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@davidrmoran: Also like Krugman's way of thinking. Surprised that you were able to link that without subscription wall. Yes, he made a good case for eventual reversion to systemic low-inflation. If so, at some point purchase of fairly high yield long-term bonds might be a good play.
@ Old _Joe. Thinking the same thing,,,, please let me know when that “ some point” may be. So far I have avoided the bond fund crash but have been way too impatient on my bond/ CD purchases. I am counting on you to nail this.
The Fed's next 2 meetings take us through Nov. 2 and then Dec. 14th. I'm assuming those are the only 2 hikes that would/could be greater than 25 bp in size.
And then we get a few smaller 25 bp hikes in early 2023.
With those assumptions, as the New Year (JAN 2023) approaches it seems like that would be an OK time to start buying bonds. I may well end up being a few months early, but there is no perfect plan. And I hate being late to a party.
HY bonds? gotcha covered already. Rode that baby down right into the shit. Not much of a silver lining to be found, other than to recall the rather big slug i lately bought at a much better price. And the divs get reinvested at a lower price. TUHYX. https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/TUHYX/opinion
@davidrmoran- Hello there- yes, but I subscribe to the NYT web version, so that isn't surprising. I also automatically get Krugman's commentary via email, and had read that article earlier today.
The key insight is that investment spending is driven in large part by growth — growth in the number of workers and in technological progress. A growing labor force needs more office space, more houses, and so on; a stagnant work force only needs to replace structures and equipment as they wear out. Technological progress can also contribute to investment by making it worthwhile to replace outmoded capital goods, and also by making people richer so they can demand more living space, and so on; if technological progress slows down, investment spending tends to fall. Since the 1990s, both of these drivers of investment lost a lot of their momentum.
What does this say about America's anti-immigrant sentiment currently? I imagine in the past all of that immigration kept the growth ball rolling.
The key insight is that investment spending is driven in large part by growth — growth in the number of workers and in technological progress. A growing labor force needs more office space, more houses, and so on; a stagnant work force only needs to replace structures and equipment as they wear out. Technological progress can also contribute to investment by making it worthwhile to replace outmoded capital goods, and also by making people richer so they can demand more living space, and so on; if technological progress slows down, investment spending tends to fall. Since the 1990s, both of these drivers of investment lost a lot of their momentum.
What does this say about America's anti-immigrant sentiment currently? I imagine in the past all of that immigration kept the growth ball rolling.
...A political turn to the conversation. So long as immigrants blend into the "melting pot," that's a good thing. There needs to be a commitment to the society the immigrant is joining. I know a lot of old folks, some still living, who came from Ireland, Poland, Italy, all over Europe. Maybe they themselves never became fluent in English, but they could manage and be understood. And they embraced the new possibilities afforded to them. ....... Flipping the page to the current situation in Europe: there are just too many coming, too soon. And a great many are gaming the system over there. (Like the fellow I read about from Libya or one of the other North African countries: he deliberately mailed his passport to relatives in France, so it would be there for him. But upon arrival on European shores, he claimed to have no ID and expected to be granted entry as a refugee. He got to Spain, and with no border controls WITHIN Europe, he reached France in due course. Reunited with extended family AND his very own passport.) ....A great number of new arrivals ghetto-ize themselves, and the governments have failed to mainstream them. Many of them live by social values that actually CLASH with civilized EUROPEAN norms: like the way men deal with women, for instance. (Yes, yes, yes. Men have exploited women forever. I'm not talking about that. This is about embedded cultural expectations: "If I want a woman, I TAKE her.")
And on and on. And it's killing Europe as a cohesive entity.
Many of them live by social values that actually CLASH with civilized EUROPEAN norms
Your remark reminds me of the old story of when someone asked Gandhi what he thought of Western civilization, he responded, “I think it would be a good idea.” The history of colonization by Europe of many of the countries refugees are fleeing has been the reason in a number of cases why they have had to flee. This is especially true in the U.S. with regard to many of the refugees at the Southern border from places like Guatemala and El Salvador, countries our CIA had covertly and sometimes overtly destabilized and installed puppet regimes that ultimately turned murderous. Guatemala has a particularly ugly history with regard to the CIA and believe it or not, our banana industry there. As for ghettos, I don’t think there’s an immigrant population in the world whose first generation didn’t live in them. It is the second and third generations who assimilate. In the U.S., the Irish and Italians once lived in them and had their own troubles not so different from the ones you describe today. See the Scorsese film Gangs of New York to get a taste of what that was like. Regardless, immigrants of all sorts have long been a vital engine of economic growth in the U.S. It’s hard to imagine our economy continuing to grow without them.
