Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

What moves are you considering for 2022?

2

Comments

  • @JonGaltIII,

    Thanks for the kind words!
  • just an odd fyi --- DSTL (like CAPE) is 'blocked' at ML, cannot be bought, at least in my accounts (retirement and brokerage)
  • @davidmoran: COWZ also uses free cash flow as the primary criterion to select the 100 stocks in its portfolio. DSTL and it are pretty well matched over a 2-yr period, while COWZ has done better this year.
  • edited December 2021
    My portfolio's value is near its all-time high.
    Due to age and circumstances, my primary strategic goal is to reduce equity risk.
    A secondary goal is to decrease interest-rate risk.
    Approximately 25% of the portfolio is currently allocated to fixed-income.
    My target fixed-income allocation is 30%.

    Today I executed the following transactions in my 401(k):
    Exchanged some of Vanguard 500 (CIT) for Wells Fargo Stable Value Fund
    Exchanged all of DODIX for Wells Fargo Stable Value Fund

    Next week I'll execute several trades in my Roth IRA to complete the rebalancing process.
  • Derf said:

    @gmarceau : By loaded up ,from your post, more than 5% of your portfolio ?
    I bought a toe hold , less than 1% of my portfolio in GPGEX. It's nice to get in on the ground floor, but some worthy question have been ask about this new addition by the MFO community . The limited AUM was good news to hear.

    Enjoy the ride, Derf

    Hi Derf, yes much more than 5%, but the fund will probably have similar performance to the global reach, but the small asset base was the most attractive part.

    The one concern I had was that it’s a sort of a best ideas fund and those never become the top performer in any fund company’s roster.

    I saw it as a cheaper small micro global option, low AUM, set and forget. They’re growing the next generation at GP, so wouldn’t mind taking my mind off of a lot of my different funds.
  • Thank you for reply @gmarceau . Good investing to you & GP.
  • Curious to how GPGEX is invested...specifics on region/countres, market cap, sectors? Nothing on M* since its new and the GP website has very little info. I own ARTJX so I want to compare
  • I appreciate the suggestions on funds and will creat a watchlist to track them. I am currently working on an article (Seeking Alpha) on this topic which I expect to post Sunday. The themes for 2022 are high valuations, market concentration, Inflation, COVID, Fed tapering, rising rates, and geopolitical risk. I expect P/E compression and volatility.

    I have shifted part of my tactical sleeve to consumer goods (staples, defensive) and utilities. I look for what has done well during the late stage of the business cycle and normalization. Health care and real estate typically do well but are already high. I like SPLV as a simple one stop fund.

  • While I don’t know what moves I may make for 2022, I have done a cursory review of what happened to my portfolio last year. Global growth stunk up the joint with MGGPX the worst offender with APFDX and ARTRX taking nose dives in the last few months of the year. Global allocation, as in RPGAX, was also a drag. Our biggest domestic growth fund, BIAWX, did fine, but trailed SPYG. TIEIX, the biggest position in the retirement account, outperformed the Nasdaq while rising 23%. EM was a bad joke, represented by ARTYX, who was shown the door a while back. Foreign large growth, PWJZX, was very volatile; up 13%, it failed to return even half of the S&P 500. I have more work to do on this long holiday weekend.
  • For sure, I am looking forward to your article in Seeking Alpha. I too is rebalancing $ among the defensive sectors from real estate and health care to utilities. I also will focus more on the total return from dividend funds/ETFs than bonds since not many bonds fared well in 2021.
  • I’m also looking forward to reading @lynnbolin2021 . In fact I was reading his SA stories from last year including his best funds to own in 2021 to see how they fared. My favorite post of his was definitely … the Best No Load Funds at Fidelity. Some great posts and discussions came from that article. Here’s all of his on SA. https://seekingalpha.com/author/charles-bolin#regular_articles

    I know a lot is shared in fixed income and the like, but I appreciate the non retiree articles the most. I’m currently evaluating my small caps and International/Global funds these days. Always appreciate his articles and his use of MFO to design superior lists.

