Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Reading through the various discussion forums at mfo one gets the sense the mood is improving.
I’ve noticed the same thing. A year ago there seemed much more discussion of the approaching recession and the duel bear markets which were ravaging both stocks and bonds. In vogue were: I-Bonds, TIPS & Cash.
One topic that never grows old is PRWCX. I’ve begun a new drinking game whereby I down a shot of favorite spirit every time it gets mentioned. Double that if Giroux’s name is mentioned along side..
My personal observation of posts at this and other forums is that the forum moods correlate well with the AAII Sentiment Survey (posted weekly here), but not so much with institutional or professional sentiment surveys.
The AAII Sentiment has improved significantly. So have the other quantitative (sentiment) measures such as %Above 50-dMA.
@Devo, being contrarian, sentiment is too bullish near the market tops, too bearish near the market bottoms.
I personally don't sell much when sentiment is negative.
Attempts for sentiment-based trading haven't worked. The so-called Bull-Bear Indicators and Greed-Fear Gauges are simplistic and hyped too much in the media.
Sold generic S&P 600 and 400 funds and partly replaced them with SYLD and RWJ in the taxable. I have Vanguard value funds in small and midcap that ought to be labelled as blends. Started a small position in SPGP, a popular buy last week.
Added FMIMX to the IRA. Current theory is this will be a boring smid for the long term in the IRA as I slowly trim my collection.
Small and mid cap remains cheap. FMIMX is still at 13.68 PE.
The return of value didn't last long.
Summer has been mild so far in Maricopa county.
I expect buying opportunities in the fall. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.
My preference is to look for buys when sentiment is negative and hardly ever when bullish unless we're coming off a blowup to the downside.
I agree @Mark. I suspect however the bullish sentiment is still in the early stages. Hell, Barron’s just went bullish one week ago.
Like Yogi & some others here, I’ve lightened up a bit on risk assets the past month or so - from overweight to just slightly underweight. But with 75% now in a static “hands-off” portfolio there’s not a lot of digression afforded me anymore. That said, there’s a couple stocks and 1 CEF in the static portfolio which are nice to play around with, adding a few shares on dips and selling small amounts on rips.
Trap door market coming soon? AI bubblicious? Tax receipts way down. Ukraine Russia war getting even bloodier? Waaaaay overvalued stonk market? Hmm
@Baseball_Fan - You made a wise call start of 2022 in choosing HSGFX. Hussie’s not doing so well this year with HSGFX down 9.75% YTD (Reversion to the Mean?) I don’t know where equities are going from here. Your guess at least as good as mine (probably better). I’ve carried a 2-2.5% short position on the S&P for several months and intend to keep it. Of course it hurts a little. My thinking, however, is that it allows me to take additional market risk in other areas.
One (independent) article in Barron’s this week suggests that the VIX might be the most undervalued / potentially profitable investment going presently. (To be clear, that’s not the position of Barron’s.)
Thanks for your post, Pay My Bills.....lol. We'll see....it could take a while. Maybe start out with some longnecks and move up to a good bottle of whiskey if things go well. That would do for the short term.
God bless the Pudd
P.S., I did see we're probably going to have a budget fight in October. So that should liven things up in the fall.
I think it’s hard not to feel more bullish while the Nasdaq rises faster than the other major indices. The problem is figuring out if it’s a temporary phenomenon. For my part, I have dialed back on value (esp. COWZ) and put proceeds into growth (CGGR, WINN). International growth has also been rewarding this year for the first time in quite a while. Japan and Europe seem to have shaken off the blues. CGXU is an ETF I like. FWIIW, I commit a relatively small slice of my portfolio to momentum investing and/or trading. Long-time hold NEAIX has shown its chops YTD.
I work with some self-imposed strictures. Wifey has IRA in BRUFX. That won't get touched for at least another decade or so.
Apart from that, my own IRA is Trad, and all I will do--- if circumstances are favorable--- is to rearrange, not add, in there. No earned income to report means no tax break.
