Subramanian is head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, and was the kickoff speaker for the conference. She made three sorts of arguments:
1. most market forecast models are completely useless. BoA has reviewed their performance and they have an R-squared of zero. That is, there is zero predictive validity in them. (Which models, exactly? For what time frames? Doesn't say, presumably because they would only slow things down.)
In addition, most strategists are contrarian indicators; the more they are enthused, the worse the market's forward returns. BoA has a timing model based on that: they survey strategies for their recommended equity exposure in a balanced portfolio. BoA has discovered that the best buy signal is when the average recommendation drops below 51.3% and the best sell signal is when it hits 58%. They survey 20 strategists monthly (I believe) and the current rec is about 55%, which she describes as providing a lack of guidance.
(What, you ask, is the genesis of this model? She seems not to know where it came from; she inherited it from her predecessor, Rich Bernstein, and suspects that he inherited it from his predecessor. What is that R-squared of BoA's model? No hint. And since she had a schedule conflict and had to leave right after her talk rather than do the promising Q&A with journalists.)
2. the market is in a good place just now. Traditional valuation metrics are all wrong since they're premised on an economy that no longer exists. Dynamic industries are asset-light, so book value is largely meaningless. Subscriptions have replaced sales. Inflation at 2-4% is positive for equities. Inflows are strong. The equity risk premium is historically low. US companies have been replacing people with AI which is good because "people are risky, processes are predictable." (Climate change doesn't exist, elections don't matter, we're on a permanently high plateau for ... sorry, that's an editorial aside.)
3. large cap value is the coming sweet spot. Pensions and hedge fund have become dramatically underweight publicly traded equities in favor of private equity, but the attraction of the latter is fading as correlations rise and gains are arbitraged away. In particular, she projects that boomers will need income, that fixed-income isn't attractive (we recently reached, she reports, a 5,000 year low in interest rates), and so there will be a migration to equity-income strategies centered on dividend-paying stocks. Prior to 2013, 50% of equity returns came from dividends (a troubled statement depending on the time-frame since, as she notes above, the economy has changed) and that might recur. Meta and Alphabet are both looking to initiate dividends, a sign of big tech growth stocks are maturing into more traditional corporations. Some IPOs have even played with the idea of incorporating a dividend into their initial offering (my head hurts). Sectors like energy (companies that are now rewarding their executives for decarbonizing and cash return rather than on meeting production targets), tech and financials stand to benefit.
Comments
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/business/stocks-dispersion-trade.html?unlocked_article_code=1.3E0.HBQh.x-VUT6N-gkjp&smid=url-share
In terms of models, I had to chuckle. First they say models are meaningless, and then they discuss how their models work best? Not sure I can brain that one.....
Asset light? I don't mean to make a prediction, but maybe they aren't thinking about rising mercantilist sentiments and re-shoring. Chinese EV factories aren't a subscription. World-wide economic populism doesn't seem interested in stinking subscriptions.
Valuations are all wrong, but value is the next big thing. Value without assets. Hooray.
It would be nice if value was the next new thing. I own a lovely chunk of DODGX that has been toiling along for years. But I read somewhere that predictions are useless.
What's all this talk about income? What happened to total return?
In my grandfather's day these lines of arguments were described as BS, for Blue Sky, of course.
If 1+2 above are correct then Subramanian models and predictions are useless too.
Quote "we recently reached, she reports, a 5,000 year low in interest rates" is false of course.
See (link1) (link2) and look at 5 years.
==============
Subramanian like most others, can't make predictions either. Just 2 examples:
On 11-21-2023 (link) "‘Stock Picker’s Paradise’: Bank Of America Strategists Predict S&P 500 Hitting Record High In 2024" + " S&P 500 closing 2024 at 5,000"
So far wrong on both, SPY/QQQ are doing great, no need to pick anything. SP500 is already at 5460.
On 12-03-2021 (link)
Listen to the interview around 2:05, "Stocks are not in a bubble."