  • @Sven. Please post what you are leaning towards for Utilities ? Looking forward to reading the net results decisions of the re- balancing .
  • edited January 1
    @BenWP - Thank you for the interesting write-up on last year’s gems and clunkers. Nothing I owned “stunk up the joint” unless you count TMSRX - which couldn’t seem to get out of its own way. It’s been demoted from a 45-50% weighting inside my Alternative sleeve to a less impactful 25% at present. My 30% + allocation to fixed income didn’t shine - and surely hasn’t kept pace with inflation. But I expected that. In fact, I thought it would be worse. DODIX and DODLX both finished the year with losses under 1%. I will continue to hold both investment grade and more speculative grades of fixed income due to tolerance level and age.

    Agree with you … I expected more from RPGAX.
  • edited January 1
    Many fixed-income investments will face a very challenging environment in 2022.
    Starting bond yields are low and the Fed will cease QE before increasing short-term rates probably two or three times. Considering the market environment, I exchanged DODIX for the Stable Value Fund available in my 401(k). DODIX is a fine fund and I plan to reestablish a position at a later date.
  • +1 hank One of my former major holdings MERFX tried to outperform TMSRX on the downside...and failed , losing 0.19 ! I may have to use the Three Stooges to cover for MERFX - ADANX (which flatlined) ARBFX and BALPX. VARAX has a sales charge at Fidelity, naturally, so that's out ! I have some chronic pain issues or otherwise I would maintain a thread on event-driven funds.
  • Entering 2022 portfolio positioned as:

    TANDX (Castle Tandem Fund)
    ARTTX (Artisan Focus Fund)
    FMSDX (Fidelity Multi Asset Income Fund)
    PVCMX (Palm Valley Capital Fund)
    5 YR CDs laddered (3.25-3.55%)
    MMmkt (FDIC insured)
    IBonds - max amount

    Do like Tandem, you can look up archives at tandemadvisors.com, ~30% in cash, invests in companies that can grow, their Large Cap portfolio which is run similar to TANDX..."seeks to produce superior risk-adjusted returns, while minimizing volatility over a complete market cycle. Tandem’s investment philosophy requires that portfolio companies consistently grow both earnings and dividends. LCC differs from Tandem’s other strategies in that dividends must be paid to be included in LCC. Tandem believes dividend growth justified by earnings growth should allow stocks to perform well over time regardless of economic or market conditions. A proprietary semi-quantitative investment methodology is utilized to produce returns that experience less volatility than, and correlation to, the broader market."

    TANDX's lower volatility keeps me from janking in and out of the fund, regardless of what noise is in the markets that day.

    Like ARTTX as there is a strong thought of mine that there is NO WAY that Powell is going to raise rates...so I hold this fund...keep in mind during this recent Santa Claus rally, $126B was pumped in by Powell...ya really think he is concerned about inflation...jawboning or clown show? Dunno. This fund has proactive risk managment and invests in profitable companies with strong forecasted earnings growth.

    PVCMX holds a lot of cash but has shown during a "flush/drawdown" they know what to do and will act.

    Here's to a great, healthy, properous and joyful new year to all,

    Baseball Fan
  • TANDX has a transaction fee at the 4 brokerages I checked, so I would probably buy and hold the fund as well.
  • @baseball_fan, pretty clean portfolio you got there. Do you mind sharing what percentage of total wealth (primary residence not included) is invested in the four mutual funds?
  • I enter 2022 as per below. I plan to increase positions in SFHYX, ARBIX, TRAIX, NTSX and start a position in SVARX

    Alts - 59%
    US Stocks - 18%
    US Bonds - 11%
    Intl Stocks - 5%
    Intl Bonds - 2%
    Cash - 5%

    Positions I hold in decreasing order of position size are

    PSLDX
    TRLGX
    JHEQX
    TRAIX
    I- bonds
    NTSX
    70/30 Domestic/Intl Blend Fund in 529 Account
    Guaranteed Tuition Fund
    BRUFX
    GISYX
    ARBIX
    SFHYX
    COMB
    MAFIX
    NICHX
    MFAIX
    APFDX
    VITSX
    BLNDX


  • From the January commentary SEIX and OVB look interesting-I'll probably throw some coins there way, and sell as necessary.
  • edited January 1
    carew388 said:

    TANDX has a transaction fee at the 4 brokerages I checked, so I would probably buy and hold the fund as well.