Money I add these days, currently, presently, all goes to a small handful of selected single-stocks and a couple of ETFs.
@WABAC - I’m with ya on that front. It’s challenging to part with 5%+ in mmkt and t-bills, with Mad Magazine’s “what, me worry?” investing tactic.
I don't even have to think about taking dividends or cap gains from the taxable, or drawing down the IRA's. What to do with wife's TIAA? Time to think about that too.
I keep thinking it's going to be rough for equities. That's what people used to say.
@WABAC, from the general description, it seems to be that your wife had an OLDER, dedicated TIAA plan (with TIAA handling all aspects) that was CONVERTED to a NEWER, more flexible TIAA plan that has TIAA only as its recordkeeper. In the flexible plan, funds from various firms are available - but your wife has that funds portions in a m-mkt now.
As a firm, TIAA has certain focus and its advice is tailored for that; other firms do that too (Fido, Schwab, Vanguard).
@yogibearbull, at her first employer there was a quasi defined benefit (pure traditional) along side a contribution aspect (TIAA variable annuity products). Her subsequent TIAA, that offers other products, is part of a state employee retirement plan that she qualified for as a result of her previous association with TIAA.
Thanks for the link. I'll check it out.
Add> Those payout rates look pretty darn good. Might be getting a little help from covid. I'm not sure why I would add bonds over their traditional if I want to get to, say something like 60% equity.
T Rowe Price wouldn’t let me invest in PRWCX, so I sold my largest TRP holding (TRPBX) and bought TCAF. I’m going to pair it with a multi-sector bond fund, probably FADMX.
I’ve held TRPBX for many, many years but its performance has steadily declined. It’s a prime example of “deworsification” — holding way too many foreign stocks and bonds, commodity stocks and a hedge fund. Ironically, all of its diversification hasn’t seemed to help performance in up or down markets. Earlier this year, I exchanged about half of my TRPBX for FBALX, which has been consistently excellent.
Did some selling. Sold PARMX. It's been a long time coming. Wanted to sell it before Covid, but just didn't get it done, so did now. And also sold FMILX. Just taking profits right now. With July (the end of it) and August (the weak spot), I believe will rise.....and the budget battle in October. Things could get a bit wonky. Maybe the money will be deployed at a later date subject to change at a whim....lol. Will look to small and mid to add and FXIAX. After boo time, I think things will get good. I'm one who believes we have and are having a rolling slow down. Things will pick up later or in '24.....just saying.
Did some selling. Sold PARMX. It's been a long time coming. Wanted to sell it before Covid, but just didn't get it done, so did now. And also sold FMILX. Just taking profits right now. With July (the end of it) and August (the weak spot), I believe will rise.....and the budget battle in October. Things could get a bit wonky. Maybe the money will be deployed at a later date subject to change at a whim....lol. Will look to small and mid to add and FXIAX. After boo time, I think things will get good. I'm one who believes we have and are having a rolling slow down. Things will pick up later or in '24.....just saying.
God bless the Pudd
Mid caps have been rough. PARMX has been rougher. Recently sold that with NOMIX and NMSCX out of the taxable. Replaced those with SYLD, RWJ, and SPGP to spice up an account leaning heavily to dividend funds. Put some of the proceeds in a money market.
@WABAC: right on regarding mid-caps, a class that’s often touted as occupying the sweet sweet spot between LC and SC. I have never been able to benefit from such an advantage, whether it was HIMVX or FRTY, to quote a couple of duds I wish I had never bought.
Comments
One topic that never grows old is PRWCX. I’ve begun a new drinking game whereby I down a shot of favorite spirit every time it gets mentioned. Double that if Giroux’s name is mentioned along side..
“ hi Devo “
The AAII Sentiment has improved significantly. So have the other quantitative (sentiment) measures such as %Above 50-dMA.
I personally don't sell much when sentiment is negative.
