been up to now so little politics in the investing section. I don’t know your political persuasion, and frankly don’t care. But you have no business disparaging the vast majority here who provide thoughtful fund related investment information, advice and reflection.
Other than these two, I cannot recall any recent similar transgression by anyone on either side of the political divide. As in the larger national political scene it is primarily Trump partisans who feel free to violate virtually every normal convention of civility and fact-based commentary.
If Trump should once again become president we should not be surprised if he makes every effort to suppress the opinions and commentary of those of us who do not agree with him. He has, after all, told us that he is quite willing to use the National Guard and even the Army to do exactly that.
Unlike the recent postings by @FD1000, these are not fake facts.
Get out there and vote...see you at the polls!
keeps going up?
If by "inflation" you mean prices, prices have been going up continuously YoY every year since the Great Depression, except in 1949, 1955, and 2009 (Great Recession). Nothing new here.
If you mean the rate of inflation, it has been generally trending down (i.e. we have been in disinflation) for the last two years. YoY inflation for each month has declined from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to its current low of 2.4% in Sept. 2024.
YoY inflation by month (transcribed from data.bls.gov):
"no one seems to be focused on is why is Uncle Warren selling so much Bank of America stock? "
A quick peek behind the numbers: https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-sold-bank-of-america-stock-c964381c https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-sells-stakes-in-two-banks-buys-into-capital-one-220257261.html
That was just before the inflation rate started its downward march from 9% toward 2%. How did future inflation play into Buffett's decision to sell banks?
@msf- Have you ever noticed that when someone challenges a fake fact put forward by certain folks they never seem to answer?
BTW. If anyone believes the inflation numbers that are spouted, I'd ask if they are the same one's who believed the monthly job creation reports which were recently lowered by what 880 thou? And are they the same folks who were saying crime is down? Laughable, those folks don't know any cops for sure... didn't the FBI just come out and report increase in crime, never mind many blue cities don't even report out on the crime in their cities..bad optics
So ,ya inflation, they have to under report it because otherwise their unconventional fiscal and monetary policy would go all Humpty Dumpty on em...
Hey believe what you want, keep your monies where you want....and have a nice day...
"While ya'll arguing over who is taller while laying on their back....you know what I mean... "
"We all" aren't even talking about anything remotely similar. However, your champion Mr Trump seems to have a fixation on and a lot of recent comments regarding Arnold Palmer in that area. You appear to share his interest in that sort of thing... different strokes for different folks, I guess.
Well, If he wins, can't wait to see how these tariffs work out. Tariffs that never worked out well for us before? Somehow this time will be different, huh. Didn't Trump's tariffs eventually help stoke the inflation we had recently witnessed? Hmmmmm.
Pass the baton back to a guy who filed for bankruptcy 7 different times via his various casinos and The Plaza Hotel. And did he ever get Mexico to pay for that wall?
Pure genius. God Bless America.
FBI Releases 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics
National or State Data Click the tab(s) you wish to explore
I performed no search for alternate data. I hope @BF provides his sources.
Back to the main topic now which is tariffs.
https://www.crisisconnections.org/24-hour-crisis-line/
Economists Say Inflation Would Be Higher Under Trump
(Excerpt for those unable to pull up the full story + accompanying data)
“Most economists think inflation, interest rates and deficits would be higher under the policies former President Donald Trump would pursue in a second administration than under those proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal.
“The results of the Oct. 4-8 survey echoed those of the Journal’s survey in July, when Trump was facing President Biden. Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, and Harris became the nominee shortly afterward.
“Since then, both Harris and Trump have released significant new policy proposals. Harris, for example, has called for new credits for newborn children and home buying, while Trump has proposed tax cuts on overtime pay and Social Security benefits, and breaks for auto-loan interest and state and local taxes.
“Of the 50 economists who responded to the survey’s question on inflation, 68% said prices would rise faster under Trump than under Harris. That was up from 56% in July. Only 12% of the economists thought inflation would be higher under a Harris presidency, while the remainder saw no material difference between the candidates.”
