Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
In anticipation of these orders coming fast and soon, I figured we have a thread for members to post links to those orders and to articles discussing those orders. Please keep politics and emotions out and focus on economic and investing implications (both short term and long term) while posting in this thread.
Information is the primary focus of this thread to help members save time in finding the info.
I am perfectly fine if no one posts in this thread and it dies before it starts but I absolutely prefer no political discussion from posters in this thread. I am not looking for discussion from posters but you are free to discuss if that helps you expand your understanding but do not use the thread as a means for activism. If still in doubt, ask yourself what would YBB post.
Unfortunately, I think @JD_co & @Observent1 are correct. Better in OT. The real problem is the country is fractured politically, and in many ways socially as well, to the point where rational discussion of a President’s policies (either party) is near impossible. A pox on both our houses.
However, it shouldn’t be hard to post investment threads on things like energy, crypto, fiscal policy & interest rates. And under these the views / policies prominent statesmen politicians may legitimately appear.
My take - Tariff on China import - 20-60% on few categories - to force them to reduce the trade deficit - give up 50% ownership in Tik-Tok, import crude/NG from US instead of Iran - dual purpose to bankrupt Iran so their ambition for nuclear weapon goes down the drain. China currency will weaken due to tariff so the US cost may not change much due to tariff. US companies operating in China - revenue will be hit due to currency weakness but profit stays due to corporate tax relief.
Futures were swinging around quite a bit this evening, nothing major yet.
Glad they seem to be looking at *targeted* tariffs and not a blanket one for everything as he was fantasizing about earlier, which would destroy the economy. But the retaliations will come, I'm sure.
tariffs amount to a tax on domestic consumption and a subsidy to domestic production.
And they don't balance out. Consumers lose more than domestic producers and the government (tariff revenue) gain. Economists call this deadweight loss.
tariffs can either raise money [taxing imports] or protect American jobs [reducing imports] but not fully do both at once.
This is something everyone understands. We place a high tax on cigarettes to discourage consumption, though it also does raise some revenue (from the remaining consumers). Likewise, congestion pricing has the conflicting objectives of reducing traffic and raising revenue (from the remaining drivers).
I would be negligent to take my boat out when gale warnings are posted and I would be a fool to invest while ignoring shock and awe warning are likewise posted. I don’t see how one can think about investing while ignoring the political situation in 2025.
If it costs more for a vehicle built in Japan, Mexico, Canada or China (due to tariffs), won’t companies who build similar vehicles domestically just raise their prices to compete? Why would domestic manufacturers not raise their prices to whatever the market will bear? Sounds like a good deal for everybody except the consumer.
I subscribe to Bloomberg. The screen is really lighting-up tonight. They’re having trouble keeping up with all the executive (whatever’s). So, stopped by the board for its calming effect.
If it costs more for a vehicle built in Japan or China (due to tariffs), won’t companies who build similar vehicles domestically just raise their prices to compete? Why would domestic manufacturers not raise their prices to whatever the market will bear?
That logic would only work if ... IF people were willing to pay 10-25-?? percent more for a certain car over say 1-2 quarters based on sales volume. Otherwise, the tariffed company's vehicle won't look competitive unless they chose not to pass the costs to the consumer, meaning they will lose money on each sale. I don't see vehicle companies rushing to jack up their prices to be more competitive with a higher-priced car.
That's how the USUAL logic works. But we're in crazytown now, so who knows......
Ending birthright citizenship The order: Along with a slew of immigration-focused orders, Trump is targeting automatic citizenship for US-born children of immigrants in the country illegally, to begin 30 days from today.
Leaving the World Health Organization The order: Trump signed an order to have the US exit the World Health Organization (WHO).
Renaming the Gulf of Mexico The order: Trump ordered two name changes: the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska’s Mount Denali.
Revoking electric vehicle targets The order: Trump revoked a non-binding executive order signed by Biden aimed at making half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 electric.
Reclassifying federal employees, making them easier to fire The order: Trump’s executive order reclassified thousands of federal employees as political hires, making it much easier for them to be fired.
