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Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries



  • edited November 2022
    Deleted post
  • sma3: "Maybe the "smart money" assumes that interest rates are going down in 2 to 4 years."

    Personally, I have chosen to not go longer term in CDs. I will stay with a small ladder of shorter term CDs, and if I see the market conditions improving for bond oefs, I have several CDs maturning in the next 1 to 6 months, that will afford me several options for investing decisions. As retired investor in my mid 70s, I just want to preserve principal, and produce a nice total return, with low risk opportunities.
  • Way to go.
  • I have found this guy's daily market commentary very worthwhile. Other than a trading perspective on the market, which I don't use much he has other tidbits. Today he notes that speculators have shorted two year treasuries futures in large amounts, betting that the fed funds rate is going to go up in the next year.

    Nice graph of what market thinks fed funds rate will be out to 2024. Will hit 3.6 after peaking at 4.9 Or higher?

    "Short sellers are betting that Fed Funds futures are underestimating the Fed’s resolve. They must believe that Fed Funds will peak above 4.91 and or not decline as much as futures imply."

  • image

    This is the graph @sma3 was referring to.
  • @Sven

    Thanks. I have never figured out how to copy pictures or graphs.
  • edited November 2022
    sma3 said:


    Thanks. I have never figured out how to copy pictures or graphs.

    Right-click image and copy image-address/URL (not link-address/URL; not all images have this) and then paste in MFO Image tool (3rd from right).
  • yogibearbull said-

    "Right-click image and copy image-address/URL (not link-address/URL; not all images have this) and then paste in MFO Image tool (3rd from right)."

    Additional info: on Firefox browsers, you'll right-click on the desired image and use "Copy Image Location", then, as Yogi says, come back to MFO, click on image tool. That opens a small window where you then paste the Image Location. As Yogi says, not all images have this, and with respect to non-pictorial images (graphs, charts) sometimes not all of the text data will transfer properly.
  • edited November 2022
    For images without address/URL, one can take screenshot, upload to an image hosting site (e.g. free ImgBB). Then use the address/URL from there and follow the steps in the previous post.

  • 2 and 3 year non-callable at 4.85 & 4.9 available this morning at Schwab.
  • @yogibearbull- Thanks very much for that suggestion. For a long time I've been unsuccessfully looking for a resource like ImgBB.

    And it works! My favorite steam engine- Southern Pacific "Daylight" 4449:
    image4449" />

    And a test from a screen capture:

    imagedb-2022-11-17-at-12-03-36-PM" />
  • edited November 2022
    i just tried IMGbb. Still a mystery to me...
    ok, "upload complete." NOW what?
  • Have you authorized a free account and set up a folder for your upload?
  • @Crash, it depends on whether you are using non-login (free) or login (also free; allows storing stuff) version. In the former, the image link may have to be extracted from the URLs provided; in the latter, several links are provided and the image link is called "Direct Link".

    Once you have the image link from ImgBB, use the MFO-Image tool.
  • edited November 2022
    @Crash- Pictured below is the imgBB screen that you should see after creating your folder. I've noted (in red) the steps necessary to make an image from that folder available for view on MFO. Note that if you delete that image from your folder it will no longer be seen on MFO either.


    And the ability to create graphics like this is exactly why I've wanted something like imgBB.
    Thanks again, Yogi!
  • Apologies for the inadvertent hijacking of the "Steady Rising Yields" thread. I don't set out to do this... sometimes these things seem to take on a life of their own.
  • Forty lashes with a wet noodle!
  • great stuff, anyhow. thanks, guys. i'll try it here soon. ah, maybe they key issue is that i forgot to use the mfo IMAGE tool.
  • edited November 2022
    Sharing on how to import images helps everyone. Here is how I do it on Chrome or Safari browsers:
    1. click on the image in the article and it brings up an URL on the browser bar above.
    2. copy the URL and paste into the green "picture" icon above
    2. Run a preview to make sure the picture is loaded properly.

    This works on my desktop and iPad. Enjoy

    By the way, I have been buying 13 weeks, 26 weeks and 52 weeks treasury bills as a ladder at auction. Make sure you put in the orders the evening before the auction date. Here is the schedule posted by @yogibearbull in his earlier post.

    Last week I am late to get the best CDs and purchased only $500. There are new offerings this week. Treasuries at auction is huge where million $ transactions is common among the professional traders.
  • Back to the topic ! Bought CD @ Chucks' place for 1 year, 4.7% . I didn't see that much of an increase to go farther (?) out. I have one maturing tomorrow so just added a bit to the old CD.
  • edited November 2022
    The next rate hike will be in December’s FOMC meeting; most likely 50 bps. So the CDs will rise above 4.7% in mid December. I would add more CDs and treasury bills at that point.

    Also there are several more rounds of rate hikes coming next year. There will be more opportunities to add at higher yields.
  • edited November 2022
    Ka'a Awa Beach. Windward Oahu.
  • edited November 2022
    THERE! but I did not use imgbb.... But it seems to think I did.
  • Well, Crash, you may not know how you did it, but the address of that image is definitely located at ImgBB. The address of that image is:

    By the way- that beach looks almost exactly like the one at our Coast Guard station on Palawan Island in the Philippines, when I was 20/21 and out there for a year. Just maybe the best year of my life.
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