@LewisBraham: valid points, but I don't follow your non-sequitur. You are, I don't mind admitting, way too woke for me. Is there anyone for whom Ghandi is NOT a hero?
I'm not talking about the colonial times in the past. i'm talking about the present and the future. Go ahead and blame western civilization and culture for what's wrong, everywhere. I don't have to swallow it. The colonizers are gone. Local people are in control now. Algeria better off? Libya? Egypt? Syria? Palestine? ” The history of colonization by Europe of many of the countries refugees are fleeing has been the reason in a number of cases why they have had to flee..."
Well, I was primarily referring to Europe, anyhow. Your focus is the USA. fair enough.
There are ghettos and then there are ghettos. I don't mean Warsaw under the Nazis. And folks from the old country can very well be expected to gather and live in the same neighborhoods. When foreign arrivals ghetto-ize themselves because they REJECT the values and systems of their host-country, that sucks. and it occurs to me that we are talking past each other, as well.
@Crash. My grandfather left Bessarabia (look it up) to escape pogroms in 1905. Without exception every offspring that followed became a professional or business owner. Going all the way to the great grandchildren. Immigrants add to this country. Pretty simple.
@Crash. My grandfather left Bessarabia (look it up) to escape pogroms in 1905. Without exception every offspring that followed became a professional or business owner. Going all the way to the great grandchildren. Immigrants add to this country. Pretty simple.
@Crash- Have you by any chance asked any of the indigenous Hawaiians how they feel about the rest of us?
I was sitting on the bus, minding my own business the other day. A fellow who is obviously native Hawaiian, looked out the window at noone and started yelling for (someone? Anyone?) to "eat it. Just eat it." Damn Haole!!!!! Go back to the mainland!"
Then he looked at ME, and did the same thing. I smiled and said: "I love you, too."..... He continued. I finally turned and asked him what was wrong today? Did he get his period or something else? Then my stop came, and I got off.
larryB's description above is the very case I'm making. Refugees need to be welcomed. Immigrants need to be welcomed. But as with an open faucet, not a firehose. Immigrants who come and reject their new home and its customs, systems and values should be dealt with. Via the legal system, immigration system or however. Preferably BEFORE they are permitted free entry, to roam around and sometimes even cause havoc and mayhem.
"Immigrants who come and reject their new home and its customs, systems and values should be dealt with. Via the legal system, immigration system or however. Preferably BEFORE they are permitted free entry, to roam around and sometimes even cause havoc and mayhem."
@Crash- Yes, I agree. The indigenous Hawaiians really missed the boat on that. Not to mention the indigenous "Americans", also big losers.
Seems like your rule set only starts after the immigrant Europeans overwhelmed and throttled the indigenous folks. Pretty cool if you're the folks making the rules.
"Immigrants who come and reject their new home and its customs, systems and values should be dealt with. Via the legal system, immigration system or however. Preferably BEFORE they are permitted free entry, to roam around and sometimes even cause havoc and mayhem."
@Crash- Yes, I agree. The indigenous Hawaiians really missed the boat on that. Not to mention the indigenous "Americans", also big losers.
Seems like your rule set only starts after the immigrant Europeans overwhelmed and throttled the indigenous folks. Pretty cool if you're the folks making the rules.
@Old_Joe Sarcasm duly noted. With a smile, I offer this: "fuck you very much." Is there a point at which guilt over past misdeeds can be agreed upon, admitted, and then we can deal with PRESENT, CURRENT, CONTEMPORARY REALITY? Or shall we all spend all our time in a circle confessing to one another how guilty we feel for being who we are? Guilty for stuff we never did? Guilty over a legacy we can't control? ..... But we CAN control who's allowed to enter country X, and who's not. It's not being handled well at all.
I grew up Irish and Catholic. Guilt and shame were my world. I know about guilt and shame. But guilt and shame won't fix anything. There need to be decisions. Policy-making. Effective systems.