Declaring a national energy emergency The order: Trump declared a national energy emergency as part of a barrage of pro-fossil fuel actions and efforts to “unleash” already booming US energy production that included also rolling back restrictions in drilling in Alaska and undoing a pause on gas exports.
Creating a policy recognizing only two genders The order: Trump signed an order to remove “gender ideology guidance” from federal government communication, policies and forms. The order makes it official policy that there are “only two genders, male and female”.
Pausing the TikTok ban The order: Trump signed an executive order temporarily delaying the enforcement of a federal ban on TikTok for at least 75 days.
Rescinding 78 Biden-era executive actions The order: Trump ordered 78 Biden-era executive actions to be rescinded, including at least a dozen measures supporting racial equity and combating discrimination against gay and transgender people.
Declaring a national border emergency The order: Trump signed an order at the White House declaring an emergency at the southern US border, along with several other immigration-related policies.
Issuing pardons for January 6 defendants The order: Trump issued pardons for offenders and commutations related to the January 6 attack on the Capitol. He will direct the Department of Justice to dismiss cases currently in progress.
Withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement The order: Trump issued executive action withdrawing the US from the 2015 Paris agreement, along with a letter informing the United Nations of the decision.
Federal Work Force • Freeze federal hiring, except for members of the military or “positions related to immigration enforcement, national security, or public safety.”
• Restore a category of federal workers known as Schedule F, which would lack the same job protections enjoyed by career civil servants.
• Halt new federal rules from going into effect before Trump administration appointees can review them.
• Review the investigative actions of the Biden administration, “to correct past misconduct by the federal government related to the weaponization of law enforcement and the weaponization of the intelligence community.”
• Grant top secret security clearances to White House staff without going through traditional vetting procedures.
• End remote work policies and order federal workers back to the office full time.
Immigration and the Border • Bar asylum for people newly arriving at the southern border.
• Move to end birthright citizenship, which is guaranteed by the 14th Amendment, for the children of undocumented immigrants. The president cannot change the Constitution on his own, so it is not yet clear how Mr. Trump plans to withhold the benefits of citizenship to a group of people born in the United States. Any move is all but certain to be challenged in court.
• Suspend the Refugee Admissions Program “until such time as the further entry into the United States of refugees aligns with the interests of the United States.”
• Declare migrant crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border to be a national emergency, allowing Mr. Trump to unilaterally unlock federal funding for border wall construction, without approval from Congress, for stricter enforcement efforts.
• Resume a policy requiring people seeking asylum to wait in Mexico while an immigration judge considers their cases.
• Consider designating cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations.”
Gender and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Initiatives • Terminate D.E.I. programs across the federal government.
• Recognize two sexes: male and female.
• Remove protections for transgender people in federal prisons.
Tariffs and Trade • Direct federal agencies to begin an investigation into trade practices, including persistent trade deficits and unfair currency practices, as well as examine flows of migrants and drugs from Canada, China and Mexico to the United States.
• Assess China’s compliance with a trade deal Mr. Trump signed in 2020, as well as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Trump signed in 2020 to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.
• Order the government to assess the feasibility of creating an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs and duties.
• Carry out a full review of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing base to assess whether further national security-related tariffs are warranted.
Energy and the Environment • Withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, the pact among almost all nations to fight climate change.
• Declare a national energy emergency, a first in U.S. history, which could unlock new powers to suspend certain environmental rules or expedite permitting of certain mining projects.powers to suspend certain environmental rules or expedite permitting of certain mining projects.
• Attempt to reverse Mr. Biden’s ban on offshore drilling for 625 million acres of federal waters.
• Begin the repeal of Biden-era regulations on tailpipe pollution from cars and light trucks, which have encouraged automakers to manufacture more electric vehicles.
• Roll back energy-efficiency regulations for dishwashers, shower heads and gas stoves.
• Open the Alaska wilderness to more oil and gas drilling.