The SP500 lost about 24% at the bottom in 2022.
So, looking at my dirty crystal ball, value COULD be the next thing, after all, it's been behind since 2009, but I have heard that EM, SC, and Value are surely the next thing for years already
BTW, what exactly is VALUE investing? another tricky question. When NVDA PE in late 2023 was in the thirties, was that a value?
Schwab tells us (https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/ways-to-approach-falling-interest-rates)....when rates fall, "to look at high-quality stocks that are well positioned to continue servicing their debts"...mmm...isn't the high-quality stocks the ones at the top with huge cash and no debt?
hey, that's MY model , where's my royalties?
I had FMIJX in the IRA for years. Don't know why I didn't consider FMIMX.
(And now, my market forecast model: "large cap value is the coming sweet spot.")
H'mmm .... There would seem to be some sort of disconnect there, but maybe it's just me.
Then I imagined if this person was our 'investment advisor' and was expressing how he/she could build us a better portfolio.
I don't think so.....
Remain curious,
Catch
This is good news. No, really. We've become so accustomed to reading stories about how monkeys throwing darts can do better than these professionals that it's nice to hear that the professionals have caught up with the simians.
OTOH, it means we can no longer use market forecasts as contrary indicators.
... and if I continue following the advice of my Magic Eight Ball and/or my Random Ticker Selection Algorithm(tm) I'll be just fine, right?
I recently had both Magic Eight Balls detailed on the outside, not unlike a car being detailed. I have also awaited and now received the set of Nvidia chips I ordered; and they have been installed.
I have both of them set for a variety of technical indicators, which have served our house well over the years; versus, well, the humans who talk about the markets, as well as many advisors. As we are on the 'senior investor' side of things, it is much easier to maintain a very simple portfolio and remain satisfied.
I like the specificity here. I’ll have Siri remind me to sell in 5 years.
This sounds about right.
"... and if I continue following the advice of my Magic Eight Ball and/or my Random Ticker Selection Algorithm(tm) I'll be just fine, right?"
You'll probably be no worse off than if you followed the advice of market prognosticators!
Oppenheimer Asset Management is bullish on equities as H2 kicks off.
How about the truth...the SP500 has been positive at about 80% since 1980 every year. We don't have a clue what the SP500 will do in the short+long term.
With that in mind, we are going to be honest and stop making any predictions.
or
Maybe any time an "expert" talks on TV, the host should pull out his/her record and challenge them. If they do that, no expert would show up and they would not have any shows. What a joke?
Truthfully, I love these shows and experts because I giggle watching them.
I have been hearing this for over 40 years
Think Peter Lynch.
NOTE: Don't be fooled by the performance of some LCV funds this year. Under the hoods of many of them that have performed well YTD, you will find a significant slant towards growth with very familiar names like NVDA etal. Conversely, a true LCV fund like OAKMX is UP a paltry ~6% YTD.
Almost nothing other than the Mag 7 has been up more than 5 to 10% this year.
6% in six months would, in any other year, be considered an excellent performance. It is only in comparison to NVDA or QQQ that OAKMX looks bad.
Comparing value stocks to NVDA is really impossible, as they have almost nothing in common.
I have always been leery of Momentum as it can turn on a dime and I am not quick enough to get on early and always get off late. Having said that I did buy a little NVDA in March.
Consistency of earnings, reasonable prices for cash flow etc are much more useful metrics to me
"6% in six months would, in any other year, be considered an excellent performance. It is only in comparison to NVDA or QQQ that OAKMX looks bad."
I DID NOT compare value stocks to NVDA. I noted what I trust many posters here are NOT aware of in relation to some LCV funds this year. That is, chances are, the LCV OEFs that are significantly outperforming their peers YTD are slanted towards Growth and/or have names like NVDA in the fold.