Attempts for sentiment-based trading haven't worked. The so-called Bull-Bear Indicators and Greed-Fear Gauges are simplistic and hyped too much in the media.
Hmm
I'm glad I bought tech last summer.
Sold generic S&P 600 and 400 funds and partly replaced them with SYLD and RWJ in the taxable. I have Vanguard value funds in small and midcap that ought to be labelled as blends. Started a small position in SPGP, a popular buy last week.
Added FMIMX to the IRA. Current theory is this will be a boring smid for the long term in the IRA as I slowly trim my collection.
Small and mid cap remains cheap. FMIMX is still at 13.68 PE.
The return of value didn't last long.
Summer has been mild so far in Maricopa county.
I expect buying opportunities in the fall. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.
Like Yogi & some others here, I’ve lightened up a bit on risk assets the past month or so - from overweight to just slightly underweight. But with 75% now in a static “hands-off” portfolio there’s not a lot of digression afforded me anymore. That said, there’s a couple stocks and 1 CEF in the static portfolio which are nice to play around with, adding a few shares on dips and selling small amounts on rips.
One (independent) article in Barron’s this week suggests that the VIX might be the most undervalued / potentially profitable investment going presently. (To be clear, that’s not the position of Barron’s.)
Best of luck to you and all.
Thanks for your post, Pay My Bills.....lol. We'll see....it could take a while. Maybe start out with some longnecks and move up to a good bottle of whiskey if things go well. That would do for the short term.
God bless
the Pudd
P.S.,
I did see we're probably going to have a budget fight in October. So that should liven things up in the fall.
Apart from that, my own IRA is Trad, and all I will do--- if circumstances are favorable--- is to rearrange, not add, in there. No earned income to report means no tax break.
Money I add these days, currently, presently, all goes to a small handful of selected single-stocks and a couple of ETFs.
I keep thinking it's going to be rough for equities. That's what people used to say.
Approximately 1/3 is the old traditional, but I don't have the specific letters in front of me. And they do vary, as you know.
There is one chunk that is only traditional.
Another 1/3 had some traditional, that had some specific TIAA variable annuity options attached.
The final 1/3 has some traditional with a few more options from MFS, JP Morgan,Vanguard, T. Rowe Price target dates etc.
Altogether, about 1/3 traditional with various letters attached. And most of the rest converted to money markets for now.
Their robo advisor pushes for a lot more bonds than I would be inclined to go for given the third already in various flavors of traditional.
My wife also has another IRA rollover that is equal in value, but with all the flexibility that etf's allow.
As a firm, TIAA has certain focus and its advice is tailored for that; other firms do that too (Fido, Schwab, Vanguard).
Details of the various flavors of TIAA TRADITIONAL (SV annuity; varying restrictions; among the best around) can be found here, https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1050/thread
Thanks for the link. I'll check it out.
Add> Those payout rates look pretty darn good. Might be getting a little help from covid. I'm not sure why I would add bonds over their traditional if I want to get to, say something like 60% equity.
I’ve held TRPBX for many, many years but its performance has steadily declined. It’s a prime example of “deworsification” — holding way too many foreign stocks and bonds, commodity stocks and a hedge fund. Ironically, all of its diversification hasn’t seemed to help performance in up or down markets. Earlier this year, I exchanged about half of my TRPBX for FBALX, which has been consistently excellent.
Just bought the tiniest of bites in SCHP.
Did some selling. Sold PARMX. It's been a long time coming. Wanted to sell it before Covid, but just didn't get it done, so did now. And also sold FMILX. Just taking profits right now. With July (the end of it) and August (the weak spot), I believe will rise.....and the budget battle in October. Things could get a bit wonky. Maybe the money will be deployed at a later date subject to change at a whim....lol. Will look to small and mid to add and FXIAX. After boo time, I think things will get good. I'm one who believes we have and are having a rolling slow down. Things will pick up later or in '24.....just saying.
God bless
the Pudd