• Restart reviews of new export terminals for liquefied natural gas, something the Biden administration had paused.
• Halt the leasing of federal waters for offshore wind farms.
• Eliminate environmental justice programs across the government, which are aimed at protecting poor communities from excess pollution.
• Review all federal regulations that impose an “undue burden” on the development or use of a variety of energy sources, particularly coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear power, hydropower and biofuels.
TikTok ban • Consult federal agencies on any national security risks posed by the social media platform, then “pursue a resolution that protects national security while saving a platform used by 170 million Americans.” Mr. Trump ordered his attorney general not to enforce a law that banned the site for 75 days to give the Trump administration “an opportunity to determine the appropriate course forward.”
Other • Withdraw from the World Health Organization.
• Rename Mount Denali and the Gulf of Mexico.
• Ensure that states carrying out the death penalty have a “sufficient supply” of lethal injection drugs.
• Fly the American flag at full-staff on Monday and on future Inauguration Days.
• Implement the Department of Government Efficiency, the Elon Musk-led cost-cutting initiative.
• Revoke security clearances for 51 signers of a letter suggesting that the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop could be Russian disinformation.
tariffs amount to a tax on domestic consumption and a subsidy to domestic production.
And they don't balance out. Consumers lose more than domestic producers and the government (tariff revenue) gain. Economists call this deadweight loss.
tariffs can either raise money [taxing imports] or protect American jobs [reducing imports] but not fully do both at once.
This is something everyone understands. We place a high tax on cigarettes to discourage consumption, though it also does raise some revenue (from the remaining consumers). Likewise, congestion pricing has the conflicting objectives of reducing traffic and raising revenue (from the remaining drivers).
Specialist thanks to Joe for his listing and short summaries which helped me get caught up.
I sold XLE (from trading account) on Friday in anticipation of today’s order. Oil services investment may be better instead. I also changed portfolio on the margin for drop in yields and thus dollar, though this is a tougher call for me. It is going to be a wild Market Monday for my portfolio. RIVN is probably going to get hit.
David, NYT articles are behind paywall for me. If you are able to, pl include / share your short summary.
I’ll try and get a gift share. Meanwhile, if you can afford to invest, get a damn subscription to the nytimes. It’s 2025 and the country is in major crisis. FFS.
That market distortions don't impact only one side in a transaction, but rather affects all parties? Yes, economic inefficiencies hurt everyone.
He really doesn't get into tit-for-tat tariffs, more like mentioning it in passing. For an example of how such tariffs (in response to subsidies) can be counterproductive, just look at Boeing/Airbus
The United States and European Union said Tuesday [June 15, 2021] they have resolved a 17-year-long fight over aircraft subsidies, agreeing to suspend tariffs for five years stemming from the Boeing-Airbus dispute. ... “Anything that levels the playing field in this highly competitive industry and avoids this terrible lose-lose proposition of tariffs across the Atlantic or across any borders for that matter is good,” said Airbus’ Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer during a media call on Tuesday. “You don’t need to take that from Airbus ... Just ask our customers.” ... The EU-U.S. relationship hit a low during the previous White House administration with then-President Donald Trump accusing the EU of being worse than China with its trade practices.
Trump imposed duties worth $7.5 billion on European products after the World Trade Organization ruled that the EU had given unfair subsidies to Airbus.
Shortly afterward the EU imposed tariffs worth $4 billion on U.S. products off the back of another WTO ruling that said the U.S. had granted illegal aid to Boeing.
David, NYT articles are behind paywall for me. If you are able to, pl include / share your short summary.
I’ll try and get a gift share. Meanwhile, if you can afford to invest, get a damn subscription to the nytimes. It’s 2025 and the country is in major crisis. FFS.
I am happy to send a donation to whoever you wish. Feel free to send me the name and website.
You do not need to share the summary for me. You can ignore my request. My main objective was to let readers know the article is behind a paywall.
I sold XLE (from trading account) on Friday in anticipation of today’s order. Oil services investment may be better instead. I also changed portfolio on the margin for drop in yields and thus dollar, though this is a tougher call for me. It is going to be a wild Market Monday for my portfolio. RIVN is probably going to get hit.