Truth be told, OAKMX's 6% YTD performance thru 06/30/24 is far from "excellent" for this fund. It's 5-yr average annual TR is 16.5%, so it is trailing that on a 6-month basis. Its 10-yr average is 11.5%, so on par with that on a 6-month basis, or effectively an average TR for 6 months over the past 10 years.
But you REALLY lost me with this zinger:
"Almost nothing other than the Mag 7 has been up more than 5 to 10% this year."
Here are the 226/500, or 45+% of the S&P stocks that are UP over 6% YTD.
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance
Excerpt:
S&P 500 Component Year to Date Returns
# Company Symbol YTD Return
1 SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC SMCI 194.51%
2 NVIDIA CORP NVDA 147.72%
3 VISTRA CORP VST 127.67%
4 CONSTELLATION ENERGY CEG 76.36%
5 ELI LILLY + CO LLY 55.55%
6 MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC MU 55.37%
7 ARISTA NETWORKS INC ANET 51.59%
8 CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS INC A CRWD 50.81%
9 TARGA RESOURCES CORP TRGP 50.80%
10 NRG ENERGY INC NRG 50.66%
11 WESTERN DIGITAL CORP WDC 49.04%
12 APPLIED MATERIALS INC AMAT 48.61%
13 BROADCOM INC AVGO 48.49%
14 NETAPP INC NTAP 47.32%
15 KLA CORP KLAC 44.35%
16 HOWMET AEROSPACE INC HWM 44.25%
17 META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A META 43.94%
18 DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP DECK 40.72%
19 NETFLIX INC NFLX 39.58%
20 QUALCOMM INC QCOM 38.39%
21 TERADYNE INC TER 37.85%
22 LAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX 36.97%
23 AMPHENOL CORP CL A APH 36.29%
24 ORACLE CORP ORCL 35.90%
25 LEIDOS HOLDINGS INC LDOS 34.76%
26 GODADDY INC CLASS A GDDY 34.65%
27 ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD ACGL 34.64%
28 CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC CMG 34.24%
29 TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLC TT 33.18%
30 ALPHABET INC CL A GOOGL 32.61%
31 PROGRESSIVE CORP PGR 32.55%
32 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP BSX 32.42%
33 ALPHABET INC CL C GOOG 32.41%
34 DAVITA INC DVA 32.16%
35 DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC FANG 32.13%
36 AMAZON.COM INC AMZN 31.63%
37 FAIR ISAAC CORP FICO 31.39%
38 MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC MPWR 31.38%
39 GENERAL MOTORS CO GM 30.71%
40 COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP COST 30.19%
41 EATON CORP PLC ETN 30.09%
42 INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC ISRG 30.07%
43 IRON MOUNTAIN INC IRM 29.82%
44 WALMART INC WMT 29.53%
45 KKR + CO INC KKR 27.86%
46 GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE 26.50%
47 TRANSDIGM GROUP INC TDG 26.34%
48 MCKESSON CORP MCK 26.32%
49 CORNING INC GLW 26.08%
50 BROWN + BROWN INC BRO 26.07%
51 AMERICAN EXPRESS CO AXP 25.96%
52 FIRST SOLAR INC FSLR 25.80%
53 SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL SYF 25.77%
54 CITIGROUP INC C 25.74%
55 GARMIN LTD GRMN 25.63%
56 FIDELITY NATIONAL INFO SERV FIS 25.24%
57 CATALENT INC CTLT 25.08%
58 HARTFORD FINANCIAL SVCS GRP HIG 24.45%
59 HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE HPE 24.38%
60 JUNIPER NETWORKS INC JNPR 24.05%
61 WELLS FARGO + CO WFC 23.87%
62 TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY TSCO 23.72%
63 MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS INC MSI 23.53%
64 JPMORGAN CHASE + CO JPM 22.77%
65 WABTEC CORP WAB 22.52%
66 MICROSOFT CORP MSFT 22.14%
67 EBAY INC EBAY 22.08%
68 TYLER TECHNOLOGIES INC TYL 21.74%