    TANDX portfolio manager's name is John CAREW. Hmmmmm.....


    I'm adding to WBALX in 2022, come what may.

    Fascinated by PVCMX, which I had toyed with - is it really still over 80% in cash? A super safety small cap play, great if you expect a massive "PE Compression" event ahead. You do pay 1.3% for their market timing selectivity.

  • PVCMX YTD 3.74 % Not to bad for 80% in cash !
  • @BaluBalu,

    TANDX, ~10%
    ARTTX, ~5%
    FMSDX, ~5%
    PVCMX, ~5%

    I'm uber conservative...recognizing I have taken on "risk" by being way conservative past several years...still working, I didn't like being idle as I was "semi-retired" for ~ 18months...so live below my means.

    Do recognize I've been ok with this during the past several years but past year have taken it on the chin with "silent losses"...due to severe inflation which appears to be getting worse as we head into new year (grocery store, heating bill, conversations with supply chain/vendor mgr's...many taking double digit increases at the beginning on 2022)

    Best,

    Baseball Fan
  • @Baseball_Fan:

    Re FMSDX - Lipper breaks down its holdings this way:

    50% Stocks

    25% Other

    24% Bonds

    2% Cash

    Would you happen to know what the 25% “other” is invested in? Thanks.
  • hank said:

    @Baseball_Fan:

    Re FMSDX - Lipper breaks down its holdings this way:

    50% Stocks

    25% Other

    24% Bonds

    2% Cash

    Would you happen to know what the 25% “other” is invested in? Thanks.

    Per Fidelity:

    FMSDX
    As of 11-30-2021:
    Portfolio Weight
    Equities ex. Preferred Stock 46.54%
    U.S. Treasury & Government Related Securities 17.75%
    Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds 0.24%
    Mortgage Backed Securities 0.01%
    High-Yield Investments 14.70%
    Bank Loans 6.23%
    Convertibles 6.78%
    Preferred Stock 4.52%
    Emerging-Markets Debt 3.26%
    Cash & Net Other Assets -0.03%

  • edited January 2
    Thanks @JD_co

    Looks like investment grade credit (bonds and cash) are under 20% of total fund holdings.
  • As a multi-asset fund, FMSDX includes stocks, bonds and alternatives. Much of alternatives ends up as "Other".

    Definition of "Other" varies by sites - whatever doesn't cleanly fit their categories of stocks and bonds.

    Fido lumps all non-equity for FMSDX into inv-grade and non-inv-grade, and shows very little "Others".

    Lipper, M* etc include in the "Other" preferreds, convertibles, real estate, commodities, futures, options, etc. Much of "Other" for FMSDX is preferreds and convertibles.
  • edited January 16
    @Newgirl, to clarify my earlier statement, we moved more equity to defensive sectors such as health care and utility. Traditionally, these sectors plus consumer staples are considered defensive while the other sectors are considered cycincal. This is a more of a tactical move to better position our portfolios in 2022. We have done well in 2020 when we bought REIT and energy when they were down over 30% due to the lockdown and they have since fully recovered plus another 30-40% in 2021, Now it is time to rotate to elsewhere.
  • Roy
    edited January 2
    Our KISS of a portfolio ended the year with 80% in PRWCX/TRAIX and 20% in AKREX. So, not a bad year with low to mid 70's exposure to equities by year end.

    Our average age is 56 and probably have been on the light side of equities for our age the past 15 years since PRWCX has dominated our investments, but we are okay with that. We'll keep saving, but probably have enough saved for retirement already, just need to keep growing it at a modest rate for the next handful of years. Grateful to be debt free.

    Have decided equity exposure is a bit higher than preferred at this point and am in the process of reducing AKREX and moving some of the proceeds into TRAIX and PRFRX for now which is also holding some inheritance monies my wife received recently from her folk's estate. Planning for our equity exposure to be between 65-70% when done rebalancing.
  • Just executed: took 15% of my bonds and switched them from RPSIX (covers the bond waterfront) to PRFRX (bank loans.)
Sign In or Register to comment.