I'll be watching Tues. futures. I expect ET will do well going forward. But it had been doing well, already. "America First" is so short-sighted. I have found 2 or 3 Exec Orders that make sense. Whitehouse.gov.
ET is a good investment, with its CEO buying it shares hand over fist. My not buying this was one of my mental lapses, aided by the mental friction of K-1s. Currently, all my mid-stream is through PDX, a CEF - already ran up and not my recommendation at this time.
Comments
It will be exceeding difficult to exclude politics from this discussion.
I suggest you move this thread to Off-Topic.
However, it shouldn’t be hard to post investment threads on things like energy, crypto, fiscal policy & interest rates. And under these the views / policies prominent
statesmenpoliticians may legitimately appear.Just my 3-cents.
I know the following is where I normally start. Are the executive orders available anywhere else sooner?
https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/20/opinion/trump-tariffs-trade.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/
Futures were swinging around quite a bit this evening, nothing major yet.
Glad they seem to be looking at *targeted* tariffs and not a blanket one for everything as he was fantasizing about earlier, which would destroy the economy. But the retaliations will come, I'm sure.
And they don't balance out. Consumers lose more than domestic producers and the government (tariff revenue) gain. Economists call this deadweight loss.
Here's an economics textbook explanation of tariffs and deadweight losses. See Figure 4.9c.
https://pressbooks.bccampus.ca/uvicecon103/chapter/4-7-tariffs/
tariffs can either raise money [taxing imports] or protect American jobs [reducing imports] but not fully do both at once.
This is something everyone understands. We place a high tax on cigarettes to discourage consumption, though it also does raise some revenue (from the remaining consumers). Likewise, congestion pricing has the conflicting objectives of reducing traffic and raising revenue (from the remaining drivers).
@msf- You sure about that? I really don't think that our wonderful new chief executive does...
I subscribe to Bloomberg. The screen is really lighting-up tonight. They’re having trouble keeping up with all the executive (whatever’s). So, stopped by the board for its calming effect.
That's how the USUAL logic works. But we're in crazytown now, so who knows......
@BaluBalu- Well, you asked. You sure this is a good idea?
Federal Work Force
• Freeze federal hiring, except for members of the military or “positions related to immigration enforcement, national security, or public safety.”
• Restore a category of federal workers known as Schedule F, which would lack the same job protections enjoyed by career civil servants.
• Halt new federal rules from going into effect before Trump administration appointees can review them.
• Review the investigative actions of the Biden administration, “to correct past misconduct by the federal government related to the weaponization of law enforcement and the weaponization of the intelligence community.”
• Grant top secret security clearances to White House staff without going through traditional vetting procedures.
• End remote work policies and order federal workers back to the office full time.
Immigration and the Border
• Bar asylum for people newly arriving at the southern border.
• Move to end birthright citizenship, which is guaranteed by the 14th Amendment, for the children of undocumented immigrants. The president cannot change the Constitution on his own, so it is not yet clear how Mr. Trump plans to withhold the benefits of citizenship to a group of people born in the United States. Any move is all but certain to be challenged in court.
• Suspend the Refugee Admissions Program “until such time as the further entry into the United States of refugees aligns with the interests of the United States.”
• Declare migrant crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border to be a national emergency, allowing Mr. Trump to unilaterally unlock federal funding for border wall construction, without approval from Congress, for stricter enforcement efforts.
• Resume a policy requiring people seeking asylum to wait in Mexico while an immigration judge considers their cases.
• Consider designating cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations.”
Gender and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Initiatives
• Terminate D.E.I. programs across the federal government.
• Recognize two sexes: male and female.
• Remove protections for transgender people in federal prisons.
Tariffs and Trade
• Direct federal agencies to begin an investigation into trade practices, including persistent trade deficits and unfair currency practices, as well as examine flows of migrants and drugs from Canada, China and Mexico to the United States.
