Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
sma3: "Maybe the "smart money" assumes that interest rates are going down in 2 to 4 years."
Personally, I have chosen to not go longer term in CDs. I will stay with a small ladder of shorter term CDs, and if I see the market conditions improving for bond oefs, I have several CDs maturning in the next 1 to 6 months, that will afford me several options for investing decisions. As retired investor in my mid 70s, I just want to preserve principal, and produce a nice total return, with low risk opportunities.
I have found this guy's daily market commentary very worthwhile. Other than a trading perspective on the market, which I don't use much he has other tidbits. Today he notes that speculators have shorted two year treasuries futures in large amounts, betting that the fed funds rate is going to go up in the next year.
Nice graph of what market thinks fed funds rate will be out to 2024. Will hit 3.6 after peaking at 4.9 Or higher?
"Short sellers are betting that Fed Funds futures are underestimating the Fed’s resolve. They must believe that Fed Funds will peak above 4.91 and or not decline as much as futures imply."
"Right-click image and copy image-address/URL (not link-address/URL; not all images have this) and then paste in MFO Image tool (3rd from right)."
Additional info: on Firefox browsers, you'll right-click on the desired image and use "Copy Image Location", then, as Yogi says, come back to MFO, click on image tool. That opens a small window where you then paste the Image Location. As Yogi says, not all images have this, and with respect to non-pictorial images (graphs, charts) sometimes not all of the text data will transfer properly.
For images without address/URL, one can take screenshot, upload to an image hosting site (e.g. free ImgBB). Then use the address/URL from there and follow the steps in the previous post.
@Crash, it depends on whether you are using non-login (free) or login (also free; allows storing stuff) version. In the former, the image link may have to be extracted from the URLs provided; in the latter, several links are provided and the image link is called "Direct Link".
Once you have the image link from ImgBB, use the MFO-Image tool.
@Crash- Pictured below is the imgBB screen that you should see after creating your folder. I've noted (in red) the steps necessary to make an image from that folder available for view on MFO. Note that if you delete that image from your folder it will no longer be seen on MFO either.
And the ability to create graphics like this is exactly why I've wanted something like imgBB. Thanks again, Yogi!
Apologies for the inadvertent hijacking of the "Steady Rising Yields" thread. I don't set out to do this... sometimes these things seem to take on a life of their own.
Sharing on how to import images helps everyone. Here is how I do it on Chrome or Safari browsers: 1. click on the image in the article and it brings up an URL on the browser bar above. 2. copy the URL and paste into the green "picture" icon above 2. Run a preview to make sure the picture is loaded properly.
Last week I am late to get the best CDs and purchased only $500. There are new offerings this week. Treasuries at auction is huge where million $ transactions is common among the professional traders.
Back to the topic ! Bought CD @ Chucks' place for 1 year, 4.7% . I didn't see that much of an increase to go farther (?) out. I have one maturing tomorrow so just added a bit to the old CD.
The next rate hike will be in December’s FOMC meeting; most likely 50 bps. So the CDs will rise above 4.7% in mid December. I would add more CDs and treasury bills at that point.
Also there are several more rounds of rate hikes coming next year. There will be more opportunities to add at higher yields.
By the way- that beach looks almost exactly like the one at our Coast Guard station on Palawan Island in the Philippines, when I was 20/21 and out there for a year. Just maybe the best year of my life.
Comments
Personally, I have chosen to not go longer term in CDs. I will stay with a small ladder of shorter term CDs, and if I see the market conditions improving for bond oefs, I have several CDs maturning in the next 1 to 6 months, that will afford me several options for investing decisions. As retired investor in my mid 70s, I just want to preserve principal, and produce a nice total return, with low risk opportunities.
Nice graph of what market thinks fed funds rate will be out to 2024. Will hit 3.6 after peaking at 4.9 Or higher?
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/target-fedex-and-amazon-caution-about-the-holidays
"Short sellers are betting that Fed Funds futures are underestimating the Fed’s resolve. They must believe that Fed Funds will peak above 4.91 and or not decline as much as futures imply."
This is the graph @sma3 was referring to.
Thanks. I have never figured out how to copy pictures or graphs.
"Right-click image and copy image-address/URL (not link-address/URL; not all images have this) and then paste in MFO Image tool (3rd from right)."
Additional info: on Firefox browsers, you'll right-click on the desired image and use "Copy Image Location", then, as Yogi says, come back to MFO, click on image tool. That opens a small window where you then paste the Image Location. As Yogi says, not all images have this, and with respect to non-pictorial images (graphs, charts) sometimes not all of the text data will transfer properly.
More https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59179/posting-images#latest
And it works! My favorite steam engine- Southern Pacific "Daylight" 4449:
And a test from a screen capture:
ok, "upload complete." NOW what?
Once you have the image link from ImgBB, use the MFO-Image tool.
And the ability to create graphics like this is exactly why I've wanted something like imgBB.
Thanks again, Yogi!
1. click on the image in the article and it brings up an URL on the browser bar above.
2. copy the URL and paste into the green "picture" icon above
2. Run a preview to make sure the picture is loaded properly.
This works on my desktop and iPad. Enjoy
By the way, I have been buying 13 weeks, 26 weeks and 52 weeks treasury bills as a ladder at auction. Make sure you put in the orders the evening before the auction date. Here is the schedule posted by @yogibearbull in his earlier post.
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/Tentative-Auction-Schedule.pdf
Last week I am late to get the best CDs and purchased only $500. There are new offerings this week. Treasuries at auction is huge where million $ transactions is common among the professional traders.
Also there are several more rounds of rate hikes coming next year. There will be more opportunities to add at higher yields.
By the way- that beach looks almost exactly like the one at our Coast Guard station on Palawan Island in the Philippines, when I was 20/21 and out there for a year. Just maybe the best year of my life.