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Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts

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  • I drive cars till they quit. We have had great luck with Prius V. Almost 200,000 miles ten years old

    Not as fun to drive s others but best deal I ever made in a car
  • finder said:

    Terrible hurricane, more than 90 confirmed dead... I love my CATs, but I sold 80% of them on Friday. Strangely, they jumped up happily when Helene passed through: on Friday, EMPIX was up 0.19%, CBYYX was up 0.35%, and SHRIX was up 0.44%. Maybe they did not have time to respond, or people became optimistic that Helene hit the less populated area and was no longer a threat. But today, some sources estimated a total loss of about $20 billion, whereas others estimated total damage ~ $100 billion, though only a small part of it may hit CATs. Hopefully tomorrow will bring some clarity.

    Of these three funds, only CBYYX seems to be available to retail clients at Schwab or Fidelity. Where are SHRIX and EMPIX available to retail clients (no access to RIA)?
  • When good news is bad news department:

    Now that I have "prepared" my portfolio for rate cuts, I'm thinking about preparing my portfolio with something like FFRHX again.
  • edited October 5
    WABAC said:
    Thanks for the link. I see this info on the website. The yahoo website is getting hung up on my computer and is not usable but works on my phone. Anyone has a solution? Do not have a problem with other websites.

    So, I have been using the Yahoo Finance App on my tablet but its features are limited. E.g., I was not able to locate the fund purchase info in the App.
  • edited October 4
    Rates cut my portfolio today.
  • edited October 4
    WABAC said:

    When good news is bad news department:

    Now that I have "prepared" my portfolio for rate cuts, I'm thinking about preparing my portfolio with something like FFRHX again.

    I find investing in equities so much easier. Since beginning of 2022, after much deliberation each time, I tried investing in bond funds three times, and each time I ended up selling all within one month for a loss and went back to MM and equivalents.

  • hank said:

    Rates cut my portfolio today.

    Sorry, a bit too cryptic for me to follow.
  • BaluBalu said:

    WABAC said:

    When good news is bad news department:

    Now that I have "prepared" my portfolio for rate cuts, I'm thinking about preparing my portfolio with something like FFRHX again.

    I find investing in equities so much easier. Since beginning of 2022, after much deliberation each time, I tried investing in bond funds three times, and each time I ended up selling all within one month for a loss and went back to MM and equivalents.

    If Monday starts like Friday, I'll be getting shorter and floatier.
  • balubalu: those two funds are not available to retail clients, only CBYYX is, AFAIK.
  • linter said:

    balubalu: those two funds are not available to retail clients, only CBYYX is, AFAIK.

    Thanks.

  • @WABAC, I have to decide if I want to be a trader of bond funds or increase the size of my equity trading account and ride the MM train for a few more months. It is just a question of changing my mindset and expectations.
  • BaluBalu said:

    @WABAC, I have to decide if I want to be a trader of bond funds or increase the size of my equity trading account and ride the MM train for a few more months. It is just a question of changing my mindset and expectations.

    As I mentioned elsewhere, I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX, and maybe take a flier here or there. If I have to jump around to make money in bonds . . . well . . . I won't be happy about it.:)

    I'ld put money in FSUTX, IYK, or GLIFX, but I don't think there's much elbow room in those these days.
  • I can buy and sell EMPIX at Fidelity, but that may be because I invested in it long ago. This may change. CBYYX is available at Fidelity at a low minimum but only for some retirement plans. SHRIX is available no load at InteractiveBrokers, see Mutual Fund Search Tool there. A small problem: it is offered with 500K minimum.

    And tropical storm Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by mid week. Life is never dull.
  • edited October 5
    I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX
    My goodness. No jumping needed. Any of the Riverpark or Crossbridge funds have been doing that since the start of 2023 with the smoothest ride you can ask for (RSIVX, CBLDX for example). Heck, even the ultra-conservative RPHYX has done as well or better than CDs and MMs. Take a look at CSOAX/CSOIX for another smooth ride with a bit more horsepower. 5-star and a great owl fund. I'm sure there are many other examples too.