• Assess China’s compliance with a trade deal Mr. Trump signed in 2020, as well as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Trump signed in 2020 to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.
• Order the government to assess the feasibility of creating an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs and duties.
• Carry out a full review of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing base to assess whether further national security-related tariffs are warranted.
Energy and the Environment
• Withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, the pact among almost all nations to fight climate change.
• Declare a national energy emergency, a first in U.S. history, which could unlock new powers to suspend certain environmental rules or expedite permitting of certain mining projects.powers to suspend certain environmental rules or expedite permitting of certain mining projects.
• Attempt to reverse Mr. Biden’s ban on offshore drilling for 625 million acres of federal waters.
• Begin the repeal of Biden-era regulations on tailpipe pollution from cars and light trucks, which have encouraged automakers to manufacture more electric vehicles.
• Roll back energy-efficiency regulations for dishwashers, shower heads and gas stoves.
• Open the Alaska wilderness to more oil and gas drilling.
• Restart reviews of new export terminals for liquefied natural gas, something the Biden administration had paused.
• Halt the leasing of federal waters for offshore wind farms.
• Eliminate environmental justice programs across the government, which are aimed at protecting poor communities from excess pollution.
• Review all federal regulations that impose an “undue burden” on the development or use of a variety of energy sources, particularly coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear power, hydropower and biofuels.
TikTok ban
• Consult federal agencies on any national security risks posed by the social media platform, then “pursue a resolution that protects national security while saving a platform used by 170 million Americans.” Mr. Trump ordered his attorney general not to enforce a law that banned the site for 75 days to give the Trump administration “an opportunity to determine the appropriate course forward.”
Other
• Withdraw from the World Health Organization.
• Rename Mount Denali and the Gulf of Mexico.
• Ensure that states carrying out the death penalty have a “sufficient supply” of lethal injection drugs.
• Fly the American flag at full-staff on Monday and on future Inauguration Days.
• Implement the Department of Government Efficiency, the Elon Musk-led cost-cutting initiative.
• Revoke security clearances for 51 signers of a letter suggesting that the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop could be Russian disinformation.
So you read Coy’s complex arg or not ?
Hopefully all posters are treating each other with respect and are considerate and appreciative of others’ time and effort. Thanks.
Specialist thanks to Joe for his listing and short summaries which helped me get caught up.
I sold XLE (from trading account) on Friday in anticipation of today’s order. Oil services investment may be better instead. I also changed portfolio on the margin for drop in yields and thus dollar, though this is a tougher call for me. It is going to be a wild Market Monday for my portfolio. RIVN is probably going to get hit.
That market distortions don't impact only one side in a transaction, but rather affects all parties? Yes, economic inefficiencies hurt everyone.
He really doesn't get into tit-for-tat tariffs, more like mentioning it in passing. For an example of how such tariffs (in response to subsidies) can be counterproductive, just look at Boeing/Airbus https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/us-and-eu-truce-boeing-airbus-dispute.html
See also, US orange juice and steel will be on Canada’s list for retaliation if Trump imposes tariffs
https://apnews.com/article/canada-trump-tariffs-orange-juice-trade-deficit-d388d642c89421c136a4821351e91d84
You do not need to share the summary for me. You can ignore my request. My main objective was to let readers know the article is behind a paywall.
Here ya go, hopefully
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/20/opinion/trump-tariffs-trade.html?unlocked_article_code=1.q04.kVWH.dRwJR9xMJ_RO&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
The whole thing is a high-level tit-tat analysis, w a couple links to deeper delves
I sold XLE (from trading account) on Friday in anticipation of today’s order. Oil services investment may be better instead. I also changed portfolio on the margin for drop in yields and thus dollar, though this is a tougher call for me. It is going to be a wild Market Monday for my portfolio. RIVN is probably going to get hit.
I'll be watching Tues. futures. I expect ET will do well going forward. But it had been doing well, already. "America First" is so short-sighted. I have found 2 or 3 Exec Orders that make sense. Whitehouse.gov.