*Note: this discussion wouldn't be happening (uncle LB, above, started it) if the native countries of so many of the immigrants both to Europe and the USA were not 3rd-world places; or else riddled with poverty, violence and corruption. Did you see on the news that Haiti's administration is begging for international police/military assistance to restore social order? They have admitted that their tools, personnel, policies and procedures do not work. They are inept. Helpless. Haiti has been a failed State for a very long time. The current eventuality makes that fact as plain as the nose on one's face.
Fix those countries, and people would WANT to remain. A great many, anyhow. As I stated above, larryB made my case for me. THE END.
Comments
And then we get a few smaller 25 bp hikes in early 2023.
With those assumptions, as the New Year (JAN 2023) approaches it seems like that would be an OK time to start buying bonds. I may well end up being a few months early, but there is no perfect plan. And I hate being late to a party.
"For what it's worth." Tis my plan.
6.17th round 2
WE will see in 2 3 wks
Feds may bring the hammer down again
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/TUHYX/opinion
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20221007&instance_id=74046&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=109358&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/9b13e549-5664-54b8-8240-2beb7f203b21
(others too)
Sorry, OJ, shoulda guessed.
We'll see. Trying to decide whether to switch from IVV and VONE to CDC and COWZ. Are the latter two going to last ??
And on and on. And it's killing Europe as a cohesive entity.
As for ghettos, I don’t think there’s an immigrant population in the world whose first generation didn’t live in them. It is the second and third generations who assimilate. In the U.S., the Irish and Italians once lived in them and had their own troubles not so different from the ones you describe today. See the Scorsese film Gangs of New York to get a taste of what that was like. Regardless, immigrants of all sorts have long been a vital engine of economic growth in the U.S. It’s hard to imagine our economy continuing to grow without them.
I'm not talking about the colonial times in the past. i'm talking about the present and the future. Go ahead and blame western civilization and culture for what's wrong, everywhere. I don't have to swallow it. The colonizers are gone. Local people are in control now. Algeria better off? Libya? Egypt? Syria? Palestine?
” The history of colonization by Europe of many of the countries refugees are fleeing has been the reason in a number of cases why they have had to flee..."
Well, I was primarily referring to Europe, anyhow. Your focus is the USA. fair enough.
There are ghettos and then there are ghettos. I don't mean Warsaw under the Nazis. And folks from the old country can very well be expected to gather and live in the same neighborhoods. When foreign arrivals ghetto-ize themselves because they REJECT the values and systems of their host-country, that sucks. and it occurs to me that we are talking past each other, as well.
https://history.com/.amp/news/when-america-despised-the-irish-the-19th-centurys-refugee-crisis
You been watching the Burns Holocaust series? 'REJECT the values and systems of their host country' --- meh. A minor issue in the scheme of things.
But you're right... this thread has shape-shifted to where it really belongs in "Off-Topic" arena.
Then he looked at ME, and did the same thing. I smiled and said: "I love you, too."..... He continued. I finally turned and asked him what was wrong today? Did he get his period or something else? Then my stop came, and I got off.
Refugees need to be welcomed. Immigrants need to be welcomed. But as with an open faucet, not a firehose. Immigrants who come and reject their new home and its customs, systems and values should be dealt with. Via the legal system, immigration system or however. Preferably BEFORE they are permitted free entry, to roam around and sometimes even cause havoc and mayhem.
The current Muslim jihadist mentality does indeed pose a real, specific threat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Brussels_bombings
@davidmoran: Gandhi.
@Crash- Yes, I agree. The indigenous Hawaiians really missed the boat on that. Not to mention the indigenous "Americans", also big losers.
Seems like your rule set only starts after the immigrant Europeans overwhelmed and throttled the indigenous folks. Pretty cool if you're the folks making the rules.
I grew up Irish and Catholic. Guilt and shame were my world. I know about guilt and shame. But guilt and shame won't fix anything. There need to be decisions. Policy-making. Effective systems.
*Note: this discussion wouldn't be happening (uncle LB, above, started it) if the native countries of so many of the immigrants both to Europe and the USA were not 3rd-world places; or else riddled with poverty, violence and corruption. Did you see on the news that Haiti's administration is begging for international police/military assistance to restore social order? They have admitted that their tools, personnel, policies and procedures do not work. They are inept. Helpless. Haiti has been a failed State for a very long time. The current eventuality makes that fact as plain as the nose on one's face.
Fix those countries, and people would WANT to remain. A great many, anyhow. As I stated above, larryB made my case for me.
THE END.