Story: ”Economists Say Inflation, Deficits Will Be Higher Under Trump Than Harris”
By Paul Kiernan and Anthony DeBarros
Published in The Wall Street Journal / October 14, 2024
Thanks @bee for repositioning this. It’s one of the more interesting threads to appear on MFO this year.
I'm "impressed" by these economists...mmm...just as I was in 2016.
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/10/economists-said-trump-presidency-would-be-a-disaster-why-isnt-wall-street-worried-commentary.html
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055
Here’s a better perspective looking back at what actually happened under all 4 years under Trump:
Trump added twice as much to the national debt as Biden .
Re the second article you linked (I’m not a great admirer of Krugman) - Krugman may have been correct in his recession call had not the covid pandemic come along. Remember the massive stimulus provided by the government and also highly stimulative actions by the Fed (like backstopping corporate bonds)? I’ll say it was nice getting those “free” checks in the mail. So, it’s hard to know whether or not a recession would have ensued. A most unusual economic period.
In addition to not refuting the WSJ article you pretend to, neither of your posted articles contains the wide breadth of professional opinion presented by the WSJ article. I’ll put the WSJ ahead of either CNBC or Politico for objective journalism - though some will disagree. And I’ll personally put the WSJ’s reporting far ahead of your own thinly supported assertions in this thread. (Aside from that - I think you’re a pretty good guy.)
The economists in 2016, see the quote below, talked about the economy not the stock market.
A group of 20 Nobel Prize–winning economists warned last week that a Trump presidency could “jeopardize the foundations of American prosperity and the global economy.”
I'm especially "impressed" by your post
"Neither of your posts contains the scope of opinions presented"
BTW, economists never impressed me.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/19/us-economists-wrong-predictions
The Bigger Picture re: Tariffs is that they suck. They don't have to suck, automatically; they suck only in relation to the way people and governments and economies react to tariffs. And that's pretty much the Big Picture.
The Orange Criminal wants to ball himself up into a fetal position and fend off reality from there. Did you know that there's no word in the English language that rhymes with "Orange?" Tariffs or not, what kind of country possesses half of an electorate who's willing AGAIN to vote for an amoral Orange lump? Ah, THERE'S that pesky Big Picture again...
Meanwhile, back at the ranch: The Russian ongoing attempted coup within Transnistria conducted by the Russian Poot-fart and his Kremlin doink-friends has complicated the Moldova election. Plus, a Pootin-friendly oligarch has been BUYING votes. (ALMOST like uncle ELON.) And as we all know, the Poot-germ is a great friend of the Orange Convicted Felon. Just what this country needs, eh?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1wnr5qdxe7o
Russian collusion? Paid by Hilary and executed thu the FBI
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/15/politics/john-durham-report-fbi-trump-released/index.html
Soros has been promoting his lib agenda for years.
https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/soros-buys-over-200-radio-stations-weeks-before-u-s-election/
Trump is a liar and a thief? The Bidens took millions doing nothing by using Joe Biden's name from several countries.
Antisemitism? Highest
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wkxv9d99vo
In about a year "The more than 10,000 episodes of antisemitism reported by the ADL included roughly 8,015 incidents of verbal or written harassment, 1,840 incidents of vandalism and 150 incidents of physical assault."
The orange man? We had the bobble head man for 3 years and you loved him while he was sleeping on the job with no clue.
The usual. TDS.
dDon't blame Joe for whatever Hunter might have done. Do you actually think Hillary PAID to smear DONALD THE ORANGE FART? Believe me, he needs no help, getting into trouble. Meddling to hold the Presidency after his election loss. STEALING classified docs. THIRTY FOUR felony convictions for payments made to influence an election.
But you won't listen. Adios.
supply-chain-latest-new-neutrals-and-geopolitics?srnd=homepage-americas
Agreed! Totally.