    MM's, treasuries and CD's have been great if you want zero risk, and that is understandable for many here. But more lucrative options may have opened up many many months ago.

  • MikeM said:

    I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX
    My goodness. No jumping needed. Any of the Riverpark or Crossbridge funds have been doing that since the start of 2023 with the smoothest ride you can ask for (RSIVX, CBLDX for example). Heck, even the ultra-conservative RPHYX has done as well or better than CDs and MMs. Take a look at CSOAX/CSOIX for another smooth ride with a bit more horsepower. 5-star and a great owl fund. I'm sure there are many other examples too.

    MM's, treasuries and CD's have been great if you want zero risk, and that is understandable for many here. But more lucrative options may have opened up many many months ago.

    I'm already underwater with CBLDX.

    I have a limited appetite for junk.

  • edited October 5
    WABAC said:

    MikeM said:

    I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX
    My goodness. No jumping needed. Any of the Riverpark or Crossbridge funds have been doing that since the start of 2023 with the smoothest ride you can ask for (RSIVX, CBLDX for example). Heck, even the ultra-conservative RPHYX has done as well or better than CDs and MMs. Take a look at CSOAX/CSOIX for another smooth ride with a bit more horsepower. 5-star and a great owl fund. I'm sure there are many other examples too.

    MM's, treasuries and CD's have been great if you want zero risk, and that is understandable for many here. But more lucrative options may have opened up many many months ago.

    I'm already underwater with CBLDX.

    I have a limited appetite for junk.

    @WABAC You seem to have as good a handle on bonds as anyone here. So surprised by your comment on CBLDX. On a total return basis it is at an all time high. Or am I missing something. I hold a position in CBLDX as a sub for cash - at least for now.

    https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=CBLDX
  • edited October 6
    As the old joke goes: The secret ofcomedyistiming.

    Bought CBLDX on September 12 for 9.76$ per share. It closed Friday at 9.7549. So it could be around for a while. If M* can be believed, it's return of .05% last week was less than SPAXX's return of .07. M* also had VRIG and USFR ahead of SPAXX, CBLDX, RSIIX, RPHYX. CSOIX was a winner last week, but a loser by too much for me in 2022.

    Things liable to go if we start poorly on Monday are TBUX, USTB, XONE, and WSHNX.
  • A different Weitz fund I own was down -1.11% for the week past. Core-plus. WCPNX. Owned it for a very short period. Not glad about last week, but not rushing for the exits.
  • finder said:

    I can buy and sell EMPIX at Fidelity, but that may be because I invested in it long ago. This may change. CBYYX is available at Fidelity at a low minimum but only for some retirement plans. SHRIX is available no load at InteractiveBrokers, see Mutual Fund Search Tool there. A small problem: it is offered with 500K minimum.

    when CBYYX wasn't open to me at Fidelity, i transferred a single share over from Schwab and then was good to go ... except that F charges a fee for CBYYX trades and S does not.

  • @WABAC, you may have sat in the station too long. The bond-train left the station when discussion and anticipation of lower rates started, around the start of 2023, right around the time many were heavily focused on short-term bond safety. I still believe intermediate duration bond funds are a good bet through 2025, but they may need to rest after getting ahead of themselves on rate cut expectations. Just my 2-cents.
  • Hi @Mike I have been doing OK with THOPX, MNHAX, and WCPNX; knock on wood. And I did alright with FFRHX, VRIG and USFR earlier in the year. I'll hold onto the first three for a while, but I think the other side of the barbell needs to get a lot shorter for possible heavy weather ahead.

    We shall see how I feel tomorrow. I'ld like to give CBLDX a longer chance.

    BTW, I don't have the scratch to buy CSOIX at Fido. CSOAX isn't quite as attractive.

    I've been doing OK with FSUTX, IYK, and GLIFX in my deworsified equity portfolio. So I don't feel the need to stretch for performance with bonds.