69 BANK OF AMERICA CORP BAC 21.56%
70 VALERO ENERGY CORP VLO 21.51%
71 WILLIAMS COS INC WMB 21.45%
72 GE VERNOVA INC GEV 21.29%
73 UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES B UHS 21.18%
74 ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD RCL 20.94%
75 SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS STX 20.80%
76 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC GS 20.70%
77 COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO CL 20.59%
78 INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO IP 20.33%
79 PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GP PEG 20.33%
80 EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP EW 19.65%
81 DOMINO S PIZZA INC DPZ 19.50%
82 RTX CORP RTX 19.34%
83 REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS REGN 18.94%
84 DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES DFS 18.81%
85 ECOLAB INC ECL 18.81%
86 NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV NXPI 18.44%
87 HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS IN HLT 18.40%
88 SYNOPSYS INC SNPS 18.40%
89 MARATHON OIL CORP MRO 18.29%
90 HCA HEALTHCARE INC HCA 18.11%
91 FEDEX CORP FDX 17.89%
92 MODERNA INC MRNA 17.72%
93 WELLTOWER INC WELL 17.52%
94 WESTROCK CO WRK 17.51%
95 TJX COMPANIES INC TJX 17.47%
96 MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP MPC 17.38%
97 ONEOK INC OKE 17.25%
98 INGERSOLL RAND INC IR 17.22%
99 MERCK + CO. INC. MRK 17.15%
100 REPUBLIC SERVICES INC RSG 17.13%
101 RALPH LAUREN CORP RL 17.02%
102 INTL FLAVORS + FRAGRANCES IFF 17.01%
103 WASTE MANAGEMENT INC WM 16.96%
104 CINTAS CORP CTAS 16.87%
105 UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS INC UAL 16.82%
106 FOX CORP CLASS B FOX 16.82%
107 ARTHUR J GALLAGHER + CO AJG 16.51%
108 VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC VRTX 16.44%
109 TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC TXN 16.40%
110 CADENCE DESIGN SYS INC CDNS 16.31%
111 BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP BK 16.23%
112 FOX CORP CLASS A FOXA 16.21%
113 DELTA AIR LINES INC DAL 16.11%
114 NEXTERA ENERGY INC NEE 16.02%
115 XYLEM INC XYL 15.66%
116 HP INC HPQ 15.65%
117 PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC PANW 15.45%
118 JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATION JCI 15.06%
119 DOVER CORP DOV 15.05%
120 ANALOG DEVICES INC ADI 14.95%
121 CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP CINF 14.88%
122 QUANTA SERVICES INC PWR 14.82%
123 UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC UBER 14.78%
124 VERALTO CORP VLTO 14.70%
125 ALLSTATE CORP ALL 14.43%
126 FREEPORT MCMORAN INC FCX 14.42%
127 APPLE INC AAPL 14.41%
128 PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC PRU 14.31%
129 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC AMP 14.23%
130 EXXON MOBIL CORP XOM 14.20%
131 ALTRIA GROUP INC MO 14.15%
132 BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CL B BRK.B 14.14%
133 VERISK ANALYTICS INC VRSK 14.02%
134 ELEVANCE HEALTH INC ELV 13.65%
135 DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC DLR 13.62%
136 KIMBERLY CLARK CORP KMB 13.56%
137 AXON ENTERPRISE INC AXON 13.49%
138 ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP CL A ZBRA 13.43%
139 AIRBNB INC CLASS A ABNB 13.37%
140 CHUBB LTD CB 13.08%
141 UNITED RENTALS INC URI 12.64%
142 ROLLINS INC ROL 12.55%
143 NEWS CORP CLASS A NWSA 12.55%
144 FISERV INC FI 12.46%
145 SERVICENOW INC NOW 12.40%