  • Ended up holding on to CBLDX, it was actually up last Friday. It had positive returns in 2020 and 2022. That's the kind of bond fund I like. The five year returns are also pretty good, though I doubt we'll be in that sort of rate environment any time soon.

    Sold TBUX, USTB, XONE, and WSHNX. It was too many funds anyway. I will likely consolidate into USFR and VRIG or PULS. Yes, they are boring, but I'm holding onto MNHAX, CBLDX, THOPX, and WCPNX, so there is still some excitement in bond land. Eventually I'll have to consolidate those holdings, but I don't think this is the best time. If the rate environment continues to deteriorate I won't hesitate to lock in profits.
  • edited October 7
    10 yr at 4.02%. Make your prediction for Q4, 2024 peak.
  • WABAC said:

    Ended up holding on to CBLDX, it was actually up last Friday. It had positive returns in 2020 and 2022. That's the kind of bond fund I like. The five year returns are also pretty good, though I doubt we'll be in that sort of rate environment any time soon.

    Sold TBUX, USTB, XONE, and WSHNX. It was too many funds anyway. I will likely consolidate into USFR and VRIG or PULS. Yes, they are boring, but I'm holding onto MNHAX, CBLDX, THOPX, and WCPNX, so there is still some excitement in bond land. Eventually I'll have to consolidate those holdings, but I don't think this is the best time. If the rate environment continues to deteriorate I won't hesitate to lock in profits.

    All I have left is HOSIX, SCFZX, CBLDX, and SEMMX/PX. The later on a short leash. Keep wanting to buy AHTFX and JSVIX on a downdraft but never sure when the downdraft will become something more ominous. Stating the obvious, oil is causing a big problem for bonds. You were among the first to go back in THOPX so hope it continues to work for you.

  • Junkster said:

    WABAC said:

    Ended up holding on to CBLDX, it was actually up last Friday. It had positive returns in 2020 and 2022. That's the kind of bond fund I like. The five year returns are also pretty good, though I doubt we'll be in that sort of rate environment any time soon.

    Sold TBUX, USTB, XONE, and WSHNX. It was too many funds anyway. I will likely consolidate into USFR and VRIG or PULS. Yes, they are boring, but I'm holding onto MNHAX, CBLDX, THOPX, and WCPNX, so there is still some excitement in bond land. Eventually I'll have to consolidate those holdings, but I don't think this is the best time. If the rate environment continues to deteriorate I won't hesitate to lock in profits.

    All I have left is HOSIX, SCFZX, CBLDX, and SEMMX/PX. The later on a short leash. Keep wanting to buy AHTFX and JSVIX on a downdraft but never sure when the downdraft will become something more ominous. Stating the obvious, oil is causing a big problem for bonds. You were among the first to go back in THOPX so hope it continues to work for you.
    I thought THOPX would be temporary to begin with. I'm guessing it will make way for WCPNX, CBLDX, and MNHAX over some period of time. But hard to tell when that day will come.

    I don't expect rates to go up the way they did in 2022. So dividends should cover some of the pain on the longer duration funds.

    I'll add your funds to my bond watch list.
  • Good thing I didn't sell CBLDX. It was the only thing in the green in my IRA today.

    Sometimes I crack myself up. :)
  • linter said:

    balubalu: here's what happened last may, tho i don't fully understand it: https://www.artemis.bm/news/cat-bond-market-suffers-one-of-its-biggest-non-loss-event-weekly-declines-icosa/. other than that drop, i don't see any other significant ones in the past year or two.

    Today, EMPIX is down 2.4%, SHRIX down 3.13%, but CBYYX is unchanged. Very inconsistent if the effect is from Helene devastation. On May 3rd, CBYYX was hit the hardest and SHRIX was unchanged.
  • @WABAC: even OSTIX was down a penny. On the back of SMCI (+15.79%), DGIFX and NAEIX rose today. Comeuppance sure to follow soon.
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