146 EMERSON ELECTRIC CO EMR 12.27%
147 T MOBILE US INC TMUS 12.26%
148 AT+T INC T 12.16%
149 WR BERKLEY CORP WRB 12.01%
150 MARSH + MCLENNAN COS MMC 11.89%
151 METTLER TOLEDO INTERNATIONAL MTD 11.88%
152 PROCTER + GAMBLE CO/THE PG 11.85%
153 KINDER MORGAN INC KMI 11.79%
154 HASBRO INC HAS 11.75%
155 CUMMINS INC CMI 11.68%
156 STRYKER CORP SYK 11.63%
157 COPART INC CPRT 11.61%
158 EQUITY RESIDENTIAL EQR 11.51%
159 CHURCH + DWIGHT CO INC CHD 11.51%
160 ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES AMD 11.46%
161 HUBBELL INC HUBB 11.21%
162 AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP AIG 11.19%
163 AUTOZONE INC AZO 11.00%
164 CATERPILLAR INC CAT 10.85%
165 WW GRAINGER INC GWW 10.77%
166 PARKER HANNIFIN CORP PH 10.71%
167 M + T BANK CORP MTB 10.69%
168 SOUTHERN CO/THE SO 10.60%
169 NEWS CORP CLASS B NWS 10.50%
170 BOOKING HOLDINGS INC BKNG 10.40%
171 KROGER CO KR 10.33%
172 TAPESTRY INC TPR 10.13%
173 CORTEVA INC CTVA 10.12%
174 ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST INC ESS 10.10%
175 RESMED INC RMD 10.07%
176 GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP GD 10.07%
177 CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP CFG 9.78%
178 CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST CPT 9.71%
179 INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE IN ICE 9.65%
180 RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC RJF 9.49%
181 GEN DIGITAL INC GEN 9.38%
182 CARRIER GLOBAL CORP CARR 9.36%
183 BUNGE GLOBAL SA BG 9.34%
184 O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC ORLY 9.16%
185 MOODY S CORP MCO 9.08%
186 AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC AVB 9.07%
187 VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC VZ 9.02%
188 PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA PKG 8.96%
189 THE CIGNA GROUP CI 8.84%
190 WILLIS TOWERS WATSON PLC WTW 8.67%
191 STEEL DYNAMICS INC STLD 8.64%
192 WALT DISNEY CO/THE DIS 8.53%
193 INTL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP IBM 8.41%
194 AFLAC INC AFL 8.40%
195 CENCORA INC COR 8.34%
196 PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL PM 8.04%
197 VULCAN MATERIALS CO VMC 7.96%
198 AMGEN INC AMGN 7.90%
199 AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER AEP 7.88%
200 SCHWAB (CHARLES) CORP SCHW 7.78%
201 LOEWS CORP L 7.69%
202 NISOURCE INC NI 7.61%
203 OTIS WORLDWIDE CORP OTIS 7.24%
204 FIFTH THIRD BANCORP FITB 7.22%
205 MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS MLM 7.20%
206 COCA COLA CO/THE KO 7.16%
207 TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP TFC 7.15%
208 CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP COF 7.14%
209 CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC A STZ 7.11%
210 ABBVIE INC ABBV 7.09%
211 UDR INC UDR 7.05%
212 TRAVELERS COS INC/THE TRV 6.91%
213 MORGAN STANLEY MS 6.86%
214 TE CONNECTIVITY LTD TEL 6.72%
215 TEXTRON INC TXT 6.67%
216 CENTERPOINT ENERGY INC CNP 6.62%
217 MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC MHK 6.60%
218 NVR INC NVR 6.57%
219 TYSON FOODS INC CL A TSN 6.46%
220 MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL CL A MAR 6.42%
221 T ROWE PRICE GROUP INC TROW 6.42%
222 AVERY DENNISON CORP AVY 6.41%
223 GENERAC HOLDINGS INC GNRC 6.24%
224 L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES INC LHX 6.16%
225 EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO EMN 6.16%
226 JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC J 6.14%